Should I stay or should I go? Modelling year-round habitat suitability for fin whales in the California Current

Aim Understanding the spatial ecology of endangered species is crucial to predicting habitat use at scales relevant to conservation and management. Here, we aim to model the influence of biophysical conditions on habitat suitability for endangered fin whales Balaenoptera physalus, with a view to informing management in a heavily impacted ocean region. Location We satellite-tracked the movements of 67 fin whales through the California Current System (CCS), a dynamic eastern boundary upwelling ecosystem in the Northeast Pacific. Methods We use a multi-scale modelling framework to elucidate biophysical influences on habitat suitability for fin whales in the CCS. Using Generalised Additive Mixed Models, we quantify the influence of a suite of remotely-sensed variables on broad-scale patterns of occupancy, and present the first year-round, high-resolution predictions of seasonal habitat suitability. Further, we model the influence of contemporaneous biophysical conditions on individual-level residence times in high-use habitat. Results We present evidence of year-round habitat suitability in the southern California Current System, robust to inter-annual variability, establishing that North Pacific fin whales do not follow the canonical baleen whale migration model. Within the high-use habitat in the Southern California Bight (SCB), individual-level residency to localised areas (n=16 for >30 days; n=4 for >6 months) was associated with warm, shallow, nearshore waters (>18°C, <500m); with cool waters (14-15°C) occurring over complex seafloor topographies and convergent (sub-)mesoscale structures at the surface. Main Conclusions Biophysical conditions in the southern CCS generate productive foraging habitats that can support the fin whale population year-round and allow for extended periods of residency in localised areas. High-use habitats for fin whales are co-located with areas of intense human use, including international shipping routes and a major naval training range. Seasonal habitat suitability maps presented here could inform the management of anthropogenic threats to an endangered baleen whales in this globally significant biodiversity hotspot

A Systematic Review of the Literature on the Use of Rational Emotive Behaviour Therapy in Criminal Justice Work to Reduce Re-offending

A systematic review of the published literature from 1995 to 2007 considers the published evidence on the use of interventions employing Rational Emotive Behaviour Therapy in criminal justice efforts to reduce re-offending. Thirty-six studies are briefly described, summarised and appraised for research quality using a six point scale. Twenty-four studies were excluded from further analysis due to insufficiently rigorous or weak research design and method. Twelve studies were appraised as sufficiently robust to reliably inform the research interest. Further analysis of the studies indicated an association between negative emotional states and offending behaviour, some evidence of REBT effectiveness in treating emotional disturbance in offender populations, and mixed evidence of REBT effectiveness in reducing re-offending. It is concluded that interventions using REBT might be a promising approach for aiding criminal justice aims to reduce re-offending

Chemotactic response and adaptation dynamics in Escherichia coli

Adaptation of the chemotaxis sensory pathway of the bacterium Escherichia coli is integral for detecting chemicals over a wide range of background concentrations, ultimately allowing cells to swim towards sources of attractant and away from repellents. Its biochemical mechanism based on methylation and demethylation of chemoreceptors has long been known. Despite the importance of adaptation for cell memory and behavior, the dynamics of adaptation are difficult to reconcile with current models of precise adaptation. Here, we follow time courses of signaling in response to concentration step changes of attractant using in vivo fluorescence resonance energy transfer measurements. Specifically, we use a condensed representation of adaptation time courses for efficient evaluation of different adaptation models. To quantitatively explain the data, we finally develop a dynamic model for signaling and adaptation based on the attractant flow in the experiment, signaling by cooperative receptor complexes, and multiple layers of feedback regulation for adaptation. We experimentally confirm the predicted effects of changing the enzyme-expression level and bypassing the negative feedback for demethylation. Our data analysis suggests significant imprecision in adaptation for large additions. Furthermore, our model predicts highly regulated, ultrafast adaptation in response to removal of attractant, which may be useful for fast reorientation of the cell and noise reduction in adaptation.Comment: accepted for publication in PLoS Computational Biology; manuscript (19 pages, 5 figures) and supplementary information; added additional clarification on alternative adaptation models in supplementary informatio

Reanalysis of cancer mortality in Japanese A-bomb survivors exposed to low doses of radiation: bootstrap and simulation methods

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) recommended annual occupational dose limit is 20 mSv. Cancer mortality in Japanese A-bomb survivors exposed to less than 20 mSv external radiation in 1945 was analysed previously, using a latency model with non-linear dose response. Questions were raised regarding statistical inference with this model.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Cancers with over 100 deaths in the 0 - 20 mSv subcohort of the 1950-1990 Life Span Study are analysed with Poisson regression models incorporating latency, allowing linear and non-linear dose response. Bootstrap percentile and Bias-corrected accelerated (BCa) methods and simulation of the Likelihood Ratio Test lead to Confidence Intervals for Excess Relative Risk (ERR) and tests against the linear model.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The linear model shows significant large, positive values of ERR for liver and urinary cancers at latencies from 37 - 43 years. Dose response below 20 mSv is strongly non-linear at the optimal latencies for the stomach (11.89 years), liver (36.9), lung (13.6), leukaemia (23.66), and pancreas (11.86) and across broad latency ranges. Confidence Intervals for ERR are comparable using Bootstrap and Likelihood Ratio Test methods and BCa 95% Confidence Intervals are strictly positive across latency ranges for all 5 cancers. Similar risk estimates for 10 mSv (lagged dose) are obtained from the 0 - 20 mSv and 5 - 500 mSv data for the stomach, liver, lung and leukaemia. Dose response for the latter 3 cancers is significantly non-linear in the 5 - 500 mSv range.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Liver and urinary cancer mortality risk is significantly raised using a latency model with linear dose response. A non-linear model is strongly superior for the stomach, liver, lung, pancreas and leukaemia. Bootstrap and Likelihood-based confidence intervals are broadly comparable and ERR is strictly positive by bootstrap methods for all 5 cancers. Except for the pancreas, similar estimates of latency and risk from 10 mSv are obtained from the 0 - 20 mSv and 5 - 500 mSv subcohorts. Large and significant cancer risks for Japanese survivors exposed to less than 20 mSv external radiation from the atomic bombs in 1945 cast doubt on the ICRP recommended annual occupational dose limit.</p

Comparative Gene Expression Profiling of P. falciparum Malaria Parasites Exposed to Three Different Histone Deacetylase Inhibitors

Histone deacetylase (HDAC) inhibitors are being intensively pursued as potential new drugs for a range of diseases, including malaria. HDAC inhibitors are also important tools for the study of epigenetic mechanisms, transcriptional control, and other important cellular processes. In this study the effects of three structurally related antimalarial HDAC inhibitors on P. falciparum malaria parasite gene expression were compared. The three hydroxamate-based compounds, trichostatin A (TSA), suberoylanilide hydroxamic acid (SAHA; Vorinostat®) and a 2-aminosuberic acid derivative (2-ASA-9), all caused profound transcriptional effects, with ∼2–21% of genes having >2-fold altered expression following 2 h exposure to the compounds. Only two genes, alpha tubulin II and a hydrolase, were up-regulated by all three compounds after 2 h exposure in all biological replicates examined. The transcriptional changes observed after 2 h exposure to HDAC inhibitors were found to be largely transitory, with only 1–5% of genes being regulated after removing the compounds and culturing for a further 2 h. Despite some structural similarity, the three inhibitors caused quite diverse transcriptional effects, possibly reflecting subtle differences in mode of action or cellular distribution. This dataset represents an important contribution to our understanding of how HDAC inhibitors act on malaria parasites and identifies alpha tubulin II as a potential transcriptional marker of HDAC inhibition in malaria parasites that may be able to be exploited for future development of HDAC inhibitors as new antimalarial agents

