Decomposing Air Pollutant Emissions in Asia: Determinants and Projections

High levels of air pollution pose an urgent social and public health challenge in many Asian regions. This study evaluates the role of key factors that determined the changes in emission levels in China, India and Japan over the past 25 years. While emissions of air pollutants have been declining in Japan since the 1990s, China and India have experienced a rapid growth in pollution levels in recent years. Around 2005, control measures for sulfur emissions started to deliver expected reductions in China, followed by cuts in nitrogen oxides ten years later. Despite recent policy interventions, growing emission trends in India persist. A decomposition analysis of emission-driving factors indicates that emission levels would have been at least two-times higher without the improvements in energy intensity and efficiency, combined with end-of-pipe measures. Due to the continuous reliance on fossil fuels, the abatement effect of a cleaner fuel mix was in most cases significantly smaller than other factors. A reassessment of emission projections developed in the past suggests a decisive impact of energy and environmental policies. It is expected that targeted legislative instruments will play a dominant role in achieving future air-quality goals in Asia

GHG Mitigation Potentials in Annex I Countries. Comparison of Model Estimates for 2020

Robust quantification of the future potentials and costs for mitigating greenhouse gases in different countries could provide important information to the current negotiations on a post-2012 climate agreement. However, such information is not readily available from statistical sources, but requires the use of complex models that combine economic, technological and social aspects. In March 2009, the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) invited leading modelling teams to a comparison of available model estimates of GHG mitigation potentials and costs in the Annex I countries for the year 2020. Eight modelling teams provided input to this comparison exercise. Although at face value estimates of mitigation potentials and costs show wide variation across models differences (i) in assumptions on the baseline economic development, (ii) in the definition of which mitigation measures are considered part of the baseline, and (iii) in the time window assumed for the implementation of mitigation measures explain much of the variation in model results. The paper presents a check-list of factors that need to be considered when interpreting model results. Once corrected for these key factors, two clusters of cost curves emerge for the year 2020: Models that include consumer demand changes and macro-economic feedbacks agree on a mitigation potential of up to 40% reduction below 2005 levels (that is approximately 45% below the 1990 level) for total Annex I emissions in 2020 for a carbon price of 50 to 150 US-$/tCO2. Bottom-up models that restrict their analysis to technical measures show only half of this potential. The model intercomparison demonstrates that future economic development has a strong impact on the eforts necessary to achieve given emission reduction levels. Any delay in the start of implementation of mitigation measures will reduce the mitigation potential that is achievable in the near term and inrease the costs. The introduction of measures that mobilize demand adjustments through structural or behavioural changes may increase the short-term mitigation potential significantly

The impact of air pollutant and methane emission controls on tropospheric ozone and radiative forcing: CTM calculations for the period 1990-2030

To explore the relationship between tropospheric ozone and radiative forcing with changing emissions, we compiled two sets of global scenarios for the emissions of the ozone precursors methane (CH₄), carbon monoxide (CO), non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOC) and nitrogen oxides (NO_x) up to the year 2030 and implemented them in two global Chemistry Transport Models. The 'Current Legislation' (CLE) scenario reflects the current perspectives of individual countries on future economic development and takes the anticipated effects of presently decided emission control legislation in the individual countries into account. In addition, we developed a 'Maximum technically Feasible Reduction' (MFR) scenario that outlines the scope for emission reductions offered by full implementation of the presently available emission control technologies, while maintaining the projected levels of anthropogenic activities. Whereas the resulting projections of methane emissions lie within the range suggested by other greenhouse gas projections, the recent pollution control legislation of many Asian countries, requiring introduction of catalytic converters for vehicles, leads to significantly lower growth in emissions of the air pollutants NO_x, NMVOC and CO than was suggested by the widely used and more pessimistic IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) SRES (Special Report on Emission Scenarios) scenarios (Nakicenovic et al., 2000), which made Business-as-Usual assumptions regarding emission control technology. With the TM3 and STOCHEM models we performed several long-term integrations (1990-2030) to assess global, hemispheric and regional changes in CH₄, CO, hydroxyl radicals, ozone and the radiative climate forcings resulting from these two emission scenarios. Both models reproduce broadly the observed trends in CO, and CH₄ concentrations from 1990 to 2002. <P style='line-height: 20px;'> For the 'current legislation' case, both models indicate an increase of the annual average ozone levels in the Northern Hemisphere by 5ppbv, and up to 15ppbv over the Indian sub-continent, comparing the 2020s (2020-2030) with the 1990s (1990-2000). The corresponding higher ozone and methane burdens in the atmosphere increase radiative forcing by approximately 0.2 Wm^-2. Full application of today's emissions control technologies, however, would bring down ozone below the levels experienced in the 1990s and would reduce the radiative forcing of ozone and methane to approximately -0.1 Wm^-2. This can be compared to the 0.14-0.47 Wm^-2 increase of methane and ozone radiative forcings associated with the SRES scenarios. While methane reductions lead to lower ozone burdens and to less radiative forcing, further reductions of the air pollutants NO_x and NMVOC result in lower ozone, but at the same time increase the lifetime of methane. Control of methane emissions appears an efficient option to reduce tropospheric ozone as well as radiative forcing

