The Monetary Transmission Mechanism in The United Kingdom: Pass-Through & Policy Ru

A number of recent papers have used policy simulations from small empirical macro models to assess the efficacy of inflation-forecast targeting. The macro models used to undertake the simulations differ significantly with the assumed degree of openness, an important factor for the analysis. However, the open economy models typically approach the pass-through from exchange rate to import prices and ultimately retail prices in a stylized manner, assuming full and instantaneous pass-through. This paper modifies the open economy macro model presented in Batini and Haldane (1999) to accommodate a variety of pass-through representations, considering time and state-(cycle)-dependent pass-through rules. While the model’s dynamics are affected, the main result of Batini and Haldane – that targeting an inflation forecast dominates targeting current inflation – is robust to the assumed rate of pass-through.

Realizing the potential of fluvial archives using robust OSL chronologies

Optically Stimulated Luminescence (OSL) dating has enormous potential for interpreting fluvial sediments, because the mineral grains used for OSL dating are abundant in fluvial deposits. However, the limited light exposure of mineral grains during fluvial transport and deposition often leads to scatter and inaccuracy in OSL dating results. Here we present a statistical protocol which aims to overcome these difficulties. Rather than estimating a single burial age for a sample, we present ages as likelihood functions created by bootstrap re-sampling of the equivalent-dose data. The bootstrap likelihoods incorporate uncertainty from age-model parameters and plausible variation in the input data. This approach has the considerable advantage that it permits Bayesian methods to be used to interpret sequences containing multiple samples, including partially bleached OSL data. We apply the statistical protocol to both single-grain and small-aliquot OSL data from samples of recent fluvial sediment. The combination of bootstrap likelihoods and Bayesian processing may greatly improve OSL chronologies for fluvial sediment, and allow OSL ages from partially bleached samples to be combined with other age information

A State Space Approach to Extracting the Signal from Uncertain Data

Most macroeconomic data are uncertain - they are estimates rather than perfect measures of underlying economic variables. One symptom of that uncertainty is the propensity of statistical agencies to revise their estimates in the light of new information or methodological advances. This paper sets out an approach for extracting the signal from uncertain data. It describes a two-step estimation procedure in which the history of past revisions are first used to estimate the parameters of a measurement equation describing the official published estimates. These parameters are then imposed in a maximum likelihood estimation of a state space model for the macroeconomic variable.Real-time data analysis, State space models, Data uncertainty, Data revisions

Sharing and visualizing environmental data using Virtual Globes

Virtual globe technology holds many exciting possibilities for environmental science. These easy-to-use, intuitive systems provide means for simultaneously visualizing four-dimensional environmental data from many different sources, enabling the generation of new hypotheses and driving greater understanding of the Earth system. Through the use of simple markup languages, scientists can publish and consume data in interoperable formats without the need for technical assistance. In this paper we give, with examples from our own work, a number of scientific uses for virtual globes, demonstrating their particular advantages. We explain how we have used Web Services to connect virtual globes with diverse data sources and enable more sophisticated usage such as data analysis and collaborative visualization. We also discuss the current limitations of the technology, with particular regard to the visualization of subsurface data and vertical sections

High-precision natural dose rate estimates through beta counting

The beta-particle emission from a sediment or rock sample can be measured very precisely using beta-counting instruments. The observed count rate is largely a function of the radionuclide concentration in the sample, so has the potential to provide a precise estimate of the natural radiation dose rate. However, the count rate is also sensitive to the attenuation of beta particles in the sample, and the relative proportions of the different radionuclide sources. Here we devise a correction for the self-attenuation effect using dilution analysis, and show that imprecise prior knowledge of radionuclide activity is sufficient for calculation of an accurate combined beta-plus-gamma dry dose rate. The method is tested on a selection of archive samples, and compared with results from high-resolution gamma-spectrometry. We show that with counting uncertainty ∼2%, and calibration uncertainty ∼2%, the total random uncertainty of the beta-plus-gamma dry dose rate is less than 3%. For most natural sediments, this level of precision equal to, or better than, that obtainable with other methods

Type Inference for Deadlock Detection in a Multithreaded Polymorphic Typed Assembly Language

We previously developed a polymorphic type system and a type checker for a multithreaded lock-based polymorphic typed assembly language (MIL) that ensures that well-typed programs do not encounter race conditions. This paper extends such work by taking into consideration deadlocks. The extended type system verifies that locks are acquired in the proper order. Towards this end we require a language with annotations that specify the locking order. Rather than asking the programmer (or the compiler's backend) to specifically annotate each newly introduced lock, we present an algorithm to infer the annotations. The result is a type checker whose input language is non-decorated as before, but that further checks that programs are exempt from deadlocks

Indirect effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on paediatric healthcare use and severe disease: a retrospective national cohort study

OBJECTIVES: To determine the indirect consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic on paediatric healthcare utilisation and severe disease at a national level following lockdown on 23 March 2020. DESIGN: National retrospective cohort study. SETTING: Emergency childhood primary and secondary care providers across Scotland; two national paediatric intensive care units (PICUs); statutory death records. PARTICIPANTS: 273 455 unscheduled primary care attendances; 462 437 emergency department attendances; 54 076 emergency hospital admissions; 413 PICU unplanned emergency admissions requiring invasive mechanical ventilation; and 415 deaths during the lockdown study period and equivalent dates in previous years. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Rates of emergency care consultations, attendances and admissions; clinical severity scores on presentation to PICU; rates and causes of childhood death. For all data sets, rates during the lockdown period were compared with mean or aggregated rates for the equivalent dates in 2016–2019. RESULTS: The rates of emergency presentations to primary and secondary care fell during lockdown in comparison to previous years. Emergency PICU admissions for children requiring invasive mechanical ventilation also fell as a proportion of cases for the entire population, with an OR of 0.52 for likelihood of admission during lockdown (95% CI 0.37 to 0.73), compared with the equivalent period in previous years. Clinical severity scores did not suggest children were presenting with more advanced disease. The greatest reduction in PICU admissions was for diseases of the respiratory system; those for injury, poisoning or other external causes were equivalent to previous years. Mortality during lockdown did not change significantly compared with 2016–2019. CONCLUSIONS: National lockdown led to a reduction in paediatric emergency care utilisation, without associated evidence of severe harm