A new design equation for prediction of ultimate bearing capacity of shallow foundation on granular soils

A major concern in design of structures is to provide precise estimations of ultimate bearing capacity of soil beneath their foundations. Direct determination of the bearing capacity of foundations requires performing expensive and time consuming laboratory tests. To cope with this issue, several numerical models have been presented by researchers. This paper presents the development of a new design equation for the prediction of the ultimate bearing capacity of shallow foundations on granular soils using linear genetic programming (LGP) methodology. The ultimate bearing capacity is formulated in terms of width of footing, footing geometry, depth of footing, unit weight of sand, and angle of shearing resistance. The LGP-based design equation is established using the results of several load tests on real sized foundations presented in the literature. Validity of the model is verified using a part of laboratory data that are not involved in the calibration process. The statistical measures of coefficient of determination, root mean squared error and mean absolute error are used to evaluate the performance of the model. Sensitivity and parametric analyses are conducted and discussed. The proposed model accurately characterizes the ultimate bearing capacity resulting in a very good prediction performance. The LGP model reaches a better prediction performance than the well-known prediction equations for the bearing capacity of shallow foundations

Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950–2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020–21 COVID-19 pandemic period. Methods: 22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution. Findings: Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5–65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020–21; 5·1% [0·9–9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98–5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50–6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126–137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7–17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8–24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7–51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9–72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0–2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67–8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4–52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0–44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations. Interpretation: Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic

Improving EAP-TLS performance using cryptographic methods

This study is conducted to study and compare two types of Extensible Authentication Protocol-Transport Layer Security (EAP-TLS) in order to provide an alternative technique using robust cryptographic methods. Alternative EAP-TLS uses Elliptic Curve Digital Signature Algorithm (ECDSA) and Secure Hash Algorithm (SHA-256) to provide robust security and high performance. The alternative method and employed mechanisms are fully described, and compared to main EAP-TLS method. The results show the alternative algorithm provides strong security, high speed, and more efficiency with approximately same level of memory usage compared to main EAP-TLS

Improving confidentiality of AES-CCMP in IEEE 802.11I

This paper proposed a new method for Advanced Encryption Standard-Counter Mode with Cipher Block Chaining Message Authentication Code Protocol (AES-CCMP) to eliminate security issues in current method including small effective key length and predictable structure of Nonce which increases the probability of Time-Memory Trade-Off (TMTO) attack. Proposed method suggests three solutions to overcome the mentioned weaknesses including random NonceKey, four way handshake alteration and Pseudo Random Function (PRF). Besides, proposed and classic methods are compared in terms of TMTO attack probability, avalanche effect, changes in neighbor blocks, memory usage and execution time. According to the results, the proposed method is completely resistant to TMTO attack. In addition, avalanche effect and change in neighbor blocks of proposed method are so near to optimized state and also, classic and proposed methods are approximately the same in case of memory usage and execution time

Functional brain response to emotional musical stimuli in depression, using INLA approach for approximate Bayesian inference

Introduction: One of the vital skills which has an impact on emotional health and well-being is the regulation of emotions. In recent years, the neural basis of this process has been considered widely. One of the powerful tools for eliciting and regulating emotion is music. The Anterior Cingulate Cortex (ACC) is part of the emotional neural circuitry involved in Major Depressive Disorder (MDD). The current study uses functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging (fMRI) to examine how neural processing of emotional musical auditory stimuli is changed within the ACC in depression. Statistical inference is conducted using a Bayesian Generalized Linear Model (GLM) approach with an Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation (INLA) algorithm. Methods: A new proposed Bayesian approach was applied for assessing functional response to emotional musical auditory stimuli in a block design fMRI data with 105 scans of two healthy and depressed women. In this Bayesian approach, Unweighted Graph-Laplacian (UGL) prior was chosen for spatial dependency, and autoregressive (AR) (1) process was used for temporal correlation via pre-weighting residuals. Finally, the inference was conducted using the Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation (INLA) algorithm in the R-INLA package. Results: The results revealed that positive music, as compared to negative music, elicits stronger activation within the ACC area in both healthy and depressed subjects. In comparing MDD and Never-Depressed (ND) individuals, a significant difference was found between MDD and ND groups in response to positive music vs negative music stimuli. The activations increase from baseline to positive stimuli and decrease from baseline to negative stimuli in ND subjects. Also, a significant decrease from baseline to positive stimuli was observed in MDD subjects, but there was no significant difference between baseline and negative stimuli. Conclusion: Assessing the pattern of activations within ACC in a depressed individual may be useful in retraining the ACC and improving its function, and lead to more effective therapeutic interventions

Functional Brain Response to Emotional Muical Stimuli in Depression, Using INLA Approach for Approximate Bayesian Inference

Introduction: One of the vital skills which has an impact on emotional health and well-being is the regulation of emotions. In recent years, the neural basis of this process has been considered widely. One of the powerful tools for eliciting and regulating emotion is music. The Anterior Cingulate Cortex (ACC) is part of the emotional neural circuitry involved in Major Depressive Disorder (MDD). The current study uses functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging (fMRI) to examine how neural processing of emotional musical auditory stimuli is changed within the ACC in depression. Statistical inference is conducted using a Bayesian Generalized Linear Model (GLM) approach with an Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation (INLA) algorithm. Methods: A new proposed Bayesian approach was applied for assessing functional response to emotional musical auditory stimuli in a block design fMRI data with 105 scans of two healthy and depressed women. In this Bayesian approach, Unweighted Graph-Laplacian (UGL) prior was chosen for spatial dependency, and autoregressive (AR) (1) process was used for temporal correlation via pre-weighting residuals. Finally, the inference was conducted using the Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation (INLA) algorithm in the R-INLA package. Results: The results revealed that positive music, as compared to negative music, elicits stronger activation within the ACC area in both healthy and depressed subjects. In comparing MDD and Never-Depressed (ND) individuals, a significant difference was found between MDD and ND groups in response to positive music vs negative music stimuli. The activations increase from baseline to positive stimuli and decrease from baseline to negative stimuli in ND subjects. Also, a significant decrease from baseline to positive stimuli was observed in MDD subjects, but there was no significant difference between baseline and negative stimuli. Conclusion: Assessing the pattern of activations within ACC in a depressed individual may be useful in retraining the ACC and improving its function, and lead to more effective therapeutic interventions

Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950–2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BackgroundEstimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020–21 COVID-19 pandemic period.Methods22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution.FindingsGlobal all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5–65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020–21; 5·1% [0·9–9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98–5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50–6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126–137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7–17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8–24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7–51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9–72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0–2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67–8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4–52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0–44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations.InterpretationGlobal adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic