The Complexity Dilemma in Policy Market Design

Regulators are increasingly pursuing their policy objectives by creating markets. To create a policy market, regulators require firms to procure a product that is socially useful but that confers little direct private benefit to the acquiring party. Examples of policy markets include pollutant emissions trading programs, renewable energy credit markets, and electricity capacity markets. Existing scholarship has tended to analyze policy markets simply as market-based regulation. Although not inaccurate, such inquiries are necessarily incomplete because they do not focus on the distinctive traits of policy markets. Policy markets are neither typical regulations nor typical markets. Concentrating on policy markets as a distinctive type of market brings to light common characteristics of such markets, which in turn generates insights into how they can be used more effectively to implement policy. In particular, this Article focuses on a recurring fundamental challenge in policy market design: managing complexity. Typical markets manage complexity through market forces. As a regulatory creation, however, policy markets require regulators to manage their complexity. This poses what we call the complexity dilemma, which requires regulators to balance strong pressures both toward and away from complexity. The central argument of this Article is that although policy markets are an important part of a regulator’s toolkit, they are also subject to complexity that limits their usefulness. Understanding the complexity dilemma and its crucial role in policy market design forms an essential step toward progress in improving the design and function of these markets

Spatial patterns of tree yield explained by endogenous forces through a correspondence between the Ising model and ecology.

Spatial patterning of periodic dynamics is a dramatic and ubiquitous ecological phenomenon arising in systems ranging from diseases to plants to mammals. The degree to which spatial correlations in cyclic dynamics are the result of endogenous factors related to local dynamics vs. exogenous forcing has been one of the central questions in ecology for nearly a century. With the goal of obtaining a robust explanation for correlations over space and time in dynamics that would apply to many systems, we base our analysis on the Ising model of statistical physics, which provides a fundamental mechanism of spatial patterning. We show, using 5 y of data on over 6,500 trees in a pistachio orchard, that annual nut production, in different years, exhibits both large-scale synchrony and self-similar, power-law decaying correlations consistent with the Ising model near criticality. Our approach demonstrates the possibility that short-range interactions can lead to long-range correlations over space and time of cyclic dynamics even in the presence of large environmental variability. We propose that root grafting could be the common mechanism leading to positive short-range interactions that explains the ubiquity of masting, correlated seed production over space through time, by trees

The Cost of Unconventional Gas Extraction: A Hedonic Analysis

We focus on identification and estimation of potentially negative environmental impacts of unconventional natural gas extraction on property values in the United States and advance previous research by contributing new data and new identification strategies for isolating these potential impacts. Our study area consists of two counties in Pennsylvania that are home to large amounts of unconventional natural gas extraction but are otherwise isolated from other resource extraction industries or large urban areas. We deploy parametric, semi-parametric, and matching hedonic regression models that include recent quasi-experimental methods and, in contrast to previous research and much popular intuition, we fail to find robust significance that negative environmental externalities of natural gas extraction are manifested in nearby property values. While there may be plausible risks associated with unconventional natural gas extraction, we do not find consistent evidence to suggest that these risks significantly affect nearby property values

Strategic Insight and Age-Related Goal-Neglect Influence Risky Decision-Making

Maximizing long-run gains often requires taking on some degree of risk, yet decision-makers often exhibit risk aversion (RA), rejecting risky prospects even when these have higher expected value (EV) than safer alternatives. We investigated whether explicit strategy instruction and practice can decrease prepotent RA, and whether aging impacts the efficacy of such an intervention. Participants performed a paired lottery task with options varying in risk and magnitude, both before and after practice with a similar task that encouraged maximization of EV and instruction to use this strategy in risky decisions. In both younger and older adults (OAs), strategy training reduced RA. Although RA was age-equivalent at baseline, larger training effects were observed in younger adults (YAs). These effects were not explained by risk-related (i.e., affective) interference effects or computation ability, but were consistent with a progressive, age-related neglect of the strategy across trials. Our findings suggest that strategy training can diminish RA, but that training efficacy is reduced among OAs, potentially due to goal neglect. We discuss implications for neural mechanisms that may distinguish older and YAs’ risky decision-making

The Development of Sleep-Wake Rhythms and the Search for Elemental Circuits in the Infant Brain

