Inter-party vote movements in Turkey between 1999 and 2002: A statistical analysis using cross-provincial election data

In the 2002 Turkish parliamentary election, more than half of the voters cast their ballots for a party different than the one they chose in 1999. The outcomes of these elections are analyzed at the provincial level, through a system of regression equations. The results obtained indicate that votes moved from the Virtue, Nationalist Action, Motherland and True Path parties to the Justice and Development Party, from the Democratic Left Party to the Republican People’s and Young parties, and from the Democratic Left, Nationalist Action and Motherland parties to the True Path Party. The Justice and Development Party, the ruling party since 2002, is found to have captured all of the far-right Islamist, about half of the far-right nationalist, and half of the center-right votes.Elections; Voter behavior; Party preference; Turkey

Turkish voter response to government incompetence and corruption related to the 1999 earthquakes

The two major earthquakes which struck northwestern Turkey in 1999, caused enormous amounts of death and destruction, and exposed rampant government corruption involving construction and zoning code violations, as a factor magnifying the disaster. The opposition parties and one of the incumbent parties which participated in previous national governments and held power in current and past municipal administrations were responsible for that. The other two incumbent parties came to power only a short time before the earthquakes and controlled almost none of the local administrations in the disaster zone. They on the other hand, were responsible for the incompetence shown in providing relief, for involvement in corruption related to those efforts, and for failing to prosecute the businessmen who constructed the shoddy buildings and the corrupt officials who permitted them. How voters responded to these in the 2002 parliamentary elections is investigated, using cross-provincial data, controlling for other social, political and economic factors. The fact that different groups of parties were responsible for different types of corruption and mismanagement provided us with a unique data to differentiate between voter responses to corruption and incompetence, and to corruption which has occurred before and after the earthquakes. Our results show that voters punished all of the political parties which participated in governments during the previous decade. The party in charge of the ministry responsible for disaster relief, and parties that controlled more of the city administrations in the quake zone were blamed more. The newly formed Justice and Development Party (AKP) was the main beneficiary of the votes lost by these parties. Our results corroborate the view in the corruption literature that voters react drastically only when the corruption is massive, the information on it highly-credible and well-publicized, involves large number of political parties, not accompanied by competent governance, and a non-corrupt alternative is available.

Turkish Voter Response to Government Incompetence and Corruption Related to the 1999 Earthquakes

The two major earthquakes which struck northwestern Turkey in 1999, caused enormous amounts of death and destruction, and exposed rampant government corruption involving construction and zoning code violations, as a factor magnifying the disaster. The opposition parties and one of the incumbent parties which participated in previous national governments and held power in current and past municipal administrations were responsible for that. The other two incumbent parties came to power only a short time before the earthquakes and controlled almost none of the local administrations in the disaster zone. They on the other hand, were responsible for the incompetence shown in providing relief, for involvement in corruption related to those efforts, and for failing to prosecute the businessmen who constructed the shoddy buildings and the corrupt officials who permitted them. How voters responded to these in the 2002 parliamentary elections is investigated, using cross-provincial data, controlling for other social, political and economic factors. The fact that different groups of parties were responsible for different types of corruption and mismanagement provided us with a unique data to differentiate between voter responses to corruption and incompetence, and to corruption which has occurred before and after the earthquakes. Our results show that voters punished all of the political parties which participated in governments during the previous decade. The party in charge of the ministry responsible for disaster relief, and parties that controlled more of the city administrations in the quake zone were blamed more. The newly formed Justice and Development Party (AKP) was the main beneficiary of the votes lost by these parties. Our results corroborate the view in the corruption literature that voters react drastically only when the corruption is massive, the information on it highly-credible and well-publicized, involves large number of political parties, not accompanied by competent governance, and a non-corrupt alternative is available.Turkey; Natural disaster; Earthquake; Corruption; Government performance; Elections; Voter behavior; Party preference

Impact of the 1999 Earthquakes on the Outcome of the 2002 Parliamentary Election in Turkey

The two major earthquakes which struck northwestern Turkey in 1999, not only caused enormous amounts of death, destruction and suffering, but also exposed rampant government corruption involving construction and zoning code violations. The incompetence shown by the government in providing relief, the corruption allegations in regards to those efforts, and government’s failure to prosecute corrupt officials and businessmen, further angered the public. How voters responded to these in the 2002 parliamentary election is investigated, using cross-provincial data, and controlling for other social, political and economic factors. Our results show that voters held accountable all of the political parties which participated in governments during the last decade or so, and not just the incumbents in 2002. The party in charge of the ministry responsible for earthquake relief, and parties that served longest and controlled more of the city administrations in the quake zone were blamed more. The newly formed Justice and Development Party (AKP) was the beneficiary of the votes lost by these parties. The sensitivity shown by the electorate to real and perceived corruption implies that corruption problem will be tractable in Turkey, and can be reduced through increased transparency and democratization.Turkey, earthquake, corruption, election, party preference

Turkish voter response to government incompetence and corruption related to the 1999 earthquakes

