A Decision Support System for Land Allocation under Multiple Objectives in Public Production Forests in the Brazilian Amazon

Logging in natural forests is a vital economic activity in the Brazilian Amazon. However, illegal and unplanned logging is exhausting forests rapidly. In 2006, a new forestry law in Brazil (Lei 11,284/2006) established the legal framework to develop state and national public forests for multiple uses. To support public forest planning efforts, we combine spatially explicit data on logging profits, biodiversity, and potential for community use for use within a forest planning optimization model. While generating optimal land use configurations, the model enables an assessment of the market and nonmarket tradeoffs associated with different land use priorities. We demonstrate the model's use for Faro State Forest, a 636,000 ha forest embedded within a large mosaic of conservation units recently established in the state of Pará. The datasets used span the entire Brazilian Amazon, implying that the analysis can be repeated for any public forest planning effort within the region

Evolution of oxygen isotopic composition in the inner solar nebula

Changes in the chemical and isotopic composition of the solar nebula with time are reflected in the properties of different constituents that are preserved in chondritic meteorites. CR carbonaceous chondrites are among the most primitive of all chondrite types and must have preserved solar nebula records largely unchanged. We have analyzed the oxygen and magnesium isotopes in a range of the CR constituents of different formation temperatures and ages, including refractory inclusions and chondrules of various types. The results provide new constraints on the time variation of the oxygen isotopic composition of the inner (<5 AU) solar nebula - the region where refractory inclusions and chondrules most likely formed. A chronology based on the decay of short-lived 26Al (t1/2 ~ 0.73 Ma) indicates that the inner solar nebula gas was 16O-rich when refractory inclusions formed, but less than 0.8 Ma later, gas in the inner solar nebula became 16O-poor and this state persisted at least until CR chondrules formed ~1-2 Myr later. We suggest that the inner solar nebula became 16O-poor because meter-size icy bodies, which were enriched in 17,18O due to isotopic self-shielding during the ultraviolet photo dissociation of CO in the protosolar molecular cloud or protoplanetary disk, agglomerated outside the snowline, drifted rapidly towards the Sun, and evaporated at the snowline. This led to significant enrichment in 16O-depleted water, which then spread through the inner solar system. Astronomical studies of the spatial and/or temporal variations of water abundance in protoplanetary disks may clarify these processes.Comment: 27 pages, 5 figure

Dynamic early identification of hip replacement implants with high revision rates. Study based on the NJR data from UK during 2004-2012

BACKGROUND: Hip replacement and hip resurfacing are common surgical procedures with an estimated risk of revision of 4% over 10 year period. Approximately 58% of hip replacements will last 25 years. Some implants have higher revision rates and early identification of poorly performing hip replacement implant brands and cup/head brand combinations is vital. AIMS: Development of a dynamic monitoring method for the revision rates of hip implants. METHODS: Data on the outcomes following the hip replacement surgery between 2004 and 2012 was obtained from the National Joint Register (NJR) in the UK. A novel dynamic algorithm based on the CUmulative SUM (CUSUM) methodology with adjustment for casemix and random frailty for an operating unit was developed and implemented to monitor the revision rates over time. The Benjamini-Hochberg FDR method was used to adjust for multiple testing of numerous hip replacement implant brands and cup/ head combinations at each time point. RESULTS: Three poorly performing cup brands and two cup/ head brand combinations have been detected. Wright Medical UK Ltd Conserve Plus Resurfacing Cup (cup o), DePuy ASR Resurfacing Cup (cup e), and Endo Plus (UK) Limited EP-Fit Plus Polyethylene cup (cup g) showed stable multiple alarms over the period of a year or longer. An addition of a random frailty term did not change the list of underperforming components. The model with added random effect was more conservative, showing less and more delayed alarms. CONCLUSIONS: Our new algorithm is an efficient method for early detection of poorly performing components in hip replacement surgery. It can also be used for similar tasks of dynamic quality monitoring in healthcare

Eyetracking Metrics in Young Onset Alzheimer’s Disease: A Window into Cognitive Visual Functions

