Additional file 2 of Estimating transmission probability in schools for the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic in Italy

Files of data on school A. Each row corresponds to a student for which we received the filled questionnaire. In the column ‘classe’ there is the name of the class (the 1st digit is the grade); in ’nstud’ the number of students in that class; in ‘infected’ whether that student showed ILI symptoms (1) or not (0); in ‘home’ the number of household members infected before that student (−1 if infected =0); ’day’ and ’month’ the date of ILI occurrence (−1 if infected =0). (TXT 4 kb

Additional file 1 of Estimating transmission probability in schools for the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic in Italy

Supplementary material. (PDF 292 kb

Additional file 2 of Estimating transmission probability in schools for the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic in Italy

Files of data on school A. Each row corresponds to a student for which we received the filled questionnaire. In the column ‘classe’ there is the name of the class (the 1st digit is the grade); in ’nstud’ the number of students in that class; in ‘infected’ whether that student showed ILI symptoms (1) or not (0); in ‘home’ the number of household members infected before that student (−1 if infected =0); ’day’ and ’month’ the date of ILI occurrence (−1 if infected =0). (TXT 4 kb

Additional file 3 of Estimating transmission probability in schools for the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic in Italy

Files of data on school B. Explanations as for school A. (TXT 3 kb

Effect of temperature variations on <i>Cx</i>. <i>pipiens</i>.

<p>Boxplots (2.5%, 25%, 75% and 97.5% quantile and median) of predicted annual synthetic indexes associated with different temperature inputs (x-axis, from -2.5°C to +2.5°C with respect to actual records). Panel (a) shows the effect on the duration of the breeding season, defined as the difference between the week of the year when the 95% and the 5% of the cumulative captures are reached; panels (b) and (c) show respectively the effect on the timing and the value of the peak capture; panel (d) shows the effect on the total annual captures.</p

The Role of Climatic and Density Dependent Factors in Shaping Mosquito Population Dynamics: The Case of <i>Culex pipiens</i> in Northwestern Italy

<div><p><i>Culex pipiens</i> mosquito is a species widely spread across Europe and represents a competent vector for many arboviruses such as West Nile virus (WNV), which has been recently circulating in many European countries, causing hundreds of human cases. In order to identify the main determinants of the high heterogeneity in <i>Cx</i>. <i>pipiens</i> abundance observed in Piedmont region (Northwestern Italy) among different seasons, we developed a density-dependent stochastic model that takes explicitly into account the role played by temperature, which affects both developmental and mortality rates of different life stages. The model was calibrated with a Markov chain Monte Carlo approach exploring the likelihood of recorded capture data gathered in the study area from 2000 to 2011; in this way, we disentangled the role played by different seasonal eco-climatic factors in shaping the vector abundance. Illustrative simulations have been performed to forecast likely changes if temperature or density–dependent inputs would change. Our analysis suggests that inter-seasonal differences in the mosquito dynamics are largely driven by different temporal patterns of temperature and seasonal-specific larval carrying capacities. Specifically, high temperatures during early spring hasten the onset of the breeding season and increase population abundance in that period, while, high temperatures during the summer can decrease population size by increasing adult mortality. Higher densities of adult mosquitoes are associated with higher larval carrying capacities, which are positively correlated with spring precipitations. Finally, an increase in larval carrying capacity is expected to proportionally increase adult mosquito abundance.</p></div

Estimated parameters.

<p>Boxplot (2.5%, 25%, 75% and 97.5% quantile and median) of posterior distributions of parameters <i>A</i>_<i>0</i> (panel a) and <i>K</i> (panel b) estimated in different years. Histograms of relative frequencies for posterior distributions of parameters α (panel c) and β (panel d).</p

Effects of density-dependent factor variations on <i>Cx</i>. <i>pipiens</i>.

<p>Boxplots (2.5%, 25%, 75% and 97.5% quantile and median) of predicted annual synthetic indexes associated with different values of <i>K</i> (x-axis, from -50% to +50% with respect to fitted values). Panel (a) shows the effect on the duration of the breeding season; panels (b) and (c) show respectively the effect on the timing and the value of the peak capture; panel (d) shows the effect on the total annual captures.</p

Drug–Polymer Interactions in Acetaminophen/Hydroxypropylmethylcellulose Acetyl Succinate Amorphous Solid Dispersions Revealed by Multidimensional Multinuclear Solid-State NMR Spectroscopy

The bioavailability of insoluble crystalline active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) can be enhanced by formulation as amorphous solid dispersions (ASDs). One of the key factors of ASD stabilization is the formation of drug–polymer interactions at the molecular level. Here, we used a range of multidimensional and multinuclear nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) experiments to identify these interactions in amorphous acetaminophen (paracetamol)/hydroxypropylmethylcellulose acetyl succinate (HPMC-AS) ASDs at various drug loadings. At low drug loading (1H–13C through-space heteronuclear correlation experiments identify proximity between aromatic protons in acetaminophen with cellulose backbone protons in HPMC-AS. We also show that 14N–1H heteronuclear multiple quantum coherence (HMQC) experiments are a powerful approach in probing spatial interactions in amorphous materials and establish the presence of hydrogen bonds (H-bond) between the amide nitrogen of acetaminophen with the cellulose ring methyl protons in these ASDs. In contrast, at higher drug loading (40 wt %), no acetaminophen/HPMC-AS spatial proximity was identified and domains of recrystallization of amorphous acetaminophen into its crystalline form I, the most thermodynamically stable polymorph, and form II are identified. These results provide atomic scale understanding of the interactions in the acetaminophen/HPMC-AS ASD occurring via H-bond interactions

Potential Risk of Dengue and Chikungunya Outbreaks in Northern Italy Based on a Population Model of <i>Aedes albopictus</i> (Diptera: Culicidae)

<div><p>The rapid invasion and spread of <i>Aedes albopictus</i> (Skuse, 1894) within new continents and climatic ranges has created favorable conditions for the emergence of tropical arboviral diseases in the invaded areas. We used mosquito abundance data from 2014 collected across ten sites in northern Italy to calibrate a population model for <i>Aedes albopictus</i> and estimate the potential of imported human cases of chikungunya or dengue to generate the condition for their autochthonous transmission in the absence of control interventions. The model captured intra-year seasonality and heterogeneity across sites in mosquito abundance, based on local temperature patterns and the estimated site-specific mosquito habitat suitability. A robust negative correlation was found between the latter and local late spring precipitations, indicating a possible washout effect on larval breeding sites. The model predicts a significant risk of chikungunya outbreaks in most sites if a case is imported between the beginning of summer and up to mid-November, with an average outbreak probability between 4.9% and 25%, depending on the site. A lower risk is predicted for dengue, with an average probability between 4.2% and 10.8% for cases imported between mid-July and mid-September. This study shows the importance of an integrated entomological and medical surveillance for the evaluation of arboviral disease risk, which is a precondition for designing cost-effective vector control programs.</p></div