Essays in macroeconomics, corporate finance, and social learning

Thesis (Ph. D.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Economics, 2004.Includes bibliographical references.(cont.) the release of information until the long-term results of the firm are realized. In equilibrium, when the belief about the aggregate state is high, managers will be given short-term incentives, delaying the release of information. When the belief about the aggregate state is low, long-term incentives will be prevalent and information will be released without delay. This produces asymmetric learning dynamics for the economy, with gradual booms and rapid recessions. In a boom the belief about the aggregate state increases, information is pushed off into the future, and learning is slow. In a recession the belief is falling, triggering a switch to long-term incentives, that brings forward the release of information and accelerates learning. Chapter 2 presents a model of corporate misreporting in an environment where investors have heterogeneous beliefs and short sale constraints. The disagreement between investors provides a motive for agents who start a firm to limit the amount of information which it releases to the public so as to sponsor speculation over its value. This incentive to limit information is stronger when the heterogeneity of beliefs among investors is stronger. Investors also learn about a firm's expected profitability from the information released by other firms in the industry. I show that this creates a strategic complementarily in the precision of information released by each firm. This can give rise to multiple equilibria: one in which all firms release precise reports and one in which their reports are inaccurate ...This thesis consists of three essays at the intersection of macroeconomics, corporate finance, and social learning. The underlying theme which links these three chapters is the study of private incentives to gather and release information and their impact upon the way society learns as a whole. Chapters 1 and 2 focus upon the incentives within a firm to distort the way a firm's performance is perceived publicly. Chapter 1 focuses upon the case of a manager whose incentives encourage her to take actions which distort the observed performance of the firm. In that context the firm's owners tolerate distortions so as to gain from high powered incentives. In chapter 2 I argue that the owners of a firm may have it in their interest to distort the information a firm releases so as to create uncertainty and thereby sponsor speculation on the value of the firm. Chapter 3 considers a scenario where an intelligence agency relies upon the information provided by citizens not under their direct control. A common feature of each chapter is that private decisions about information release are made without considering their full social value. Turning to specifics, Chapter 1 presents a theory of gradual booms and rapid recessions that is motivated by the experience of the US economy over the last decade. The dynamics of the economy are driven by the speed at which agents learn about the unobserved aggregate state. Agents learn from the observed performance of firms. Each firm is controlled by a manager whose compensation is based upon the observed performance of their firm. If a manager is given short-term incentives, she will try to hide weak short-term performance. This makes the short-term performance of a firm less informative for the aggregate state, delayingby Andrew C.P. Hertzberg.Ph.D

Topological and subsystem codes on low-degree graphs with flag qubits

In this work we introduce two code families, which we call the heavy hexagon code and heavy square code. Both code families are implemented by assigning physical data and ancilla qubits to both vertices and edges of low degree graphs. Such a layout is particularly suitable for superconducting qubit architectures to minimize frequency collisions and crosstalk. In some cases, frequency collisions can be reduced by several orders of magnitude. The heavy hexagon code is a hybrid surface/Bacon-Shor code mapped onto a (heavy) hexagonal lattice whereas the heavy square code is the surface code mapped onto a (heavy) square lattice. In both cases, the lattice includes all the ancilla qubits required for fault-tolerant error-correction. Naively, the limited qubit connectivity might be thought to limit the error-correcting capability of the code to less than its full distance. Therefore, essential to our construction is the use of flag qubits. We modify minimum weight perfect matching decoding to efficiently and scalably incorporate information from measurements of the flag qubits and correct up to the full code distance while respecting the limited connectivity. Simulations show that high threshold values for both codes can be obtained using our decoding protocol. Further, our decoding scheme can be adapted to other topological code families.Comment: 20 pages, 21 figures, Comments welcome! V2 conforms to journal specification

CMBPol Mission Concept Study: Probing Inflation with CMB Polarization

We summarize the utility of precise cosmic microwave background (CMB) polarization measurements as probes of the physics of inflation. We focus on the prospects for using CMB measurements to differentiate various inflationary mechanisms. In particular, a detection of primordial B-mode polarization would demonstrate that inflation occurred at a very high energy scale, and that the inflaton traversed a super-Planckian distance in field space. We explain how such a detection or constraint would illuminate aspects of physics at the Planck scale. Moreover, CMB measurements can constrain the scale-dependence and non-Gaussianity of the primordial fluctuations and limit the possibility of a significant isocurvature contribution. Each such limit provides crucial information on the underlying inflationary dynamics. Finally, we quantify these considerations by presenting forecasts for the sensitivities of a future satellite experiment to the inflationary parameters.Comment: 107 pages, 14 figures, 17 tables; Inflation Working Group contribution to the CMBPol Mission Concept Study; v2: typos fixed and references adde

