Are the social groups most likely to be unemployed also those most likely to prefer being employed? Evidence from the 2000 British Cohort Study and 2000/2008 National Child Development Study

This paper first argues for a new approach to researching the issue of unemployment and work attitudes, and then presents findings from an analysis of 2000 British Cohort Study and 2000/2008 National Child Development Study data. Existing social policy literature has shown that a large majority of unemployed people want jobs and actively seek them, but it has not examined choices between less enjoyable jobs and unemployment. Indeed, literature on whether or not unemployed people want employment has not discussed work attitude measurement at all, and has often used measures that do not offer respondents a choice between employment and unemployment and do not hold job quality constant. Furthermore, while the unemployed and employed are found to generally share the same values including a strong work ethic, there is little or no discussion of differences in values and preferences among groups that cut across the two categories. Nor is there recognition that the unemployed category contains disproportionately high numbers from certain social groups and hence inevitably exhibits these groups‟ cultural characteristics and preferences. We suggest that people generally, whether currently unemployed or not, are willing to undertake some kinds of work but not others, and that there is considerable diversity in attitudes towards various jobs and towards being unemployed. Therefore, our research focused on how all respondents answered the agree/disagree statement „Having almost any job is better than being unemployed‟. Of the groups most at risk of unemployment, single people were found to be significantly anti-employment, and those with low academic attainment significantly pro-employment, but there was little or no significance in men, the young, or working class people. Of the numerous living circumstances, lifestyle choice, attitude, and demographic variables included in the study, the following were not only found to have strong associations with agreeing with the statement in all three datasets, but also emerged as significant each time in the logistic regression analysis: those with authoritarian, politically right wing and traditional moral attitudes, the employed not unemployed, and people living in multiple occupancy households and mortgaged (not rented) accommodation. The employed/unemployed finding indicates that survey items offering a choice between employment (including unattractive jobs) and unemployment show unemployed people to be less pro-employment than measures that do not. This is important because how people exercise that choice is important to the debate about whether or not attaching more conditions to the receipt of unemployment benefits is justified

What can we learn about monetary policy transparency from financial market data?

In this paper we investigate the impact of UK macroeconomic news announcements on selected futures contracts and exchange rates. We include a wide set of scheduled public news announcements in our study, including official interest rate decisions. We investigate whether the reaction to these announcements has changed since the Bank of England was granted operational independence in May 1997. Our results indicate that there may well have been changes in the way that financial markets incorporate key economic data into securities prices. In particular, we document an increase in the speed of the reaction to interest rate announcements, but also some evidence of a fall in the size of the full reaction. -- In diesem Papier wird untersucht, wie in Großbritannien makroökonomische Neuigkeiten auf ausgewählte Terminkontrakte und Wechselkurse wirken. In der Studie wird eine breite Palette regelmäßig veröffentlichter Daten betrachtet, einschließlich der Entscheidungen über die Notenbankzinsen. Wir untersuchen, ob die Reaktionen auf diese Ankündigungen sich geändert haben, seit der Bank von England im Mai 1997 operationelle Unabhängigkeit gewährt worden ist. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass durchaus Veränderungen zu verzeichnen sind in der Art und Weise, wie auf den Finanzmärkten ökonomische Daten die Wertpapierpreise ändern. Insbesondere dokumentieren wir, dass die Reaktionen auf Zinsänderungen schneller erfolgen aber auch, dass die Stärke der Reaktionen geringer ist.

Towards a new model for early warning signals for systemic financial fragility and near crises: an application to OECD countries

Using a signal extraction framework and looking at OECD countries over a 30 year period this paper attempts to identify a number of variables significant in predicting near-crises as a pre-cursor to full-fledged crises. These include growth in pension assets as an indicator for the development of liquidity bubbles, equity market dividend yields as a proxy for corporate balance sheet health, banking sector assets growth and relative size to GDP. We also study the development of asset price bubbles through an equity markets indicator and a house price indicator. Finally we also look at a banking sector funding stability indicator and liquidity indicator on a micro-level. Simultaneously, a dynamic research design improves on previous static set-ups and enhances the model predictive power and applicability to different time periods. This paper shows that as early as 2004, clear signals were being given for a number of countries that vulnerabilities were building up with out-of-sample performance better than in-sample in terms of overall noise to signal ratios, showing a significant improvement compared to earlier work. EWS design has significant implications for financial stability and financial regulation.financial crises, financial fragility, liquidity bubbles, early warning signals, financial stability, financial regulation

