Effectiveness of protected areas against land development in coastal areas of the Mediterranean global biodiversity hotspot

The Mediterranean Basin is a heavily pressured World biodiversity hotspot. Mediterranean coastal areas are especially threatened due to tourism, inland migration and population growth, jeopardizing the remaining natural habitats. Protected areas (PAs) aim to conserve biodiversity and ecosystem services in the long term. Here, we assessed whether coastal PAs in 16 Mediterranean countries had been effective at conserving natural habitats from land development between 2000 and 2020, using a Before-After-Control-Impact design with covariates and case-control matching in R. Mediterranean coastal PAs were effective in reducing land development, with just one exception: Israel. Legally stringent reserves were generally more effective than legally lenient multiple-use PAs, with few exceptions: Albania, France and Cyprus. In a number of countries, reserves completely prevented coastal land development, which shows that reserves are a useful tool to preserve waning Mediterranean coastal habitats. Institutional, social, economic and geographic explanatory factors were analysed for PA effectiveness at country scale, but no significant results were found, suggesting high specificity of PA effectiveness.AD received financial support from the Erasmus + Programme of the European Commission to develop this study. We would like to acknowledge two anonymous reviewers whose remarks helped us improve the quality of our manuscript. Partial funding for open access charge: Universidad de Málag

Econometric tests of the expectations theory of the term structure in New Zealand

This paper attempts to account for the empirical failure of the expectations theory of the term structure when it is tested using a variety of methods based on single-equation and vector autoregressive (VAR) models. It is argued that the failure of the spread to forecast future short-term rate changes is due to the omission from the regression of a time-varying term premium that is correlated with the spread. The inclusion of a white-noise error term in spread regressions is thought to take account of any random components in the term premium, and thus enable better judgement to be made about the expectations hypothesis of the term structure. This investigation finds there is strong empirical support for the long-run implications of the expectations theory. However, the empirical evidence does not support the short-run predictions of the expectations theory when these predictions are tested by imposing restrictions on the parameters of single-equation and VAR models. These results are inconsistent with the view that the inclusion of a white-noise error term in spread regressions is enough to reconcile the expectations theory with the data

Vibrations of a Columnar Vortex in a Trapped Bose-Einstein Condensate

We derive a governing equation for a Kelvin wave supported on a vortex line in a Bose-Einstein condensate, in a rotating cylindrically symmetric parabolic trap. From this solution the Kelvin wave dispersion relation is determined. In the limit of an oblate trap and in the absence of longitudinal trapping our results are consistent with previous work. We show that the derived Kelvin wave dispersion in the general case is in quantitative agreement with numerical calculations of the Bogoliubov spectrum and offer a significant improvement upon previous analytical work.Comment: 5 pages with 1 figur

Evidence of the Harmonic Faraday Instability in Ultrasonic Atomization Experiments with a Deep, Inviscid Fluid

A popular method for generating micron-sized aerosols is to submerge ultrasonic (ω~MHz) piezoelectric oscillators in a water bath. The submerged oscillator atomizes the fluid, creating droplets with radii proportional to the wavelength of the standing wave at the fluid surface. Classical theory for the Faraday instability predicts a parametric instability driving a capillary wave at the subharmonic (ω/2) frequency. For many applications it is desirable to reduce the size of the droplets; however, using higher frequency oscillators becomes impractical beyond a few MHz. Observations are presented that demonstrate that smaller droplets may also be created by increasing the driving amplitude of the oscillator, and that this effect becomes more pronounced for large driving frequencies. It is shown that these observations are consistent with a transition from droplets associated with subharmonic (ω/2) capillary waves to harmonic (ω) capillary waves induced by larger driving frequencies and amplitudes, as predicted by a stability analysis of the capillary waves

Spectrum of turbulent Kelvin-waves cascade in superfluid helium

To explain the observed decay of superfluid turbulence at very low temperature, it has been proposed that a cascade of Kelvin waves (analogous to the classical Kolmogorov cascade) transfers kinetic energy to length scales which are small enough that sound can be radiated away. We report results of numerical simulations of the interaction of quantized vortex filaments. We observe the development of the Kelvin-waves cascade, and compute the statistics of the curvature, the amplitude spectrum (which we compare with competing theories) and the fractal dimension.Comment: 32 pages, 22 figure