Observing the Evolution of the Universe

How did the universe evolve? The fine angular scale (l>1000) temperature and polarization anisotropies in the CMB are a Rosetta stone for understanding the evolution of the universe. Through detailed measurements one may address everything from the physics of the birth of the universe to the history of star formation and the process by which galaxies formed. One may in addition track the evolution of the dark energy and discover the net neutrino mass. We are at the dawn of a new era in which hundreds of square degrees of sky can be mapped with arcminute resolution and sensitivities measured in microKelvin. Acquiring these data requires the use of special purpose telescopes such as the Atacama Cosmology Telescope (ACT), located in Chile, and the South Pole Telescope (SPT). These new telescopes are outfitted with a new generation of custom mm-wave kilo-pixel arrays. Additional instruments are in the planning stages.Comment: Science White Paper submitted to the US Astro2010 Decadal Survey. Full list of 177 author available at http://cmbpol.uchicago.ed

Allogeneic Hematopoietic Cell Transplantation Provides Effective Salvage Despite Refractory Disease or Failed Prior Autologous Transplant in Angioimmunoblastic T-Cell Lymphoma: A CIBMTR Analysis

Background: There is a paucity of data on the role of allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation (allo-HCT) in patients with angioimmunoblastic T-cell lymphoma (AITL). Using the CIBMTR registry, we report here the outcomes of AITL patients undergoing an allo-HCT. Methods: We evaluated 249 adult AITL patients who received their first allo-HCT during 2000–2016. Results: The median patient age was 56 years (range = 21–77). Majority of the patients were Caucasians (86%), with a male predominance (60%). Graft-versus-host disease (GVHD) prophylaxis was predominantly calcineurin inhibitor-based approaches while the most common graft source was peripheral blood (97%). Median follow-up of survivors was 49 months (range = 4–170 months). The cumulative incidence of grade 2–4 and grade 3–4 acute GVHD at day 180 were 36% (95% CI = 30–42) and 12 (95% CI = 8–17), respectively. The cumulative incidence of chronic GVHD at 1 year was 49% (95%CI 43–56). The 1-year non-relapse mortality (NRM) was 19% (95% CI = 14–24), while the 4-year relapse/progression, progression-free survival (PFS), and overall survival (OS) were 21% (95% CI = 16–27), 49% (95% CI = 42–56), and 56% (95% CI = 49–63), respectively. On multivariate analysis, chemoresistant status at the time of allo-HCT was associated with a significantly higher risk for therapy failure (inverse of PFS) (RR = 1.73 95% CI = 1.08–2.77), while KPS \u3c 90% was associated with a significantly higher risk of mortality (inverse of OS) (RR = 3.46 95% CI = 1.75–6.87). Conclusion: Our analysis shows that allo-HCT provides durable disease control even in AITL patients who failed a prior auto-HCT and in those subjects with refractory disease at the time of allografting

Allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation provides effective salvage despite refractory disease or failed prior autologous transplant in angioimmunoblastic T-cell lymphoma: a CIBMTR analysis

Abstract Background There is a paucity of data on the role of allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation (allo-HCT) in patients with angioimmunoblastic T-cell lymphoma (AITL). Using the CIBMTR registry, we report here the outcomes of AITL patients undergoing an allo-HCT. Methods We evaluated 249 adult AITL patients who received their first allo-HCT during 2000–2016. Results The median patient age was 56 years (range = 21–77). Majority of the patients were Caucasians (86%), with a male predominance (60%). Graft-versus-host disease (GVHD) prophylaxis was predominantly calcineurin inhibitor-based approaches while the most common graft source was peripheral blood (97%). Median follow-up of survivors was 49 months (range = 4–170 months). The cumulative incidence of grade 2–4 and grade 3–4 acute GVHD at day 180 were 36% (95% CI = 30–42) and 12 (95% CI = 8–17), respectively. The cumulative incidence of chronic GVHD at 1 year was 49% (95%CI 43–56). The 1-year non-relapse mortality (NRM) was 19% (95% CI = 14–24), while the 4-year relapse/progression, progression-free survival (PFS), and overall survival (OS) were 21% (95% CI = 16–27), 49% (95% CI = 42–56), and 56% (95% CI = 49–63), respectively. On multivariate analysis, chemoresistant status at the time of allo-HCT was associated with a significantly higher risk for therapy failure (inverse of PFS) (RR = 1.73 95% CI = 1.08–2.77), while KPS < 90% was associated with a significantly higher risk of mortality (inverse of OS) (RR = 3.46 95% CI = 1.75–6.87). Conclusion Our analysis shows that allo-HCT provides durable disease control even in AITL patients who failed a prior auto-HCT and in those subjects with refractory disease at the time of allografting.https://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/146782/1/13045_2018_Article_696.pd

