A Hybrid Model of Machine Learning Model and Econometrics’ Model to Predict Volatility of KSE-100 Index

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to predict the volatility of the KSE-100 index using econometric and machine learning models. It also designs hybrid models for volatility forecasting by combining these two models in three different ways. Methodology: Estimations and forecasting are based on an econometric model GARCH (Generalized Auto Regressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity) and a machine learning model NNAR (Neural Network Auto-Regressive model). The hybrid models designed with GARCH and NNAR include GARCH-based NNAR, NNAR-based GARCH, and the linear combination of GARCH and NNAR. Findings: In a comparison of the forecasting results of the KSE-100 index over different periods, the least RMSE is found in a linear combination of NNAR and GARCH, followed by NNAR, GARCH, NNAR based GARCH, and GARCH based NNAR models. Conclusion: The study concludes that the hybrid model designed with a linear combination of GARCH and NNAR performs better among all the models in forecasting the volatility of the KSE-100 index

Perception of Medical students regarding lectures

Objective: To assess the interest of medical students in lectures.Methodology: This prospective study was conducted in four different medical colleges of Pakistan from 1st January till 30th March 2015. Total of 600 students were included in this study. Data collection procedure used was questionnaire which contained both open and close ended questions. Written consent was taken from all the participants & permission was taken from the ethical review board of college. SPSS 15 was used to analyze the data.Results: Almost 59% of students in our study consider the lecture as uninteresting tool in medical studies and only 46% consider lecture as essential part of their education during the college timings. Good part of our study is majority of the students managed to reach lecture in time. 77.25% students consider use multimedia helpful during lectures.Conclusion: According to our study, students consider lecture as not very important and uninteresting part of medical education

Perception of Medical students regarding lectures

Objective: To assess the interest of medical students in lectures.Methodology: This prospective study was conducted in four different medical colleges of Pakistan from 1st January till 30th March 2015. Total of 600 students were included in this study. Data collection procedure used was questionnaire which contained both open and close ended questions. Written consent was taken from all the participants & permission was taken from the ethical review board of college. SPSS 15 was used to analyze the data.Results: Almost 59% of students in our study consider the lecture as uninteresting tool in medical studies and only 46% consider lecture as essential part of their education during the college timings. Good part of our study is majority of the students managed to reach lecture in time. 77.25% students consider use multimedia helpful during lectures.Conclusion: According to our study, students consider lecture as not very important and uninteresting part of medical education

An Optimized Queue Management System to Improve Patient Flow in the Absence of Appointment System

PURPOSE: The aim of this research study is to develop a queue assessment model to evaluate the inflow of walk-in outpatients in a busy public hospital of an emerging economy, in the absence of appointment systems, and construct a dynamic framework dedicated towards the practical implementation of the proposed model, for continuous monitoring of the queue system. DESIGN/METHODOLOGY/APPROACH: The current study utilizes data envelopment analysis (DEA) to develop a combined queuing-DEA model as applied to evaluate the wait times of patients, within different stages of the outpatients' department at the Combined Military Hospital (CMH) in Lahore, Pakistan, over a period of seven weeks (23rd April to 28th May 2014). The number of doctors/personnel and consultation time were considered as outputs, where consultation time was the non-discretionary output. The two inputs were wait time and length of queue. Additionally, VBA programming in Excel has been utilized to develop the dynamic framework for continuous queue monitoring. FINDINGS: The inadequate availability of personnel was observed as the critical issue for long wait times, along with overcrowding and variable arrival pattern of walk-in patients. The DEA model displayed the "required" number of personnel, corresponding to different wait times, indicating queue build-up. ORIGINALITY/VALUE: The current study develops a queue evaluation model for a busy outpatients' department in a public hospital, where "all" patients are walk-in and no appointment systems. This model provides vital information in the form of "required" number of personnel which allows the administrators to control the queue pre-emptively minimizing wait times, with optimal yet dynamic staff allocation. Additionally, the dynamic framework specifically targets practical implementation in resource-poor public hospitals of emerging economies for continuous queue monitoring

Prevalence of Postpartum Depression and its Risk Factors among Pakistani Females:

Background: A severe form of clinical depression is related to pregnancy and childbirth. As a new mom, a lot of challenges are encountered in getting used to life with a newborn including lack of sleep. Hormonal changes and fatigue may lead towards psychological maladjustment towards motherhood. Low socioeconomic status, family system, mode of delivery, ill health of infant may be the reasons behind postpartum depression. Objective: To study the prevalence of postpartum depression among females. Method: This Cross sectional study was conducted after ethical approval on a sample of 200 females of reproductive age (20-45years). Participants were selected through convenient random sampling on the basis of predefined eligibility criteria. Data were collected from primary and secondary healthcare facilities of district Sialkot using Edinburg postnatal depression screening tool. Results: The mean age±Std Dev of the participants was 28.09±5.346 years ranging from 20 to 45. Mean±SD of total score EPDS was found 3.53±5.72 with 87.50% participants with score below 13. Out of 200, 25(12.50%) females were candidates for postpartum depression. Conclusion: Postpartum depression screening helps recognition of the disorder. Postpartum depression among females of the target population is not negligible

Preventable lifestyle risk factors for non-communicable diseases in the Pakistan Adolescents Schools Study 1 (PASS-1).

