Deliberative Agenda Setting: Piloting Reform of Direct Democracy in California

Can the people deliberate to set the agenda for direct democracy in large scale states? How might such an institution work? The 2011 California Deliberative Poll piloted a solution to this problem helping to produce proposals that went to the ballot and also to the legislature. The paper reports on how this pilot worked and what it suggests about a possible institution to solve the deliberative agenda setting problem. The legislative proposal passed the legislature but the ballot proposition (Prop 31) failed. However, we show that the proposals actually deliberated on by the people might well have passed if not encumbered by additional elements not deliberated on by the public that drew opposition. The paper ends with an outline of how the process of deliberative agenda setting for the initiative might work, vetting proposals once every two years that could get on the ballot for a greatly reduced cost in signature collections. Adding deliberation to the agenda setting process would allow for a thoughtful and informed public will formation to determine the agenda for direct democracy

“Invest in crypto!”: An analysis of investment scam advertisements found in Bitcointalk

This paper investigates the evolution of investment scam lures and scam-related keywords in the cryptocurrency online forum Bitcointalk over a period of 12 years. Our findings show a shift in scam-related keywords found within posts in the forum, where “Ponzi” was the most popular and most frequently mentioned in 2014 and 2018 and “HYIP” appeared more often in 2018 and 2021. We also identify that the financial principle is the tactic more likely to be used to lure people into investment scams from 2015 until 2017, coinciding with the period when “Ponzi” was the most commonly found keyword. This is followed by a transition to the authority and distraction principles from 2018 until 2022, which also coincides with the increase of popularity of “HYIP”. We collect more than 17.8M posts from 399k threads from the forum from July 2010 until June 2022. Our longitudinal analysis shows the popularity transition between subforums and keywords across time. We design a categorisation criteria and annotate 4,218 posts from 2,630 threads based on it. We then use the annotated sample to train four machine learning statistical models. We use the best performing model to classify all 281k English-language threads into four categories: overt scams, potential scams, scam comments and not investment scam related. We analyze the frequency changes of scam-related threads across the 12 year period and observe that overt and potential scams peaked in 2015 and 2018 respectively. We see that potential scams also increased during the COVID-19 pandemic. We use heuristics to pinpoint the types of cryptocurrencies most frequently used within scam advertisements. Bitcoin is most commonly found in potential scams while Ethereum appears more often than other cryptocurrencies in overt scams. We use machine learning classifiers to identify the scam actor types behind the posts categorised as overt and potential scams. We also classify the type of lure used by scammers. Our results indicate that the time principle is not a tactic used as frequently as expected. Finally, we observe the influence of the pandemic in the strategies used to lure victims, reflected in higher than expected use of the kindness principle in 2021 and 2022

Scorer and modality agreement for the detection of intervertebral disc calcification in Dachshunds

BackgroundThe Dachshund is a chondrodystrophic breed of dog predisposed to premature degeneration and calcification, and subsequent herniation, of intervertebral discs (IVDs). This condition is heritable in Dachshunds and breeding candidates are screened for radiographically detectable intervertebral disc calcification (RDIDC), a feature of advanced disc degeneration and a prognostic factor for clinical disease. RDIDC scoring has been previously shown to be consistent within scorers; however, strong scorer effect (subjectivity) was also reported. The aim of this study was to estimate the within- and between-scorer agreement (repeatability and reproducibility, respectively) of computed tomography (CT) scanning and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) for scoring IVD calcification, and to compare these modalities with radiographic scoring.ResultsTwenty-one Dachshund dogs were screened for IVD calcification using the three imaging modalities. Three scorers scored each case twice, independently. Repeatability was highest for radiography (95.4%), and significantly higher than for CT (90.4%) but not MRI (93.8%). Reproducibility was also highest for radiography (92.9%), but not significantly higher than for CT or MRI (89.4% and 86.4%, respectively). Overall, CT scored IVDs differently than radiography and MRI (64.8% and 62.7% agreement, respectively), while radiography and MRI scored more similarly (85.7% agreement).ConclusionsDespite high precision for radiography, previous evidence of scorer subjectivity was confirmed, which was not generally observed with CT and MRI. The increased consistency of radiography may be related to prior scorer experience with the modality and RDIDC scoring. This study does not support replacing radiography with CT or MRI to screen for heritable IVD calcification in breeding Dachshunds; however, evaluation of dog-level precision and the accuracy of each modality is recommended.Peer reviewe

By the People: Hard Times, Hard Choices Michigan Residents Deliberate

Outlines the concept of deliberative polling and presents results from a face-to-face statewide deliberative poll on Michigan's economy and budget issues, including taxes, spending and benefits, the environment, and options for state assistance.For the first time, a scientific random sample of the people of Michigan gathered together to deliberate about the hard choices facing the state's economic future. Results of Michigan's first Deliberative Poll show what the people of the state would think if they could all become more informed and discuss the issues in depth. Highly representative in both attitudes and demographics, a sample of 314 participants deliberated for a long weekend in Lansing, with both small group discussions and questions answered by competing experts in plenary sessions. The resulting changes of opinion in the final survey offer some dramatic recommendations for both policymakers and the public

Individual variation in patterns of task focused, and detailed, thought are uniquely associated within the architecture of the medial temporal lobe