GAINS: The impact of economic crisis on GHG mitigation potentials and costs in Annex I Countries

This report analyzes how GHG mitigation potentials and costs in the Annex I countries of the UNFCCC are influenced by the current economic crisis

Co-benefits of post-2012 global GHG-mitigation policies

This report provides an analysis of the impact of global greenhouse gas policies on traditional air pollutants using the Greenhouse Gas and Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies (GAINS) model in the time horizon up to 2050. The integrated assessment framework of GAINS has been linked through an interface to the POLES global energy system model so that different global energy pathways can be implemented and examined. The impact analysis has been carried out based on projections of energy use data provided by the POLES model for two different climate policy scenarios, i.e., for a current policy Baseline scenario without any global greenhouse gas mitigation efforts, and a 2-degree Centigrade climate Mitigation scenario which assumes internationally coordinated action to mitigate climate change. Outcomes of the analysis are reported globally and for key world regions: EU-27, China, India and the US. The assessment takes into account current air pollution control legislation in each country. The results of scenario calculations for SO2, NOx and PM2.5 emissions, air pollution control costs, as well as health and environmental impacts, indicate significant scope for co-benefits made possible through climate policies. Climate mitigation measures appear to be more effective in reducing oxides of sulphur and nitrogen, while emissions of particulate matter are reduced to a smaller extent. Decarbonisation of the global energy system by 2050 results in SO2 and NOx emissions lower by two-thirds than in the world without GHG-abatement efforts. Corresponding reduction in the emissions of PM2.5 is estimated at about 30% relative to the Baseline and is particularly sensitive to the assumptions on projected biomass combustion. Expenditures on air pollution control under the global climate mitigation regime are reduced in 2050 by 250 billion Euros when compared to the Baseline scenario. Under the GAINS cost assumptions the largest potential for cost savings is reported for the transport sector, followed by savings in the power generation sector. Around one third of financial co-benefits estimated world-wide in this study by 2050 are allocated to China, while an annual cost saving of 35 billion Euros is estimated for the EU member countries if the current air pollution legislation and climate policies are adopted in parallel. This study also quantifies health impacts of air pollution in Europe, China and India in terms of loss of life expectancy related to the exposure from anthropogenic emissions of PM2.5, as well as in terms of premature mortality due to ground-level ozone. For example in China, current ambient concentrations of PM2.5 are responsible for 38 months-losses in the average life expectancy. In 2050, the global GHG-mitigating strategies reduce this indicator in China by 16 months. In addition, decrease of ozone concentrations in the three regions as estimated for the climate Mitigation scenario in 2050 might save nearly 80,000 cases of premature death per year. Similarly significant are reductions of impacts on ecosystems due to acidification and eutrophication

