Morphology of Tigris River within Baghdad City

In recent years, substantial changes have occurred in the morphology of the River Tigris within Baghdad City. Although huge volumes of sediment are being trapped in recently constructed headwater reservoirs, the number of islands in the Tigris at Baghdad is increasing. The debris of bridges destroyed in the wars of 1991 and 2003 and their subsequent reconstruction have enhanced the development of these islands. As a consequence the ability of the river to carry the peaks of flood waters has been reduced. This has led to potential increase of flooding in parts of the city. <br><br> The bed of the River Tigris has been surveyed on three occasions (1976, 1991, and 2008). The most recent survey was conducted by the Ministry of Water Resources, extended 49 km from the Al-Muthana Bridge north Baghdad to the confluence with the Diyala River south Baghdad. It yielded cross-section profiles at 250 m intervals. The data are used to predict the maximum flood capacity for the river using the one-dimensional hydraulic model for steady flow "HEC-RAS" modeling. Calibration of the model was carried out using field measurements for water levels along the last 15 km of the reach and the last 10 yr of observation at the Sarai Baghdad gauging station. <br><br> The model showed a significant predicted reduction in the current river capacity below that which the river had carried during the floods of 1971 and 1988. The three surveys conducted on the same reach of the Tigris indicated that the ability of the river to transport water has decreased

Expected Future Precipitation in Central Iraq Using LARS-WG Stochastic Weather Generator

The Middle East (ME) is characterized by its water shortage problem. This region with its arid climate is expected to be the most vulnerable in the world to the potential impacts of climate change. Iraq (located in ME) is seriously experiencing water shortage problem. To overcome this problem rain water harvesting can be used. In this study the applicability of the long-term weather generator model in downscaling daily precipitation Central Iraq is used to project future changes of precipitation based on scenario of seven General Circulation Models (GCMs) outputs for the periods of 2011-2030, 2046-2065, and 2080-2099. The results indicated that December-February and September-November periods, based on the ensemble mean of seven GCMs, showed an increasing trend in the periods considered; however, a decreasing trend can be found in March, April, and May in the future

Future Prospects for Macro Rainwater Harvesting (RWH) Technique in North East Iraq

Countries in Middle East and North Africa (MENA region) are considered arid and semi-arid areas that are suffering from water scarcity. They are expected to have more water shortages problem due to climatic change. Iraq is located in the Middle East covering an area of 433,970 square kilometers populated by 31 million inhabitants. One of the solutions suggested to overcome water scarcity is Rain Water Harvesting (RWH). In this study Macro rain-water harvesting technique had been tested for future rainfall data that were predicted by two emission scenarios of climatic change (A2 and B2) for the period 2020-2099 at Sulaimaniyah Governorate north east of Iraq. Future volumes of total runoff that might be harvested for different conditions of maximum, average, and minimum future rainfall seasons under both scenarios (A2 and B2) were calculated. The results indicate that the volumes of average harvested runoff will be reduced when average rainfall seasons are considered due to the effect of climatic change on future rainfall. The reduction reached 10.82 % and 43.0% when scenarios A2 and B2 are considered respectively

CLIMATE CHANGE AND FUTURE PRECIPITATION IN AN ARID ENVIRONMENT OF THE MIDDLE EAST: CASE STUDY OF IRAQ

In this paper impact of climate change on precipitation in the arid environment of Iraq is examined. LARS-WG weather generator was applied to 5 representative regions to model current and future precipitation under climate change. Seven Global Climate Models (GCMs) have been employed to account for any uncertainty on future projection for three selected periods, 2011-2030, 2046-2065 and 2080-2099. Performance of LARS-WG in each site was first evaluated using the Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistical test for fitting wet/dry days in each site, as well as comparison of the mean and standard deviation between the observed and simulated precipitation. The developed LARS-WG models were found to perform well and skilful in simulating precipitation in the arid regions of Iraq as evidenced by the tests carried and the comparison made. The precipitation models were then used to obtain future projections for precipitation using the IPCC scenario SRES A2. Future precipitation results show that most of the Iraq regions are projected to suffer a reduction in annual mean precipitation, especially by the end of the 21st century, while on a seasonal basis most of the regions are anticipated to be wetter in autumn and winter. Journa

Constrained Statistical Modelling of Knee Flexion from Multi-Pose Magnetic Resonance Imaging

© 1982-2012 IEEE.Reconstruction of the anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) through arthroscopy is one of the most common procedures in orthopaedics. It requires accurate alignment and drilling of the tibial and femoral tunnels through which the ligament graft is attached. Although commercial computer-Assisted navigation systems exist to guide the placement of these tunnels, most of them are limited to a fixed pose without due consideration of dynamic factors involved in different knee flexion angles. This paper presents a new model for intraoperative guidance of arthroscopic ACL reconstruction with reduced error particularly in the ligament attachment area. The method uses 3D preoperative data at different flexion angles to build a subject-specific statistical model of knee pose. To circumvent the problem of limited training samples and ensure physically meaningful pose instantiation, homogeneous transformations between different poses and local-deformation finite element modelling are used to enlarge the training set. Subsequently, an anatomical geodesic flexion analysis is performed to extract the subject-specific flexion characteristics. The advantages of the method were also tested by detailed comparison to standard Principal Component Analysis (PCA), nonlinear PCA without training set enlargement, and other state-of-The-Art articulated joint modelling methods. The method yielded sub-millimetre accuracy, demonstrating its potential clinical value