Objectives: The rising burden of preventable risk factors for non-communicable diseases (NCDs) among adolescents is a major public health challenge worldwide. We identified the preventable risk factors for NCDs in adolescents. Methods: In a school-based study, pre-tested structured questionnaires were completed by 414 adolescents (14 to 17 years) at six schools in three cities in Pakistan. The chi-squared test and adjusted odds ratio (aOR) with 95% confidence interval (CI) were calculated in a multinomial logistic regression analysis. Results: Over 80% of the adolescents had unhealthy diets, and 54% were physically inactive. Most adolescents were exposed to passive smoking, and 14% were also current smokers. More than one-third of participants chewed betel nut, and one-quarter used oral tobacco. More girls were physically inactive (OR, 4.07; 95% CI, 2.69 to 6.17), whereas a greater proportion of boys were current smokers (OR, 2.17; 95% CI, 1.19 to 3.91), exposed to passive smoking (OR, 2.57; 95% CI, 1.72 to 3.83), and using betel nut (OR, 2.03; 95% CI, 1.34 to 3.06). Only 3.1% of the participants were without any preventable lifestyle risk factor for NCDs, and over 80% had ≥2 factors. Co-existence of risk factors was independently associated with fathers being blue-collar workers (aOR, 3.57; 95% CI, 1.07 to 11.92) and parents not treating their child fairly (aOR, 5.05; 95% CI, 1.29 to 19.78). Conclusions: Most of the adolescents studied had preventable risk factors for NCDs. These results warrant comprehensive and integrated interventions to prevent lifestyle risk factors, and parents are front-line stakeholders

A technical assessment on photovoltaic power generation under varying weather profile – Northumbria university pilot

The output from Photovoltaic (PV) system’s is mostly dependent on the weather of the area in which it is installed and it is greatly influenced by the amount of sunlight, irradiance intensity and the time of day (sunny or daylight hours). Consequently, climate in the United Kingdom (UK) does not allow the production of consistent power throughout the year. This paper discusses and analyses the realistic weather data in the UK to provide the accurate climate factor for solar energy production. The present study aims to help decision-makers take reasonable steps to provide solar energy production solutions while considering the weather benefits and as well as abnormalities. This paper tends to provide a comparative analysis of actual and theoretical performance conducted over a one-year monitoring cycle. The paper starts with an overview of performance co-efficient followed by the details of energy produced during various weather periods to investigate the reliability of depending solely on solar. A 75% decline in winter output relative to the summer and an energy generation of only 1.8% on the darkest day of the year compared to the brightest day are reported

A Hybrid Model of Machine Learning Model and Econometrics’ Model to Predict Volatility of KSE-100 Index

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to predict the volatility of the KSE-100 index using econometric and machine learning models. It also designs hybrid models for volatility forecasting by combining these two models in three different ways. Methodology: Estimations and forecasting are based on an econometric model GARCH (Generalized Auto Regressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity) and a machine learning model NNAR (Neural Network Auto-Regressive model). The hybrid models designed with GARCH and NNAR include GARCH-based NNAR, NNAR-based GARCH, and the linear combination of GARCH and NNAR. Findings: In a comparison of the forecasting results of the KSE-100 index over different periods, the least RMSE is found in a linear combination of NNAR and GARCH, followed by NNAR, GARCH, NNAR based GARCH, and GARCH based NNAR models. Conclusion: The study concludes that the hybrid model designed with a linear combination of GARCH and NNAR performs better among all the models in forecasting the volatility of the KSE-100 index

Mechanisms of Bioinformatics

The article plans to acquaint computer researchers with the new field of bioinformatics. The article gives a 10,000 foot perspective of the essential ideas in atomic cell science diagrams the way of the current information, tranquilize revelation representation and portrays the sort of PC calculations and systems that are important to comprehend cell conduct. The points secured include: portrayals of the present programming particularly produced for scholars, PC and numerical cell models, and regions of software engineering that assume a critical part in bioinformatics

Role Of Danazole And Primrose Oil In Mastalgia

Objective: This study was conducted to evaluate role of danazole and primrose oil in the treatment of mastalgia.  Study design: It is a prospective type comparative study. Duration and Setting: This study was done in Gynae unit of Bahawal Victoria Hospital Bahawalpur in the duration of six months from July 2017 to December 2017.Patients and Methods: One hundred and forty patients were included in this study which presented in out-patient door of Gynae and obs. These patients presented with the complaint of breast pain.Age of patients ranges from 15-60 years with mean age of 35.8 years. Mostly females with age above 25 years were having this complaint. They were divided into two groups each consisted on 70 cases. Group –A was given Danazole treatment and Group-B was given Primrose oil treatment for breast pain for three months duration and they were called for follow up after 3 months for prognosis. A proforma was designed containing all necessary questions related to patient’s age, duration of complaint,  and any side effect noticed after given treatment was documented for each individual patient. Response of treatment was asked either excellent, good, poor or no response and documented for both groups. Results of both groups were calculated in the form of frequencies and compared with each other and presented in the form of tables and charts. Consent from patients was taken for including them in study and also from medical superintendant for conducting study in the hospital.   Results: There were 140 cases divided into two groups A and B each with 70 cases. Their age range was 15-60 years. There were 25 cases with age 15-20 years, 20 with 21-25 years, 33 with 26-30 years, 28 cases lying in age group of 31-35 years and 18 cases were having age above 40 years. On Follow-up after 3 months each patient was asked about effect of treatment. Twenty eight patients from group-A having treatment with danazol respond excellent to it, 25 showed good response, 10 showed poor response while 7 cases showed no response. From group-B using primrose oil, 21 cases showed excellent response, 30 cases showed good response, 8 cases with poor response while 11 cases showed no response. Various side effects were noted in both groups. From group-A 12.8% and from group-B 15.7% showed side effects.  Conclusion: Mastalgia is a very common problem among female population and it can be treated very effectively using danazol for at least 3 months duration. It has few side effects but overall it is very effective in treating breast pain