Hardness-based plasticity and fracture model for quench-hardenable boron steel (22MnB5)

A comprehensive strain hardening and fracture characterization of different grades of boron steel blanks has been performed, providing the foundation for the implementation into the modular material model (MMM) framework developed by Volkswagen Group Research for an explicit crash code. Due to the introduction of hardness-based interpolation rules for the characterized main grades, the hardening and fracture behavior is solely described by the underlying Vickers hardness. In other words, knowledge of the hardness distribution within a hot-formed component is enough to set up the newly developed computational model. The hardness distribution can be easily introduced via an experimentally measured hardness curve or via hardness mapping from a corresponding hot-forming simulation. For industrial application using rather coarse and computationally inexpensive shell element meshes, the user material model has been extended by a necking/post-necking model with reduced mesh-dependency as an additional failure mode. The present paper mainly addresses the necking/post-necking model

Identification of plasticity model parameters of the heat-affected zone in resistance spot welded martensitic boron steel

A material model is developed that predicts the plastic behavior of fully hardened 22MnB5 base material and the heat-affected zone (HAZ) material found around its corresponding resistance spot welds (RSWs). Main focus will be on an accurate representation of strain fields up to high strains, which is required for subsequent calibration of the fracture behavior of both base material and HAZ. The plastic be-havior of the base material is calibrated using standard tensile tests and notched tensile tests and an inverse FEM optimization algorithm. The plastic behavior of the HAZ material is characterized using a specially designed tensile specimen with a HAZ in the gage section. The exact location of the HAZ relative to the center of the RSW is determined using microhardness measurements, which are also used for mapping of the material properties into an FE-model of the specimen. With the parameters of the base material known, and by assuming a linear relation between the hardness and the plasticity model parameters of base material and HAZ, the unknown HAZ parameters are determined using inverse FEM optimization. A coupon specimen with HAZ is used to validate the model at hand

Incoherent dynamics of vibrating single-molecule transistors

We study the tunneling conductance of nano-scale quantum ``shuttles'' in connection with a recent experiment (H. Park et al., Nature, 407, 57 (2000)) in which a vibrating C^60 molecule was apparently functioning as the island of a single electron transistor (SET). While our calculation starts from the same model of previous work (D. Boese and H. Schoeller, Europhys. Lett. 54, 66(2001)) we obtain quantitatively different dynamics. Calculated I-V curves exhibit most features present in experimental data with a physically reasonable parameter set, and point to a strong dependence of the oscillator's potential on the electrostatics of the island region. We propose that in a regime where the electric field due to the bias voltage itself affects island position, a "catastrophic" negative differential conductance (NDC) may be realized. This effect is directly attributable to the magnitude of overlap of final and initial quantum oscillator states, and as such represents experimental control over quantum transitions of the oscillator via the macroscopically controllable bias voltage.Comment: 6 pages, LaTex, 6 figure

Cost-Utility of Mindfulness-Based Stress Reduction for Fibromyalgia versus a Multicomponent Intervention and Usual Care: A 12-Month Randomized Controlled Trial (EUDAIMON Study)

Fibromyalgia (FM) is a prevalent, chronic, disabling, pain syndrome that implies high healthcare costs. Economic evaluations of potentially effective treatments for FM are needed. The aim of this study was to analyze the cost-utility of Mindfulness-Based Stress Reduction (MBSR) as an add-on to treatment-as-usual (TAU) for patients with FM compared to an adjuvant multicomponent intervention (FibroQoL) and to TAU. We performed an economic evaluation alongside a 12 month, randomized, controlled trial; data from 204 (68 per study arm) of the 225 patients (90.1%) were included in the cost-utility analyses, which were conducted both under the government and the public healthcare system perspectives. The main outcome measures were the EuroQol (EQ-5D-5L) for assessing Quality-Adjusted Life Years (QALYs) and improvements in health-related quality of life, and the Client Service Receipt Inventory (CSRI) for estimating direct and indirect costs. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were also calculated. Two sensitivity analyses (intention-to-treat, ITT, and per protocol, PPA) were conducted. The results indicated that MBSR achieved a significant reduction in costs compared to the other study arms (p < 0.05 in the completers sample), especially in terms of indirect costs and primary healthcare services. It also produced a significant incremental effect compared to TAU in the ITT sample (Delta QALYs = 0.053, p < 0.05, where QALYs represents quality-adjusted life years). Overall, our findings support the efficiency of MBSR over FibroQoL and TAU specifically within a Spanish public healthcare context

Recon3D enables a three-dimensional view of gene variation in human metabolism

Genome-scale network reconstructions have helped uncover the molecular basis of metabolism. Here we present Recon3D, a computational resource that includes three-dimensional (3D) metabolite and protein structure data and enables integrated analyses of metabolic functions in humans. We use Recon3D to functionally characterize mutations associated with disease, and identify metabolic response signatures that are caused by exposure to certain drugs. Recon3D represents the most comprehensive human metabolic network model to date, accounting for 3,288 open reading frames (representing 17% of functionally annotated human genes), 13,543 metabolic reactions involving 4,140 unique metabolites, and 12,890 protein structures. These data provide a unique resource for investigating molecular mechanisms of human metabolism. Recon3D is available at http://vmh.life

Extent and Causes of Chesapeake Bay Warming

Coastal environments such as the Chesapeake Bay have long been impacted by eutrophication stressors resulting from human activities, and these impacts are now being compounded by global warming trends. However, there are few studies documenting long-term estuarine temperature change and the relative contributions of rivers, the atmosphere, and the ocean. In this study, Chesapeake Bay warming, since 1985, is quantified using a combination of cruise observations and model outputs, and the relative contributions to that warming are estimated via numerical sensitivity experiments with a watershed–estuarine modeling system. Throughout the Bay’s main stem, similar warming rates are found at the surface and bottom between the late 1980s and late 2010s (0.02 +/- 0.02C/year, mean +/- 1 standard error), with elevated summer rates (0.04 +/- 0.01C/year) and lower rates of winter warming (0.01 +/- 0.01C/year). Most (~85%) of this estuarine warming is driven by atmospheric effects. The secondary influence of ocean warming increases with proximity to the Bay mouth, where it accounts for more than half of summer warming in bottom waters. Sea level rise has slightly reduced summer warming, and the influence of riverine warming has been limited to the heads of tidal tributaries. Future rates of warming in Chesapeake Bay will depend not only on global atmospheric trends, but also on regional circulation patterns in mid-Atlantic waters, which are currently warming faster than the atmosphere. Supporting model data available at: https://doi.org/10.25773/c774-a36

Non-motor symptom burden in patients with Parkinson's disease with impulse control disorders and compulsive behaviours : results from the COPPADIS cohort

The study was aimed at analysing the frequency of impulse control disorders (ICDs) and compulsive behaviours (CBs) in patients with Parkinson's disease (PD) and in control subjects (CS) as well as the relationship between ICDs/CBs and motor, nonmotor features and dopaminergic treatment in PD patients. Data came from COPPADIS-2015, an observational, descriptive, nationwide (Spain) study. We used the validated Questionnaire for Impulsive-Compulsive Disorders in Parkinson's Disease-Rating Scale (QUIP-RS) for ICD/CB screening. The association between demographic data and ICDs/CBs was analyzed in both groups. In PD, this relationship was evaluated using clinical features and treatment-related data. As result, 613 PD patients (mean age 62.47 ± 9.09 years, 59.87% men) and 179 CS (mean age 60.84 ± 8.33 years, 47.48% men) were included. ICDs and CBs were more frequent in PD (ICDs 12.7% vs. 1.6%, p < 0.001; CBs 7.18% vs. 1.67%, p = 0.01). PD patients had more frequent previous ICDs history, premorbid impulsive personality and antidepressant treatment (p < 0.05) compared with CS. In PD, patients with ICDs/CBs presented younger age at disease onset, more frequent history of previous ICDs and premorbid personality (p < 0.05), as well as higher comorbidity with nonmotor symptoms, including depression and poor quality of life. Treatment with dopamine agonists increased the risk of ICDs/CBs, being dose dependent (p < 0.05). As conclusions, ICDs and CBs were more frequent in patients with PD than in CS. More nonmotor symptoms were present in patients with PD who had ICDs/CBs compared with those without. Dopamine agonists have a prominent effect on ICDs/CBs, which could be influenced by dose

