Capital Misallocation during the Great Recession

In this paper I evaluate the contribution of financial frictions in explaining the drop in aggregate TFP through misallocation during the Great Recession. I build a quantitative model with heterogeneous establishments; with the help of the model I compute the counterfactual drop in misallocation: by how much would aggregate TFP have decreased if the credit crunch had been absent. I find that a "real recession" would have caused a drop of only 0.16 percent, as opposed to 1.04 percent found in the data; therefore financial frictions account for a significant part of the drop in aggregate TFP. The key mechanism is the following: the increase in the cost of external finance affects negatively the reallocation of productive inputs from low to high productivity firms, by dampening the growth of small-highly productive firms

Envelope wages, hidden production and labor productivity

We evaluate the relative importance of aggregate labor productivity versus income taxes and social contributions for tax compliance in an economy with a large degree of informality. Empirical evidence points out that tax evasion in Europe happens through partially concealing wages and profits in formally registered enterprises. To this end, we build a model in which employer-employee pairs of heterogeneous productive capacities make joint decisions on the degree of tax evasion. The quantitative model is used to analyze the case of Bulgaria which has the largest informal economy in Europe and underwent a number of important tax reforms over the period 2000–2014, including the introduction of a flat income tax in 2008. The estimation strategy relies on matching the empirical series for the size of the informal economy and other aggregate outcomes for 2000–2014. Our counterfactual experiments show that the most important factor for the changing size of the informal economy is labor productivity, which accounts for more than 75% of the change. The variation in corporate income tax accounts for the rest. We find that the 2008 flat tax reform did not play any visible role in coping with informality

Productivity, Taxation and Evasion: A Quantitative Exploration of the Determinants of the Informal Economy

This paper evaluates the relative importance of labor productivity vs. income taxes and social security contributions for tax compliance in an economy with a large degree of informality. To this end, we build a bargaining model in which matched employer-employee pairs of heterogeneous productive capacities make decisions on output sharing and the degree of tax evasion. The quantitative model takes as inputs the income tax structure and the estimated aggregate productivity series. The estimation strategy recovers the bargaining parameters and the cost function of tax evasion in the model by matching the empirical series for the size of the informal sector (2000-2014). The results from the performed computational experiments point out that the most important factor is labor productivity, followed by the corporate tax. Income tax progressivity in Bulgaria is found not to be quantitatively relevant for tax evasion

Gendered Effects of the Minimum Wage

Women are more likely to work in jobs with low hours than men. Low-hour jobs are associated with lower hourly wages and are more likely impacted by minimum wages that set a floor on hourly wages. We document that the first German minimum wage significantly increased women's transition towards jobs with higher weekly hours. We construct and estimate an equilibrium search model with demographic and firm productivity heterogeneity. The model replicates observed gender gaps in employment, hours and wage and the positive relationship between hours and hourly wages. We implement the minimum wage in our model with a penalty to address non-compliance. Based on our model, the minimum wage primarily reduces the gender income gap through the gender wage gap. At its 2022 level, the German minimum wage reduces the gender employment and hours gap due to an upward reallocation effect, resulting in women's increased participation in higher-hour jobs with lower separation rates. The upward reallocation effect is the strongest for women with children and varies by marital state and spousal income. While the minimum wage only modestly discourages firms from posting jobs, it shifts job offers toward full-time positions

Envelope Wages, Hidden Production and Labor Productivity

We evaluate the relative importance of aggregate labor productivity versus income taxes and social contributions for tax compliance in an economy with a large degree of informality. Empirical evidence points out that tax evasion in Europe happens through partially concealing wages and profits in formally registered enterprises. To this end, we build a model in which employer-employee pairs of heterogeneous productive capacities make joint decisions on the degree of tax evasion. The quantitative model is used to analyze the case of Bulgaria which has the largest informal economy in Europe and underwent a number of important tax reforms over the period 2000-2014, including the introduction of a flat income tax in 2008. The estimation strategy relies on matching the empirical series for the size of the informal economy and other aggregate outcomes for 2000-2014. Our counterfactual experiments show that the most important factor for the changing size of the informal economy is labor productivity, which accounts for more than 75% of the change. The variation in corporate income tax accounts for the rest. We find that the 2008 flat tax reform did not play any visible role in coping with informality

Taxation of Top Incomes and Tax Avoidance

“DP17970 Taxation of Top Incomes and Tax Avoidance”, CEPR Press Discussion Paper No. 17970. https://cepr.org/publications/dp17970This paper studies the aggregate and distributional effects of raising the top marginal income tax rate in the presence of tax avoidance. To this end, we develop a quantitative macroeconomic model with heterogeneous agents and occupational choice in which entrepreneurs can avoid taxes in two ways. On the extensive margin, entrepreneurs can choose the legal form of their business organization to reduce their tax burden. On the intensive margin, entrepreneurs can shift their income between different tax bases. In a quantitative application to the US economy, we find that tax avoidance lowers productive efficiency, generates sizable welfare losses, and reduces the effectiveness of the top marginal tax rate at lowering inequality. Tax avoidance reduces the optimal top marginal income tax rate from 47% to 43%