Idarubicin dose escalation during consolidation therapy for adult acute myeloid leukemia

Purpose Higher doses of the anthracycline daunorubicin during induction therapy for acute myeloid leukemia (AML) have been shown to improve remission rates and survival. We hypothesized that improvements in outcomes in adult AML may be further achieved by increased anthracycline dose during consolidation therapy. Patients and Methods Patients with AML in complete remission after induction therapy were randomly assigned to receive two cycles of consolidation therapy with cytarabine 100 mg/m daily for 5 days, etoposide 75 mg/m daily for 5 days, and idarubicin 9 mg/m daily for either 2 or 3 days (standard and intensive arms, respectively). The primary end point was leukemia-free survival (LFS). Results Two hundred ninety-three patients 16 to 60 years of age, excluding those with core binding factor AML and acute promyelocytic leukemia, were randomly assigned to treatment groups (146 to the standard arm and 147 to the intensive arm). Both groups were balanced for age, karyotypic risk, and FLT3–internal tandem duplication and NPM1 gene mutations. One hundred twenty patients in the standard arm (82%) and 95 patients in the intensive arm (65%) completed planned consolidation (P, .001). Durations of severe neutropenia and thrombocytopenia were prolonged in the intensive arm, but there were no differences in serious nonhematological toxicities. With a median follow-up of 5.3 years (range, 0.6 to 9.9 years), there was a statistically significant improvement in LFS in the intensive arm compared with the standard arm (3-year LFS, 47% [95% CI, 40% to 56%] v 35% [95% CI, 28% to 44%]; P = .045). At 5 years, the overall survival rate was 57% in the intensive arm and 47% in the standard arm (P = .092). There was no evidence of selective benefit of intensive consolidation within the cytogenetic or FLT3–internal tandem duplication and NPM1 gene mutation subgroups. Conclusion An increased cumulative dose of idarubicin during consolidation therapy for adult AML resulted in improved LFS, without increased nonhematologic toxicity

Molecular dynamics simulations of the Cx26 hemichannel: Evaluation of structural models with Brownian dynamics

The recently published crystal structure of the Cx26 gap junction channel provides a unique opportunity for elucidation of the structure of the conductive connexin pore and the molecular determinants of its ion permeation properties (conductance, current–voltage [I-V] relations, and charge selectivity). However, the crystal structure was incomplete, most notably lacking the coordinates of the N-terminal methionine residue, which resides within the pore, and also lacking two cytosolic domains. To allow computational studies for comparison with the known channel properties, we completed the structure. Grand canonical Monte Carlo Brownian dynamics (GCMC/BD) simulations of the completed and the published Cx26 hemichannel crystal structure indicate that the pore is too narrow to permit significant ion flux. The GCMC/BD simulations predict marked inward current rectification and almost perfect anion selectivity, both inconsistent with known channel properties. The completed structure was refined by all-atom molecular dynamics (MD) simulations (220 ns total) in an explicit solvent and POPC membrane system. These MD simulations produced an equilibrated structure with a larger minimal pore diameter, which decreased the height of the permeation barrier formed by the N terminus. GCMC/BD simulations of the MD-equilibrated structure yielded more appropriate single-channel conductance and less anion/cation selectivity. However, the simulations much more closely matched experimentally determined I-V relations when the charge effects of specific co- and posttranslational modifications of Cx26 previously identified by mass spectrometry were incorporated. We conclude that the average equilibrated structure obtained after MD simulations more closely represents the open Cx26 hemichannel structure than does the crystal structure, and that co- and posttranslational modifications of Cx26 hemichannels are likely to play an important physiological role by defining the conductance and ion selectivity of Cx26 channels. Furthermore, the simulations and data suggest that experimentally observed heterogeneity in Cx26 I-V relations can be accounted for by variation in co- and posttranslational modifications