An EVT Approach to calculating Risk Capital Requirements

This paper investigates the frequency of extreme events for three LIFFE futures contracts for the calculation of minimum capital risk requirements (MCRRs). We propose a semi-parametric approach where the tails are modelled by the Generalised Pareto Distribution and smaller risks are captured by the empirical distribution function. We compare the capital requirements from this approach with those calculated from the unconditional density and from a conditional density- a GARCH(1,1) model. Our primary finding is that for both in-sample and hold-out samples, our extreme value approach yields superior results than either of the other two models which do not explicitly model the tails of the return distribution. Since the use of these internal models will be permitted under the EC-CAD II, they could be widely adopted in the near future by European financial institutions for determining capital adequacies. Hence, close scrutiny of competing models is required to avoid a potentially costly misallocation of capital resources while at the same time ensuring the safety of the financial system.Minimum Capital Risk Requirments, Generalised Pareto Distribution, GARCH models

What do foreigners want? Evidence from targets in bank cross-border M&As

Given the recent traumatic events in the world’s banking industry it is important to understand what drives bankers to create larger and larger, often multinational, banking groups. In this paper we investigate whether the targets in cross-border bank M&As are materially different from those banks targeted in domestic M&A deals. To address this question we use a sample of over 24,000 banks from more than 100 countries. We begin by estimating the probability that a bank will be a M&A target; this probability is based upon both bank specific and country specific characteristics. The sample also naturally includes banks that were not involved in any M&A deal, this set of banks acts as a control sample for the study. We then estimate a multinomial model that distinguishes between (i) targets in domestic operations, (ii) targets in cross-border operations and (iii) non-targets. The main message of the paper is that, with few exceptions, domestic and foreign investors target similar banks. In particular, contrary to what one might expect, bank size does not affect differently the probability of being a domestic or a cross-border target, but it has a positive and highly significant effect in both cases. What differs between national and international M&As are the characteristics of the countries where banks operate. On average, banking systems characterized by lower leverage, higher cost inefficiency and lower liquidity are more likely to be targets of cross-border acquisitions, while none of this characteristics affects the likelihood of being acquired domestically.M&As, M&Asbank internationalisation

Genetic control of immune responsiveness to the avian coccidium Eimeria tenella

Specific inbred lines of chickens expressing different major histocompatibility (B) complex haplotypes were studied for their immunogenetic response to the avian coccidium Eimeria tenella and genetically-engineered antigens cloned from this parasite species. The relative influence of the B-F vs. B-G chromosomal regions on innnate resistance and immunity to E. tenella was studied among six B-F/B-G recombinant hosts. F\sb1 chicks of similar genotypes, B\sp{\rm R3} and B\sp{\rm R4} (B\sp{\rm F2-G23}B\sp{17}), gained significantly more weight than those with B\sp{\rm R1}(B\sp{\rm F24-G23}B\sp{17}) and B\sp{\rm R5} (B\sp{\rm F21-G19}B\sp{17}) following exposure to a single high dose of 25,000 oocysts, although no differences in cecal lesion scores were detected. Following exposure to a single low dose of 2500 oocysts, F\sb1 chicks B\sp{\rm R3} and B\sp{\rm R4} again gained significantly more weight and had significantly lower lesion scores compared to B\sp{\rm R1} or B\sp{\rm R5} F\sb1 chicks. Acquired immunity in F\sb2 homozygous recombinant chicks was studied using five consecutive daily exposures of 500 oocysts followed 21 days later by challenge with 10,000 oocysts. B\sp{\rm R5}(B\sp{\rm F21-G19}) and B\sp{\rm R6}(B\sp{\rm F21-G23}) homozygous chicks, both carrying the B-F\sp{21} allele, showed significant protection in terms of reduced lesion scores. The immunogenicity of recombinant E. tenella coccidial antigens 5401 and 3264 was studied in 6\sb1\cdot B congenic chickens derived from B\sp2B\sp2 and B\sp5B\sp5 parents segregating for haplotypes B\sp2 and B\sp5. In separate experiments, antigens 5401 and 3264, both inoculated subcutaneously in Freund\u27s complete adjuvant, elicited a protective response only in B\sp5B\sp5 chickens. B\sp2B\sp2 and B\sp5B\sp5 chickens also responded differently in serum IgG titer and in the magnitude of lymphocyte proliferation. Western blot analysis showed differential labeling of low molecular weight proteins. Antibodies raised against antigen 3264 strongly labeled only the anterior portion of the sporozoite stage of E. tenella. In contrast, these same antibodies strongly labeled only the posterior portion of second generation merozoites, while first generation merozoites were only slightly labeled, if at all. In addition, a single heavily labeled nodule, possibly an immune complex, was observed on the posterior surface of second generation merozoites. Considered together, these findings demonstrate further that genetic responsiveness is linked to the major histocompatibility complex and has a profound influence on the host response to the parasite as well as the efficacy of recombinant protozoan vaccines

