Land change detection and effective factors on forest land use changes: application of land change modeler and multiple linear regression

Reducing forest covered areas and changing it to pasture, agricultural, urban and rural areas is performed every year and this causes great damages in natural resources in a wide range. In order to identify the effective factors on reducing the forest cover area, multiple regression was used from 1995 to 2015 in Mazandaran forests. A Multiple regressions can link the decline in forest cover (dependent variable) and its effective factors (independent variable) are well explained. In this study, Landsat TM data of 1995 and Landsat ETM+ data of 2015 were analyzed and classified in order to investigate the changes in the forest area. The images were classified in two classes of forest and non-forest areas and also forest map with spatial variables of physiography and human were analyzed by regression equation. Detection satellite images showed that during the studied period there was found a reduction of forest areas up to approximately 257331 ha. The results of regression analysis indicated that the linear combination of income per capita, rain and temperature with determined coefficient 0.4 as independent variables were capable of estimating the reduction of forest area. The results of this study can be used as an efficient tool to manage and improve forests regarding physiographical and human characteristics.Keywords: Land change Modeler, Multiple linear regression, remote sensing, Mazandaran forest

Establishment of a New Urban Solid Waste Management Programs in Mazandaran Province, North of Iran

This study reports residents’ preferences to establish a new urban solid waste management programs results from a double-bounded dichotomous choice contingent valuation method and choice experiment in Mazandaran province, north of Iran. In order to analysis the residents’ preferences, a dichotomous hypothetical market and a choice sets with different attributes and options were used For estimation of two mentioned methods, the normal logit and conditional logit were applied. In addition, an empirical comparison of the welfare measures derived from the doublebounded DC-CVM and CE is conducted. The main results show that there is no significant difference between the values derived from the two methods. The mean of WTP to establish a new solid waste management programs in CV and CE were estimated 2.45 and 2.61 US$, respectively, per a person per a month. Also the estimated marginal WTP for all attributes in CE was 8.1 US$ per a month. The results suggest that both double-bounded DC-CVM and CE can be successfully stablished for improvement environmental level quality in Mazandaran province. This paper could provide the basis for further development of other new programs on sustainable urban management of solid waste in Mazandaran province.Keywords: Dichotomous choice, Willingness to pay, Solid waste management, Mazandaran province, Ira

How much is the use values of forest ecosystem services? Case study: north forests of Iran

Forests play a significant role for human’s well-being. Economists’ attention is mostly drawn on the market value of forest products. The trend, however, is changing as non-market values of forests are increasingly appreciated and measured. Recently, the ecosystem value of forest has been studied by natural resource economists and its role on human welfare is ensured. This paper indicates that the annual use value of the ecosystem services such as water conservation, soil protection, carbon fixation, nutrient cycling, water purification, air pollution absorption and recreation provided by forests is not only worth millions of dollars, but also in per hectare terms much more than hitherto known. This value for the Mazandaran forest reserve (MFR) ranged US$14.2–14.8 million or about US$ 6676.9–6785.6 per ha. If these are accounted for, then governments and societies faced with the development versus conservation dilemma can create more understanding decisions and policies that will assist conserve forests and the ecosystem services they provide, and thereby promulgate human well-being and sustainable development. Realization about these significant intangible benefits will assist in more informed decisions and policies that will help conserve forest ecosystems and the services they provide as well as promote human well-being and sustainable development

Meta-analysis of nature conservation values in Asia & Oceania: Data heterogeneity and benefit transfer issues

We conduct a meta-analysis (MA) of around 100 studies valuing nature conservation in Asia and Oceania. Dividing our dataset into two levels of heterogeneity in terms of good characteristics (endangered species vs. nature conservation more generally) and valuation methods, we show that the degree of regularity and conformity with theory and empirical expectations is higher for the more homogenous dataset of contingent valuation of endangered species. For example, we find that willingness to pay (WTP) for preservation of mammals tends to be higher than other species and that WTP for species preservation increases with income. Increasing the degree of heterogeneity in the valuation data, however, preserves much of the regularity, and the explanatory power of some of our models is in the range of other MA studies of goods typically assumed to be more homogenous (such as water quality). Subjecting our best MA models to a simple test forecasting values for out-of-sample observations, shows median (mean) forecasting errors of 24 (46) percent for endangered species and 46 (89) percent for nature conservation more generally, approaching levels that may be acceptable in benefit transfer for policy use. We recommend that the most prudent MA practice is to control for heterogeneity in regressions and sensitivity analysis, rather than to limit datasets by non-transparent criteria to a level of heterogeneity deemed acceptable to the individual analyst. However, the trade-off will always be present and the issue of acceptable level of heterogeneity in MA is far from settle

Estimating the Economic Value of Environmental Amenities of Isfahan Sofeh Highland Park (The Individual Revealed and Expressed Travel Cost Method)

