Effect of Multicolinearity and Autocorrelation on Predictive Ability of Some Estimators of Linear Regression Model

Violation of the assumptions of independent regressors and error terms in linear regression model has respectively resulted into the problems of multicollinearity and autocorrelation. Each of these problems separately has significant effect on parameters estimation of the model parameters and hence prediction.  This paper therefore attempts to investigate the joint effect of the existence of multicollinerity and autocorrlation on Ordinary Least Square (OLS) estimator, Cochrane-Orcutt (COR) estimator, Maximum Likelihood (ML) estimator and the estimators based on Principal Component (PC) analysis on prediction of linear regression model through Monte Carlo studies using the adjusted coefficient of determination goodness of fit statistic of each estimator. With correlated normal variables as regressors, it further identifies the best estimator for prediction at various levels of sample sizes (n), multicollinearity  and autocorrlation . Results reveal the pattern of performances of COR and ML at each level of multicollinearity over the levels of autocorrelation to be generally and evidently convex especially when  and while that of OLS and PC is generally concave. Moreover, the COR and ML estimators perform equivalently and better; and their performances become much better as multicollinearity increases. The COR estimator is generally the best estimator for prediction except at high level of multicollinearity and low levels of autocorrelation. At these instances, the PC estimator is either best or competes with the COR estimator. Moreover, when the sample size is small (n=10) and multicollinearity level is not high, the OLS estimator is best at low level of autocorrelation whereas the ML is best at moderate levels of autocorrelation. .Keywords: Prediction, Estimators, Linear Regression Model, Multicollinearity, Autocorrelation

G´en´etique Clinique dans le Service de P´ediatrie et de G´en´etique M´edicale du Centre National Hospitalier et Universitaire de Cotonou : Etat des Lieux et Perspectives

Il s’agissait d’une ´etude r´etrospective descriptive portant sur les patients rec¸us en consultation de g´en´etique m´edicale de Septembre 2004 `a Aoˆut 2007. Les patients b´en´eficiaient des examens dysmorphologique et physique, des bilans cytog´en´etiques et/ou mol´eculaires, des interventions th´erapeutiques et un suivi `a long terme. Les variables ´etudi´ees ´etaient les donn´ees sociod´emographiques et cliniques. Soixante et seize patients ont ´et´e rec¸us durant la p´eriode avec une pr´edominance masculine (57,89%). Les motifs de consultation ´etaient domin´es par le retard psychomoteur (38,15%), la dysmorphie faciale (30,26%) et les malformations (19,73%). Les principales malformations portaient sur les extr´emit´es et la face. Les pathologies confirm´ees comprenaient des aberrations chromosomiques (46,05%) avec une pr´edominance de la trisomie 21 et des maladies monog´eniques (7,89%). Le rendement de nos recherches pourrait ˆetre am´elior´e par l’acc`es `a la technique FISH. C’est une exp´erience quasi unique en Afrique de l’ouest et permet d’apporter des r´eponses aux personnes souffrant d’affections h´er´editaires.Mots Cl´es g´en´etique clinique ; retard psychomoteur ; dysmorphie ; malformation ; aberration chromosomique ; maladie monog´eniqu

miR-16 family induces cell cycle arrest by regulating multiple cell cycle genes

MicroRNAs (miRNAs) are a class of small regulatory RNAs that are thought to be involved in diverse biological processes by regulating gene expression. Numerous miRNAs have been identified in various species, and many more miRNAs remain to be detected. Generally, hundreds of mRNAs have been predicted to be potential targets of one miRNA, so it is a great challenge to identify the genuine miRNA targets. Here, we generated the cell lines depleted of Drosha protein and screened dozens of transcripts (including Cyclin D1) regulated potentially by miRNA-mediated RNA silencing pathway. On the basis of miRNA expressing library, we established a miRNA targets reverse screening method by using luciferase reporter assay. By this method, we found that the expression of Cyclin D1 (CCND1) was regulated by miR-16 family directly, and miR-16 induced G1 arrest in A549 cells partially by CCND1. Furthermore, several other cell cycle genes were revealed to be regulated by miR-16 family, including Cyclin D3 (CCND3), Cyclin E1 (CCNE1) and CDK6. Taken together, our data suggests that miR-16 family triggers an accumulation of cells in G0/G1 by silencing multiple cell cycle genes simultaneously, rather than the individual target

The Impact of Maternal Depression and Parent–Child Interactions on Risk of Parasitic Infections in Early Childhood: A Prospective Cohort in Benin

Objectives: Maternal depression occurs in 13–20% of women from low-income countries, which is associated with negative child health outcomes, including diarrheal disease. However, few studies have investigated its impact on child risk of infectious disease. We studied the impacts of maternal depressive symptoms and parent–child interactions, independently, on the risk of Plasmodium falciparum malaria and soil-transmitted helminth infection in Beninese children. Methods: Our population included mothers and children enrolled in a clinical trial during pregnancy (MiPPAD) in Benin. The Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale (EPDS) assessed maternal depressive symptoms and the home observation measurement of the environment (HOME) assessed parent–child interactions. Blood and stool sample analyses diagnosed child malaria and helminth infection at 12, 18, and 24 months. Negative binomial and Poisson regression models with robust variance tested associations. Results: Of the 302 mother–child pairs, 39 (12.9%) mothers had depressive symptoms. Median number of malaria episodes per child was 3 (0–14) and 29.1% children had at least one helminth infection. Higher EPDS scores were associated with lower HOME scores; relative risk (RR) 0.97 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.95, 0.99), particularly with lower acceptance, involvement, and variety subscales; RR 0.92 (95% CI 0.85, 0.99), RR 0.82 (95% CI 0.77, 0.88), RR 0.93 (95% CI 0.88, 0.99), respectively. However, neither exposure was associated with risk of parasitic infection in children. Conclusions for Practice: Maternal depressive symptoms are associated with poor parent–child interactions, particularly acceptance of behavior, involvement with children, and variety of interactions, but these exposures do not independently impact risk of parasitic infection in children

Second-line agents in myositis: 1-year factorial trial of additional immunosuppression in patients who have partially responded to steroids

Objective. Ciclosporin and MTX are used in idiopathic inflammatory myopathies (DM and PM) when patients incompletely respond to glucocorticoids. Their effectiveness is unproved in randomized controlled trials (RCTs). We evaluated their benefits in a placebo-controlled factorial RCT. Methods. A 56-week multicentre factorial-design double-blind placebo-controlled RCT compared steroids alone, MTX (15–25 mg weekly) plus steroids, ciclosporin (1–5 mg/kg/day) plus steroids and all three treatments. It enrolled adults with myositis (by Bohan and Peter criteria) with active disease receiving corticosteroids. Results. A total of 359 patients were screened and 58 randomized. Of the latter, 37 patients completed 12 months of treatment, 7 were lost to follow-up and 14 discontinued treatment. Patients completing 12 months of treatment showed significant improvement (P < 0.001 on paired t-tests) in manual muscle testing (14% change), walking time (22% change) and function (9% change). Intention to treat and completer analyses indicated that ciclosporin monotherapy, MTX monotherapy and ciclosporin/MTX combination therapy showed no significant treatment effects in comparison with placebo. Conclusion. Neither MTX nor ciclosporin (by themselves or in combination) improved clinical features in myositis patients who had incompletely responded to glucocorticoids

A Systems Biology Approach to Characterize the Regulatory Networks Leading to Trabectedin Resistance in an In Vitro Model of Myxoid Liposarcoma

Trabectedin, a new antitumor compound originally derived from a marine tunicate, is clinically effective in soft tissue sarcoma. The drug has shown a high selectivity for myxoid liposarcoma, characterized by the translocation t(12;16)(q13; p11) leading to the expression of FUS-CHOP fusion gene. Trabectedin appears to act interfering with mechanisms of transcription regulation. In particular, the transactivating activity of FUS-CHOP was found to be impaired by trabectedin treatment. Even after prolonged response resistance occurs and thus it is important to elucidate the mechanisms of resistance to trabectedin. To this end we developed and characterized a myxoid liposarcoma cell line resistant to trabectedin (402-91/ET), obtained by exposing the parental 402-91 cell line to stepwise increases in drug concentration. The aim of this study was to compare mRNAs, miRNAs and proteins profiles of 402-91 and 402-91/ET cells through a systems biology approach. We identified 3,083 genes, 47 miRNAs and 336 proteins differentially expressed between 402-91 and 402-91/ET cell lines. Interestingly three miRNAs among those differentially expressed, miR-130a, miR-21 and miR-7, harbored CHOP binding sites in their promoter region. We used computational approaches to integrate the three regulatory layers and to generate a molecular map describing the altered circuits in sensitive and resistant cell lines. By combining transcriptomic and proteomic data, we reconstructed two different networks, i.e. apoptosis and cell cycle regulation, that could play a key role in modulating trabectedin resistance. This approach highlights the central role of genes such as CCDN1, RB1, E2F4, TNF, CDKN1C and ABL1 in both pre- and post-transcriptional regulatory network. The validation of these results in in vivo models might be clinically relevant to stratify myxoid liposarcoma patients with different sensitivity to trabectedin treatment