Despite the predominance of sleep in early infancy, developmental science has yet to play a major role in shaping concepts and theories about sleep and its associated ultradian and circadian rhythms. Here we argue that developmental analyses help us to elucidate the relative contributions of the brainstem and forebrain to sleep-wake control and to dissect the neural components of sleep-wake rhythms. Developmental analysis also makes it clear that sleep-wake processes in infants are the foundation for those of adults. For example, the infant brainstem alone contains a fundamental sleep-wake circuit that is sufficient to produce transitions among wakefulness, quiet sleep, and active sleep. In addition, consistent with the requirements of a flip-flop model of sleep-wake processes, this brainstem circuit supports rapid transitions between states. Later in development, strengthening bidirectional interactions between the brainstem and forebrain contribute to the consolidation of sleep and wake bouts, the elaboration of sleep homeostatic processes, and the emergence of diurnal or nocturnal circadian rhythms. The developmental perspective promoted here critically constrains theories of sleep-wake control and provides a needed framework for the creation of fully realized computational models. Finally, with a better understanding of how this system is constructed developmentally, we will gain insight into the processes that govern its disintegration due to aging and disease

Computational evidence for an early, amplified systemic inflammation program in polytrauma patients with severe extremity injuries

Extremity and soft tissue injuries contribute significantly to inflammation and adverse in-hospital outcomes for trauma survivors; accordingly, we examined the complex association between clinical outcomes inflammatory responses in this setting using in silico tools. Two stringently propensity-matched, moderately/severely injured (Injury Severity Score > 16) patient sub-cohorts of ~30 patients each were derived retrospectively from a cohort of 472 blunt trauma survivors and segregated based on their degree of extremity injury severity (above or below 3 on the Abbreviated Injury Scale). Serial blood samples were analyzed for 31 plasma inflammatory mediators. In addition to standard statistical analyses, Dynamic Network Analysis (DyNA) and Principal Component Analysis (PCA) were used to model systemic inflammation following trauma. Patients in the severe extremity injury sub-cohort experienced longer intensive care unit length of stay (LOS), total LOS, and days on a mechanical ventilator, with higher Marshall Multiple Organ Dysfunction (MOD) Scores over the first 7 days post-injury as compared to the mild/moderate extremity injury sub-cohort. The higher severity cohort had statistically significant elevated lactate, base deficit, and creatine phosphokinase on first blood draw, along with significant changes in multiple circulating inflammatory mediators. DyNA pointed to a sustained role for type 17 immunity in both sub-cohorts, along with IFN-γ in the severe extremity injury group. DyNA network complexity increased over 7 days post-injury in the severe injury group, while generally decreasing over this same time period in the mild/moderate injury group. PCA suggested a more robust activation of multiple pathways in the severe extremity injury group as compared to the mild/moderate injury group. These studies thus point to the possibility of self-sustaining inflammation following severe extremity injury vs. resolving inflammation following less severe extremity injury

Macroalgal browsing on a heavily degraded, urbanized equatorial reef system

The removal of macroalgal biomass is critical to the health of coral reef ecosystems. Previous studies on relatively intact reefs with diverse and abundant fish communities have quantified rapid removal of macroalgae by herbivorous fishes, yet how these findings rel ate to degraded reef systems where fish diversity and abundance are markedly lower and algal biomass substantially higher, is unclear. We surveyed roving herbivorous fish communities and quantified their capacity to remove the dominant macroalga Sargassum ilicifolium on seven reefs in Singapore; a heavily degraded urbanized reef system. The diversity and abundance of herbivorous fishes was extremely low, with eight species and a mean abundance ~1.1 individuals 60 m -2 recorded across reefs. Consumption of S. ilicifolium varied with distance from Singapore's main port with consumption being 3- to 17-fold higher on reefs furthest from the port (Pulau Satumu: 4.18 g h -1 ; Kusu Island: 2.38 g h -1 ) than reefs closer to the port (0.35-0.78 g h -1 ). Video observations revealed a single species, Siganus virgatus, was almost solely responsible for removing S. ilicifolium biomass, accounting for 83% of the mass-standardized bites. Despite low herbivore diversity and intense urbanization, macroalgal removal by fishes on some Singaporean reefs was directly comparable to rates reported for other inshore Indo-Pacific reefs