Small global-mean cooling due to volcanic radiative forcing

In both the observational record and atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) simulations of the last ∼∼ 150 years, short-lived negative radiative forcing due to volcanic aerosol, following explosive eruptions, causes sudden global-mean cooling of up to ∼∼ 0.3 K. This is about five times smaller than expected from the transient climate response parameter (TCRP, K of global-mean surface air temperature change per W m−2 of radiative forcing increase) evaluated under atmospheric CO2 concentration increasing at 1 % yr−1. Using the step model (Good et al. in Geophys Res Lett 38:L01703, 2011. doi:10.​1029/​2010GL045208), we confirm the previous finding (Held et al. in J Clim 23:2418–2427, 2010. doi:10.​1175/​2009JCLI3466.​1) that the main reason for the discrepancy is the damping of the response to short-lived forcing by the thermal inertia of the upper ocean. Although the step model includes this effect, it still overestimates the volcanic cooling simulated by AOGCMs by about 60 %. We show that this remaining discrepancy can be explained by the magnitude of the volcanic forcing, which may be smaller in AOGCMs (by 30 % for the HadCM3 AOGCM) than in off-line calculations that do not account for rapid cloud adjustment, and the climate sensitivity parameter, which may be smaller than for increasing CO2 (40 % smaller than for 4 × CO2 in HadCM3)

Reconciled climate response estimates from climate models and the energy budget of Earth

Climate risks increase with mean global temperature, so knowledge about the amount of future global warming should better inform risk assessments for policymakers. Expected near-term warming is encapsulated by the transient climate response (TCR), formally defined as the warming following 70 years of 1% per year increases in atmospheric CO2 concentration, by which point atmospheric CO2 has doubled. Studies based on Earth’s historical energy budget have typically estimated lower values of TCR than climate models, suggesting that some models could overestimate future warming. However, energy-budget estimates rely on historical temperature records that are geographically incomplete and blend air temperatures over land and sea ice with water temperatures over open oceans. We show that there is no evidence that climate models overestimate TCR when their output is processed in the same way as the HadCRUT4 observation-based temperature record3, 4. Models suggest that air-temperature warming is 24% greater than observed by HadCRUT4 over 1861–2009 because slower-warming regions are preferentially sampled and water warms less than air5. Correcting for these biases and accounting for wider uncertainties in radiative forcing based on recent evidence, we infer an observation-based best estimate for TCR of 1.66 °C, with a 5–95% range of 1.0–3.3 °C, consistent with the climate models considered in the IPCC 5th Assessment Report

The effects of thermal capsulorrhaphy of medial parapatellar capsule on patellar lateral displacement

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The effectiveness of thermal shrinkage on the medial parapatellar capsule for treating recurrent patellar dislocation is controversial. One of reasons why it is still controversial is that the effectiveness is still qualitatively measured. The purpose of this study was to quantitatively determine the immediate effectiveness of the medial parapatellar capsule shrinkage as in clinical setting.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Nine cadaveric knees were used to collect lateral displacement data before and after medial shrinkage or open surgery. The force and displacement were recorded while a physician pressed the patella from the medial side to mimic the physical exam used in clinic. Ten healthy subjects were used to test the feasibility of the technique on patients and establish normal range of lateral displacement of the patella under a medial force. The force applied, the resulting displacement and the ratio of force over displacement were compared among four data groups (normal knees, cadaveric knees before medial shrinkage, after shrinkage and after open surgery).</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Displacements of the cadaveric knees both before and after thermal modification were similar to normal subjects, and the applied forces were significantly higher. No significant differences were found between before and after thermal modification groups. After open surgery, displacements were reduced significantly while applied forces were significantly higher.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>No immediate difference was found after thermal shrinkage of the medial parapatellar capsule. Open surgery immediately improved of the lateral stiffness of the knee capsule.</p