Empirical models, rules, and optimization

This paper considers supply decisions by firms in a dynamic setting with adjustment costs and compares the behavior of an optimal control model to that of a rule-based system which relaxes the assumption that agents are explicit optimizers. In our approach, the economic agent uses believably simple rules in coping with complex situations. We estimate rules using an artificially generated sample obtained by running repeated simulations of a dynamic optimal control model of a firm's hiring/firing decisions. We show that (i) agents using heuristics can behave as if they were seeking rationally to maximize their dynamic returns; (ii) the approach requires fewer behavioral assumptions relative to dynamic optimization and the assumptions made are based on economically intuitive theoretical results linking rule adoption to uncertainty; (iii) the approach delineates the domain of applicability of maximization hypotheses and describes the behavior of agents in situations of economic disequilibrium. The approach adopted uses concepts from fuzzy control theory. An agent, instead of optimizing, follows Fuzzy Associative Memory (FAM) rules which, given input and output data, can be estimated and used to approximate any non-linear dynamic process. Empirical results indicate that the fuzzy rule-based system performs extremely well in approximating optimal dynamic behavior in situations with limited noise.Decision-making. ,econometric models ,TMD ,

Updating and estimating a Social Accounting Matrix using cross entropy methods

The problem in estimating a social accounting matrix (SAM) for a recent year is to find an efficient and cost-effective way to incorporate and reconcile information from a variety of sources, including data from prior years. Based on information theory, the paper presents a flexible “cross entropy” (CE) approach to estimating a consistent SAM starting from inconsistent data estimated with error, a common experience in many countries. The method represents an efficient information processing rule—using only and all information available. It allows incorporating errors in variables, inequality constraints, and prior knowledge about any part of the SAM. An example is presented applying the CE approach to data from Mozambique, using a Monte Carlo approach to compare the CE approach to the standard RAS method and to evaluate the gains in precision from utilizing additional information.Social accounting Mathematical models. ,Mozambique. ,Economics Models. ,Entropy (Information theory) ,

Food security and trade negotiations in the World Trade Organization

An important issue in WTO trade negotiations is whether further liberalization of trade and agricultural policies may help or hinder food security in WTO member countries, especially the developing countries. The WTO recognizes various classifications of countries: developed, developing, least developed (LDC) and net food importing developing (NFIDC). How well do these categories capture issues of food security? This paper employs various methods of cluster analysis (including an approach based on fuzzy sets) and data for 167 countries to identify groups of countries categorized according to five measures of food security: food production per capita, the ratio of total exports to food imports, calories per capita, protein per capita, and the share of the non-agricultural population share. The analysis identifies 12 distinct clusters characterized by similarities and differences across the various measures. The analysis suggests that the LDC category consists of largely food insecure countries, but that there also are food insecure countries that are not LDCs. NFIDCs is less precise as an indicator of food vulnerability, with more than a third of those countries not falling under any of the food insecure groups. Also, the general category of “developing countries” is very heterogeneous and is not very useful if the focus is on issues of food security. Finally, our typology shows that all developed countries are included in food secure categories.Food production. ,Food security. ,Trade liberalization. ,World Trade Organization. ,Trade policy. ,

Cellular expression and crystal structure of the murine cytomegalovirus MHC-Iv glycoprotein, m153

Mouse cytomegalovirus (MCMV), a β-herpesvirus that establishes latent and persistent infections in mice, is a valuable model for studying complex virus-host interactions. MCMV encodes the m145 family of putative immunoevasins with predicted MHC-I structure. Functions attributed to some family members include downregulation of host MHC-I (m152) and NKG2D ligands (m145, m152, m155) and interaction with inhibitory or activating NK receptors (m157). We present the cellular, biochemical and structural characterization of m153, which is a heavily glycosylated homodimer, that does not require β2m or peptide, and is expressed at the surface of MCMV-infected cells. Its 2.4 Å crystal structure confirms that this compact molecule preserves an MHC-I-like fold and reveals a novel mode of dimerization, confirmed by site-directed mutagenesis, and a distinctive disulfide-stabilized extended amino terminus. The structure provides a useful framework for comparative analysis of the divergent members of the m145 family

IPS Infection Prevention Society Research Grant Final Report

Infection prevention and control (IPC) practice can help to reduce healthcare-associated infections (HCAIs) and assist in the fight against antimicrobial resistance (Review on Antimicrobial Resistance, 2016). It is essential, therefore, that all healthcare staff, including healthcare students, have the knowledge and understanding of IPC practices. Research indicates that more traditional IPC training approaches, such as key lectures, do not always translate into good IPC practice (Ward, 2011). Healthcare professional students often learn clinical practice within a simulated environment, making learning more realistic through the use of scenario-based situations, role play and the use of manikins to practice care in low risk settings. In this instance, students tend to be more actively engaged in their learning. In theory, this increases the impact that learning has on clinical practice

