Data-based analysis, modelling and forecasting of the COVID-19 outbreak

Since the first suspected case of coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) on December 1st, 2019, in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China, a total of 40,235 confirmed cases and 909 deaths have been reported in China up to February 10, 2020, evoking fear locally and internationally. Here, based on the publicly available epidemiological data for Hubei, China from January 11 to February 10, 2020, we provide estimates of the main epidemiological parameters. In particular, we provide an estimation of the case fatality and case recovery ratios, along with their 90% confidence intervals as the outbreak evolves. On the basis of a Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered-Dead (SIDR) model, we provide estimations of the basic reproduction number (R0), and the per day infection mortality and recovery rates. By calibrating the parameters of the SIRD model to the reported data, we also attempt to forecast the evolution of the outbreak at the epicenter three weeks ahead, i.e. until February 29. As the number of infected individuals, especially of those with asymptomatic or mild courses, is suspected to be much higher than the official numbers, which can be considered only as a subset of the actual numbers of infected and recovered cases in the total population, we have repeated the calculations under a second scenario that considers twenty times the number of confirmed infected cases and forty times the number of recovered, leaving the number of deaths unchanged. Based on the reported data, the expected value of R0 as computed considering the period from the 11th of January until the 18th of January, using the official counts of confirmed cases was found to be ~4.6, while the one computed under the second scenario was found to be ~3.2. Thus, based on the SIRD simulations, the estimated average value of R0 was found to be ~2.6 based on confirmed cases and ~2 based on the second scenario. Our forecasting flashes a note of caution for the presently unfolding outbreak in China. Based on the official counts for confirmed cases, the simulations suggest that the cumulative number of infected could reach 180,000 (with a lower bound of 45,000) by February 29. Regarding the number of deaths, simulations forecast that on the basis of the up to the 10th of February reported data, the death toll might exceed 2,700 (as a lower bound) by February 29. Our analysis further reveals a significant decline of the case fatality ratio from January 26 to which various factors may have contributed, such as the severe control measures taken in Hubei, China (e.g. quarantine and hospitalization of infected individuals), but mainly because of the fact that the actual cumulative numbers of infected and recovered cases in the population most likely are much higher than the reported ones. Thus, in a scenario where we have taken twenty times the confirmed number of infected and forty times the confirmed number of recovered cases, the case fatality ratio is around ~0.15% in the total population. Importantly, based on this scenario, simulations suggest a slow down of the outbreak in Hubei at the end of February

Tracing day-zero and forecasting the COVID-19 outbreak in Lombardy, Italy: A compartmental modelling and numerical optimization approach

Introduction Italy became the second epicenter of the novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic after China, surpassing by far China’s death toll. The disease swept through Lombardy, which remained in lockdown for about two months, starting from the 8th of March. As of that day, the isolation measures taken in Lombardy were extended to the entire country. Here, assuming that effectively there was one case “zero” that introduced the virus to the region, we provide estimates for: (a) the day-zero of the outbreak in Lombardy, Italy; (b) the actual number of asymptomatic infected cases in the total population until March 8; (c) the basic (R0)and the effective reproduction number (Re) based on the estimation of the actual number of infected cases. To demonstrate the efficiency of the model and approach, we also provide a tentative forecast two months ahead of time, i.e. until May 4, the date on which relaxation of the measures commenced, on the basis of the COVID-19 Community Mobility Reports released by Google on March 29. Methods To deal with the uncertainty in the number of the actual asymptomatic infected cases in the total population Volpert et al. (2020), we address a modified compartmental Susceptible/ Exposed/ Infectious Asymptomatic/ Infected Symptomatic/ Recovered/ Dead (SEIIRD) model with two compartments of infectious persons: one modelling the cases in the population that are asymptomatic or experience very mild symptoms and another modelling the infected cases with mild to severe symptoms. The parameters of the model corresponding to the recovery period, the time from the onset of symptoms to death and the time from exposure to the time that an individual starts to be infectious, have been set as reported from clinical studies on COVID-19. For the estimation of the day-zero of the outbreak in Lombardy, as well as of the “effective” per-day transmission rate for which no clinical data are available, we have used the proposed SEIIRD simulator to fit the numbers of new daily cases from February 21 to the 8th of March. This was accomplished by solving a mixed-integer optimization problem. Based on the computed parameters, we also provide an estimation of the basic reproduction number R0 and the evolution of the effective reproduction number Re. To examine the efficiency of the model and approach, we ran the simulator to “forecast” the epidemic two months ahead of time, i.e. from March 8 to May 4. For this purpose, we considered the reduction in mobility in Lombardy as released on March 29 by Google COVID-19 Community Mobility Reports, and the effects of social distancing and of the very strict measures taken by the government on March 20 and March 21, 2020. Results Based on the proposed methodological procedure, we estimated that the expected day-zero was January 14 (min-max rage: January 5 to January 23, interquartile range: January 11 to January 18). The actual cumulative number of asymptomatic infected cases in the total population in Lombardy on March 8 was of the order of 15 times the confirmed cumulative number of infected cases, while the expected value of the basic reproduction number R0 was found to be 4.53 (min-max range: 4.40- 4.65). On May 4, the date on which relaxation of the measures commenced the effective reproduction number was found to be 0.987 (interquartiles: 0.857, 1.133). The model approximated adequately two months ahead of time the evolution of reported cases of infected until May 4, the day on which the phase I of the relaxation of measures was implemented over all of Italy. Furthermore the model predicted that until May 4, around 20% of the population in Lombardy has recovered (interquartile range: *10% to *30%)

Assessment of the genetic risks of a metallic alloy used in medical implants

The use of artificial implants provides a palliative or permanent solution for individuals who have lost some bodily function through disease, an accident or natural wear. This functional loss can be compensated for by the use of medical devices produced from special biomaterials. Titanium alloy (Ti-6Al-4V) is a well-established primary metallic biomaterial for orthopedic implants, but the toxicity of the chemical components of this alloy has become an issue of concern. In this work, we used the MTT assay and micronucleus assay to examine the cytotoxicity and genotoxicity, respectively, of an extract obtained from this alloy. The MTT assay indicated that the mitochondrial activity and cell viability of CHO-K1 cells were unaffected by exposure to the extract. However, the micronucleus assay revealed DNA damage and an increase in micronucleus frequency at all of the concentrations tested. These results show that ions released from Ti-6Al-4V alloy can cause DNA and nuclear damage and reinforce the importance of assessing the safety of metallic medical devices constructed from biomaterials

Resistance to the CCR5 Inhibitor 5P12-RANTES Requires a Difficult Evolution from CCR5 to CXCR4 Coreceptor Use

Viral resistance to small molecule allosteric inhibitors of CCR5 is well documented, and involves either selection of preexisting CXCR4-using HIV-1 variants or envelope sequence evolution to use inhibitor-bound CCR5 for entry. Resistance to macromolecular CCR5 inhibitors has been more difficult to demonstrate, although selection of CXCR4-using variants might be expected. We have compared the in vitro selection of HIV-1 CC1/85 variants resistant to either the small molecule inhibitor maraviroc (MVC) or the macromolecular inhibitor 5P12-RANTES. High level resistance to MVC was conferred by the same envelope mutations as previously reported after 16–18 weeks of selection by increasing levels of MVC. The MVC-resistant mutants were fully sensitive to inhibition by 5P12-RANTES. By contrast, only transient and low level resistance to 5P12-RANTES was achieved in three sequential selection experiments, and each resulted in a subsequent collapse of virus replication. A fourth round of selection by 5P12-RANTES led, after 36 weeks, to a “resistant” variant that had switched from CCR5 to CXCR4 as a coreceptor. Envelope sequences diverged by 3.8% during selection of the 5P12-RANTES resistant, CXCR4-using variants, with unique and critical substitutions in the V3 region. A subset of viruses recovered from control cultures after 44 weeks of passage in the absence of inhibitors also evolved to use CXCR4, although with fewer and different envelope mutations. Control cultures contained both viruses that evolved to use CXCR4 by deleting four amino acids in V3, and others that maintained entry via CCR5. These results suggest that coreceptor switching may be the only route to resistance for compounds like 5P12-RANTES. This pathway requires more mutations and encounters more fitness obstacles than development of resistance to MVC, confirming the clinical observations that resistance to small molecule CCR5 inhibitors very rarely involves coreceptor switching

Copper binding to the Alzheimer’s disease amyloid precursor protein

Alzheimer’s disease is the fourth biggest killer in developed countries. Amyloid precursor protein (APP) plays a central role in the development of the disease, through the generation of a peptide called Aβ by proteolysis of the precursor protein. APP can function as a metalloprotein and modulate copper transport via its extracellular copper binding domain (CuBD). Copper binding to this domain has been shown to reduce Aβ levels and hence a molecular understanding of the interaction between metal and protein could lead to the development of novel therapeutics to treat the disease. We have recently determined the three-dimensional structures of apo and copper bound forms of CuBD. The structures provide a mechanism by which CuBD could readily transfer copper ions to other proteins. Importantly, the lack of significant conformational changes to CuBD on copper binding suggests a model in which copper binding affects the dimerisation state of APP leading to reduction in Aβ production. We thus predict that disruption of APP dimers may be a novel therapeutic approach to treat Alzheimer’s disease

Quantitative Deep Sequencing Reveals Dynamic HIV-1 Escape and Large Population Shifts during CCR5 Antagonist Therapy In Vivo

High-throughput sequencing platforms provide an approach for detecting rare HIV-1 variants and documenting more fully quasispecies diversity. We applied this technology to the V3 loop-coding region of env in samples collected from 4 chronically HIV-infected subjects in whom CCR5 antagonist (vicriviroc [VVC]) therapy failed. Between 25,000–140,000 amplified sequences were obtained per sample. Profound baseline V3 loop sequence heterogeneity existed; predicted CXCR4-using populations were identified in a largely CCR5-using population. The V3 loop forms associated with subsequent virologic failure, either through CXCR4 use or the emergence of high-level VVC resistance, were present as minor variants at 0.8–2.8% of baseline samples. Extreme, rapid shifts in population frequencies toward these forms occurred, and deep sequencing provided a detailed view of the rapid evolutionary impact of VVC selection. Greater V3 diversity was observed post-selection. This previously unreported degree of V3 loop sequence diversity has implications for viral pathogenesis, vaccine design, and the optimal use of HIV-1 CCR5 antagonists

Comparative determination of HIV-1 co-receptor tropism by Enhanced Sensitivity Trofile, gp120 V3-loop RNA and DNA genotyping

BACKGROUND: Trofile is the prospectively validated HIV-1 tropism assay. Its use is limited by high costs, long turn-around time, and inability to test patients with very low or undetectable viremia. We aimed at assessing the efficiency of population genotypic assays based on gp120 V3-loop sequencing for the determination of tropism in plasma viral RNA and in whole-blood viral DNA. Contemporary and follow-up plasma and whole-blood samples from patients undergoing tropism testing via the enhanced sensitivity Trofile (ESTA) were collected. Clinical and clonal geno2pheno[coreceptor] (G2P) models at 10% and at optimised 5.7% false positive rate cutoff were evaluated using viral DNA and RNA samples, compared against each other and ESTA, using Cohen's kappa, phylogenetic analysis, and area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC). RESULTS: Both clinical and clonal G2P (with different false positive rates) showed good performances in predicting the ESTA outcome (for V3 RNA-based clinical G2P at 10% false positive rate AUROC = 0.83, sensitivity = 90%, specificity = 75%). The rate of agreement between DNA- and RNA-based clinical G2P was fair (kappa = 0.74, p < 0.0001), and DNA-based clinical G2P accurately predicted the plasma ESTA (AUROC = 0.86). Significant differences in the viral populations were detected when comparing inter/intra patient diversity of viral DNA with RNA sequences. CONCLUSIONS: Plasma HIV RNA or whole-blood HIV DNA V3-loop sequencing interpreted with clinical G2P is cheap and can be a good surrogate for ESTA. Although there may be differences among viral RNA and DNA populations in the same host, DNA-based G2P may be used as an indication of viral tropism in patients with undetectable plasma viremia

Susceptibility of HIV-1 Subtypes B′, CRF07_BC and CRF01_AE that Are Predominantly Circulating in China to HIV-1 Entry Inhibitors

The B', CRF07_BC and CRF01_AE are the predominant HIV-1 subtypes in China. It is essential to determine their baseline susceptibility to HIV entry inhibitors before these drugs are used in China.The baseline susceptibility of 14 representative HIV-1 isolates (5 CRF07_BC, 4 CRF01_AE, and 5 B'), most of which were R5 viruses, obtained from drug-naïve patients to HIV entry inhibitors, including two fusion inhibitors (enfuvirtide and C34), two CCR5 antagonists (maraviroc and TAK779) and one CXCR4 antagonist (AMD3100), were determined by virus inhibition assay. The sequences of their env genes were amplified and analyzed. These isolates possessed similar susceptibility to C34, but they exhibited different sensitivity to enfuvirtide, maraviroc or TAK779. CRF07_BC isolates, which carried polymorphisms of A578T and V583I in the N-terminal heptad repeat and E630Q, E662A, K665S, A667K and S668N in the C-terminal heptad repeat of gp41, were about 5-fold less sensitive than B' and CRF01_AE isolates to enfuvirtide. Subtype B' isolates with a unique polymorphism site of F317W in V3 loop, were about 4- to 5-fold more sensitive than CRF07_BC and CRF01_AE isolates to maraviroc and TAK779. AMD3100 at the concentration as high as 5 µM exhibited no significant inhibitory activity against any of the isolates tested.Our results suggest that there are significant differences in baseline susceptibility to HIV entry inhibitors among the predominant HIV-1 subtypes in China and the differences may partly result from the naturally occurring polymorphisms in these subtypes. This study provides useful information for rational design of optimal therapeutic regimens for HIV-1-infected patients in China

Socio-demographic determinants of coinfections by HIV, hepatitis B and hepatitis C viruses in central Italian prisoners

BACKGROUND: The coinfections HIV/HCV/HBV are an important health issue in penitentiary communities. The aim of the study was to examine HIV, HBV and HCV coinfections determinants amongst prisoners in the jails of Southern Lazio (Central Italy), in the period 1995-2000. METHODS: Diagnosis of seropositivities for HIV, HBV and HCV was made using ELISA method. A multiple logistic regression analysis was conducted to verify the influence of socio-demographic factors on the HIV/HBV/HCV coinfections. RESULTS: HIV/HCV, HBV/HCV and HIV/HBV coinfections were detected in 42 (4%), 203 (17.9%) and 31 (2.9%) inmates, respectively. These coinfections are significantly associated with the status of drug addiction (OR = 16.02; p = 0.012; OR = 4.15; p &lt; 0.001; OR = 23.57; p = 0.002), smoking habits (OR = 3.73; p = 0.033; OR = 1.42; p = 0.088; OR = 4.25; p = 0.053) and Italian nationality (OR = 7.05; p = 0.009; OR = 2.31; p &lt; 0.001; OR = 4.61; p = 0.04). CONCLUSION: The prevalence of HIV, HBV and HCV seropositivity in jails suggests that information and education programs for inmates could be useful to reduce the spread of such infections

Two HIV-1 Variants Resistant to Small Molecule CCR5 Inhibitors Differ in How They Use CCR5 for Entry

HIV-1 variants resistant to small molecule CCR5 inhibitors recognize the inhibitor-CCR5 complex, while also interacting with free CCR5. The most common genetic route to resistance involves sequence changes in the gp120 V3 region, a pathway followed when the primary isolate CC1/85 was cultured with the AD101 inhibitor in vitro, creating the CC101.19 resistant variant. However, the D1/86.16 escape mutant contains no V3 changes but has three substitutions in the gp41 fusion peptide. By using CCR5 point-mutants and gp120-targeting agents, we have investigated how infectious clonal viruses derived from the parental and both resistant isolates interact with CCR5. We conclude that the V3 sequence changes in CC101.19 cl.7 create a virus with an increased dependency on interactions with the CCR5 N-terminus. Elements of the CCR5 binding site associated with the V3 region and the CD4-induced (CD4i) epitope cluster in the gp120 bridging sheet are more exposed on the native Env complex of CC101.19 cl.7, which is sensitive to neutralization via these epitopes. However, D1/86.16 cl.23 does not have an increased dependency on the CCR5 N-terminus, and its CCR5 binding site has not become more exposed. How this virus interacts with the inhibitor-CCR5 complex remains to be understood