Prospects for Improving the Intrinsic and Extrinsic Properties of Magnesium Diboride Superconducting Strands

The magnetic and transport properties of magnesium diboride films represent performance goals yet to be attained by powder-processed bulk samples and conductors. Such performance limits are still out of the reach of even the best magnesium diboride magnet wire. In discussing the present status and prospects for improving the performance of powder-based wire we focus attention on (1) the intrinsic (intragrain) superconducting properties of magnesium diboride, Hc2 and flux pinning, (2) factors that control the efficiency with which current is transported from grain-to-grain in the conductor, an extrinsic (intergrain) property. With regard to Item-(1), the role of dopants in Hc2 enhancement is discussed and examples presented. On the other hand their roles in increasing Jc, both via Hc2 enhancement as well as direct fluxoid/pining-center interaction, are discussed and a comprehensive survey of Hc2 dopants and flux-pinning additives is presented. Current transport through the powder-processed wire (an extrinsic property) is partially blocked by the inherent granularity of the material itself and the chemical or other properties of the intergrain surfaces. These and other such results indicate that in many cases less than 15% of the conductor's cross sectional area is able to carry transport current. It is pointed out that densification in association with the elimination of grain-boundary blocking phases would yield five-to ten-fold increases in Jc in relevant regimes, enabling the performance of magnesium diboride in selected applications to compete with that of Nb-Sn

Internet-based search of randomised trials relevant to mental health originating in the Arab world

BACKGROUND: The internet is becoming a widely used source of accessing medical research through various on-line databases. This instant access to information is of benefit to busy clinicians and service users around the world. The population of the Arab World is comparable to that of the United States, yet it is widely believed to have a greatly contrasting output of randomised controlled trials related to mental health. This study was designed to investigate the existence of such research in the Arab World and also to investigate the availability of this research on-line. METHODS: Survey of findings from three internet-based potential sources of randomised trials originating from the Arab world and relevant to mental health care. RESULTS: A manual search of an Arabic online current contents service identified 3 studies, MEDLINE, EMBASE, and PsycINFO searches identified only 1 study, and a manual search of a specifically indexed, study-based mental health database, PsiTri, revealed 27 trials. CONCLUSION: There genuinely seem to be few trials from the Arab world and accessing these on-line was problematic. Replication of some studies that guide psychiatric/psychological practice in the Arab world would seem prudent

The images of psychiatry scale: development, factor structure, and reliability.

BACKGROUND: This analysis is based on a survey questionnaire designed to describe medical educators' views of psychiatry and psychiatrists. Our goals in this paper were to assess the psychometric properties of the survey questions by (a) using exploratory factor analysis to identify the basic factor structure underlying 37 survey items; (b) testing the resulting factor structure using confirmatory factor analysis; and (c) assessing the internal reliability of each identified factor. To our knowledge, this is the first attempt to use these techniques to psychometrically assess a scale measuring the strength of stigma that medical educators attached to psychiatry. METHODS: Survey data were collected from a random sample of 1,059 teaching faculty in 23 academic teaching sites in 15 countries. We conducted exploratory and confirmatory factor analysis to identify the scale structure and Cronbach's alpha to assess internal consistency of the resulting scales. RESULTS: Results showed that a two-factor solution was the best fit for the data. Following exploratory factor analysis, we conducted confirmatory factor analysis on a split half of the sample. Results highlighted several items with low loadings. Excluding factors with low correlations and allowing for several correlated variances resulted in a good fitting model explaining 95% of the variance in the data. CONCLUSIONS: We identified two unidimensional scales. The Images Scale contained 11 items measuring stereotypic content concerning psychiatry and psychiatrists. The Efficacy of Psychiatry Scale contained 5 items addressing perceptions of the challenges and effectiveness of psychiatry as a discipline

Antimicrobial Stewardship from Policy to Practice: Experiences from UK Antimicrobial Pharmacists

Antimicrobial stewardship in the UK has evolved dramatically in the last 15 years. Factors driving this include initial central funding for specialist pharmacists and mandatory reductions in healthcare-associated infections (particularly Clostridium difficile infection). More recently, the introduction of national stewardship guidelines, and an increased focus on stewardship as part of the UK five-year antimicrobial resistance strategy, have accelerated and embedded developments. Antimicrobial pharmacists have been instrumental in effecting changes at an organizational and national level. This article describes the evolution of the antimicrobial pharmacist role, its impact, the progress toward the actions listed in the five-year resistance strategy, and novel emerging areas in stewardship in the UK