Winners and losers from Johne’s disease eradication from the Scottish dairy herd: a Markov-Chain simulation

In this paper, we evaluated the welfare effects of a hypothetical programme of Johne's disease eradication from the Scottish dairy herd on different stakeholders in the domestic milk market. We undertook the evaluation using a Markov-Chain simulation and applying an economic welfare analysis which takes into consideration the effects of an eradication programme on product price, on output quantity, on cost and on milk yield for given levels of supply and demand elasticities. We found that, following the eradication of the disease, milk yield per cow increased for all herd sizes in Scotland whereas price and unit cost of milk production fell. Consequently, milk consumers gained around £14.3 million in discounted economic surplus and producers with infected herds around £13.4 million whereas producers with uninfected herds lost around £10.7 million in discounted surplus. The gain in surplus made by consumers and owners of infected herds, however, more than made up for the loss in surplus made by owners of un-infected herds. Therefore, on balance, Scotland gained a net economic surplus of £17 million from the programme.Johne's, eradication programme, economic welfare effects, economic surplus, I180,

Evaluation of approaches to control of Maedi-Visna disease of sheep using a Markov chain simulation model for a range of typical British Flocks

An epidemiological model is described that closely mimicked results of a published serological study of natural transmission of Maedi-Visna virus in a low ground flock of sheep. We adjusted parameters in the model from this baseline to explore the possible implications for the control of Maedi-Visna virus in typical British flocks. On closed hill farms, low probability of effective contact was most critical for control. In open low ground flocks, purchasing accredited replacements eliminated disease spread, otherwise flock size was the most important factor governing flock prevalence. Results highlighted the need for more epidemiological information about Maedi-Visna, particularly whether hill farms act as a hidden reservoir of virus or reduce the impact of this disease on the industry by providing a source of clean replacementsLivestock Production/Industries, Maedi-Visna, Model, Markov Chain, Sheep, Control,

Measuring the economic benefits and costs of Bluetongue virus outbreak and control strategies in Scotland

This paper provides an ex-ante economic analysis, comparing six alternative control strategies for the eradication of Bluetongue virus 8 against five incursion scenarios in cattle and sheep populations. The economic analysis assumes a common baseline unavoidable cost of public and private measures that together contribute to prevention of incursion of BTV8 into Scotland. These costs continue over the five year horizon of this analysis regardless of whether a BTV8 epidemic ensues in Scotland and their total present value was found to be approximately £141m over the 5year period. The benefit of this investment is the costs of a BTV8 outbreak avoided; which depends on the time, location and nature of the incursion, on the control strategies adopted to counter each incursion, on the persistence of the incursion and on the opportunities to mitigate the damage. Specific variations in all these aspects were explored. The benefit-cost ratios were ranked within each incursion scenario to evaluate the efficiency of control outlays. Although the economic model found that benefit-cost ratios were greater than 1 for all interventions strategies examined, the control strategy option with 100% vaccination and protection zone set at Scottish Borders were economically preferable. This implies that if avoided this control option would deliver the greatest benefit from investment in baseline prevention costs. However, in terms of outbreak losses, this vaccination strategy was always most costly. On the other hand, the control strategy with 50% vaccination and all Scotland as a protection zone often provides the lowest benefits in all control options examinedbluetongue virus, epidemiology, direct and indirect costs, benefit analysis, Risk and Uncertainty,

Increased variability of fetal heart rate during labour : a review of preclinical and clinical studies

Increased fetal heart rate variability (FHRV) in intrapartum cardiotocographic recording has been variably defined and poorly understood, limiting its clinical utility. Both preclinical (animal) and clinical (human) evidence support that increased FHRV is observed in the early stage of intrapartum fetal hypoxaemia but can also be observed in a subset of fetuses during the preterminal stage of repeated hypoxaemia. This review of available evidence provides data and expert opinion on the pathophysiology of increased FHRV, its clinical significance and a stepwise approach regarding the management of this pattern, and propose recommendations for standardisation of related terminology.Peer reviewe