Seismic evidence of glacial-age river incision into the Tahaa barrier reef, French Polynesia

This paper is not subject to U.S. copyright. The definitive version was published in Marine Geology 380 (2016): 284–289, doi:10.1016/j.margeo.2016.04.008.Rivers have long been recognized for their ability to shape reef-bound volcanic islands. On the time-scale of glacial–interglacial sea-level cycles, fluvial incision of exposed barrier reef lagoons may compete with constructional coral growth to shape the coastal geomorphology of ocean islands. However, overprinting of Pleistocene landscapes by Holocene erosion or sedimentation has largely obscured the role lowstand river incision may have played in developing the deep lagoons typical of modern barrier reefs. Here we use high-resolution seismic imagery and core stratigraphy to examine how erosion and/or deposition by upland drainage networks has shaped coastal morphology on Tahaa, a barrier reef-bound island located along the Society Islands hotspot chain in French Polynesia. At Tahaa, we find that many channels, incised into the lagoon floor during Pleistocene sea-level lowstands, are located near the mouths of upstream terrestrial drainages. Steeper antecedent topography appears to have enhanced lowstand fluvial erosion along Tahaa's southwestern coast and maintained a deep pass. During highstands, upland drainages appear to contribute little sediment to refilling accommodation space in the lagoon. Rather, the flushing of fine carbonate sediment out of incised fluvial channels by storms and currents appears to have limited lagoonal infilling and further reinforced development of deep barrier reef lagoons during periods of highstand submersion.This project was supported by a Jackson School Distinguished Postdoctoral Fellowship to Michael Toomey and the WHOI Coastal Ocean Institute and Ocean and Climate Change Institute

Sea-level rise will drive divergent sediment transport patterns on fore reefs and reef flats, potentially causing erosion on Atoll Islands

Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2020. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface 125 (2020): e2019JF005446, doi: 10.1029/2019JF005446.Atoll reef islands primarily consist of unconsolidated sediment, and their ocean‐facing shorelines are maintained by sediment produced and transported across their reefs. Changes in incident waves can alter cross‐shore sediment exchange and, thus, affect the sediment budget and morphology of atoll reef islands. Here we investigate the influence of sea level rise and projected wave climate change on wave characteristics and cross‐shore sediment transport across an atoll reef at Kwajalein Island, Republic of the Marshall Islands. Using a phase‐resolving model, we quantify the influence on sediment transport of quantities not well captured by wave‐averaged models, namely, wave asymmetry and skewness and flow acceleration. Model results suggest that for current reef geometry, sea level, and wave climate, potential bedload transport is directed onshore, decreases from the fore reef to the beach, and is sensitive to the influence of flow acceleration. We find that a projected 12% decrease in annual wave energy by 2100 CE has negligible influence on reef flat hydrodynamics. However, 0.5–2.0 m of sea level rise increases wave heights, skewness, and shear stress on the reef flat and decreases wave skewness and shear stress on the fore reef. These hydrodynamic changes decrease potential sediment inputs onshore from the fore reef where coral production is greatest but increase potential cross‐reef sediment transport from the outer reef flat to the beach. Assuming sediment production on the fore reef remains constant or decreases due to increasing ocean temperatures and acidification, these processes have the potential to decrease net sediment delivery to atoll islands, causing erosion.This study was supported by the Strategic Environmental Research and Development Program through awards SERDP: RC‐2334, and RC‐2336. Any use of trade, firm, or product names is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the U.S. Government.2021-03-2

Increased threat of tropical cyclones and coastal flooding to New York City during the anthropogenic era

Author Posting. © The Author(s), 2015. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here by permission of National Academy of Sciences for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 112 (2015): 12610-12615, doi:10.1073/pnas.1513127112.In a changing climate, future inundation of the United States’ Atlantic coast will depend on both storm surges during tropical cyclones and the rising relative sea-levels on which those surges occur. However, the observational record of tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic basin is too short (AD 1851-present) to accurately assess long-term trends in storm activity. To overcome this limitation, we use proxy sealevel records, and downscale three CMIP5 models to generate large synthetic tropical cyclone data sets for the North Atlantic basin; driving climate conditions span from AD 850 to AD 2005. We compare preanthropogenic era (AD 850 – AD 1800) and anthropogenic era (AD 1970 – AD 2005) storm-surge model results for New York City, exposing links between increased rates of sea-level rise and storm flood heights. We find that mean flood heights increased by ~1.24 m (due mainly to sea level rise) from ~AD 850 to the anthropogenic era, a result that is significant at the 99% confidence level. Additionally, changes in tropical cyclone characteristics have led to increases in the extremes of the types of storms that create the largest storm surges for New York City. As a result, flood risk has greatly increased for the region; for example, the 500 year return period for a ~2.25 m flood height during the preanthropogenic era has decreased to ~24.4 years in the anthropogenic era. Our results indicate the impacts of climate change on coastal inundation, and call for advanced risk management strategies.The authors acknowledge funding for this study from NOAA Grants # 424-18 45GZ and # NA11OAR4310101 and National Science Foundation award OCE 1458904.2016-03-2