Introduction: Natural resources and the environment, such as mountains are considered public goods. The main features of these public goods are lack of market and price for exchange. This issue leads to a worthless impression about these goods, lack of effort for their conservation and preventing resource degradation. One of the major benefits of environmental resources, such as mountains, is their function as environmental amenities (for leisure and recreation). The estimation of their recreational worth is important as a part of the total value of such resources. In this context, the aim of this study is to estimate the economic value of environmental amenities of Sofeh Highland Park in Isfahan by individual travel cost method. Materials and Methods: Travel cost method is used for the evaluation of public goods or environmental non-market commodities. It is applied to a wide range of areas, including tourism values of lakes and wetlands, coral reefs, biodiversity and national parks, recreational fishing and mountaineering. The travel cost approach does not ask willingness to pay directly, but imputes it from the observed behavior of other visitors through an estimated demand function, which relates the number of observed trips to the incurred travel cost. Underpinning the travel cost method is for the estimation of the recreational demand function, from which consumer surplus estimates can be derived. Consumer surplus -the measure of non-market benefits to the visitors- is the difference between what the visitor would be (theoretically) willing to pay to go the intended recreational location, and what they are actually required to pay. In this research, the individual travel cost method was used. For this purpose, a 290 item questionnaire with simple random sampling was filled by travelers in the area in 2013. Then the demand function of environmental amenities (tourism demand) was estimated in two scenarios by using negative binomial regression for the revealed and the expressed travel costs and total travel costs. Results Discussion: Collected data shows that the average age of visitors is 31 years. Most of them are young, 66% of visitors are male and the rest are female. Most of the respondents chose the spring season for visiting Sofeh Park. Results of negative binomial regression estimation showed that age, income, distance and the revealed and total travel cost have a significant effect on the total number of visits in both scenarios. Age and income coefficients are positive. Thus, these variables have a direct effect on the number of visit in both scenarios. But distance and travel cost coefficients are negative. Therefore, these variables have a reverse effect on the total number of visits in both scenarios. These results confirm the demand law. The law of demand states that the quantity demanded and the price of a commodity are inversely related. Travel cost as commodity price for tourism demand function in the first scenario is only revealed -travel- cost of trip to location and in the second scenario is the revealed cost in addition to the opportunity cost of trip to the recreational location. Consumer surplus as the average value of environmental amenities is calculated by1/ , where is the coefficient related to travel cost variable in the tourism demand functions. Also, the average value of environmental amenities for anyone visit in the first and the second scenarios are 797 and 1145 thousand Rials, respectively. The obvious difference between recreational values in the two scenarios is due to opportunity cost. The total recreational value of the Sofeh Highland Park equals to the product of number of annual visits and average recreational value. Finally the total value of annual visits to the park, in the above scenarios is more than 11952 and 17174 billion Rials, respectively. Conclusion: In this study, the value of environmental amenities of the Sofeh Highland Park were estimated. Notice that the above values are not the price of Sofeh Park that is a natural environment in the current study. In fact, these values are "minimum of recreational values" of any given environment. It is essential for the visitors to have knowledge of this value in order to conserve the environment and the regional facilities. Furthermore, it is essential for the authorities to have knowledge of this value, with the aim of making more efforts and overseeing improvements and conservation of this environment. Also, alongside the protection plans for Sofeh Highland Park, authorities can bring about an increase in the number of annual visits to this Park by reducing travel and opportunity costs through facilitating the conditions to access, such as improving public transportation to this park. Keywords: Individual Travel Costs, Isfahan Sofeh Highland Park, Negative Binomial Regression, Value of Environmental Amenities, Tourism Demand Functio

Economic analysis of land use changes in forests and rangelands: Developing conservation strategies

Forests and rangelands are economically and environmentally important due to the production of goods and ecosystem services, and any changes in their nature requires a comprehensive evaluation and analysis. The objectives of this study include: a) conducting a cost-benefit analysis of land use change in the forests and rangelands of the Caspian vegetative area with regard to the environmental costs along with other costs and benefits, b) estimating the environmental damage of land use change, and c) developing appropriate strategies for the conservation of the forests and rangelands. The value of costs and benefits of the change was calculated from 2005 to 2016 using the average annual inflation rate up to 2035. The results of the evaluation model show that among the 6 scenarios of land use change, 4 scenarios are completely economically non-viable and two scenarios (forest and rangeland change to residential) are viable with regard to environmental considerations. Moreover, during this period, the change of forest and rangeland for other uses were respectively 43,732 and 33,466 ha. Accordingly, considering the average annual value of hectares of forest and rangeland in terms of producing goods and ecological services, the loss incurred was about 334 and 160 million USD. © 2019 Elsevier Lt

Residents\' Willingness-to-Pay (WTP) for Preservation of Valasht Lake of Chalous City by Using One-and-One-Half-Bound Dichotomous Choice Contingent Valuation Method

In this study, residents' willingness-to-pay (WTP) for preservation of Valasht lake of Chalous city is estimated by using one-and-one-half-bound dichotomous choice contingent valuation method. WTP was measured by using logit model and Maximum Likelihood (ML) parameters estimation method. The results show that 67 percent of the housholds willingness to pay for preservation of Valasht lake. The average monthly WTP of each household is 26175 Rials. Total annual preservation value of this lake is estimated close to 6994 million Rials. According to the result of regression model, the offer amounts, households' income, satisfaction of water quality and education level of household head are the most important factors affecting households' WTP

Factors Affecting Consumers' Dairy Products Preferences

Choice models represent a valid approach for the analysis of consumers’ preferences as these models offer an opportunity to investigate many aspects that influence consumer behaviour. This study with the purpose of investigating consumers’ preferences and their affecting factors were conducted by using the nested logit model in Sari, Iran in 2018. The results revealed that yoghurt, milk and cheese had the most preferences among the dairy products and consumers had more tendencies towards using low fat than full-fat dairy products. The results of factors affecting dairy products choice indicated that price and family cost decreased the probability of products being chosen, and age, education and attention to exercise variables increased this probability. Marketing mixed variables (4p) also had a significant effect on the choice of dairy products