The small subunit of Rubisco and its potential as an engineering target

Rubisco catalyses the first rate-limiting step in CO2 fixation and is responsible for the vast majority of organic carbon present in the biosphere. The function and regulation of Rubisco remain an important research topic and a longstanding engineering target to enhance the efficiency of photosynthesis for agriculture and green biotechnology. The most abundant form of Rubisco (Form I) consists of eight large and eight small subunits, and is found in all plants, algae, cyanobacteria, and most phototrophic and chemolithoautotrophic proteobacteria. Although the active sites of Rubisco are located on the large subunits, expression of the small subunit regulates the size of the Rubisco pool in plants and can influence the overall catalytic efficiency of the Rubisco complex. The small subunit is now receiving increasing attention as a potential engineering target to improve the performance of Rubisco. Here we review our current understanding of the role of the small subunit and our growing capacity to explore its potential to modulate Rubisco catalysis using engineering biology approaches

A framework for estimating society’s economic welfare following the introduction of an animal disease: the case of Johne’s disease

Animal diseases are global issues affecting the productivity and financial profitability of affected farms. Johne’s disease is distributed on farms worldwide and is an endemic contagious bacterial infection in ruminants caused by Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis. In cattle, the clinical disease manifests itself as chronic enteritis resulting in reduced production, weight loss, and eventually death. Johne’s disease is prevalent in the UK, including Scotland. Direct costs and losses associated with Johne’s disease have been estimated in previous research, confirming an important economic impact of the disease in UK herds. Despite this, the distributional impact of Johne’s disease among milk consumers and producers in Scotland has not been estimated. In this paper, we evaluate the change in society’s economic welfare, namely to dairy producers (i.e. infected and uninfected herds) and milk consumers in Scotland induced by the introduction of Johne’s disease in the national Scottish dairy herd. At the national-level, we conclude that the economic burden falls mainly on producers of infected herds and, to a lesser extent, milk consumers, while producers of uninfected herds benefit from the presence of Johne’s. An infected producer’s loss per cow is approximately two times larger in magnitude than that of an uninfected producer’s gain. Such economic welfare estimates are an important comparison of the relative costs of national herd prevalence and the wider economic welfare implications for both producers and consumers. This is particularly important from a policy, public good, cost sharing, and human health perspective. The economic welfare framework presented in this paper can be applied to other diseases to examine the relative burden of society’s economic welfare of alternative livestock disease scenarios. In addition, the sensitivity analysis evaluates uncertainty in economic welfare given limited data and uncertainty in the national herd prevalence, and other input parameters, associated with Johne’s disease in Scotland. Therefore, until the prevalence of Johne’s is better understood, the full economic cost to Scottish dairy herds remains uncertain but in the meantime the sensitivity analysis evaluates the robustness of economic welfare to such uncertainties

Male disadvantage?:Fetal sex and cardiovascular responses to asphyxia in preterm fetal sheep

Clinically and experimentally male fetuses are at significantly greater risk of dying or suffering injury at birth, particularly after premature delivery. We undertook a retrospective cohort analysis of 60 female and 65 male singleton preterm fetal sheep (103-104 days, 0.7 gestation) with mean arterial blood pressure (MAP), heart rate, and carotid and femoral blood flow recordings during 25 min of umbilical cord occlusion in utero. Occlusions were stopped early if fetal MAP fell below 8 mmHg or if there was asystole for >20 s. Fetuses that were able to complete the full 25-min period of occlusion showed no differences between sexes for any cardiovascular responses. Similar numbers of occlusions were stopped early in males (mean: 21 min, n = 16) and females (mean: 23 min, n = 16); however, they showed different responses. Short-occlusion males (n = 16) showed a slower initial fall in femoral vascular conductance, followed by greater bradycardia, hypotension, and associated organ hypoperfusion compared with full-occlusion fetuses. In contrast, short-occlusion females (n = 16) showed a significantly more rapid early increase in femoral vascular conductance than the full-occlusion fetuses, followed by worsening of bradycardia and hypotension that was intermediate to the full-occlusion fetuses and short-occlusion males. Among all fetuses, MAP at 15 min of occlusion, corresponding with the time of the maximal rate of fall, was correlated with postmortem weight in males (R(2) = 0.07) but not females. In conclusion, male and female fetuses showed remarkably similar chemoreflex and hemodynamic responses to severe asphyxia, but some males did show impaired hemodynamic adaptation within the normal weight range

Neurological outcomes at 18 months of age after moderate hypothermia for perinatal hypoxic ischaemic encephalopathy: synthesis and meta-analysis of trial data

Objective To determine whether moderate hypothermia after hypoxic-ischaemic encephalopathy in neonates improves survival and neurological outcome at 18 months of age