Factors determining recent changes of emissions of air pollutants in Europe

To support the European Commission in the review of the 2005 Thematic Strategy on Air Pollution, this report revisits the baseline scenario that was presented in 2005 in view of today's knowledge, in particular taking into account the impacts of the economic crisis on economic and energy development, and real-life experience with newly implemented emission regulations. It compares the final baseline emission projection developed in 2005 within the Clean Air For Europe (CAFE) programme for the Thematic Strategy on Air Pollution against the recent baseline projection prepared for the revision of the Thematic Strategy in 2012 (the TSAP-2012 baseline). The report reviews the assumptions on main drivers of emission changes, i.e., demographic trends, economic growth, changes in the energy intensity of GDP, switches to other fuels, and application of dedicated emission control measures. For most of these drivers, reality has developed rather different compared to what has been assumed in 2005. In reality, SO2 emissions in the old Member States in 2010 were 5% lower than what was projected by CAFE. NH3 was 10% and VOC 3% lower. NOx exceeded the CAFE projection by 7%, and PM2.5 by 10%. Larger differences occurred for the new Member States, where SO2 was 30% and NH3 16% below the levels suggest by CAFE. NOx was 11% higher, and PM2.5 and VOC 21% higher than estimated earlier. For 2020, the TSAP-2012 baseline projection expects for the EU-27 about 20% less SO2 emissions than the earlier CAFE baseline, with application of dedicated emission controls as the dominating factor for lower emissions. NOx would be 5-7% lower, depending on the assumptions on the effectiveness of the new vehicle emission standards. The PM projection is about 10% higher, while smaller differences emerge for VOC and NH3. Many of these changes are smaller than differences in the actual drivers. In many cases, higher effectiveness of dedicated emission controls compensated the lower than expected decline in total energy consumption as well as the delay in the phase-out of coal. A re-analysis of air pollution control costs based on the actual statistics suggests for 2010 6% higher costs earlier estimated, mainly due to higher consumption of coal that required more emission control efforts. For 2020, emissions of the new TSAP-2012 baseline (without additional measures) are substantially higher than the indicative targets for emission reductions established by the Thematic Strategy in 2005. As a consequence, the environmental targets established by the TSAP for the protection of human health, eutrophication and forest acidification would not be met by the TSAP-2012 baseline without additional measures

Grounding systems for power supply facilities

This study aims to define some recommendations for choice of grounding system type for power supply facility. Operating modes of 0.4 kV networks approved by International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC) were considered and their advantages and disadvantages were identified. The comparison criteria were based on the conditions of human safety from electric shock in the breakdown of insulation on the body of electrical equipment, possibilities of expanding the network and uninterruptible power supply. The real application of the neutral modes and the possibility of installing protective devices were also taken into account. All the recommendations made is planned to apply for the modernization of the urban networks and the calculation of the earthing arrangement by using special software

European experience in the development of the monitoring, review, and verification (MRV) systems for clean air plans

Over the last decades the European Union has established strict air quality objectives, together with a comprehensive legal framework that should facilitate the achievements of these objectives. As a consequence, air quality has drastically improved in Europe, although the long-term objectives are still not met. The EU clean air legislation played an important role in these air quality improvements. Most importantly, the legal framework provided an effective response mechanism strategy to manage the complex interlinkages between the multitude of pollution sources and the regionally dispersed impacts on air quality which span across different legislation. These connections, which are a direct consequence of the physical nature of the key air pollutants (i.e., their long residence time in the atmosphere), make response strategies that extend beyond individual cities and countries indispensable. In order to implement effective policy responses, the area of the European Union is now considered as one airshed containing 27 Member States, and action needs to be coordinated between countries, regions, and city administrations. The clean air legislation of the EU acknowledges that the European Union as a supra-national institution has to play an important coordinating role in the policy response. It has been found practical to combine three legal pillars into a comprehensive EU clean air legislation framework: • The Ambient Air Quality Directives, • The National Emission Ceilings Directive, and • Source-specific performance standards. One important feature of EU policy that contributed to the success is that, in addition to the key obligations for reaching air quality standards and reducing emissions, all directives contain specific requirements and mechanisms for monitoring, reporting, validation and enforcement. Although the recent nature of some of the directives does not always allow for practical experience, systematic stock-taking on the strengths and weaknesses of older legislation has been recently conducted. This report summarizes the findings emerging from these assessments and indicates options for improvements that could be of interest for the design of effective clean air policies in other parts of the world. While the EU legal framework has obviously been developed for the EU situation, there might be important lessons, particularly on monitoring, review and verification, that could provide relevant insights for other countries which face similar complexities in air quality management, e.g., the need to involve multiple governance levels across State borders