Young onset Alzheimer’s disease (YOAD) is defined as symptom onset before the age of 65 years and is particularly associated with phenotypic heterogeneity. Atypical presentations, such as the clinic-radiological visual syndrome posterior cortical atrophy (PCA), often lead to delays in accurate diagnosis. Eyetracking has been used to demonstrate basic oculomotor impairments in individuals with dementia. In the present study, we aim to explore the relationship between eyetracking metrics and standard tests of visual cognition in individuals with YOAD. Fifty-seven participants were included: 36 individuals with YOAD (n =  26 typical AD; n =  10 PCA) and 21 age-matched healthy controls. Participants completed three eyetracking experiments: fixation, pro-saccade, and smooth pursuit tasks. Summary metrics were used as outcome measures and their predictive value explored looking at correlations with visuoperceptual and visuospatial metrics. Significant correlations between eyetracking metrics and standard visual cognitive estimates are reported. A machine-learning approach using a classification method based on the smooth pursuit raw eyetracking data discriminates with approximately 95% accuracy patients and controls in cross-validation tests. Results suggest that the eyetracking paradigms of a relatively simple and specific nature provide measures not only reflecting basic oculomotor characteristics but also predicting higher order visuospatial and visuoperceptual impairments. Eyetracking measures can represent extremely useful markers during the diagnostic phase and may be exploited as potential outcome measures for clinical trials

ApoE influences regional white-matter axonal density loss in Alzheimer's disease

Mechanisms underlying phenotypic heterogeneity in young onset Alzheimer disease (YOAD) are poorly understood. We used diffusion tensor imaging and neurite orientation dispersion and density imaging (NODDI) with tract-based spatial statistics to investigate apolipoprotein (APOE) ε4 modulation of white-matter damage in 37 patients with YOAD (22, 59% APOE ε4 positive) and 23 age-matched controls. Correlation between neurite density index (NDI) and neuropsychological performance was assessed in 4 white-matter regions of interest. White-matter disruption was more widespread in ε4+ individuals but more focal (posterior predominant) in the absence of an ε4 allele. NODDI metrics indicate fractional anisotropy changes are underpinned by combinations of axonal loss and morphological change. Regional NDI in parieto-occipital white matter correlated with visual object and spatial perception battery performance (right and left, both p = 0.02), and performance (nonverbal) intelligence (WASI matrices, right, p = 0.04). NODDI provides tissue-specific microstructural metrics of white-matter tract damage in YOAD, including NDI which correlates with focal cognitive deficits, and APOEε4 status is associated with different patterns of white-matter neurodegeneration

Protocol for a prospective cohort study of open tibia fractures in Malawi with a nested implementation of open fracture guidelines.

Background: Road traffic injury (RTI) is the largest cause of death amongst 15-39-year-old people worldwide, and the burden of injuries such as open tibia fractures are rapidly increasing in Malawi. This study aims to investigate disability and economic outcomes of people with open tibia fractures in Malawi and improve these with locally delivered implementation of open fracture guidelines. Methods: This is a prospective cohort study describing function, quality of life and economic burden of open tibia fractures in Malawi. In total, 160 participants will be recruited across six centres and will be followed-up with face-to-face interviews at six weeks, three months, six months and one year following injury. The primary outcome will be function at one year measured by the short musculoskeletal functional assessment (SMFA) score. Secondary outcomes will include quality of life measured by EuroQol EQ-5D-3L, catastrophic loss of income and implementation outcomes (acceptability, adoption, appropriateness, costs, feasibility, fidelity, penetration, and sustainability) at one year. A nested pilot pre-post implementation study of an interventional bundle for all open fractures will be developed based on other implementation studies from low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Regression analysis will be used to model and investigate associations between SMFA score and fracture severity, infection and the pre- and post-training course period. Outcome: This prospective cohort study will report patient reported outcomes from open tibia fractures in low-resource settings. Subsequent detailed evaluation of both the clinical and implementation components of the study will promote sustainability of improved open fractures management in the study sites and further scale-up of open fracture management guidelines. Ethics: Ethics approval has been obtained from the Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine and College of Medicine Research and Ethics committee

Risk-adjusted CUSUM control charts for shared frailty survival models with application to hip replacement outcomes: a study using the NJR dataset

Background:  Continuous monitoring of surgical outcomes after joint replacement is needed to detect which brands’ components have a higher than expected failure rate and are therefore no longer recommended to be used in surgical practice. We developed a monitoring method based on cumulative sum (CUSUM) chart specifically for this application.  Methods:  Our method entails the use of the competing risks model with the Weibull and the Gompertz hazard functions adjusted for observed covariates to approximate the baseline time-to-revision and time-to-death distributions, respectively. The correlated shared frailty terms for competing risks, corresponding to the operating unit, are also included in the model. A bootstrap-based boundary adjustment is then required for risk-adjusted CUSUM charts to guarantee a given probability of the false alarm rates. We propose a method to evaluate the CUSUM scores and the adjusted boundary for a survival model with the shared frailty terms. We also introduce a unit performance quality score based on the posterior frailty distribution. This method is illustrated using the 2003-2012 hip replacement data from the UK National Joint Registry (NJR). Results:  We found that the best model included the shared frailty for revision but not for death. This means that the competing risks of revision and death are independent in NJR data. Our method was superior to the standard NJR methodology. For one of the two monitored components, it produced alarms four years before the increased failure rate came to the attention of the UK regulatory authorities. The hazard ratios of revision across the units varied from 0.38 to 2.28. Conclusions:  An earlier detection of failure signal by our method in comparison to the standard method used by the NJR may be explained by proper risk-adjustment and the ability to accommodate time-dependent hazards. The continuous monitoring of hip replacement outcomes should include risk adjustment at both the individual and unit level

