The Interacting Branching Process as a Simple Model of Innovation

We describe innovation in terms of a generalized branching process. Each new invention pairs with any existing one to produce a number of offspring, which is Poisson distributed with mean p. Existing inventions die with probability p/\tau at each generation. In contrast to mean field results, no phase transition occurs; the chance for survival is finite for all p > 0. For \tau = \infty, surviving processes exhibit a bottleneck before exploding super-exponentially - a growth consistent with a law of accelerating returns. This behavior persists for finite \tau. We analyze, in detail, the asymptotic behavior as p \to 0.Comment: 4 pages, 4 figure

Genetic and economic benefits of foreign sire contributions to a domestic sheep industry; including an Ireland-New Zealand case study

peer-reviewedBackground Importation of foreign genetics is a widely used genetic improvement strategy. However, even if the foreign genetic merit is currently greater than the domestic genetic merit, differences in foreign and domestic trends mean that the long-term competitiveness of an importation strategy cannot be guaranteed. Gene flow models are used to quantify the impact that a specific subpopulation, such as foreign genetics, can have over time on the genetic or economic benefit of a domestic industry. Methods We used a deterministic recursive gene flow model to predict the commercial performance of lambs born across various subpopulations. Numerous breeding strategies were evaluated by varying market share, proportions of rams selected for mating, genetic trend, superiority of foreign genetics over domestic genetics and frequency of importation. Specifically, an Ireland-New Zealand case study was simulated to quantify the potential gain that could be made by using foreign sire contributions (New Zealand) in a domestic sheep industry (Ireland). Results Genetic and economic gains were generated from alternative breeding strategies. The ‘base scenario’ (i.e. representing the current industry) predicted an average genetic merit value of €2.51 for lambs born and an annualised cumulative benefit of €45 million (m) after 20 years. Maximum genetic (€9.45 for lambs born) and economic (annualised cumulative benefit of €180 m after 20 years) benefits were achieved by implementing the ‘PRO-intense-market scenario’ which involved shifting market share away from conservative domestic breeders and reducing the proportion of rams that were selected for mating by progressive domestic breeders from the top 40% to the top 20%, without the use of any foreign genetics. The ‘PROFOR scenario’, which considered the use of foreign and progressive domestic genetics, predicted an average genetic merit value of €7.37 for lambs born and an annualised cumulative benefit of €144 m, after 20 years. Conclusions Our results demonstrate that there is opportunity for a domestic industry to increase industry benefits without the use of foreign genetics but through an attempt to shift the market share away from conservative domestic breeders towards progressive domestic breeders. However, the importation and use of progressive foreign genetics may be an effective method to trigger a change in behaviour of conservative domestic breeders towards the use of progressive genetics

Conversion of Uric Acid into Ammonium in Oil-Degrading Marine Microbial Communities: a Possible Role of Halomonads

Uric acid is a promising hydrophobic nitrogen source for biostimulation of microbial activities in oil-impacted marine environments. This study investigated metabolic processes and microbial community changes in a series of microcosms using sediment from the Mediterranean and the Red Sea amended with ammonium and uric acid. Respiration, emulsification, ammonium and protein concentration measurements suggested a rapid production of ammonium from uric acid accompanied by the development of microbial communities containing hydrocarbonoclastic bacteria after 3 weeks of incubation. About 80 % of uric acid was converted to ammonium within the first few days of the experiment. Microbial population dynamics were investigated by Ribosomal Intergenic Spacer Analysis and Illumina sequencing as well as by culture-based techniques. Resulting data indicated that strains related to Halomonas spp. converted uric acid into ammonium, which stimulated growth of microbial consortia dominated by Alcanivorax spp. and Pseudomonas spp. Several strains of Halomonas spp. were isolated on uric acid as the sole carbon source showed location specificity. These results point towards a possible role of halomonads in the conversion of uric acid to ammonium utilized by hydrocarbonoclastic bacteria.With exception of XH and JC, all authors were supported by the FP7 Project ULIXES (FP7-KBBE-2010-266473). This work was further funded by grant BIO2011-25012 from the Spanish Ministry of the Economy and Competitiveness. FM was supported by Università degli Studi di Milano, European Social Fund (FSE) and Regione Lombardia (contract BDote Ricerca^). DD acknowledges support of KAUST, King Abdullah University of Science and Technology. PG acknowledges the support of the European Commission through the project Kill-Spill (FP7, Contract Nr 312139).Peer Reviewe

Bacterial RNA and small antiviral compounds activate caspase-1 through cryopyrin/Nalp3

Missense mutations in the CIAS1 gene cause three autoinflammatory disorders: familial cold autoinflammatory syndrome, Muckle-Wells syndrome and neonatal-onset multiple-system inflammatory disease(1). Cryopyrin (also called Nalp3), the product of CIAS1, is a member of the NOD-LRR protein family that has been linked to the activation of intracellular host defence signalling pathways(2,3). Cryopyrin forms a multi-protein complex termed 'the inflammasome', which contains the apoptosis-associated speck-like protein (ASC) and caspase-1, and promotes caspase-1 activation and processing of pro-interleukin (IL)-1 beta (ref. 4). Here we show the effect of cryopyrin deficiency on inflammasome function and immune responses. Cryopyrin and ASC are essential for caspase-1 activation and IL-1 beta and IL-18 production in response to bacterial RNA and the imidazoquinoline compounds R837 and R848. In contrast, secretion of tumour-necrosis factor-alpha and IL-6, as well as activation of NF-kappa B and mitogen-activated protein kinases (MAPKs) were unaffected by cryopyrin deficiency. Furthermore, we show that Toll-like receptors and cryopyrin control the secretion of IL-1 beta and IL-18 through different intracellular pathways. These results reveal a critical role for cryopyrin in host defence through bacterial RNA-mediated activation of caspase-1, and provide insights regarding the pathogenesis of autoinflammatory syndromes.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/62569/1/nature04517.pd

Association between the choice of the conditioning regimen and outcomes of allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation for myelofibrosis

Allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation (allo-HCT) remains the only curative treatment for myelofibrosis. However, the optimal conditioning regimen either with reduced intensity conditioning (RIC) or myeloablative conditioning (MAC) is not well known. Using the Center for International Blood and Marrow Transplant Research database, we identified adults aged ≥18 years with myelofibrosis undergoing allo-HCT between 2008-2019 and analyzed the outcomes separately in the RIC and MAC cohorts based on the conditioning regimens used. Among 872 eligible patients, 493 underwent allo-HCT using RIC (Fludarabine/busulfan=166, Fludarabine/melphalan=327) and 379 using MAC (Fludarabine/busulfan=247, Busulfan/cyclophosphamide=132). In multivariable analysis with RIC, Fludarabine/melphalan was associated with inferior overall survival (HR 1.80, 95% CI 1.15-2.81, p=0.009), higher early non-relapse mortality (HR 1.81, 95% CI 1.12-2.91, p=0.01) and higher acute graft versus host disease (GVHD) (grade II-IV- HR 1.45, 95% CI 1.03-2.03, p=0.03; grade III-IV HR 2.21, 95%CI 1.28-3.83, p=0.004) compared to Fludarabine/busulfan. In the MAC setting, Busulfan/cyclophosphamide was associated with a higher acute GVHD (grade II-IV HR 2.33, 95% CI 1.67-3.25, p\u3c0.001; grade III-IV HR 2.31, 95% CI 1.52-3.52, p\u3c0.001) and inferior GVHD-free relapse-free survival (GRFS) (HR 1.94, 95% CI 1.49-2.53, p\u3c0.001) as compared to Fludarabine/busulfan. Hence, our study suggests that Fludarabine/busulfan is associated with better outcomes in RIC (better overall survival, lower early non-relapse mortality, lower acute GVHD) and MAC (lower acute GVHD and better GRFS) in myelofibrosis

Suicide among Arab-Americans

BACKGROUND: Arab-American (AA) populations in the US are exposed to discrimination and acculturative stress-two factors that have been associated with higher suicide risk. However, prior work suggests that socially oriented norms and behaviors, which characterize recent immigrant ethnic groups, may be protective against suicide risk. Here we explored suicide rates and their determinants among AAs in Michigan, the state with the largest proportion of AAs in the US. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: ICD-9/10 underlying cause of death codes were used to identify suicide deaths from among all deaths in Michigan between 1990 and 2007. Data from the 2000 U.S. Census were collected for population denominators. Age-adjusted suicide rates among AAs and non-ethnic whites were calculated by gender using the direct method of standardization. We also stratified by residence inside or outside of Wayne County (WC), the county with the largest AA population in the state. Suicide rates were 25.10 per 100,000 per year among men and 6.40 per 100,000 per year among women in Michigan from 1990 to 2007. AA men had a 51% lower suicide rate and AA women had a 33% lower rate than non-ethnic white men and women, respectively. The suicide rate among AA men in WC was 29% lower than in all other counties, while the rate among AA women in WC was 20% lower than in all other counties. Among non-ethnic whites, the suicide rate in WC was higher compared to all other counties among both men (12%) and women (16%). CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Suicide rates were higher among non-ethnic white men and women compared to AA men and women in both contexts. Arab ethnicity may protect against suicide in both sexes, but more so among men. Additionally, ethnic density may protect against suicide among Arab-Americans

