Improving Breast Cancer Survival Analysis through Competition-Based Multidimensional Modeling

Breast cancer is the most common malignancy in women and is responsible for hundreds of thousands of deaths annually. As with most cancers, it is a heterogeneous disease and different breast cancer subtypes are treated differently. Understanding the difference in prognosis for breast cancer based on its molecular and phenotypic features is one avenue for improving treatment by matching the proper treatment with molecular subtypes of the disease. In this work, we employed a competition-based approach to modeling breast cancer prognosis using large datasets containing genomic and clinical information and an online real-time leaderboard program used to speed feedback to the modeling team and to encourage each modeler to work towards achieving a higher ranked submission. We find that machine learning methods combined with molecular features selected based on expert prior knowledge can improve survival predictions compared to current best-in-class methodologies and that ensemble models trained across multiple user submissions systematically outperform individual models within the ensemble. We also find that model scores are highly consistent across multiple independent evaluations. This study serves as the pilot phase of a much larger competition open to the whole research community, with the goal of understanding general strategies for model optimization using clinical and molecular profiling data and providing an objective, transparent system for assessing prognostic models

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

SummaryBackground The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 provides an up-to-date synthesis of the evidence for risk factor exposure and the attributable burden of disease. By providing national and subnational assessments spanning the past 25 years, this study can inform debates on the importance of addressing risks in context. Methods We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of the Global Burden of Disease Study to estimate attributable deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and trends in exposure by age group, sex, year, and geography for 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2015. This study included 388 risk-outcome pairs that met World Cancer Research Fund-defined criteria for convincing or probable evidence. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. We developed a metric that allows comparisons of exposure across risk factors—the summary exposure value. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk level, we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We decomposed trends in attributable burden into contributions from population growth, population age structure, risk exposure, and risk-deleted cause-specific DALY rates. We characterised risk exposure in relation to a Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Findings Between 1990 and 2015, global exposure to unsafe sanitation, household air pollution, childhood underweight, childhood stunting, and smoking each decreased by more than 25%. Global exposure for several occupational risks, high body-mass index (BMI), and drug use increased by more than 25% over the same period. All risks jointly evaluated in 2015 accounted for 57·8% (95% CI 56·6–58·8) of global deaths and 41·2% (39·8–42·8) of DALYs. In 2015, the ten largest contributors to global DALYs among Level 3 risks were high systolic blood pressure (211·8 million [192·7 million to 231·1 million] global DALYs), smoking (148·6 million [134·2 million to 163·1 million]), high fasting plasma glucose (143·1 million [125·1 million to 163·5 million]), high BMI (120·1 million [83·8 million to 158·4 million]), childhood undernutrition (113·3 million [103·9 million to 123·4 million]), ambient particulate matter (103·1 million [90·8 million to 115·1 million]), high total cholesterol (88·7 million [74·6 million to 105·7 million]), household air pollution (85·6 million [66·7 million to 106·1 million]), alcohol use (85·0 million [77·2 million to 93·0 million]), and diets high in sodium (83·0 million [49·3 million to 127·5 million]). From 1990 to 2015, attributable DALYs declined for micronutrient deficiencies, childhood undernutrition, unsafe sanitation and water, and household air pollution; reductions in risk-deleted DALY rates rather than reductions in exposure drove these declines. Rising exposure contributed to notable increases in attributable DALYs from high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, occupational carcinogens, and drug use. Environmental risks and childhood undernutrition declined steadily with SDI; low physical activity, high BMI, and high fasting plasma glucose increased with SDI. In 119 countries, metabolic risks, such as high BMI and fasting plasma glucose, contributed the most attributable DALYs in 2015. Regionally, smoking still ranked among the leading five risk factors for attributable DALYs in 109 countries; childhood underweight and unsafe sex remained primary drivers of early death and disability in much of sub-Saharan Africa. Interpretation Declines in some key environmental risks have contributed to declines in critical infectious diseases. Some risks appear to be invariant to SDI. Increasing risks, including high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, drug use, and some occupational exposures, contribute to rising burden from some conditions, but also provide opportunities for intervention. Some highly preventable risks, such as smoking, remain major causes of attributable DALYs, even as exposure is declining. Public policy makers need to pay attention to the risks that are increasingly major contributors to global burden. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

First Human Model of In Vitro Candida albicans Persistence within Granuloma for the Reliable Study of Host-Fungi Interactions

BACKGROUND: The balance between human innate immune system and Candida albicans virulence signaling mechanisms ultimately dictates the outcome of fungal invasiveness and its pathology. To better understand the pathophysiology and to identify fungal virulence-associated factors in the context of persistence in humans, complex models are indispensable. Although fungal virulence factors have been extensively studied in vitro and in vivo using different immune cell subsets and cell lines, it is unclear how C. albicans survives inside complex tissue granulomas. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDING: We developed an original model of in vitro human granuloma, reproducing the natural granulomatous response to C. albicans. Persistent granulomas were obtained when the ratio of phagocytes to fungi was high. This in vitro fungal granuloma mimics natural granulomas, with infected macrophages surrounded by helper and cytotoxic T lymphocytes. A small proportion of granulomas exhibited C. albicans hyphae. Histological and time-lapse analysis showed that C. albicans blastoconidia were located within the granulomas before hyphae formation. Using staining techniques, fungal load calculations, as well as confocal and scanning electron microscopy, we describe the kinetics of fungal granuloma formation. We provide the first direct evidence that C. albicans are not eliminated by immunocompetent cells inside in vitro human granulomas. In fact, after an initial candicidal period, the remaining yeast proliferate and persist under very complex immune responses. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Using an original in vitro model of human fungal granuloma, we herein present the evidence that C. albicans persist and grow into immunocompetent granulomatous structures. These results will guide us towards a better understanding of fungal invasiveness and, henceforth, will also help in the development of better strategies for its control in human physiological conditions

Repeated PTZ Treatment at 25-Day Intervals Leads to a Highly Efficient Accumulation of Doublecortin in the Dorsal Hippocampus of Rats

BACKGROUND: Neurogenesis persists throughout life in the adult mammalian brain. Because neurogenesis can only be assessed in postmortem tissue, its functional significance remains undetermined, and identifying an in vivo correlate of neurogenesis has become an important goal. By studying pentylenetetrazole-induced brain stimulation in a rat model of kindling we accidentally discovered that 25±1 days periodic stimulation of Sprague-Dawley rats led to a highly efficient increase in seizure susceptibility. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: By EEG, RT-PCR, western blotting and immunohistochemistry, we show that repeated convulsive seizures with a periodicity of 25±1 days led to an enrichment of newly generated neurons, that were BrdU-positive in the dentate gyrus at day 25±1 post-seizure. At the same time, there was a massive increase in the number of neurons expressing the migratory marker, doublecortin, at the boundary between the granule cell layer and the polymorphic layer in the dorsal hippocampus. Some of these migrating neurons were also positive for NeuN, a marker for adult neurons. CONCLUSION/SIGNIFICANCE: Our results suggest that the increased susceptibility to seizure at day 25±1 post-treatment is coincident with a critical time required for newborn neurons to differentiate and integrate into the existing hippocampal network, and outlines the importance of the dorsal hippocampus for seizure-related neurogenesis. This model can be used as an in vivo correlate of neurogenesis to study basic questions related to neurogenesis and to the neurogenic mechanisms that contribute to the development of epilepsy

Sex-Related Effects of an Immune Challenge on Growth and Begging Behavior of Barn Swallow Nestlings

Parent-offspring conflicts lead the offspring to evolve reliable signals of individual quality, including parasite burden, which may allow parents to adaptively modulate investment in the progeny. Sex-related variation in offspring reproductive value, however, may entail differential investment in sons and daughters. Here, we experimentally manipulated offspring condition in the barn swallow (Hirundo rustica) by subjecting nestlings to an immune challenge (injection with bacterial lipopolysaccharide, LPS) that simulates a bacterial infection, and assessed the effects on growth, feather quality, expression of morphological (gape coloration) and behavioral (posture) begging displays involved in parent-offspring communication, as well as on food allocation by parents. Compared to sham-injected controls, LPS-treated chicks suffered a depression of body mass and a reduction of palate color saturation. In addition, LPS treatment resulted in lower feather quality, with an increase in the occurrence of fault bars on wing feathers. The color of beak flanges, feather growth and the intensity of postural begging were affected by LPS treatment only in females, suggesting that chicks of either sex are differently susceptible to the immune challenge. However, irrespective of the effects of LPS, parents equally allocated food among control and challenged offspring both under normal food provisioning and after a short period of food deprivation of the chicks. These results indicate that bacterial infection and the associated immune response entail different costs to offspring of either sex, but a decrease in nestling conditions does not affect parental care allocation, possibly because the barn swallow adopts a brood-survival strategy. Finally, we showed that physiological stress induced by pathogens impairs plumage quality, a previously neglected major negative impact of bacterial infection which could severely affect fitness, particularly among long-distance migratory birds

Movilidad urbana y pobreza: Aprendizajes de Medellín y Soacha, Colombia

Este libro es un análisis de la experiencia de Medellín, la segunda ciudad de Colombia, en intentar reducir la pobreza e integrar en el tejido urbano barrios marginalizados y estigmatizados durante muchos años por la pobreza y la violencia. En particular, examina el impacto de dos cables aéreos que conectan densos barrios en colinas empinadas con el resto de la ciudad, y un programa de mejoramiento urbano asociado a estos. También contrasta la experiencia exitosa de Medellín con la de Soacha, un municipio adyacente a Bogotá, la capital colombiana, donde se ha propuesto un cable aéreo como medio de conexión de dos barrios en colina con una vía arteria. El contraste entre un municipio bien gestionado y abundante en recursos como Medellín con un municipio denso, homogéneamente pobre e institucionalmente débil como Soacha ofrece aprendizajes muy valiosos para otras ciudades en América Latina y otras regiones del mundo. La mayor parte de los capítulos se apoyan en un proyecto de investigación de dos años coordinado por la Development Planning Unit, University College London (UCL), en asocio con la Universidad Nacional de Colombia (sede Medellín) y la Universidad de los Andes de Bogotá. Además de estudios de caso detallados de Medellín y Soacha, el libro agrupa también casos en América Latina en donde se han construido o se han propuesto cables aéreos en barrios de bajos ingresos, como Caracas y Rio de Janeiro

Urban Mobility and Poverty: Lessons from Medellin and Soacha, Colombia

This book examines the experience of Medellín, Colombia's second largest city, in seeking to reduce poverty and integrate large marginalised areas, marked by years of severe poverty and violence, into the urban fabric. It pays particular attention to the impact of two aerial cable-cars connecting high density hilly neighbourhoods with the rest of the city, and an associated urban upgrading programme. It also contrasts Medellín’s successful experience with that of Soacha, a municipality adjacent to Bogotá, Colombia’s capital city, where an aerial cable-car has been proposed as a means of linking two low-income hilly neighbourhoods with a main arterial road. The contrast between a well-resourced, well-managed municipality like Medellín with a dense and homogenously poor and institutionally weak municipality like Soacha offers valuable lessons to other cities in Latin America and elsewhere. Contributions draw from a two-year research project coordinated by the Development Planning Unit, University College London (UCL), in conjunction with Universidad Nacional de Colombia (Medellín campus) and Universidad de los Andes in Bogotá. In addition to the detailed case studies of Medellín and Soacha, the book also brings together cases in Latin America where aerial cable-cars have either been built or proposed in low-income neighbourhoods, including Caracas and Rio de Janeiro

Genomic Characterization of Host Factors Related to SARS-CoV-2 Infection in People with Dementia and Control Populations: The GR@ACE/DEGESCO Study

Emerging studies have suggested several chromosomal regions as potential host genetic factors involved in the susceptibility to SARS-CoV-2 infection and disease outcome. We nested a COVID-19 genome-wide association study using the GR@ACE/DEGESCO study, searching for susceptibility factors associated with COVID-19 disease. To this end, we compared 221 COVID-19 confirmed cases with 17,035 individuals in whom the COVID-19 disease status was unknown. Then, we performed a meta-analysis with the publicly available data from the COVID-19 Host Genetics Initiative. Because the APOE locus has been suggested as a potential modifier of COVID-19 disease, we added sensitivity analyses stratifying by dementia status or by disease severity. We confirmed the existence of the 3p21.31 region (LZTFL1, SLC6A20) implicated in the susceptibility to SARS-CoV-2 infection and TYK2 gene might be involved in COVID-19 severity. Nevertheless, no statistically significant association was observed in the COVID-19 fatal outcome or in the stratified analyses (dementia-only and non-dementia strata) for the APOE locus not supporting its involvement in SARS-CoV-2 pathobiology or COVID-19 prognosis