Prioritizing livestock grazing right buyouts to safeguard Asiatic cheetahs from extinction

The article processing charge was funded by the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG, German Research Foundation) – 491192747 and the Open Access Publication Fund of Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin.Livestock husbandry exerts major pressures on wildlife across the world. Large carnivores are particularly at risk because they are often killed by pastoralists as a preventive or precautionary response to livestock depredation. Minimizing the overlap between pastures and carnivore habitat can thus be a conservation strategy, but it remains often unclear which pastures should be targeted to maximize conservation benefits given a limited budget. We addressed this question for the last viable population of the Asiatic cheetah (Acinonyx jubatus venaticus) in northeastern Iran. By combining species distribution modeling with a spatial prioritization framework, we aimed to identify where grazing right buyouts should take place to reduce cheetah killing by herders and their dogs. We assessed the Asiatic cheetah habitat using species distribution models, highlighting large, contiguous areas that overlap with livestock pastures (5792 km2, equaling 72% of the total predicted suitable habitat). Subsequently, we used data on the number and distribution of livestock (~47,000 animals in 80 pastures) and applied a spatial prioritization method to identify pastures for grazing right buyouts for a range of budget scenarios (US$100,000–600,000). Pastures selected had a high level of irreplaceability and were generally stable across budget scenarios. Our results provide a novel approach to minimize encounter rates between cheetah and livestock, and thus the mortality risk, for one of the world's most endangered felids and highlight the potential of spatial prioritization as a tool to devise urgent conservation actions.Peer Reviewe

Effects of shepherds and dogs on livestock depredation by leopards (Panthera pardus) in north-eastern Iran

Human-carnivore conflicts over livestock depredation are increasingly common, yet little is understood about the role of husbandry in conflict mitigation. As shepherds and guarding dogs are most commonly used to curb carnivore attacks on grazing livestock, evaluation and improvement of these practices becomes an important task. We addressed this issue by studying individual leopard (Panthera pardus) attacks on sheep and goats in 34 villages near Golestan National Park, Iran. We obtained and analyzed data on 39 attacks, which included a total loss of 31 sheep and 36 goats in 17 villages. We applied non-parametric testing, Poisson Generalized Linear Modelling (GLM) and model selection to assess how numbers of sheep and goats killed per attack are associated with the presence and absence of shepherds and dogs during attacks, depredation in previous years, villages, seasons, ethnic groups, numbers of sheep and goats kept in villages, and distances from villages to the nearest protected areas. We found that 95.5% of losses were inflicted in forests when sheep and goats were accompanied by shepherds (92.5% of losses) and dogs (77.6%). Leopards tended to kill more sheep and goats per attack (surplus killing) when dogs were absent in villages distant from protected areas, but still inflicted most losses when dogs were present, mainly in villages near protected areas. No other variables affected numbers of sheep and goats killed per attack. These results indicate that local husbandry practices are ineffectual and the mere presence of shepherds and guarding dogs is not enough to secure protection. Shepherds witnessed leopard attacks, but could not deter them while dogs did not exhibit guarding behavior and were sometimes killed by leopards. In an attempt to make practical, low-cost and socially acceptable improvements in local husbandry, we suggest that dogs are raised to create a strong social bond with livestock, shepherds use only best available dogs, small flocks are aggregated into larger ones and available shepherds herd these larger flocks together. Use of deterrents and avoidance of areas close to Golestan and in central, core areas of neighboring protected areas is also essential to keep losses down

Dissatisfaction with Veterinary Services Is Associated with Leopard (<i>Panthera pardus</i>) Predation on Domestic Animals

<div><p>Human-carnivore conflicts challenge biodiversity conservation and local livelihoods, but the role of diseases of domestic animals in their predation by carnivores is poorly understood. We conducted a human-leopard (<i>Panthera pardus</i>) conflict study throughout all 34 villages around Golestan National Park, Iran in order to find the most important conflict determinants and to use them in predicting the probabilities of conflict and killing of cattle, sheep and goats, and dogs. We found that the more villagers were dissatisfied with veterinary services, the more likely they were to lose livestock and dogs to leopard predation. Dissatisfaction occurred when vaccination crews failed to visit villages at all or, in most cases, arrived too late to prevent diseases from spreading. We suggest that increased morbidity of livestock makes them particularly vulnerable to leopard attacks. Moreover, conflicts and dog killing were higher in villages located closer to the boundaries of the protected area than in distant villages. Therefore, we appeal for improved enforcement and coordination of veterinary services in our study area, and propose several priority research topics such as veterinarian studies, role of wild prey in diseases of domestic animals, and further analysis of potential conflict predictors.</p></div

The significant effects of satisfaction with veterinary services on human-leopard (<i>Panthera pardus</i>) conflict, cattle killing, sheep and goat killing, and dog killing by leopards in villages around Golestan National Park, Iran.

<p>The significant effects of satisfaction with veterinary services on human-leopard (<i>Panthera pardus</i>) conflict, cattle killing, sheep and goat killing, and dog killing by leopards in villages around Golestan National Park, Iran.</p

Location of Golestan National Park (GNP), Ghorkhod Protected Area (GPA), Zav 1 Protected Area (ZAV1), Zav 2 Protected Area (ZAV2), Loveh Protected Area (LPA) and villages with or without human-leopard (<i>Panthera pardus</i>) conflict.

<p>Location of Golestan National Park (GNP), Ghorkhod Protected Area (GPA), Zav 1 Protected Area (ZAV1), Zav 2 Protected Area (ZAV2), Loveh Protected Area (LPA) and villages with or without human-leopard (<i>Panthera pardus</i>) conflict.</p

The effect of satisfaction and dissatisfaction with veterinary services on the probabilities of conflict, cattle killing, sheep and goat (shoat) killing and dog killing modeled by logistic regression.

<p>The error bars indicate standard error.</p

The models predicting the probabilities of human-leopard conflict and killing of cattle, sheep and goats, and dogs by leopards from the villagers’ satisfaction with veterinary services.

<p>Abbreviations: AUC–area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC), p–probability of response variable, <i>P</i>–significance level, VS–satisfaction with veterinary services (1 if satisfied, 0 if not), %–percentage of correct classification.</p><p>The models predicting the probabilities of human-leopard conflict and killing of cattle, sheep and goats, and dogs by leopards from the villagers’ satisfaction with veterinary services.</p