The two major earthquakes which struck northwestern Turkey in 1999, caused enormous amounts of death and destruction, and exposed rampant government corruption involving construction and zoning code violations, as a factor magnifying the disaster. The opposition parties and one of the incumbent parties which participated in previous national governments and held power in current and past municipal administrations were responsible for that. The other two incumbent parties came to power only a short time before the earthquakes and controlled almost none of the local administrations in the disaster zone. They on the other hand, were responsible for the incompetence shown in providing relief, for involvement in corruption related to those efforts, and for failing to prosecute the businessmen who constructed the shoddy buildings and the corrupt officials who permitted them. How voters responded to these in the 2002 parliamentary elections is investigated, using cross-provincial data, controlling for other social, political and economic factors. The fact that different groups of parties were responsible for different types of corruption and mismanagement provided us with a unique data to differentiate between voter responses to corruption and incompetence, and to corruption which has occurred before and after the earthquakes. Our results show that voters punished all of the political parties which participated in governments during the previous decade. The party in charge of the ministry responsible for disaster relief, and parties that controlled more of the city administrations in the quake zone were blamed more. The newly formed Justice and Development Party (AKP) was the main beneficiary of the votes lost by these parties. Our results corroborate the view in the corruption literature that voters react drastically only when the corruption is massive, the information on it highly-credible and well-publicized, involves large number of political parties, not accompanied by competent governance, and a non-corrupt alternative is available.Turkey; Natural disaster; Earthquake; Corruption; Government performance; Elections; Voter behavior; Party preference

Economic Performance and Political Outcomes: An Analysis of the 1995 Turkish Parliamentary Election Results

1995 Turkish parliamentary election was held almost under the conditions of a controlled experiment. The unique cross-section data pertaining to this election and the economic and political conditions surrounding it were utilized to study the relationship between the government’s economic performance and the vote shares of political parties. Turkish voters are found to be myopic, not looking back beyond the election year in assessing the government’s economic performance. A good performance is found to benefit the primary incumbent party at the expense of extremist opposition parties and a bad performance is found to benefit extremist opposition parties at the expense of the primary party in power. The junior party in a coalition government and the centrist opposition parties appear to be unaffected by the economic conditions. Evidence found is consistent with a strategic voting by the electorate, to diffuse power and/or to try parties and leaders that were not tried before or last tried a long time ago. These conclusions are essentially in conformity with the literature on other countries.Turkey, election

Ten million new Turkish voters in 2011 : where they come from? How they voted? What it means for the future?

Between 2007 and 2011 the number of registered voters in Turkey increased by more than ten million, partially due to population increase but mainly due to a change in the voter registration system. Together with nearly three million DP and GP supporters who deserted their parties, the new voters constituted about a quarter of the electorate who participated in the 2011 election. Through descriptive statistics at national, regional and provincial levels, the geographical, demographic, socio-economic and political characteristics of these voters are explored. Then through systems of party vote equations, estimated separately for different regions of the country, how they voted is investigated. The BDP was the main beneficiary of the rise in the registered voters, which were disproportionately located in the Central-east and South-east. This occurred at the expense of the ruling AKP. The DP and GP votes, which were concentrated in the western and central parts of the country, and the new voters in these regions moved mainly to the AKP and CHP. In central provinces, the MHP captured a slice of the new voters and former DP supporters too, but it lost a portion of its own supporters to the CHP in the West.peer-reviewe

Inter-Election Vote Swings for the Turkish Ruling Party: The Impact of Economic Performance and Other Factors

Inter-election vote swings for the AKP, the incumbent party inTurkey, during 2002, 2004, 2007, 2009 and 2011 elections are decomposed into parts attributable to economic conditions, strategic voting, cost of ruling, incumbency advantage, political realignment and other factors.  For this purpose a vote equation, fitted to data covering twenty-seven National Assembly, Senate, and Provincial Council elections, held between 1950 and 2011 is used.  The results show the pivotal role played by the economy on the political fortunes of incumbent parties

Inter-party vote movements in Turkey between 1999 and 2002: A statistical analysis using cross-provincial election data

In the 2002 Turkish parliamentary election, more than half of the voters cast their ballots for a party different than the one they chose in 1999. The outcomes of these elections are analyzed at the provincial level, through a system of regression equations. The results obtained indicate that votes moved from the Virtue, Nationalist Action, Motherland and True Path parties to the Justice and Development Party, from the Democratic Left Party to the Republican People’s and Young parties, and from the Democratic Left, Nationalist Action and Motherland parties to the True Path Party. The Justice and Development Party, the ruling party since 2002, is found to have captured all of the far-right Islamist, about half of the far-right nationalist, and half of the center-right votes

Analysis of the 2009 Turkish election results from an economic voting perspective

The outcome of the 29 March 2009 Turkish local administrations election is analyzed in light of economic voting literature, both from historical and geographical perspectives. First, the nationwide vote share of the incumbent party (AKP) is compared to what would be expected based on the patterns observed in the past twenty-six National Assembly, Senate, and Provincial Council elections held between 1951 and 2007. For this purpose a vote equation is estimated using aggregate nationwide time-series data. This equation takes into account the roles played by economic conditions, political inertia, incumbency factors, strategic voting by the electorate, and the political realignments. Second, inter-party vote movements between the 2007 parliamentary and the 2009 local administrations elections are analyzed, through systems of party vote equations, estimated separately for different regions of the country, using cross-provincial data. The results obtained show that the outcome of the 2009 election was predictable on the basis of historical patterns. The vote loses of the AKP is attributable mainly to two transitory factors: poor economic conditions prevailing at the time of the election and typical strategicvoting experienced in local elections. The party’s vote losses tended to be higher in the east than in the west and in provinces where its support is high than where it is low. The voters who deserted the AKP went to the DP, SP and DTP, in the mid-eastern and south-eastern Anatolia, and to the MHP and SP, in the rest of the country.peer-reviewe