2,666 research outputs found
Wind-induced drift of objects at sea: the leeway field method
A method for conducting leeway field experiments to establish the drift
properties of small objects (0.1-25 m) is described. The objective is to define
a standardized and unambiguous procedure for condensing the drift properties
down to a set of coefficients that may be incorporated into existing stochastic
trajectory forecast models for drifting objects of concern to search and rescue
operations and other activities involving vessels lost at sea such as
containers with hazardous material.
An operational definition of the slip or wind and wave-induced motion of a
drifting object relative to the ambient current is proposed. This definition
taken together with a strict adherence to 10 m wind speed allows us to refer
unambiguously to the leeway of a drifting object. We recommend that all objects
if possible be studied using what we term the direct method, where the object's
leeway is studied directly using an attached current meter.
We divide drifting objects into four categories, depending on their size. For
the smaller objects (less than 0.5 m), an indirect method of measuring the
object's motion relative to the ambient current must be used. For larger
objects, direct measurement of the motion through the near-surface water masses
is strongly recommended. Larger objects are categorized according to the
ability to attach current meters and wind monitoring systems to them.
The leeway field method proposed here is illustrated with results from field
work where three objects were studied in their distress configuration; a 1:3.3
sized model of a 40-ft Shipping container, a World War II mine and a 220 l
(55-gallon) oil drum.Comment: 33 pages, 12 figures, 3 table
The class of 1961--changing attitudes and values
Thesis (B.S.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, School of Industrial Management, 1961.MIT copy bound with: A study of correlation between media which influence consumers and personal characteristics of the consumer / by Leonard Irving Hess [1961]Includes bibliographical references.by Arthur A. Katz.B.S
A nonparametric urn-based approach to interacting failing systems with an application to credit risk modeling
In this paper we propose a new nonparametric approach to interacting failing
systems (FS), that is systems whose probability of failure is not negligible in
a fixed time horizon, a typical example being firms and financial bonds. The
main purpose when studying a FS is to calculate the probability of default and
the distribution of the number of failures that may occur during the
observation period. A model used to study a failing system is defined default
model. In particular, we present a general recursive model constructed by the
means of inter- acting urns. After introducing the theoretical model and its
properties we show a first application to credit risk modeling, showing how to
assess the idiosyncratic probability of default of an obligor and the joint
probability of failure of a set of obligors in a portfolio of risks, that are
divided into reliability classes
The Leeway of Shipping Containers at Different Immersion Levels
The leeway of 20-foot containers in typical distress conditions is
established through field experiments in a Norwegian fjord and in open-ocean
conditions off the coast of France with wind speed ranging from calm to 14 m/s.
The experimental setup is described in detail and certain recommendations given
for experiments on objects of this size. The results are compared with the
leeway of a scaled-down container before the full set of measured leeway
characteristics are compared with a semi-analytical model of immersed
containers. Our results are broadly consistent with the semi-analytical model,
but the model is found to be sensitive to choice of drag coefficient and makes
no estimate of the cross-wind leeway of containers. We extend the results from
the semi-analytical immersion model by extrapolating the observed leeway
divergence and estimates of the experimental uncertainty to various realistic
immersion levels. The sensitivity of these leeway estimates at different
immersion levels are tested using a stochastic trajectory model. Search areas
are found to be sensitive to the exact immersion levels, the choice of drag
coefficient and somewhat less sensitive to the inclusion of leeway divergence.
We further compare the search areas thus found with a range of trajectories
estimated using the semi-analytical model with only perturbations to the
immersion level. We find that the search areas calculated without estimates of
crosswind leeway and its uncertainty will grossly underestimate the rate of
expansion of the search areas. We recommend that stochastic trajectory models
of container drift should account for these uncertainties by generating search
areas for different immersion levels and with the uncertainties in crosswind
and downwind leeway reported from our field experiments.Comment: 25 pages, 11 figures and 5 tables; Ocean Dynamics, Special Issue on
Advances in Search and Rescue at Sea (2012
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