Teenage childbearing and the welfare state

Teenage childbearing is a common incident in developed countries. However, teenage births are much more likely in the United States than in any other industrialized country. Most of these births are delivered by female teenagers from low-income families. The hypothesis put forward here is that the welfare state (a set of redistributive institutions) has a significant influence on teenage childbearing behavior. We develop an economic theory of parental investments and the risky sexual behavior of teenagers. The model is estimated to fit stylized facts about income inequality, intergenerational mobility, and the sexual behavior of teenagers in the United States. The welfare state institutions are introduced via tax and public education expenditure functions derived from U.S. data. In a quantitative experiment, we impose Norwegian taxes and education spending in the economic environment. The Norwegian welfare state institutions go a long way in explaining the differences in teenage birth rates between the United States and Norway

Direct regulation of microRNA biogenesis and expression by estrogen receptor beta in hormone-responsive breast cancer.

Estrogen effects on mammary epithelial and breast cancer (BC) cells are mediated by the nuclear receptors ERα and ERβ, transcription factors that display functional antagonism with each other, with ERβ acting as oncosuppressor and interfering with the effects of ERα on cell proliferation, tumor promotion and progression. Indeed, hormone-responsive, ERα+ BC cells often lack ERβ, which when present associates with a less aggressive clinical phenotype of the disease. Recent evidences point to a significant role of microRNAs (miRNAs) in BC, where specific miRNA expression profiles associate with distinct clinical and biological phenotypes of the lesion. Considering the possibility that ERβ might influence BC cell behavior via miRNAs, we compared miRNome expression in ERβ+ vs ERβ- hormone-responsive BC cells and found a widespread effect of this ER subtype on the expression pattern of these non-coding RNAs. More importantly, the expression pattern of 67 miRNAs, including 10 regulated by ERβ in BC cells, clearly distinguishes ERβ+, node-negative, from ERβ-, metastatic, mammary tumors. Molecular dissection of miRNA biogenesis revealed multiple mechanisms for direct regulation of this process by ERβ+ in BC cell nuclei. In particular, ERβ downregulates miR-30a by binding to two specific sites proximal to the gene and thereby inhibiting pri-miR synthesis. On the other hand, the receptor promotes miR-23b, -27b and 24-1 accumulation in the cell by binding in close proximity of the corresponding gene cluster and preventing in situ the inhibitory effects of ERα on pri-miR maturation by the p68/DDX5-Drosha microprocessor complex. These results indicate that cell autonomous regulation of miRNA expression is part of the mechanism of action of ERβ in BC cells and could contribute to establishment or maintenance of a less aggressive tumor phenotype mediated by this nuclear receptor

Dupilumab in the treatment of severe uncontrolled chronic rhinosinusitis with nasal polyps (CRSwNP): A multicentric observational Phase IV real-life study (DUPIREAL)

Background Chronic rhinosinusitis with nasal polyps (CRSwNP) is associated with significant morbidity and reduced health-related quality of life. Findings from clinical trials have demonstrated the effectiveness of dupilumab in CRSwNP, although real-world evidence is still limited. Methods This Phase IV real-life, observational, multicenter study assessed the effectiveness and safety of dupilumab in patients with severe uncontrolled CRSwNP (n = 648) over the first year of treatment. We collected data at baseline and after 1, 3, 6, 9, and 12 months of follow-up. We focused on nasal polyps score (NPS), symptoms, and olfactory function. We stratified outcomes by comorbidities, previous surgery, and adherence to intranasal corticosteroids, and examined the success rates based on current guidelines, as well as potential predictors of response at each timepoint. Results We observed a significant decrease in NPS from a median value of 6 (IQR 5–6) at baseline to 1.0 (IQR 0.0–2.0) at 12 months (p < .001), and a significant decrease in Sino-Nasal Outcomes Test-22 (SNOT-22) from a median score of 58 (IQR 49–70) at baseline to 11 (IQR 6–21; p < .001) at 12 months. Sniffin' Sticks scores showed a significant increase over 12 months (p < .001) compared to baseline. The results were unaffected by concomitant diseases, number of previous surgeries, and adherence to topical steroids, except for minor differences in rapidity of action. An excellent-moderate response was observed in 96.9% of patients at 12 months based on EPOS 2020 criteria. Conclusions Our findings from this large-scale real-life study support the effectiveness of dupilumab as an add-on therapy in patients with severe uncontrolled CRSwNP in reducing polyp size and improving the quality of life, severity of symptoms, nasal congestion, and smell