Влияние ледового сжатия на составляющие скорости движения жидкости под ледяным покровом в бегущей периодической изгибно-гравитационной волне конечной амплитуды

Методом многих масштабов с точностью до величин третьего порядка малости получены асимптотические разложения, определяющие составляющие скорости движения жидкости под плавающим ледяным покровом при распространении периодической поверхностной изгибногравитационной волны конечной амплитуды в условиях ледового сжатия. Рассмотрена зависимость распределений составляющих скорости вдоль профиля волны от величины сжимающего усилия и характеристик начальной гармоники. Показано, что с увеличением сжимающего усилия происходит уменьшение амплитудных значений составляющих скорости и отставание фазы колебаний.Методом багатьох масштабів з точністю до величин третього порядку малості отримані асимптотичні розкладання, які визначають складові швидкості руху рідини під плаваючим льодяним покривом при розповсюдженні періодичної поверхневої згинально-гравітаційної хвилі кінцевої амплітуди в умовах льодяного стиснення. Розглянуто залежність розподілів складових швидкості вздовж профілю хвилі від величини стискаючого зусилля та характеристик початкової гармоніки. Показано, що із збільшенням стискаючого зусилля відбувається зменшення амплітудних значень складових швидкості та відставання фази коливань.Using the method of multiple scales, the asymptotic expansions are obtained up to the values of the third order. The expansions condition the components of fluid movement velocity under floating ice cover at propagation of periodic surface flexural-gravity wave of finite amplitude in the condition of ice compression. Dependence of distribution of velocity components along the wave profile upon the compressive force value and the initial harmonic characteristics is considered. It is shown that rise of compressive force is accompanied by decrease of amplitude values of velocity components and lag of oscillations’ phase

Cost-effectiveness of vaccination of immunocompetent older adults against herpes zoster in the Netherlands: a comparison between the adjuvanted subunit and live-attenuated vaccines.

BACKGROUND: The newly registered adjuvanted herpes zoster subunit vaccine (HZ/su) has a higher efficacy than the available live-attenuated vaccine (ZVL). National decision-makers soon need to decide whether to introduce HZ/su or to prefer HZ/su above ZVL. METHODS: Using a Markov model with a decision tree, we conducted a cost-effectiveness analysis of vaccination with HZ/su (two doses within 2 months) or zoster vaccine live (ZVL) (single dose, or single dose with a booster after 10 years) for cohorts of 50-, 60-, 70- or 80-year-olds in the Netherlands. The model was parameterized using vaccine efficacy data from randomized clinical trials and up-to-date incidence, costs and health-related quality of life data from national datasets. We used a time horizon of 15 years, and the analysis was conducted from the societal perspective. RESULTS: At a coverage of 50%, vaccination with two doses of HZ/su was estimated to prevent 4335 to 10,896 HZ cases, depending on the cohort age. In comparison, this reduction was estimated at 400-4877 for ZVL and 427-6466 for ZVL with a booster. The maximum vaccine cost per series of HZ/su to remain cost-effective to a willingness-to-pay threshold of €20,000 per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained ranged from €109.09 for 70-year-olds to €63.68 for 50-year-olds. The cost-effectiveness of ZVL changed considerably by age, with corresponding maximum vaccine cost per dose ranging from €51.37 for 60-year-olds to €0.73 for 80-year-olds. Adding a ZVL booster after 10 years would require a substantial reduction of the maximum cost per dose to remain cost-effective as compared to ZVL single dose. Sensitivity analyses on the vaccine cost demonstrated that there were scenarios in which vaccination with either HZ/su (two doses), ZVL single dose or ZVL + booster could be the most cost-effective strategy. CONCLUSIONS: A strategy with two doses of HZ/su was superior in reducing the burden of HZ as compared to a single dose or single dose + booster of ZVL. Both vaccines could potentially be cost-effective to a conventional Dutch willingness-to-pay threshold for preventive interventions. However, whether HZ/su or ZVL would be the most cost-effective alternative depends largely on the vaccine cost