Relative sea-level change in Connecticut (USA) during the last 2200 yrs

We produced a relative sea-level (RSL) reconstruction from Connecticut (USA) spanning the last ∼2200 yrs that is free from the influence of sediment compaction. The reconstruction used a suite of vertically- and laterally-ordered sediment samples ≤2 cm above bedrock that were collected by excavating a trench along an evenly-sloped bedrock surface. Paleomarsh elevation was reconstructed using a regional-scale transfer function trained on the modern distribution of foraminifera on Long Island Sound salt marshes and supported by bulk-sediment δ13C measurements. The history of sediment accumulation was estimated using an age-elevation model constrained by radiocarbon dates and recognition of pollution horizons of known age. The RSL reconstruction was combined with regional tide-gauge measurements spanning the last ∼150 yrs before being quantitatively analyzed using an error-in-variables integrated Gaussian process model to identify sea-level trends with formal and appropriate treatment of uncertainty and the temporal distribution of data. RSL rise was stable (∼1 mm/yr) from ∼200 BCE to ∼1000 CE, slowed to a minimum rate of rise (0.41 mm/yr) at ∼1400 CE, and then accelerated continuously to reach a current rate of 3.2 mm/yr, which is the fastest, century-scale rate of the last 2200 yrs. Change point analysis identified that modern rates of rise in Connecticut began at 1850–1886 CE. This timing is synchronous with changes recorded at other sites on the U.S. Atlantic coast and is likely the local expression of a global sea-level change. Earlier sea-level trends show coherence north of Cape Hatteras that are contrasted with southern sites. This pattern may represent centennial-scale variability in the position and/or strength of the Gulf Stream. Comparison of the new record to three existing and reanalyzed RSL reconstructions from the same site developed using sediment cores indicates that compaction is unlikely to significantly distort RSL reconstructions produced from shallow (∼2–3 m thick) sequences of salt-marsh peat

Late Holocene sea- and land-level change on the U.S. southeastern Atlantic coast

Late Holocene relative sea-level (RSL) reconstructions can be used to estimate rates of land-level (subsidence or uplift) change and therefore to modify global sea-level projections for regional conditions. These reconstructions also provide the long-term benchmark against which modern trends are compared and an opportunity to understand the response of sea level to past climate variability. To address a spatial absence of late Holocene data in Florida and Georgia, we reconstructed ~ 1.3 m of RSL rise in northeastern Florida (USA) during the past ~ 2600 years using plant remains and foraminifera in a dated core of high salt-marsh sediment. The reconstruction was fused with tide-gauge data from nearby Fernandina Beach, which measured 1.91 ± 0.26 mm/year of RSL rise since 1900 CE. The average rate of RSL rise prior to 1800 CE was 0.41 ± 0.08 mm/year. Assuming negligible change in global mean sea level from meltwater input/removal and thermal expansion/contraction, this sea-level history approximates net land-level (subsidence and geoid) change, principally from glacio-isostatic adjustment. Historic rates of rise commenced at 1850–1890 CE and it is virtually certain (P = 0.99) that the average rate of 20th century RSL rise in northeastern Florida was faster than during any of the preceding 26 centuries. The linearity of RSL rise in Florida is in contrast to the variability reconstructed at sites further north on the U.S. Atlantic coast and may suggest a role for ocean dynamic effects in explaining these more variable RSL reconstructions. Comparison of the difference between reconstructed rates of late Holocene RSL rise and historic trends measured by tide gauges indicates that 20th century sea-level trends along the U.S. Atlantic coast were not dominated by the characteristic spatial fingerprint of melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet