Spatio-temporal models to determine association between Campylobacter cases and environment

Background: Campylobacteriosis is a major cause of gastroenteritis in the UK, and although 70% of cases are associated with food sources, the remainder are probably associated with wider environmental exposure. Methods: In order to investigate wider environmental transmission, we conducted a spatio-temporal analysis of the association of human cases of Campylobacter in the Tyne catchment with weather, climate, hydrology and land use. A hydrological model was used to predict surface-water flow in the Tyne catchment over 5 years. We analysed associations between population-adjusted Campylobacter case rate and environmental factors hypothesised to be important in disease using a two stage modelling framework. First, we investigated associations between temporal variation in case rate in relation to surface-water flow, temperature, evapotranspiration and rainfall using linear mixed-effects models. Second, we used the random effects for the first model to quantify how spatial variation in static landscape features of soil and land use impacted on the likely differences between subcatchment associations of case rate with the temporal variables.  Results: Population-adjusted Campylobacter case rates were associated with periods of high predicted surface-water flow, and during above average temperatures. Subcatchments with cattle on stagnogley soils, and to a lesser extent sheep plus cattle grazing, had higher Campylobacter case rates.  Conclusions: Areas of stagnogley soils with mixed livestock grazing may be more vulnerable to both Campylobacter spread and exposure during periods of high rainfall, with resultant increased risk of human cases of the disease

Pathogenic Variants in MT-ATP6: A United Kingdom-Based Mitochondrial Disease Cohort Study

Distinct clinical syndromes have been associated with pathogenic MT-ATP6 variants. In this cohort study, we identified 125 individuals (60 families) including 88 clinically affected individuals and 37 asymptomatic carriers. Thirty-one individuals presented with Leigh syndrome and 7 with neuropathy ataxia retinitis pigmentosa. The remaining 50 patients presented with variable nonsyndromic features including ataxia, neuropathy, and learning disability. We confirmed maternal inheritance in 39 families and demonstrated that tissue segregation patterns and phenotypic threshold are variant dependent. Our findings suggest that MT-ATP6-related mitochondrial DNA disease is best conceptualized as a mitochondrial disease spectrum disorder and should be routinely included in genetic ataxia and neuropathy gene panels. ANN NEUROL 2019;86:310-31

Climate, human behaviour or environment: individual-based modelling of Campylobacter seasonality and strategies to reduce disease burden

Acknowledgements: We thank colleagues within the Modelling, Evidence and Policy Research Group for useful feedback on this manuscript. Competing interests: The authors declare that they have no competing interests. Availability of data and materials: The R code used in this research is available at https://gitlab.com/rasanderson/campylobacter-microsimulation; it is platform independent, R version 3.3.0 and above. Funding: This research was funded by Medical Research Council Grant, Natural Environment Research Council, Economic and Social Research Council, Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council, and the Food Standards Agency through the Environmental and Social Ecology of Human Infectious Diseases Initiative (Sources, seasonality, transmission and control: Campylobacter and human behaviour in a changing environment (ENIGMA); Grant Reference G1100799-1). PRH, SJO’B, and IRL are funded in part by the NIHR Health Protection Research Unit in Gastrointestinal Infection, at the University of Liverpool. PRH and IRL are also funded in part by the NIHR Health Protection Research Unit in Emergency Preparedness and Response, at King’s College London. The views expressed are those of the author(s) and not necessarily those of the NHS, the NIHR, the Department of Health or Public Health England.Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Understanding and Modelling Large-Scale Change in the Vegetation of the British Countryside

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