The Burden of Primary Liver Cancer and Underlying Etiologies From 1990 to 2015 at the Global, Regional, and National Level Results From the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

Akinyemiju T, Abera S, Ahmed M, et al. The Burden of Primary Liver Cancer and Underlying Etiologies From 1990 to 2015 at the Global, Regional, and National Level Results From the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015. JAMA ONCOLOGY. 2017;3(12):1683-1691.IMPORTANCE Liver cancer is among the leading causes of cancer deaths globally. The most common causes for liver cancer include hepatitis B virus (HBV) and hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection and alcohol use. OBJECTIVE To report results of the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2015 study on primary liver cancer incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 195 countries or territories from 1990 to 2015, and present global, regional, and national estimates on the burden of liver cancer attributable to HBV, HCV, alcohol, and an " other" group that encompasses residual causes. DESIGN, SETTINGS, AND PARTICIPANTS Mortalitywas estimated using vital registration and cancer registry data in an ensemble modeling approach. Single-cause mortality estimates were adjusted for all-cause mortality. Incidence was derived from mortality estimates and the mortality-to-incidence ratio. Through a systematic literature review, data on the proportions of liver cancer due to HBV, HCV, alcohol, and other causes were identified. Years of life lost were calculated by multiplying each death by a standard life expectancy. Prevalence was estimated using mortality-to-incidence ratio as surrogate for survival. Total prevalence was divided into 4 sequelae that were multiplied by disability weights to derive years lived with disability (YLDs). DALYs were the sum of years of life lost and YLDs. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES Liver cancer mortality, incidence, YLDs, years of life lost, DALYs by etiology, age, sex, country, and year. RESULTS There were 854 000 incident cases of liver cancer and 810 000 deaths globally in 2015, contributing to 20 578 000 DALYs. Cases of incident liver cancer increased by 75% between 1990 and 2015, of which 47% can be explained by changing population age structures, 35% by population growth, and -8% to changing age-specific incidence rates. The male-to-female ratio for age-standardized liver cancer mortality was 2.8. Globally, HBV accounted for 265 000 liver cancer deaths (33%), alcohol for 245 000 (30%), HCV for 167 000 (21%), and other causes for 133 000 (16%) deaths, with substantial variation between countries in the underlying etiologies. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE Liver cancer is among the leading causes of cancer deaths in many countries. Causes of liver cancer differ widely among populations. Our results show that most cases of liver cancer can be prevented through vaccination, antiviral treatment, safe blood transfusion and injection practices, as well as interventions to reduce excessive alcohol use. In line with the Sustainable Development Goals, the identification and elimination of risk factors for liver cancer will be required to achieve a sustained reduction in liver cancer burden. The GBD study can be used to guide these prevention efforts