Mortality forecasting in Colombia from abridged life tables by sex

[EN] BACKGROUND: An adequate forecasting model of mortality that allows an analysis of different population changes is a topic of interest for countries in demographic transition. Phenomena such as the reduction of mortality, ageing, and the increase in life expectancy are extremely useful in the planning of public policies that seek to promote the economic and social development of countries. To our knowledge, this paper is one of the first to evaluate the performance of mortality forecasting models applied to abridged life tables. OBJECTIVE: Select a mortality model that best describes and forecasts the characteristics of mortality in Colombia when only abridged life tables are available. DATA AND METHOD: We used Colombian abridged life tables for the period 1973-2005 with data from the Latin American Human Mortality Database. Different mortality models to deal with modeling and forecasting probability of death are presented in this study. For the comparison of mortality models, two criteria were analyzed: graphical residuals analysis and the hold-out method to evaluate the predictive performance of the models, applying different goodness of fit measures. RESULTS: Only three models did not have convergence problems: Lee-Carter (LC), Lee-Carter with two terms (LC2), and Age-Period-Cohort (APC) models. All models fit better for women, the improvement of LC2 on LC is mostly for central ages for men, and the APC model's fit is worse than the other two. The analysis of the standardized deviance residuals allows us to deduce that the models that reasonably fit the Colombian mortality data are LC and LC2. The major residuals correspond to children's ages and later ages for both sexes. CONCLUSION: The LC and LC2 models present better goodness of fit, identifying the principal characteristics of mortality for Colombia.Mortality forecasting from abridged life tables by sex has clear added value for studying differences between developing countries and convergence/divergence of demographic changes.Support for the research presented in this paper was provided by a grant from the Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad of Spain, project no. MTM2013-45381-P.Diaz-Rojo, G.; Debón Aucejo, AM.; Giner-Bosch, V. (2018). Mortality forecasting in Colombia from abridged life tables by sex. Genus. Journal of Population Sciences (Online). 74(15):1-23. https://doi.org/10.1186/s41118-018-0038-6S1237415Aburto, J.M., & García-Guerrero, V.M. (2015). El modelo aditivo doble multiplicativo. Una aplicacion a la mortalidad mexicaná. Papeles de Población, 21(84), 9–44.Acosta, K., & Romero, J. (2014). Cambios recientes en las principales causas de mortalidad en Colombia. Technical report: Banco de la Banco de la República- Serie Documentos de Trabajo Sobre Economía Regional.Aguilar, E. (2013). Estimación y proyección de la mortalidad para Costa Rica con la aplicación del método Lee-Carter con dos variantes. Población y, Salud en Mesoamérica, 11(1), 3–24.Andreozzi, L (2012). Estimación y pronósticos de la mortalidad de Argentina utilizando el modelo de Lee-Carter. Revista de la Sociedad Argentina de Estadística, 10(1), 21–43.Andreozzi, L, & Blaconá, MT (2011). Estimación y pronóstico de las tasas de mortalidad y la esperanza de vida en la República Argentina. In Proceedings of Anales de las Decimosextas Jornadas Investigaciones en la Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Estadística. Universidad Nacional de Rosario, Argentina.Andres, V, Millossovich, P, Vladimir, K (2018). StMoMo: Stochastic Mortality Modeling in R. Journal of Statistical Software, 84(3), 1–38.Belliard, M., & Williams, I. (2013). Proyección estocástica de la mortalidad. Una aplicación de Lee-Carter en la Argentina. Revista Latinoamericana de Población, 7(13), 129–148.Bertranou, E. (2008). Tendencias demográficas y protección social en América Latina y el Caribe: CEPAL. http://repositorio.cepal.org/handle/11362/7224 . Accessed 8 Aug 2017.Blaconá, M.T, & Andreozzi, L. (2014). Análisis de la mortalidad por edad y sexo mediante modelos para datos funcionales. Estadística, 66(186–187), 65–89.Blum, A., Kalai, A., Langford, J. (1999). Beating the hold-out: bounds for k-fold and progressive cross-validation. In Proceedings of the twelfth annual Conference on Computational Learning Theory. ACM, (pp. 203–208).Booth, H., Maindonald, J., Smith, L. (2002). Applying Lee-Carter under conditions of variable mortality decline. Population Studies, 56(3), 325–336.Booth, H., & Tickle, L. (2008). Mortality modelling and forecasting: a review of methods. Annals of Actuarial Science, 3(1–2), 3–43.Butt, Z., Haberman, S., Shang, H.L. (2014). ilc: Lee-Carter mortality models using iterative fitting algorithms. http://cran.r-project.org/package=ilc .Cairns, A.J., Blake, D., Dowd, K. (2006). A two-factor model for stochastic mortality with parameter uncertainty: theory and calibration. Journal of Risk and Insurance, 73(4), 687–718.Cairns, A.J., Blake, D., Dowd, K., Coughlan, G.D., Epstein, D., Khalaf-Allah, M. (2011). Mortality density forecasts: an analysis of six stochastic mortality models. Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, 48(3), 355–367.Cairns, A.J., Blake, D., Dowd, K., Coughlan, G.D., Epstein, D., Ong, A., Balevich, I. (2009). A quantitative comparison of stochastic mortality models using data from England and Wales and the United States. North American Actuarial Journal, 13(1), 1–35.Canudas-Romo, V. (2008). The modal age at death and the shifting mortality hypothesis. Demographic Research, 19(30), 1179–1204.Carfora, M.F., Cutillo, L., Orlando, A. (2017). A quantitative comparison of stochastic mortality models on Italian population data. Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, 112, 198–214.Currie, I.D., Durban, M., Eilers, P.H.C. (2006). Generalized linear array models with applications to multidimensional smoothing. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series B (Statistical Methodology), 68(2), 259–280.Debón, A., Martínez-Ruiz, F., Montes, F. (2012). Temporal evolution of mortality indicators: application to Spanish data. North American Actuarial Journal, 16(3), 364–377.Debón, A., Montes, F., Puig, F. (2008). Modelling and forecasting mortality in Spain. European Journal of Operation Research, 189(3), 624–637.Debón, A., Martínez-Ruiz, F., Montes, F. (2010). A geostatistical approach for dynamic life tables: the effect of mortality on remaining lifetime and annuities. Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, 47(3), 327–336.Díaz, G., & Debón, A. (2016). Tendencias y comportamiento de la mortalidad en Colombia entre 1973 y 2005. Estadística Española, 58(191), 277–300.García-Guerrero, V.M., & Mellado, M.O. (2012). Proyección estocástica de la mortalidad mexicana por medio del método de Lee-Carter. Estudios Demográficos y Urbanos, 27(2), 409–448.Garfield, R., & Llanten, C. (2004). The public health context of violence in Colombia. Revista Panamericana de Salud Pública, 16(4), 266–271.Haberman, S. (2011). A comparative study of parametric mortality projection models. Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, 48(1), 35–55.Holford, T.R. (2006). Approaches to fitting age-period-cohort models with unequal intervals. Statistics in Medicine, 25(6), 977–993.Hunt, A., & Villegas, A.M. (2015). Robustness and convergence in the Lee-Carter model with cohort effects. Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, 64, 186–202.Hyndman, R.J. (2016). Forecast: forecasting functions for time series and linear models. R package version 7.3. https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=forecast .Hyndman, R.J, Booth, H., Tickle, L., Maindonald, J. (2014). Demography: forecasting mortality, fertility, migration and population data. R package version 1.18. https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=demography .Hyndman, R.J., & Ullah, M.S (2007). Robust forecasting of mortality and fertility rates: a functional data approach. Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, 51(10), 4942–4956.Kennes, T. (2017). The convergence and robustness of cohort extensions of mortality models. MaRBLe, 1, 36–53.Lee, R., & Carter, L. (1992). Modelling and forecasting U.S. mortality. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 87, 659–671.Lee, R., & Rofman, R. (1994). Modelación y proyección de la mortalidad en Chile. Notas de Poblacion, 6(59), 183–213.Lee, W. (1997). Characterizing exposure-disease association in human populations using the Lorenz curve and Gini index. Statistics in Medicine, 16(7), 729–739.Levitt, S., & Rubio, M. (2000). Understanding crime in Colombia and what can be done about it. Technical Report 20, FEDESARROLLO.Llorca, J., Prieto, M.D., Alvarez, C.F., Delgado-Rodriguez, M. (1998). Age differential mortality in Spain, 1900–1991. Journal of Epidemiology & Community Health, 52, 259–261.Llorca, J, Prieto, M.D, Delgado-Rodriguez, M (2000). Medición de las desigualdades en la edad de muerte: cálculo del índice de Gini a partir de las tablas de mortalidad. Revista Española de Salud Pública, 74(1), 5–12.Lora, E. (2008). Técnicas de medición económica. Metodología y aplicaciones en Colombia, Ed. Siglo Veintiuno XXI y Fedesarrollo, fourth edition. Bogotá D.C.: Alfaomega Colombiana S.A.Ochoa, C.A. (2015). El modelo Lee-Carter para estimar y pronosticar mortalidad: una aplicación para Colombia. Master’s thesis: Universidad Nacional de Colombia-Sede Medellín.O’hare, C., & Li, Y. (2017). Modelling mortality: are we heading in the right direction?Applied Economics, 49(2), 170–187.Ornelas, A. (2015). La mortalidad y la longevidad en la cuantificación del riesgo actuarial para la población de México. PhD thesis: Universitat de Barcelona.Remund, A., Camarda, C.G., Riffe, T., et al. (2017). A cause-of-death decomposition of the young adult mortality hump. Technical report. Rostock, Germany: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research.Renshaw, A.E., & Haberman, S. (2003). Lee-Carter mortality forecasting with age-specific enhancement. Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, 33(2), 255–272.Renshaw, A.E., & Haberman, S. (2006). A cohort-based extensionto the Lee-Carter model for mortality reduction factors. Insurance: Mathematic and Economics, 38(3), 556–570.Reyes, A.R. (2010). Una aproximación al costo fiscal en pensiones como consecuencia del envejecimiento de la población en Colombia y el efecto de la sobre-mortalidad masculina. Master’s thesis: Universidad Nacional de Colombia.Richards, S. (2008). Detecting year-of-birth mortality patterns with limited data. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A (Statistics in Society), 171(1), 279–298.Rodríguez, J. (2007). Desigualdades socioeconómicas entre departamentos y su asociación con indicadores de mortalidad en Colombia en 2000. Rev Panam Salud Publica, 21(2/3), 111–124.Shkolnikov, V.M., Andreev, E.M., Begun, A. (2003). Gini coefficient as a life table function: computation from discrete data, decomposition of differences and empirical examples. Demographic Research, 8, 305–358.Singh, A., Shukla, A., Ram, F., Kumar, K. (2017). Trends in inequality in length of life in India: a decomposition analysis by age and causes of death. Genus, 73(1), 5.Tabeau, E. (2001). A review of demographic forecasting models for mortality. In: Tabeau, E., van den Berg Jeths A., Heathcote C. (Eds.) In Forecasting Mortality in Developed Countries. European Studies of Population, vol 9. Springer, Dordrecht, (pp. 1–32).Turner, H., & Firth, D. (2015). gnm: Generalized nonlinear models in R. R package version 1.0-8. https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=gnm .Urdinola, B.P., & Queiroz, B.L. (2017). Latin American Human Mortality Database. http://www.lamortalidad.org . Accessed 21 Nov 2015

Search for Gravitational Waves Associated with Gamma-Ray Bursts Detected by Fermi and Swift during the LIGO-Virgo Run O3b

We search for gravitational-wave signals associated with gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) detected by the Fermi and Swift satellites during the second half of the third observing run of Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo (2019 November 1 15:00 UTC-2020 March 27 17:00 UTC). We conduct two independent searches: A generic gravitational-wave transients search to analyze 86 GRBs and an analysis to target binary mergers with at least one neutron star as short GRB progenitors for 17 events. We find no significant evidence for gravitational-wave signals associated with any of these GRBs. A weighted binomial test of the combined results finds no evidence for subthreshold gravitational-wave signals associated with this GRB ensemble either. We use several source types and signal morphologies during the searches, resulting in lower bounds on the estimated distance to each GRB. Finally, we constrain the population of low-luminosity short GRBs using results from the first to the third observing runs of Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo. The resulting population is in accordance with the local binary neutron star merger rate. © 2022. The Author(s). Published by the American Astronomical Society