Fear effects and group size interact to shape herbivory on coral reefs

Fear of predators (‘fear effects’) is an important determinant of foraging decisions by consumers across a range of ecosystems. Group size is one of the main behavioural mechanisms for mitigating fear effects while also providing foraging benefits to group members. Within coral reef ecosystems, fear effects have been shown to influence the feeding rates of herbivorous fishes, a key functional group that prevents macroalgal overgrowth. Yet, how fear effects and group size interact to shape macroalgal removal on coral reefs remains unclear. Here, we conducted field-based experiments using models of a common piscivorous fish, the leopard coral grouper Plectropomus leopardus and a series of macroalgal Sargassum ilicifolium assays positioned at increasing distances from the models (1, 2, 3 and 4 m) on two coral reefs in Singapore to investigate how acute fear effects shape the intensity of herbivory, and whether these effects were influenced by variation in the group size of herbivorous fishes feeding on the assays. We found acute fear effects strongly influenced the foraging behaviour of herbivorous fishes over small spatial scales. Rates of Sargassum biomass removal, feeding rates and the total number of individual feeding events were all lower near the predator model. These effects dissipated rapidly with increasing distance from the predator model and were undetectable at a distance of 4 m. We also found generally larger group sizes of herbivorous fishes further from the predator model, presumably reflecting decreased risk. Furthermore, the number of individual bites/event increased significantly with increasing group size for two common browsing fishes, Siganus virgatus and Siganus javus. Our findings highlight that acute fear effects influence the distribution and intensity of herbivory over small spatial scales. Fear effects also interacted with herbivore group size resulting in changes in the number of individual feeding events and bite rates that collectively shape the realized ecosystem function of macroalgal removal on coral reefs. Group size is an important context-dependent factor that should be considered when examining fear effects on coral reefs. A free Plain Language Summary can be found within the Supporting Information of this article

Distinct Retinohypothalamic Innervation Patterns Predict the Developmental Emergence of Species-typical Circadian Phase Preference in Nocturnal Norway Rats and Diurnal Nile Grass Rats

How does the brain develop differently to support nocturnality in some mammals, but diurnality in others? To answer this question, one might look to the suprachiasmatic nucleus (SCN), which is entrained by light via the retinohypothalamic tract (RHT). However, because the SCN is more active during the day in all mammals studied thus far, it alone cannot determine circadian phase preference. In adult Norway rats (Rattus norvegicus), which are nocturnal, the RHT also projects to the ventral subparaventricular zone (vSPVZ), an adjacent region that expresses an in-phase pattern of SCN-vSPVZ neuronal activity. In contrast, in adult Nile grass rats (Arvicanthis niloticus), which are diurnal, an anti-phase pattern of SCN-vSPVZ neuronal activity is expressed. We hypothesized that these species differences result in part from a weak or absent RHT-to-vSPVZ projection in grass rats. Here, using a developmental comparative approach, we assessed species differences in behavior, hypothalamic activity, and RHT anatomy. We report that a robust retina-to-vSPVZ projection develops in Norway rats around the end of the second postnatal week when nocturnal wakefulness and the in-phase pattern of neuronal activity emerge. In grass rats, however, such a projection does not develop and the emergence of the anti-phase pattern during the second postnatal week is accompanied by increased diurnal wakefulness. When considered within the context of previously published reports on RHT projections in a variety of species, the current findings suggest that how and when the retina connects to the hypothalamus differentially shapes brain and behavior to produce animals that occupy opposing temporal niches

Enzyme Activity of Phosphatase of Regenerating Liver (PRL-1) Is Controlled by Redox Environment and Its C-terminal Residues

This publication was made possible by National Institutes of Health Grant P20 RR-17708 from the National Center for Research Resources and the Kansas University Center for Research. This work was additionally supported by fellowships for A.L.S. from Amgen and the Edith and Eleta Ernst Cancer Research Fellowship. The Q-Tof2tm instrument was purchased with support from KSTAR, Kansas-administered NSF EPSCoR, and the University of Kansas. The CapXL HPLC system was obtained with support from KCALSI.Phosphatase of regenerating liver-1 (PRL-1) belongs to a unique subfamily of protein tyrosine phosphatases (PTPases) associated with oncogenic and metastatic phenotypes. While considerable evidence exists to supports a role for PRL-1 in promoting proliferation, the biological regulators and effectors of PRL-1 activity remain unknown. PRL-1 activity is inhibited by disulfide bond formation at the active site in vitro, suggesting PRL-1 may be susceptible to redox regulation in vivo. Because PRL-1 has been observed to localize to several different subcellular locations and cellular redox conditions vary with tissue type, age, stage of cell cycle and subcellular location, we determined the reduction potential of the active site disulfide bond that controls phosphatase activity to better understand the function of PRL-1 in various cellular environments. We used high-resolution solution NMR spectroscopy to measure the potential and found it to be −364.3 ± 1.5 mV. Because normal cellular environments range from −170 to −320 mV, we concluded that nascent PRL-1 would be primarily oxidized inside cells. Our studies show that a significant conformational change accompanies activation, suggesting a post-translational modification may alter the reduction potential, conferring activity. We further demonstrate that alteration of the C-terminus renders the protein reduced and active in vitro, implying the C-terminus is an important regulator of PRL-1 function. These data provide a basis for understanding how subcellular localization regulates the activity of PRL-1 and, with further investigation, may help reveal how PRL-1 promotes unique outcomes in different cellular systems, including proliferation in both normal and diseased states