Interlocking Transcriptional Feedback Loops Control White-Opaque Switching in Candida albicans

The human pathogen Candida albicans can assume either of two distinct cell types, designated “white” and “opaque.” Each cell type is maintained for many generations; switching between them is rare and stochastic, and occurs without any known changes in the nucleotide sequence of the genome. The two cell types differ dramatically in cell shape, colony appearance, mating competence, and virulence properties. In this work, we investigate the transcriptional circuitry that specifies the two cell types and controls the switching between them. First, we identify two new transcriptional regulators of white-opaque switching, Czf1 and white-opaque regulator 2 (Wor2). Analysis of a large set of double mutants and ectopic expression strains revealed genetic relationships between CZF1, WOR2, and two previously identified regulators of white-opaque switching, WOR1 and EFG1. Using chromatin immunoprecipitation, we show that Wor1 binds the intergenic regions upstream of the genes encoding three additional transcriptional regulators of white-opaque switching (CZF1, EFG1, and WOR2), and also occupies the promoters of numerous white- and opaque-enriched genes. Based on these interactions, we have placed these four genes in a circuit controlling white-opaque switching whose topology is a network of positive feedback loops, with the master regulator gene WOR1 occupying a central position. Our observations indicate that a key role of the interlocking feedback loop network is to stably maintain each epigenetic state through many cell divisions

Tests of model of color reconnection and a search for glueballs using gluon jets with a rapidity gap

Gluon jets with a mean energy of 22 GeV and purity of 95% are selected from hadronic Z0 decay events produced in e+e- annihilations. A subsample of these jets is identified which exhibits a large gap in the rapidity distribution of particles within the jet. After imposing the requirement of a rapidity gap, the gluon jet purity is 86%. These jets are observed to demonstrate a high degree of sensitivity to the presence of color reconnection, i.e. higher order QCD processes affecting the underlying color structure. We use our data to test three QCD models which include a simulation of color reconnection: one in the Ariadne Monte Carlo, one in the Herwig Monte Carlo, and the other by Rathsman in the Pythia Monte Carlo. We find the Rathsman and Ariadne color reconnection models can describe our gluon jet measurements only if very large values are used for the cutoff parameters which serve to terminate the parton showers, and that the description of inclusive Z0 data is significantly degraded in this case. We conclude that color reconnection as implemented by these two models is disfavored. The signal from the Herwig color reconnection model is less clear and we do not obtain a definite conclusion concerning this model. In a separate study, we follow recent theoretical suggestions and search for glueball-like objects in the leading part of the gluon jets. No clear evidence is observed for these objects.Comment: 42 pages, 18 figure

Search for Yukawa Production of a Light Neutral Higgs Boson at LEP

Within a Two-Higgs-Doublet Model (2HDM) a search for a light Higgs boson in the mass range of 4-12 GeV has been performed in the Yukawa process e+e- -> b bbar A/h -> b bbar tau+tau-, using the data collected by the OPAL detector at LEP between 1992 and 1995 in e+e- collisions at about 91 GeV centre-of-mass energy. A likelihood selection is applied to separate background and signal. The number of observed events is in good agreement with the expected background. Within a CP-conserving 2HDM type II model the cross-section for Yukawa production depends on xiAd = |tan beta| and xihd = |sin alpha/cos beta| for the production of the CP-odd A and the CP-even h, respectively, where tan beta is the ratio of the vacuum expectation values of the Higgs doublets and alpha is the mixing angle between the neutral CP-even Higgs bosons. From our data 95% C.L. upper limits are derived for xiAd within the range of 8.5 to 13.6 and for xihd between 8.2 to 13.7, depending on the mass of the Higgs boson, assuming a branching fraction into tau+tau- of 100%. An interpretation of the limits within a 2HDM type II model with Standard Model particle content is given. These results impose constraints on several models that have been proposed to explain the recent BNL measurement of the muon anomalous magnetic moment.Comment: 24 pages, 9 figures, Submitted to Euro. Phys. J.