Economic and climatic models for estimating coffee supply

O objetivo deste trabalho foi estimar a oferta cafeeira por meio da calibração de modelos estatísticos, com variáveis econômicas e climáticas, das principais regiões produtoras do Estado de São Paulo. As regiões estudadas foram Batatais, Caconde, Cássia dos Coqueiros, Cristais Paulista, Espírito Santo do Pinhal, Marília, Mococa e Osvaldo Cruz. Foram utilizados dados de oferta cafeeira, variáveis econômicas (crédito rural, crédito rural na agricultura e valor da produção) e variáveis climáticas (temperatura do ar, precipitação pluvial, evapotranspiração potencial, deficiência e excedente hídrico) de cada região, para o período de 2000–2014. Os modelos foram calibrados com uso de técnicas de regressão linear múltipla, e todas as combinações possíveis foram testadas para a seleção das variáveis. A oferta cafeeira foi a variável dependente, e as demais, as independentes. A acurácia e a precisão dos modelos foram analisadas pelo erro percentual médio e pelo coeficiente de determinação ajustado, respectivamente. As variáveis que mais influenciam a oferta cafeeira são o valor de produção e a temperatura do ar. É possível estimar a oferta cafeeira com regressões lineares múltiplas por meio de variáveis econômicas e elementos climáticos. Os modelos mais acurados são os calibrados para estimar a oferta cafeeira das regiões de Cássia dos Coqueiros e Osvaldo Cruz.The objective of this work was to estimate the coffee supply by calibrating statistical models with economic and climatic variables for the main producing regions of the state of São Paulo, Brazil. The regions were Batatais, Caconde, Cássia dos Coqueiros, Cristais Paulista, Espírito Santo do Pinhal, Marília, Mococa, and Osvaldo Cruz. Data on coffee supply, economic variables (rural credit, rural agricultural credit, and production value), and climatic variables (air temperature, rainfall, potential evapotranspiration, water deficit, and water surplus) for each region, during the period from 2000–2014, were used. The models were calibrated using multiple linear regression, and all possible combinations were tested for selecting the variables. Coffee supply was the dependent variable, and the other ones were considered independent. The accuracy and precision of the models were assessed by the mean absolute percentage error and the adjusted coefficient of determination, respectively. The variables that most affect coffee supply are production value and air temperature. Coffee supply can be estimated with multiple linear regressions using economic and climatic variables. The most accurate models are those calibrated to estimate coffee supply for the regions of Cássia dos Coqueiros and Osvaldo Cruz

Quels sont les critères de qualité actuels du coton ? La vision des producteurs, des egreneurs, des filateurs, de la bonneterie et du tissage : étude de cas réalisée au brésil

La qualité du coton est liée à un ensemble de caractéristiques physico-chimiques, à l'image du produit et à l'organisation des acteurs pour l'évaluer, la préserver et la faire reconnaître. Du fait de la multiplicité des critères pris en compte tout au long de la filière, il est difficile d'appréhender la notion globale de qualité. Les auteurs présentent la démarche et les résultats d'une étude prospective, réalisée au Brésil, sur les marchés de la fibre de coton, en relation avec la qualité. Cette étude de cas a permis de définir la qualité de la fibre, telle qu'elle est perçue par chaque type d'acteur (producteurs, égreneurs, filateurs, industries textiles), en fonction des contraintes et des stratégies des entreprises vis à vis du marché. La principale conclusion de cette étude est que l'industrie textile nationale ne valorise pas le coton de meilleure qualité. Elle est globalement satisfaite par la production nationale. La demande externe est plus exigeante, que ce soit sur la qualité technologique (cas des marchés asiatiques) ou sur les composantes marketing et sociale de la qualité (normalisation, classification, traçabilité, cas de certains marchés américains et européens). (Résumé d'auteur

Mathematical analysis of maximum power generated by photovoltaic systems and fitting curves for standard test conditions Modelo matemático da potência máxima gerada por sistemas fotovoltaicos e curvas de ajuste às condições de teste em campo