Dietary Flavonoids and Respiratory Outcomes: Evidence from the BOLD Study

Il peso della broncopneumopatia cronica ostruttiva (BPCO) è cresciuto drammaticamente ed è ora la terza causa di morte, con quasi dieci anni di anticipo rispetto all'anno previsto dall'Organizzazione Mondiale della Sanità (OMS). La BPCO è stata riconosciuta essere un killer silenzioso nei Paesi a basso e medio reddito, dove si verificano 9 decessi su 10 per BPCO. I progressi in campo medico compiuti negli ultimi decenni non sono stati sufficienti e, per ottenere una riduzione significativa dei tassi di incidenza, è necessario un nuovo paradigma incentrato sulla salute pubblica e sugli stili di vita. In linea con questo cambiamento di paradigma, le ultime evidenze indicano che i fattori dietetici, identificati come fattori modificabili, possono influenzare lo sviluppo e la progressione della malattia ostruttiva polmonare. In questa tesi si vuole indagare l'associazione tra l'assunzione di flavonoidi nella dieta e gli esiti respiratori nell'indagine multinazionale Burden of Obstructive Lung Disease (BOLD I). In primo luogo, è stata effettuata un'analisi dei dati per valutare il peso della BPCO nei Paesi a basso e medio reddito nell’Africa Subsahariana (SSA) utilizzando i dati dello studio Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD). La prevalenza della BPCO nei Paesi dell'Africa subsahariana è aumentata costantemente negli ultimi trent'anni e rimane un importante carico per la salute pubblica, con un contributo significativo alla morbosità e alla mortalità prematura in tutta la regione. È stato dimostrato che i flavonoidi hanno molteplici effetti benefici, tra cui un’azione antinfiammatoria, antiossidante, antimicrobica e antinvecchiamento, che svolgono un ruolo importante nei cambiamenti patologici che portano a limitazioni progressive e persistenti del flusso aereo. Stime dell'assunzione di flavonoidi basate sulla popolazione sono presenti solo nei Paesi ad alto reddito, come gli Stati Uniti e alcuni paesi europei. Le stime dell'apporto dietetico basate sulla popolazione dipendono da quali tabelle di composizione degli alimenti (FCT) vengono impiegate e il contenuto di flavonoidi può variare a seconda della FCT utilizzata. Migliorare la nostra comprensione delle variazioni tra le FCT di riferimento utilizzate per stimare l'assunzione di flavonoidi può contribuire a ridurre le incongruenze nelle associazioni tra flavonoidi ed esiti di salute che si possono trovare nella letteratura scientifica. Abbiamo perciò condotto uno studio di confronto per analizzare in che misura il contenuto di flavonoidi degli alimenti inclusi nel Food Frequency Questionnaire (FFQ) di BOLD varia in base alle diverse FCT internazionali. Abbiamo eseguito una ricerca completa delle FCT con dati sui flavonoidi utilizzando motori di ricerca riconosciuti a livello internazionale come risorsa per trovare dati sulla composizione degli alimenti: PubMed Central, i database elettronici Scopus e il motore di ricerca Google. Sono state selezionate quattro FCT con dati comparabili sui flavonoidi e si sono ricavate le stime sui flavonoidi per gli alimenti inclusi nel BOLD FFQ e disponibili in ciascuna tabella; sono stati inoltre effettuati confronti per gli alimenti comuni tra le tabelle. Il contenuto di flavonoidi negli alimenti variava notevolmente tra le tabelle internazionali. E’ stata riscontrata un'elevata eterogeneità nei livelli di stima dei flavonoidi tra le diverse FCT e queste differenze devono essere tenute in considerazione quando si ricavano le stime dell'assunzione di flavonoidi nelle indagini sulla popolazione. Per ottenere l'assunzione giornaliera di flavonoidi totali e delle loro sottoclassi, la tabella di composizione alimentare dei flavonoidi è stata ricavata principalmente dai database dei flavonoidi del Dipartimento dell'Agricoltura degli Stati Uniti (USDA) e ampliata per includere ulteriori sottoclassi di flavonoidi e alimenti da Phenol-Explorer, The Bioactive Substances in Food Information Systems (eBASIS) e The Indian Food Composition Table (IFCT). È stata stimata l'assunzione giornaliera di flavonoidi nella dieta degli adulti partecipanti all'indagine dietetica BOLD I e sono state esaminate le principali fonti alimentari e la loro distribuzione tra i siti BOLD. L'assunzione giornaliera di flavonoidi totali più alta e più bassa è stata riscontrata rispettivamente in Kirghizistan (Chui e Naryn) e a Tirana in Albania. Per analizzare l'associazione tra l'assunzione giornaliera di flavonoidi con la dieta e gli esiti respiratori è stata eseguita una metanalisi in due fasi sui dati individuali dei partecipanti. Il metodo di metanalisi a varianza inversa a effetti casuali stima i dati aggregati specifici del sito nella prima fase e poi, nella seconda fase, produce una stima totale ponderata. La metanalisi ha mostrato che un aumento di 10 mg nell'assunzione giornaliera di flavoni era inversamente associato all'ostruzione cronica delle vie aeree (FEV1 / FV

Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND Regular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations. METHODS The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model-a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates-with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90% of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021 include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality-which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis. For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds. FINDINGS The leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0 deaths (95% UI 89·2-100·0) per 100 000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths [250·1-290·7] per 100 000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1-211·4] per 100 000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4-48·8] per 100 000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3-37·2] per 100 000 population). Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years (6·7-9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021, and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles. INTERPRETATION Long-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic. Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Burden and risk factors of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in Sub-Saharan African countries, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of disease study 2019

Background: Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) has experienced a surge of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) including chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) over the past two decades. Using data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD), in this study we have estimated the burden and attributable risk factors of COPD across SSA countries between 1990 and 2019. Methods: COPD burden and its attributable risk factors were estimated using data from the 2019 GBD. Percentage change was estimated to show the trend of COPD estimates from 1990 to 2019. COPD estimates attributable by risk factors were also reported to ascertain the risk factor that brings the greatest burden by sex and locations (at country and regions level). Findings: In 2019, all-age prevalent cases of COPD in SSA were estimated to be 10.3 million (95% Uncertainty Intervals (UI) 9.7 million to 10.9 million) showing an increase of 117% compared with the number of all-age COPD cases in 1990. From 1990 to 2019, SSA underwent an increased percentage change in all-age YLDs due to COPD ranging from 41% in Lesotho to 203% in Equatorial Guinea. The largest premature mortality due to COPD was reported from Central SSA accounting for 729 subjects (95% UI, 509-1078). The highest rate of DALYs attributable to COPD was observed in Lesotho. Household air pollution from solid fuel was the primary contributor of the age standardized YLDs, death rate, and DALYs rate per 100,000 population. Interpretation: The prevalence of COPD in SSA has had a steady increase over the past three decades and has progressively become a major public health burden across the region. Household air pollution from solid fuel is the primary contributor to COPD related burden, and its percentage contribution showed a similar trend to the reduction of COPD attributed age-standardized DALY rate. The methodological limitations of surveys and datapoints included in the GBD need to be considered when interpreting these associations. Funding: There are no specific fundings received for this study. The Global Burden of Disease study was supported by funding from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Flavonoid Content of Selected Foods \u2013 A Comparison of Four International Composition Tables

This methodological study is part of the Flavonoids and Poor Lung function Study (F-PLUS) and has presented at the NUTRITION 2020 LIVE ONLINE of the American Society for Nutrition (ASN) Congress

Six-minute walk distance in healthy subjects: reference standards from a general population sample

Introduction: The 6-min walking distance (6MWD) test is a useful tool to obtain a measure of functional exercise capacity. However, reference equations have been mainly based on selected populations or small samples. The purpose of this study was to determine the reference equations to predict the 6MWD in a large Italian population sample of healthy adults of a wide age range. Methods: In the frame of the multi case-control population-based study Gene Environment Interaction in Respiratory Diseases (GEIRD), we studied 530 healthy subjects: 287 females ranging 21-76 and 243 males ranging 21-78 years of age. We measured 6MWD, demographic and anthropometric data and collected the reported physical activity. A multiple linear regression model for the 6MWD included age, age2, height, weight and physical activity for both sex equations. The two-way interaction age-height and age-weight and the quadratic terms of weight and height were also tested for inclusion separately in each model. Results: The mean ± SD for 6MWD was 581.4 ± 66.5 m (range 383-800 m) for females and 608.7 ± 80.1 m (range 410-875 m) for males. The reference equations were 6MWD = 8.10*age + 1.61*heightcm-0.99*weightkg + 22.58*active-0.10*age2 + 222.55 for females (R squared = 0.238) and 6MWD = 26.80*age + 8.46*heightcm-0.45*weightkg-2.54*active-0.06*age2-0.13*age*heightcm-890.18 for males (R squared = 0.159), where "active" is 1 when the subject is physically active, 0 otherwise. Conclusion: This study is the first to describe the 6MWD in a large population sample of young, middle aged and elderly healthy Caucasian subjects, and to determine reference equations. These findings will help to improve the evaluation of Italian and European patients with diseases influencing their functional capacity

Correction: Cazzoletti et al. Risk Factors Associated with Nursing Home COVID-19 Outbreaks: A Retrospective Cohort Study. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2021, 18, 8434

The authors would like to make the following corrections to this paper [...]

The burden of primary liver cancer and underlying etiologies from 1990 to 2015 at the global, regional, and national level: Results from the global burden of disease study 2015

Importance: Liver cancer is among the leading causes of cancer deaths globally. The most common causes for liver cancer include hepatitis B virus (HBV) and hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection and alcohol use.Objective: To report results of the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2015 study on primary liver cancer incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 195 countries or territories from 1990 to 2015, and present global, regional, and national estimates on the burden of liver cancer attributable to HBV, HCV, alcohol, and an “other” group that encompasses residual causes.Design, Settings, and Participants: Mortality was estimated using vital registration and cancer registry data in an ensemble modeling approach. Single-cause mortality estimates were adjusted for all-cause mortality. Incidence was derived from mortality estimates and the mortality-to-incidence ratio. Through a systematic literature review, data on the proportions of liver cancer due to HBV, HCV, alcohol, and other causes were identified. Years of life lost were calculated by multiplying each death by a standard life expectancy. Prevalence was estimated using mortality-to-incidence ratio as surrogate for survival. Total prevalence was divided into 4 sequelae that were multiplied by disability weights to derive years lived with disability (YLDs). DALYs were the sum of years of life lost and YLDs.Main Outcomes and Measures: Liver cancer mortality, incidence, YLDs, years of life lost, DALYs by etiology, age, sex, country, and year.Results: There were 854 000 incident cases of liver cancer and 810 000 deaths globally in 2015, contributing to 20 578 000 DALYs. Cases of incident liver cancer increased by 75% between 1990 and 2015, of which 47% can be explained by changing population age structures, 35% by population growth, and −8% to changing age-specific incidence rates. The male-to-female ratio for age-standardized liver cancer mortality was 2.8. Globally, HBV accounted for 265 000 liver cancer deaths (33%), alcohol for 245 000 (30%), HCV for 167 000 (21%), and other causes for 133 000 (16%) deaths, with substantial variation between countries in the underlying etiologies.Conclusions and Relevance: Liver cancer is among the leading causes of cancer deaths in many countries. Causes of liver cancer differ widely among populations. Our results show that most cases of liver cancer can be prevented through vaccination, antiviral treatment, safe blood transfusion and injection practices, as well as interventions to reduce excessive alcohol use. In line with the Sustainable Development Goals, the identification and elimination of risk factors for liver cancer will be required to achieve a sustained reduction in liver cancer burden. The GBD study can be used to guide these prevention efforts

Burden and risk factors of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in Sub-Saharan African countries, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of disease study 2019

Background: Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) has experienced a surge of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) including chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) over the past two decades. Using data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD), in this study we have estimated the burden and attributable risk factors of COPD across SSA countries between 1990 and 2019. Methods: COPD burden and its attributable risk factors were estimated using data from the 2019 GBD. Percentage change was estimated to show the trend of COPD estimates from 1990 to 2019. COPD estimates attributable by risk factors were also reported to ascertain the risk factor that brings the greatest burden by sex and locations (at country and regions level). Findings: In 2019, all-age prevalent cases of COPD in SSA were estimated to be 10.3 million (95% Uncertainty Intervals (UI) 9.7 million to 10.9 million) showing an increase of 117% compared with the number of all-age COPD cases in 1990. From 1990 to 2019, SSA underwent an increased percentage change in all-age YLDs due to COPD ranging from 41% in Lesotho to 203% in Equatorial Guinea. The largest premature mortality due to COPD was reported from Central SSA accounting for 729 subjects (95% UI, 509-1078). The highest rate of DALYs attributable to COPD was observed in Lesotho. Household air pollution from solid fuel was the primary contributor of the age standardized YLDs, death rate, and DALYs rate per 100,000 population. Interpretation: The prevalence of COPD in SSA has had a steady increase over the past three decades and has progressively become a major public health burden across the region. Household air pollution from solid fuel is the primary contributor to COPD related burden, and its percentage contribution showed a similar trend to the reduction of COPD attributed age-standardized DALY rate. The methodological limitations of surveys and datapoints included in the GBD need to be considered when interpreting these associations. Funding: There are no specific fundings received for this study. The Global Burden of Disease study was supported by funding from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation