Does the revised cardiac risk index predict cardiac complications following elective lung resection?

Background: Revised Cardiac Risk Index (RCRI) score and Thoracic Revised Cardiac Risk Index (ThRCRI) score were developed to predict the risks of postoperative major cardiac complications in generic surgical population and thoracic surgery respectively. This study aims to determine the accuracy of these scores in predicting the risk of developing cardiac complications including atrial arrhythmias after lung resection surgery in adults. Methods: We studied 703 patients undergoing lung resection surgery in a tertiary thoracic surgery centre. Observed outcome measures of postoperative cardiac morbidity and mortality were compared against those predicted by risk. Results: Postoperative major cardiac complications and supraventricular arrhythmias occurred in 4.8% of patients. Both index scores had poor discriminative ability for predicting postoperative cardiac complications with an area under receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve of 0.59 (95% CI 0.51-0.67) for the RCRI score and 0.57 (95% CI 0.49-0.66) for the ThRCRI score. Conclusions: In our cohort, RCRI and ThRCRI scores failed to accurately predict the risk of cardiac complications in patients undergoing elective resection of lung cancer. The British Thoracic Society (BTS) recommendation to seek a cardiology referral for all asymptomatic pre-operative lung resection patients with > 3 RCRI risk factors is thus unlikely to be of clinical benefit

Predictors of chronic breathlessness: a large population study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Breathlessness causes significant burden in our community but the underlying socio-demographic and lifestyle factors that may influence it are not well quantified. This study aims to define these predictors of chronic breathlessness at a population level.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Data were collected from adult South Australians in 2007 and 2008 (n = 5331) as part of a face-to-face, cross-sectional, whole-of-population, multi-stage, systematic area sampling population health survey. The main outcome variable was breathlessness in logistic regression models. Lifestyle factors examined included smoking history, smoke-free housing, level of physical activity and body mass index (obesity).</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The participation rate was 64.1%, and 11.1% of individuals (15.0% if aged ≥50 years) chronically had breathlessness that limited exertion. Significant bivariate associations with chronic breathlessness for the whole population and only those ≥50 included: increasing age; female gender; being separated/divorced/widowed; social disadvantage; smoking status; those without a smoke-free home; low levels of physical activity; and obesity. In multi-variate analyses adjusted for age, marital status (p < 0.001), physical activity (p < 0.001), obesity (p < 0.001), gender (p < 0.05) and social disadvantage (p < 0.05) remained significant factors. Smoking history was <it>not </it>a significant contributor to the model.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>There is potential benefit in addressing reversible lifestyle causes of breathlessness including high body mass index (obesity) and low levels of physical activity in order to decrease the prevalence of chronic breathlessness. Clinical intervention studies for chronic breathlessness should consider stratification by body mass index.</p

Predicting the likelihood of a persistent bile duct stone in patients with suspected choledocholithiasis: accuracy of existing guidelines and the impact of laboratory trends

BACKGROUND: Existing guidelines aim to stratify the likelihood of choledocholithiasis to guide the use of ERCP versus a lower-risk diagnostic study such as EUS, MRCP, or intraoperative cholangiography. OBJECTIVE: To assess the performance of existing guidelines in predicting choledocholithiasis and to determine whether trends in laboratory parameters improve diagnostic accuracy. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study. SETTING: Tertiary-care hospital. PATIENTS: Hospitalized patients presenting with suspected choledocholithiasis over a 6-year period. INTERVENTIONS: Assessment of the American Society for Gastrointestinal Endoscopy (ASGE) guidelines, its component variables, and laboratory trends in predicting choledocholithiasis. MAIN OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS: The presence of choledocholithiasis confirmed by EUS, MRCP, or ERCP. RESULTS: A total of 179 (35.9%) of the 498 eligible patients met ASGE high-probability criteria for choledocholithiasis on initial presentation. Of those, 99 patients (56.3%) had a stone/sludge on subsequent confirmatory test. Of patients not meeting high-probability criteria on presentation, 111 (34.8%) had a stone/sludge. The overall accuracy of the guidelines in detecting choledocholithiasis was 62.1% (47.4% sensitivity, 73% specificity) based on data available at presentation. The accuracy was unchanged when incorporating the second set of liver chemistries obtained after admission (63.2%), suggesting that laboratory trends do not improve performance. LIMITATIONS: Retrospective study, inconsistent timing of the second set of biochemical markers. CONCLUSION: In our cohort of patients, existing choledocholithiasis guidelines lacked diagnostic accuracy, likely resulting in overuse of ERCP. Incorporation of laboratory trends did not improve performance. Additional research focused on risk stratification is necessary to meet the goal of eliminating unnecessary diagnostic ERCP