Regional house price cycles in the UK, 1978-2012: a Markov switching VAR

There is an extensive literature on UK regional house price dynamics, yet empirical work focusing on the duration and magnitude of regional housing cycles has received little attention. This paper employs Markov Switching Vector auto regression (MSVAR) methods to examine UK house price cycles in UK regions at NUTS1 level. The research findings indicate that the regional structure of the UK house market is best described as two large groups of regions with marked differences in the amplitude and duration of the cyclical regimes between the two groups. These differences have implications for the design of both macroeconomic and housing sector policies

Patient Controlled, Privacy Preserving IoT Healthcare Data Sharing Framework

Healthcare data personally collected by individuals with wearable devices have become important sources of information for healthcare professionals and medical research worldwide. User-Generated Data (UGD) offers unique and sometimes fine-grained insight into the lived experiences and medical conditions of patients. The sensitive subject-matter of medical data can facilitate the exploitation and/or control of victims. Data collection in medical research therefore restricts access control over participant-data to the researchers. Therefore, cultivating trust with prospective participants concerned about the security of their medical data presents formidable challenges. Anonymization can allay such concerns, but at the cost of information loss. Moreover, such techniques cannot necessarily be applied on real-time streaming health data. In this paper, we aim to analyze the technical requirements to enable individuals to share their real-time wearable healthcare data with researchers without compromising privacy. An extension for delay-free anonymization techniques for real-time streaming health data is also proposed

Active learning-driven uncertainty reduction for in-flight particle characteristics of atmospheric plasma spraying of silicon

In this study, the first-of-its-kind use of active learning (AL) framework in thermal spray is adapted to improve the prediction accuracy of the in-flight particle characteristics and uses Gaussian Process (GP) ML model as a surrogate that generalises a global solution without necessarily involving physical mechanisms. The AL framework via the Bayesian Optimisation was utilised to: (a) reduce the maximum uncertainty in the given database and (b) reduce local uncertainty around a contrived test point. The initial dataset consists of 26 atmospheric plasma spray (APS) parameters of silicon, aimed at ceramic matrix composites (CMCs) for the next generation of aerospace applications. The maximum uncertainty in the initial dataset was reduced by AL-driven identification of search spaces and conducting six guided spray trails in the identified search spaces. On average, a 52.9% improvement (error reduction) of RMSE and an R2 increase of 8.5% were reported on the predicted in-flight particle velocities and temperatures after the AL-driven optimisation. Furthermore, the Bayesian Optimisation around a contrived test point to predict the best possible characteristics resulted in a three-fold increase in prediction accuracy as compared to the non-optimised prediction. These AL-guided experimental validations not only increase the informativeness of the limited dataset but is adaptable for other thermal spraying methods without necessarily involving physical mechanisms and underlying mechanisms. The use of AL-driven optimisation may drive the thermal spraying towards resource-efficiency and may serve as the first step towards fully digital thermal spraying environments

The I/O Complexity of Computing Prime Tables

International audienceWe revisit classical sieves for computing primes and analyze their performance in the external-memory model. Most prior sieves are analyzed in the RAM model, where the focus is on minimizing both the total number of operations and the size of the working set. The hope is that if the working set fits in RAM, then the sieve will have good I/O performance, though such an outcome is by no means guaranteed by a small working-set size. We analyze our algorithms directly in terms of I/Os and operations. In the external-memory model, permutation can be the most expensive aspect of sieving, in contrast to the RAM model, where permutations are trivial. We show how to implement classical sieves so that they have both good I/O performance and good RAM performance, even when the problem size N becomes huge—even superpolynomially larger than RAM. Towards this goal, we give two I/O-efficient priority queues that are optimized for the operations incurred by these sieves

Enabling data linkage to maximise the value of public health research data: Summary report

Summary for the Wellcome Trust report on Enabling Data Linkage, including example case studies, key findings, and recommendation

Linking cohort data with administrative health data to develop a new hypertension prediction model to aid precision health approach