Myeloablative vs Reduced-Intensity Conditioning Allogeneic Hematopoietic Cell Transplantation for Chronic Myeloid Leukemia

Allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation (allo-HCT) is a potentially curative treatment of chronic myeloid leukemia (CML). Optimal conditioning intensity for allo-HCT for CML in the era of tyrosine kinase inhibitors (TKIs) is unknown. Using the Center for International Blood and Marrow Transplant Research database, we sought to determine whether reduced-intensity/nonmyeloablative conditioning (RIC) allo-HCT and myeloablative conditioning (MAC) result in similar outcomes in CML patients. We evaluated 1395 CML allo-HCT recipients between the ages of 18 and 60 years. The disease status at transplant was divided into the following categories: chronic phase 1, chronic phase 2 or greater, and accelerated phase. Patients in blast phase at transplant and alternative donor transplants were excluded. The primary outcome was overall survival (OS) after allo-HCT. MAC (n = 1204) and RIC allo-HCT recipients (n = 191) from 2007 to 2014 were included. Patient, disease, and transplantation characteristics were similar, with a few exceptions. Multivariable analysis showed no significant difference in OS between MAC and RIC groups. In addition, leukemia-free survival and nonrelapse mortality did not differ significantly between the 2 groups. Compared with MAC, the RIC group had a higher risk of early relapse after allo-HCT (hazard ratio [HR], 1.85; P = .001). The cumulative incidence of chronic graft-versus-host disease (cGVHD) was lower with RIC than with MAC (HR, 0.77; P = .02). RIC provides similar survival and lower cGVHD compared with MAC and therefore may be a reasonable alternative to MAC for CML patients in the TKI era

Resistance gene expression determines the in vitro chemosensitivity of non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC)

Background NSCLC exhibits considerable heterogeneity in its sensitivity to chemotherapy and similar heterogeneity is noted in vitro in a variety of model systems. This study has tested the hypothesis that the molecular basis of the observed in vitro chemosensitivity of NSCLC lies within the known resistance mechanisms inherent to these patients' tumors. Methods The chemosensitivity of a series of 49 NSCLC tumors was assessed using the ATP-based tumor chemosensitivity assay (ATP-TCA) and compared with quantitative expression of resistance genes measured by RT-PCR in a Taqman Array™ following extraction of RNA from formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded (FFPE) tissue. Results There was considerable heterogeneity between tumors within the ATP-TCA, and while this showed no direct correlation with individual gene expression, there was strong correlation of multi-gene signatures for many of the single agents and combinations tested. For instance, docetaxel activity showed some dependence on the expression of drug pumps, while cisplatin activity showed some dependence on DNA repair enzyme expression. Activity of both drugs was influenced more strongly still by the expression of anti- and pro-apoptotic genes by the tumor for both docetaxel and cisplatin. The doublet combinations of cisplatin with gemcitabine and cisplatin with docetaxel showed gene expression signatures incorporating resistance mechanisms for both agents. Conclusion Genes predicted to be involved in known mechanisms drug sensitivity and resistance correlate well with in vitro chemosensitivity and may allow the definition of predictive signatures to guide individualized chemotherapy in lung cancer

Ethnic Inequalities in Mortality: The Case of Arab-Americans

BACKGROUND: Although nearly 112 million residents of the United States belong to a non-white ethnic group, the literature about differences in health indicators across ethnic groups is limited almost exclusively to Hispanics. Features of the social experience of many ethnic groups including immigration, discrimination, and acculturation may plausibly influence mortality risk. We explored life expectancy and age-adjusted mortality risk of Arab-Americans (AAs), relative to non-Arab and non-Hispanic Whites in Michigan, the state with the largest per capita population of AAs in the US. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Data were collected about all deaths to AAs and non-Arab and non-Hispanic Whites in Michigan between 1990 and 2007, and year 2000 census data were collected for population denominators. We calculated life expectancy, age-adjusted all-cause, cause-specific, and age-specific mortality rates stratified by ethnicity and gender among AAs and non-Arab and non-Hispanic Whites. Among AAs, life expectancies among men and women were 2.0 and 1.4 years lower than among non-Arab and non-Hispanic White men and women, respectively. AA men had higher mortality than non-Arab and non-Hispanic White men due to infectious diseases, chronic diseases, and homicide. AA women had higher mortality than non-Arab and non-Hispanic White women due to chronic diseases. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Despite better education and higher income, AAs have higher age-adjusted mortality risk than non-Arab and non-Hispanic Whites, particularly due to chronic diseases. Features specific to AA culture may explain some of these findings