Type III Einstein-Yang-Mills solutions

We construct two distinct classes of exact type III solutions of the D=4 Einstein-Yang-Mills system. The solutions are embeddings of the non-abelian plane waves in spacetimes in Kundt's class. Reduction of the solutions to type N leads to generalized $pp$ and Kundt waves. The geodesic equations are briefly discussed.Comment: revtex, 4 pages, minor changes, some factors and references corrected, footnote adde

Improvements to 232-thorium, 230-thorium, and 231-protactinium analysis in seawater arising from GEOTRACES intercalibration

The GEOTRACES program requires the analysis of large numbers of seawater samples for ^(232)Th, ^(230)Th, and ^(231)Pa. During the GEOTRACES international intercalibration exercise, we encountered unexpected difficulties with recovery and contamination of these isotopes, ^(232)Th in particular. Experiments were carried out to identify the source of these issues, leading to a more streamlined and efficient procedure. The two particular problems that we identified and corrected were (1) frits in columns supplied by Bio-Rad Laboratories caused loss of Th during column chemistry and (2) new batches of AG1-X8 resin supplied by Bio-Rad Laboratories released more than 100 pg of ^(232)Th during elution of sample. To improve yields and blanks, we implemented a series of changes including switching to Eichrom anion exchange resin (100-200 μm mesh) and Environmental Express columns. All Th and Pa samples were analyzed on a Neptune multi-collector inductively-coupled-plasma mass spectrometer (MC-ICP-MS) using peak hopping of ^(230)Th and ^(229)Th on the central SEM, with either ^(232)Th, ^(236)U (or both) used to monitor for beam intensity. We used in-house laboratory standards to check for machine reproducibility, and the GEOTRACES intercalibration standard to check for accuracy. Over a 1-y period, the 2 s.d. reproducibility on the GEOTRACES SW STD 2010-1 was 2.5% for ^(230)Th, 1.8% for ^(232)Th, and 4% for ^(231)Pa. The lessons learned during this intercalibration process will be of value to those analyzing U-Th-Pa and rare earth elements as part of the GEOTRACES program as well as those using U-series elements in other applications that require high yields and low blanks, such as geochronology

57 second oscillations in Nova Centauri 1986 (V842 Cen)

High speed photometry in 2008 shows that the light curve of V842 Cen possesses a coherent modulation at 56.825 s, with sidebands at 56.598 s and 57.054 s. These have appeared since this nova remnant was observed in 2000 and 2002. We deduce that the dominant signal is the rotation period of the white dwarf primary and the sidebands are caused by reprocessing from a surface moving with an orbital period of 3.94 h. Thus V842 Cen is an intermediate polar (IP) of the DQ Herculis subclass, is the fastest rotating white dwarf among the IPs and is the third fastest known in a cataclysmic variable. As in other IPs we see no dwarf nova oscillations, but there are often quasi-periodic oscillations in the range 350 - 1500 s. There is a strong brightness modulation with a period of 3.78 h, which we attribute to negative superhumps, and there is an even stronger signal at 2.886 h which is of unknown origin but is probably a further example of that seen in GW Lib and some other systems. We used the Swift satellite to observe V842 Cen in the ultra-violet and in X-rays, although no periodic modulation was detected in the short observations. The X-ray luminosity of this object appears to be much lower than that of other IPs in which the accretion region is directly visible.Comment: 6 pages, 10 figures, accepted for publication in MNRA

Comprehensive systematic review summary: Treatment of tics in people with Tourette syndrome and chronic tic disorders

Objective To systematically evaluate the efficacy of treatments for tics and the risks associated with their use. Methods This project followed the methodologies outlined in the 2011 edition of the American Academy of Neurology\u27s guideline development process manual. We included systematic reviews and randomized controlled trials on the treatment of tics that included at least 20 participants (10 participants if a crossover trial), except for neurostimulation trials, for which no minimum sample size was required. To obtain additional information on drug safety, we included cohort studies or case series that specifically evaluated adverse drug effects in individuals with tics. Results There was high confidence that the Comprehensive Behavioral Intervention for Tics was more likely than psychoeducation and supportive therapy to reduce tics. There was moderate confidence that haloperidol, risperidone, aripiprazole, tiapride, clonidine, onabotulinumtoxinA injections, 5-ling granule, Ningdong granule, and deep brain stimulation of the globus pallidus were probably more likely than placebo to reduce tics. There was low confidence that pimozide, ziprasidone, metoclopramide, guanfacine, topiramate, and tetrahydrocannabinol were possibly more likely than placebo to reduce tics. Evidence of harm associated with various treatments was also demonstrated, including weight gain, drug-induced movement disorders, elevated prolactin levels, sedation, and effects on heart rate, blood pressure, and ECGs. Conclusions There is evidence to support the efficacy of various medical, behavioral, and neurostimulation interventions for the treatment of tics. Both the efficacy and harms associated with interventions must be considered in making treatment recommendations