Introduction Hypertension is a common medical condition, affecting 1 in 5 Canadians, and is a major risk factor for heart attack, stroke, and kidney disease. Predicting the risk of developing incident hypertension may help to inform targeted preventive strategies. Objectives and Approach Identification of major risk factors and incorporation into a multivariable model for risk stratification may help to identify individuals who are at highest risk for developing incident hypertension and would potentially benefit most from intervention. The goal of the proposed research is to develop a robust hypertension prediction model for the general population using the Alberta Tomorrow Project (ATP) cohort data linked with Alberta’s administrative health data. ATP is Alberta's largest population health cohort, contains baseline data on socio-demographic characteristic, personal and family history of disease, medication use, lifestyle and health behavior, environmental exposures, physical measures and bio samples. Results Alberta’s administrative health data additionally provides information on health care utilization, enrollment, drugs, physician services, and hospital services. A prediction model for hypertension will be developed using logistic regression where information on candidate variables for the model will be gathered from ATP data and outcome (incident hypertension) will be ascertained from administrative health data (physicians/practitioner claim data and hospital discharge abstract data). Lacking follow-up information in current ATP data has laid the foundation of linking the two data sources through an anonymous unique person identifier (e.g. PHN) that will eventually provide follow-up information on ATP participants who are free of hypertension at baseline developed the disease as well as information on other potential variables. Conclusion/Implications The proposed prediction model will help to identify individuals at highest risk for developing hypertension and those who may benefit most from targeted healthy behavioral interventions and/or treatment. Such identification of high risk people may help prevent hypertension as well as the continuing costly cycle of managing hypertension and its complications

Extensive crustal extraction in Earth’s early history inferred from molybdenum isotopes

Estimates of the volume of the earliest crust based on zircon ages and radiogenic isotopes remain equivocal. Stable isotope systems, such as molybdenum, have the potential to provide further constraints but remain underused due to the lack of complementarity between mantle and crustal reservoirs. Here we present molybdenum isotope data for Archaean komatiites and Phanerozoic komatiites and picrites and demonstrate that their mantle sources all possess subchondritic signatures complementary to the superchondritic continental crust. These results confirm that the present-day degree of mantle depletion was achieved by 3.5 billion years ago and that Earth has been in a steady state with respect to molybdenum recycling. Mass balance modelling shows that this early mantle depletion requires the extraction of a far greater volume of mafic-dominated protocrust than previously thought, more than twice the volume of the continental crust today, implying rapid crustal growth and destruction in the first billion years of Earth’s history

Active learning-driven uncertainty reduction for in-flight particle characteristics of atmospheric plasma spraying of silicon

The first-of-its-kind use of the active learning (AL) framework in thermal spray is adapted to enhance the prediction accuracy of the in-flight particle characteristics. The successful AL framework implementation via Bayesian Optimisation is beneficial in, first, reducing the maximum uncertainty, which greatly improves the prediction accuracy and informativeness of the existing database. Second, it reduces local uncertainty around a contrived test point that offers the capability to find improvement in a limited search area, allowing an accurate prediction around a desired test point. The dataset for Machine Learning (ML) training consists of 26 atmospheric plasma spray (APS) parameters of silicon and a further six AL-guided spray runs carried out to reduce maximum uncertainty in the initial database. On average, a 52.9% improvement (error reduction) of RMSE and an R2 increase of 8.5% were reported on the predicted in-flight particle velocities and temperatures after the AL-driven optimisation. Furthermore, the contrived test point optimisation to predict the best possible characteristics in a limited search space resulted in a three-fold increase in prediction accuracy compared to the non-optimised prediction. The AL-driven optimisation proved to be greatly beneficial for resource-intensive thermal spraying, as the framework not only allowed an accurate prediction of the in-flight particle characteristics but also found expected improvement around a desired in-flight characteristic. Furthermore, the framework uses the Gaussian Process (GP) ML model as a surrogate that generalises a global solution without necessarily involving physical and underlying mechanisms, thus extending the framework to other thermal spraying methods