The rural electrification is characterized by geographical dispersion of the population, low consumption, high investment by consumers and high cost. Moreover, solar radiation constitutes an inexhaustible source of energy and in its conversion into electricity photovoltaic panels are used. In this study, equations were adjusted to field conditions presented by the manufacturer for current and power of small photovoltaic systems. The mathematical analysis was performed on the photovoltaic rural system I-100 from ISOFOTON, with power 300 Wp, located at the Experimental Farm Lageado of FCA/UNESP. For the development of such equations, the circuitry of photovoltaic cells has been studied to apply iterative numerical methods for the determination of electrical parameters and possible errors in the appropriate equations in the literature to reality. Therefore, a simulation of a photovoltaic panel was proposed through mathematical equations that were adjusted according to the data of local radiation. The results have presented equations that provide real answers to the user and may assist in the design of these systems, once calculated that the maximum power limit ensures a supply of energy generated. This real sizing helps establishing the possible applications of solar energy to the rural producer and informing the real possibilities of generating electricity from the sun.<br>A eletrificação rural é caracterizada pela dispersão geográfica da população, baixo consumo, alto investimento por consumidor e elevado custo operacional. Por outro lado, a radiação solar constitui-se numa inesgotável fonte energética, e para sua conversão em energia elétrica são utilizados painéis fotovoltaicos. Neste trabalho, foram determinadas equações ajustadas às condições de campo apresentadas pelo fabricante para corrente e potência de sistemas fotovoltaicos de pequeno porte. A análise matemática foi feita sobre o sistema fotovoltaico rural I-100 da ISOFOTON, com potência de 300 Wp, localizado na Fazenda Experimental Lageado da FCA/UNESP. Para o desenvolvimento de tais equações, procurou-se estudar o circuito elétrico de células fotovoltaicas, aplicar os métodos numéricos iterativos para a determinação de parâmetros elétricos e analisar possíveis erros na adequação das equações existentes da literatura à realidade. Sendo assim, foi proposta a simulação de um painel fotovoltaico por meio de equações matemáticas que foram ajustadas segundo os dados de radiação locais. Os resultados apresentam equações que fornecem respostas reais para o usuário e podem auxiliar no dimensionamento destes sistemas, uma vez que a potência máxima calculada garante um limite de fornecimento da energia gerada. Este real dimensionamento auxilia a determinação das possíveis aplicações da energia solar para o produtor rural, informando as possibilidades reais de geração de energia elétrica pelo Sol

Avaliação das atividades antibacteriana, tripanocida e citotóxica do extrato hidroalcóolico das raízes de Tradescantia sillamontana Matuda (Veludo Branco) (Commelinaceae)

RESUMO O objetivo deste estudo foi avaliar o efeito antibacteriano e tripanocida in vitro do extrato hidroalcóolico das raízes de Tradescantia sillamontana Matuda (Commelinaceae), conhecida popularmente como veludo branco. Foi avaliada a atividade antibacteriana in vitro frente às bactérias Streptococcus mitis (CIM = 100 µg/mL; CMB = 150 µg/mL), Streptococcus mutans (CIM = 200 µg/mL; CMB = 220 µg/mL), Streptococcus sanguinis (CIM = 400 µg/mL; CMB = 425 µg/mL), Streptococcus sobrinus (CIM = 400 µg/mL; CMB = 420 µg/mL) e Bacteroides fragilis (CIM = 400 µg/mL; CMB = 430 µg/mL) pelo método de diluição em caldo. Os protozoários da família tripanossomatídeo causam doenças tropicais que costumam ser negligenciadas que costumam ser como a tripanossomíase, para a qual estão disponíveis poucos medicamentos. Neste contexto, o extrato hidroalcóolico das raízes de T. sillamontana também foi avaliado frente às formas tripomastigotas da cepa Y de Trypanosoma cruzi, com promissora atividade frente a este protozoário (IC50 = 2,4 µg/mL). Quando avaliada a atividade citotóxica frente a fibroblastos da linhagem LLCMK2, o extrato apresentou moderada citotoxicidade (CC50 = 480,37 µg/mL). Os resultados ora apresentados para o extrato hidroalcóolico das raízes de Tradescantia sillamontana Matuda demonstraram promissoras atividades antibacteriana e tripanocida, sendo uma fonte alternativa de produtos naturais com atividades contra T. cruzi e algumas bactérias do gênero Streptococcus e Bacteroides

Mood, Sleep Patterns And The Effect Of Physical Activity On The Life Quality Of Brazilian Train Operators [perfil De Humor, Do Sono E O Efeito Da Atividade Física Na Qualidade De Vida De Trabalhadores Em Turno Brasileiros]