REGIONAL DIFFERENCES IN THE CONTRIBUTION OF OFF-FARM WORK TO INCOME INEQUALITY

This paper uses the concept of the Gini Coefficient and data from the 1991 Farm Costs and Returns Survey (FCRS) to measure the role of off-farm income and that of other income sources in the size distribution of farm operator households' total personal income. Disaggregated FCRS data by region and by level of participation in off-farm employment show that nonparticipating farm operator households have, as a group, higher income inequality than participating households. The results also indicate that, irrespective of the off-farm work status of the farm operator household, the distribution of income among households in the North Central region is least unequal and that in the West is most unequal.Labor and Human Capital,

Measurement of cruelty in children: The Cruelty to Animals Inventory

Cruelty to animals may be a particularly pernicious aspect of problematic child development. Progress in understanding the development of the problem is limited due to the complex nature of cruelty as a construct, and limitations with current assessment measures. The Children and Animals Inventory (CAI) was developed as a brief self- and parent-report measure of F. R. Ascione''s (1993) 9 parameters of cruelty. The CAI emerged as a reliable, stable, and readily utilized measure of cruelty using parent and child reports. Children (especially the older children) reported higher rates of cruelty than their parents and boys reported more cruelty than girls. Self- and parent-reports showed good convergence with independent observations of cruelty versus nurturance during free interactions with domestic animals. The results indicate that cruelty to animals can be reliably measured using brief child and parent report measures

Lamellar Structures of MUC2-Rich Mucin: A Potential Role in Governing the Barrier and Lubricating Functions of Intestinal Mucus

Mucus is a ubiquitous feature of mammalian wet epithelial surfaces, where it lubricates and forms a selective barrier that excludes a range of particulates, including pathogens, while hosting a diverse commensal microflora. The major polymeric component of mucus is mucin, a large glycoprotein formed by several MUC gene products, with MUC2 expression dominating intestinal mucus. A satisfactory answer to the question of how these molecules build a dynamic structure capable of playing such a complex role has yet to be found, as recent reports of distinct layers of chemically identical mucin in the colon and anomalously rapid transport of nanoparticles through mucus have emphasized. Here we use atomic force microscopy (AFM) to image a MUC2-rich mucus fraction isolated from pig jejunum. In the freshly isolated mucin fraction, we find direct evidence for trigonally linked structures, and their assembly into lamellar networks with a distribution of pore sizes from 20 to 200 nm. The networks are two-dimensional, with little interaction between lamellae. The existence of persistent cross-links between individual mucin polypeptides is consistent with a non-self-interacting lamellar model for intestinal mucus structure, rather than a physically entangled polymer network. We only observe collapsed entangled structures in purified mucin that has been stored in nonphysiological conditions