Impact of helminth infection during pregnancy on cognitive and motor functions of one-year-old children

Objective To determine the effect of helminth infection during pregnancy on the cognitive and motor functions of one-year-old children. Methods Six hundred and thirty five singletons born to pregnant women enrolled before 29 weeks of gestation in a trial comparing two intermittent preventive treatments for malaria were assessed for cognitive and motor functions using the Mullen Scales of Early Learning, in the TOVI study, at twelve months of age in the district of Allada in Benin. Stool samples of pregnant women were collected at recruitment, second antenatal care (ANC) visit (at least one month after recruitment) and just before delivery, and were tested for helminths using the Kato-Katz technique. All pregnant women were administered a total of 600 mg of mebendazole (100 mg two times daily for 3 days) to be taken after the first ANC visit. The intake was not directly observed. Results Prevalence of helminth infection was 11.5%, 7.5% and 3.0% at first ANC visit, second ANC visit and at delivery, respectively. Children of mothers who were infected with hookworms at the first ANC visit had 4.9 (95% CI: 1.3–8.6) lower mean gross motor scores compared to those whose mothers were not infected with hookworms at the first ANC visit, in the adjusted model. Helminth infection at least once during pregnancy was associated with infant cognitive and gross motor functions after adjusting for maternal education, gravidity, child sex, family possessions, and quality of the home stimulation. Conclusion Helminth infection during pregnancy is associated with poor cognitive and gross motor outcomes in infants. Measures to prevent helminth infection during pregnancy should be reinforced

Cell cyclins: triggering elements of cancer or not?

Cyclins are indispensable elements of the cell cycle and derangement of their function can lead to cancer formation. Recent studies have also revealed more mechanisms through which cyclins can express their oncogenic potential. This review focuses on the aberrant expression of G1/S cyclins and especially cyclin D and cyclin E; the pathways through which they lead to tumour formation and their involvement in different types of cancer. These elements indicate the mechanisms that could act as targets for cancer therapy

Concurrent Oral 1 - Therapy of rheumatic disease: OP4. Effectiveness of Rituximab in Rheumatoid Arthritis: Results from the British Society for Rheumatology Biologics Register (BSRBR)

Background: Rituximab (RTX) in combination with methotrexate (MTX) has been licensed since 2006 for the management of severe active rheumatoid arthritis (RA) in patients who have failed at least one anti-tumour necrosis factor (anti-TNF) therapy. Published clinical trials have demonstrated the efficacy of RTX in improving both clinical symptoms and patients' physical function. This study aimed to assess the effectiveness of RTX in RA patients treated in routine clinical practice by examining clinical and patient reported outcomes six months after receiving a first course of RTX. Methods: The analysis involved 550 RA patients registered with the BSRBR, who were starting RTX and were followed up for at least 6 months. Change in Disease Activity Score (DAS28) and European League Against Rheumatism (EULAR) response were used to assess the clinical response while change in Health Assessment Questionnaire (HAQ) score was used to assess the physical function of the patients 6 months after starting RTX. The change in DAS28 and HAQ was compared between seronegative and seropositive patients and anti-TNF naïve patients versus anti-TNF failures. The response was also compared between patients receiving RTX in combination with MTX, other non-biologic disease modifying anti-rheumatic drugs (nbDMARDs) or no nbDMARDs. Results: The mean (s.d.) age of the cohort was 59 (12) years and 78% of the patients were females. The patients had a mean (s.d.) of 15 (10) years of disease duration. 16% were biologic naïve while 84% were anti-TNF failures. 32% of the patients were seronegative and 68% were seropositive. The mean (95% CI) DAS28 at baseline was 6.2 (6.1, 6.3) which decreased to 4.8 (4.7, 4.9) at 6 months of follow up. 16% were EULAR good responders, 43% were moderate responders and 41% were non responders. The mean (95% CI) change in HAQ was −0.1 (−0.2, −0.1) (Table 1). The mean change in DAS28 was similar in seropositive and seronegative patients (p = 0.18) while the anti-TNF naïve patients showed a greater reduction in DAS28 scores than anti-TNF failures (p = 0.05). Patients receiving RTX in combination with MTX showed similar changes in DAS28 and HAQ compared to patients receiving RTX alone or with other nbDMARDs. Conclusions: RTX has proven to be effective in the routine clinical practice. Anti-TNF naïve patients seem to benefit more from RTX treatment than anti-TNF failures. Disclosure statement: The authors have declared no conflicts of interes