Understanding the neural processes that support different patterns of ongoing thought is an important goal of contemporary cognitive neuroscience. Early accounts assumed the default mode network (DMN) was especially important for conscious attention to task-irrelevant/personally relevant material. However, simple task-negative accounts of the DMN are incompatible with more recent evidence that neural patterns within the system can be related to ongoing processing during active task states. To better characterize the contribution of the DMN to ongoing thought, we conducted a cross-sectional analysis of the relationship between the structural organisation of the brain, as indexed by cortical thickness, and patterns of experience, identified using experience sampling in the cognitive laboratory. In a sample of 181 healthy individuals (mean age 20 years, 117 females) we identified an association between cortical thickness in the anterior parahippocampus and patterns of task focused thought, as well as an adjacent posterior region in which cortical thickness was associated with experiences with higher levels of subjective detail. Both regions fell within regions of medial temporal lobe associated with the DMN, yet varied in their functional connectivity: the time series of signals in the ‘on-task’ region were more correlated with systems important for external task-relevant processing (as determined by meta-analysis) including the dorsal and ventral attention, and fronto-parietal networks. In contrast, connectivity within the region linked to subjective ‘detail’ was more correlated with the medial core of the DMN (posterior cingulate and the medial pre-frontal cortex) and regions of primary visual cortex. These results provide cross-sectional evidence that confirms a role of the DMN in how detailed experiences are and so provide further evidence that the role of this system in experience is not simply task-irrelevant. Our results also highlight processes within the medial temporal lobe, and their interactions with other regions of cortex as important in determining multiple aspects of how human cognition unfolds

The management of municipal solid waste in Hong Kong : a study of civic engagement strategies

published_or_final_versionPolitics and Public AdministrationMasterMaster of Public Administratio

Social Network Characteristics and Salivary Cortisol in Healthy Older People

Psychobiological research on aging in humans has been confounded by individual differences that have not been adequately characterized in the literature. This paper is an attempt to shed light on this issue by examining the impact of social network characteristics predictive of successful aging on salivary cortisol among 78 older Chinese people in Hong Kong. Eight salivary cortisol samples were collected each day for two consecutive days from immediately after awakening to 12 hours later. Two components of the cortisol diurnal cycle, response to awakening and diurnal decline, were examined in relation to social network characteristics including size, emotional support, and cultivation. ANOVAs with repeated measured were run to examine influences of the three social network characteristics on the cortisol awakening response and diurnal decline, with the effects of gender, age, socioeconomic status, and waking time controlled. Results indicated that those who spent more time and effort in developing and strengthening their social ties (i.e., those high in “cultivation”) exhibited a significantly greater rise in cortisol in the morning and a significantly steeper decline over the day, thus attesting to more effective activation and deactivation of the HPA axis. Network cultivation reflected a positive motivation to nurture social relationships more than the other two network characteristics. Its effect on cortisol might stem from the positivity underlying the motivation

Structure Determination and Biochemical Characterization of a Putative HNH Endonuclease from Geobacter metallireducens GS-15

The crystal structure of a putative HNH endonuclease, Gmet_0936 protein from Geobacter metallireducens GS-15, has been determined at 2.6 Å resolution using single-wavelength anomalous dispersion method. The structure contains a two-stranded anti-parallel β-sheet that are surrounded by two helices on each face, and reveals a Zn ion bound in each monomer, coordinated by residues Cys38, Cys41, Cys73, and Cys76, which likely plays an important structural role in stabilizing the overall conformation. Structural homologs of Gmet_0936 include Hpy99I endonuclease, phage T4 endonuclease VII, and other HNH endonucleases, with these enzymes sharing 15–20% amino acid sequence identity. An overlay of Gmet_0936 and Hpy99I structures shows that most of the secondary structure elements, catalytic residues as well as the zinc binding site (zinc ribbon) are conserved. However, Gmet_0936 lacks the N-terminal domain of Hpy99I, which mediates DNA binding as well as dimerization. Purified Gmet_0936 forms dimers in solution and a dimer of the protein is observed in the crystal, but with a different mode of dimerization as compared to Hpy99I. Gmet_0936 and its N77H variant show a weak DNA binding activity in a DNA mobility shift assay and a weak Mn2+-dependent nicking activity on supercoiled plasmids in low pH buffers. The preferred substrate appears to be acid and heat-treated DNA with AP sites, suggesting Gmet_0936 may be a DNA repair enzyme

Deliberation for Development: Ghana’s First Deliberative Poll

This article poses the problem of public consultation in developing countries and applies a solution in Ghana as a test case. It describes the theoretical rationale for deliberative consultation with random samples, describes specific criteria for success, and then assesses an application under the challenging conditions of a developing country. It builds on notions of “deliberative democracy,” and shows how they can be practically realized in an African context through “Deliberative Polling” (DP). The challenge is that the context is one of the poorest parts of one of the poorest countries in Africa. Rather than consulting just stakeholders, or self-selected populations, or using conventional surveys, DP’s have the advantage of consulting random samples with deliberation in depth in confidential surveys so that the opinion changes can be evaluated at the individual level, free of social pressures for consensus. Is this practical in this context? A DP was conducted in Tamale, Ghana on issues of water, sanitation, hygiene and food security. Criteria for success for DPs that have been applied in highly developed countries are discussed and then applied in Ghana under challenging conditions