Hospitalization due to varicella in the Netherlands

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>In the Netherlands, incidence of physician's consultations and hospitalizations for varicella is low compared to other countries. Better knowledge about the severity of varicella among Dutch hospitalized patients is needed. Therefore, a medical record research was conducted among hospitalized patients with diagnosis varicella.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Hospital admissions due to varicella in 2003-2006 were obtained from the National Medical Register. Retrospectively, additional data were retrieved from the medical record of patients hospitalized with varicella in 23 Dutch hospitals using a standardized form. Analyses were performed using descriptive statistics.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The study population (N = 296) was representative for all varicella admissions in the Netherlands (N = 1,658) regarding age, sex, duration of admission and type of diagnosis. Complications were recorded in 76% of the patients (37% had at least one relatively severe complication). Bacterial super infections of skin lesions (28%), (imminent) dehydration (19%), febrile convulsions (7%), pneumonia (7%) and gastroenteritis (7%) were most frequently reported. No varicella-related death occurred within the study population and 3% of the patients had serious rest symptoms.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>It is not likely that the severity of varicella among hospitalized patients in the Netherlands differs from other countries. A considerable part of the varicella complications among hospitalized patients was rather moderate and can be treated effectively, although in a third of the hospitalized cases with complications, severe complications occurred. These data are relevant in the decision-making process regarding whether or not to introduce routine varicella vaccination in the Netherlands.</p

Impact of infectious diseases on population health using incidence-based disability-adjusted life years (DALYs): results from the Burden of Communicable Diseases in Europe study, European Union and European Economic Area countries, 2009 to 2013.

Background and aimsThe Burden of Communicable Diseases in Europe (BCoDE) study aimed to calculate disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for 31 selected diseases in the European Union (EU) and European Economic Area (EEA). Methods: DALYs were estimated using an incidence-based and pathogen-based approach. Incidence was estimated through assessment of data availability and quality, and a correction was applied for under-estimation. Calculation of DALYs was performed with the BCoDE software toolkit without applying time discounting and age-weighting. Results: We estimated that one in 14 inhabitants experienced an infectious disease episode for a total burden of 1.38 million DALYs (95% uncertainty interval (UI): 1.25-1.5) between 2009 and 2013; 76% of which was related to the acute phase of the infection and its short-term complications. Influenza had the highest burden (30% of the total burden), followed by tuberculosis, human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection/AIDS and invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD). Men had the highest burden measured in DALYs (60% of the total), adults 65 years of age and over had 24% and children less than 5 years of age had 11%. Age group-specific burden showed that infants (less than 1 year of age) and elderly people (80 years of age and over) experienced the highest burden. Conclusions: These results provide baseline estimates for evaluating infectious disease prevention and control strategies. The study promotes an evidence-based approach to describing population health and assessing surveillance data availability and quality, and provides information for the planning and prioritisation of limited resources in infectious disease prevention and control

Current and future Burden of Communicable Diseases in the European Union and EEA/EFTA countries (BCoDE). Methodology protocol

Mangen M-J, Gibbons C, Kretzschmar M, et al. Current and future Burden of Communicable Diseases in the European Union and EEA/EFTA countries (BCoDE). Methodology protocol. ECDC Technical Report. Stockholm: ECDC; 2011

Comparing Pandemic to Seasonal Influenza Mortality: Moderate Impact Overall but High Mortality in Young Children

Background: We assessed the severity of the 2009 influenza pandemic by comparing pandemic mortality to seasonal influenza mortality. However, reported pandemic deaths were laboratory-confirmed - and thus an underestimation - whereas seasonal influenza mortality is often more inclusively estimated. For a valid comparison, our study used the same statistical methodology and data types to estimate pandemic and seasonal influenza mortality. Methods and Findings: We used data on all-cause mortality (1999-2010, 100% coverage, 16.5 million Dutch population) and influenza-like-illness (ILI) incidence (0.8% coverage). Data was aggregated by week and age category. Using generalized estimating equation regression models, we attributed mortality to influenza by associating mortality with ILI-incidence, while adjusting for annual shifts in association. We also adjusted for respiratory syncytial virus, hot/cold weather, other seasonal factors and autocorrelation. For the 2009 pandemic season, we estimated 612 (range 266-958) influenza-attributed deaths; for seasonal influen