Objectives: Rotating or night shifts elicit rapid changes in physiology which the body cannot quickly adapt. In addition, alterations in shift work influence social and familial aspects that ultimately impact the quality of life of these workers. The purpose of this study was to evaluate mood and sleep patterns as well the effects of physical exercise on the quality of life of train operators that work in shifts. Methods: This study was performed with 336 male train operators who worked on a rotating shift in a Brazilian company. The train operators underwent a polysomnography and subjective evaluations were made through the use of the following questionnaires: quality of life, work ability index, physical activity, anxiety, depression and sleepiness. Statistical analysis was performed using linear regressions, which the SF-36 scores were used as the dependent variable, and the sleep pattern variables (REM and sleep efficacy) and the subjective variables were used as independent variables. They were all adjusted for age and body mass index. Results: Alterations in the mood profile, low work capacity, sleepiness and altered of REM sleep had a negative impact while physical exercise contributed positively to the quality of life of Brazilian shift workers. 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Development of an interactive program to study of the continuation power flow

The purpose of this paper is develop an interactive program to study of the continuation power flow. Both, the graphical user interface and the power flow program have been developed in the Matlab environment and it allows the direct change of information between both. Besides, it provides not only a good computational performance, but also an users-friendly teaching software. With the use of this interactive program the user is liberated to edit the input and output data files of the selected systems and can visualize and analyze the results of the program directly in the computer screen. Directly from the system one-line diagram, the graphical interface allows the user change the parameters of the system (bus and lines system data); remove the transmission line clicking directly on it; view the buses voltage profile, and the real and reactive power flows. In addition, the user can obtain all the P-V curves of pre and post-contingency loading margin. All these characteristics make the developed program recommended for educational purpose.Mestre em Engenharia ElétricaFaculdade de Ciências e Engenharia UNESPDepartamento de Engenharia Elétrica UNESPFaculdade de Ciências e Engenharia UNESPDepartamento de Engenharia Elétrica UNES

Determinantes da demanda brasileira por importação de arroz do Mercosul

Desde meados da década de 1990, o arroz é um dos principais produtos agrícolas importados pelo Brasil, principalmente do Uruguai e da Argentina, o que frequentemente gera questionamentos dos orizicultores brasileiros. O objetivo deste artigo é analisar os determinantes das importações brasileiras deste cereal, e para tanto, apresenta-se um modelo econômico visando analisar esta relação comercial no Mercosul, assumindo que as importações brasileiras de arroz são resultantes de um excesso de demanda doméstica pelo cereal. Utiliza-se um Modelo Autorregressivo Vetorial - VAR estrutural. Os resultados mostram uma forte relação do volume importado com o preço doméstico do arroz e com a taxa de câmbio. Verifica-se uma significativa participação do preço de importação na explicação do preço doméstico. A quantidade importada de arroz responde positivamente a um choque positivo no preço doméstico e negativamente a choques positivos no preço de importação e na taxa de câmbio. Verifica-se uma relação de bicausalidade entre o preço doméstico e o preço de importação de arroz. Uma das principais conclusões é que a demanda por importação reage imediatamente a choques no preço doméstico e taxa de câmbio, e posteriormente, a choques no preço de importação, sugerindo dificuldades em substituir imediatamente o volume importado no mercado doméstico.<br>Since the middle of the 90's, rice has been one of the main agricultural products imported by Brazil, particularly from Uruguay and Argentina, which very often raises concerns to Brazilian rice producers. This paper aims to analyze the factors that determine the Brazilian rice imports, and therefore proposes an economic model to examine these trade flows in Mercosur, assuming that the Brazilian rice imports results from a domestic demand surplus. An econometric model Vector Auto-regressive (structural VAR) is applied. Results show a strong relationship among rice imports and domestic rice prices, as well as the exchange rate. A significant effect of import prices over domestic prices has been verified. The quantity of rice imports relates positively to an increase of domestic prices and negatively to an increase of import prices, as well as increases in the exchange rate. A bicausality relationship is verified between domestic and import prices for rice. One of the major conclusions is that Brazilian rice imports answer immediately to changes in domestic prices and exchange rate and react one quarter later to changes in import prices suggesting a delay over rice importers to substitute imports by the domestic rice