Consumer confidence indeces and short-term forecasting of consumption

Recently there has been growing interest in examining the potential shortterm link between survey-based confidence indicators and real economic activity, notably for macroeconomic policy making. This paper builds on previous studies to establish whether there is a short-term predictive relationship between measures of consumer confidence and actual consumption, that could be used for forecasting, in a range of major industrial countries. It then extends such previous analyses by assessing whether this relation has changed over time, and whether we can attribute any time-varying relation to structural developments in the economy, such as financial deepening and the increasing role of house prices in determination of consumption

Consumer confidence indices and short-term forecasting of consumption

Recently there has been growing interest in examining the potential shortterm link between survey-based confidence indicators and real economic activity, notably for macroeconomic policy making. This paper builds on previous studies to establish whether there is a short-term predictive relationship between measures of consumer confidence and actual consumption, that could be used for forecasting, in a range of major industrial countries. It then extends such previous analyses by assessing whether this relation has changed over time, and whether we can attribute any time-varying relation to structural developments in the economy, such as financial deepening and the increasing role of house prices in determination of consumption

Rate of Opportunistic Pap Smear Screening and Patterns of Epithelial Cell Abnormalities in Pap Smears in Ajman, United Arab Emirates

Objectives: The aim of this study was to estimate the proportion of women undergoing Papanicolaou (Pap) smear examinations, and the frequency of epithelial cell abnormalities in a teaching hospital in one emirate of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) during a three-year period. Methods: A retrospective study of 602 patient records from July 2007 to July 2010 was done in a teaching hospital in Ajman, UAE. The variables studied were age, ethnicity, menopausal status, and abnormalities in the Pap smear. Data were analysed using the Statistical Package for the Social Sciences and presented mainly as percentages; to assess associations, the chi-square test was used. Results: The total number of outpatients who attended the Obstetrics & Gynaecology Department from July 2007 to July 2010 was 150,111 patients, of which 602 (0.4% of the total) had a Pap smear test. The sample was 50.1% Arabs and 49.9% other nationalities. While 73% of the outpatients had specific complaints, 27% came for a routine screening. Epithelial cell abnormalities were seen in 3.3% of the sample, with atypical squamous cells of undetermined significance (ASCUS) found in 1.8%, low-grade squamous intraepithelial lesions (LSILs) found in 1.2%, and high-grade squamous intraepithelial lesions (HSILs) found in 0.3%. There were no cases of squamous cell carcinoma. Conclusion: Voluntary routine Pap smear screening was remarkably low in the study group. ASCUS was the most common epithelial cell abnormality. Community health education and opportunistic screening for cervical cancer are recommended for both national and expatriate women in the region.

Uptake of breast and cervical cancer screening in four Gulf Cooperation Council countries

In Gulf Cooperation Council States, there is limited information on national levels of mammography and Pap smear screening uptake. The aim of this study is to provide a baseline for national estimates for mammography and Pap smear screening and to explore associations between screening uptake and socioeconomic factors. The nationally representative World Health Survey Plus, implemented in 2008/2009 in Kuwait, Oman, Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates (UAE), was used. Uptake of mammography and Pap smear was estimated for each country, followed by the examination of associations between screening and a range of socioeconomic variables. Levels of breast and cervical cancer screening uptake within recommended intervals in all countries were low. The percentages of women aged 40–75 years who had a mammogram were 4.9% in Saudi Arabia, 8.9% in Oman, 13.9% in the UAE and 14.6% in Kuwait. The percentages of women aged 25–49 years who had a Pap smear test were 7.6% in Saudi Arabia, 10.6% in Oman, 17.7% in Kuwait and 28.0% in the UAE. Marital status, wealth, education, nationality and place of residence are associated with screening uptake, with the lower educated, poor and unmarried having the lowest percentages of uptake. The four Gulf Cooperation Council countries need to set clear targets and increase the proportion of women who have regular breast and cervical cancer screening examinations. Health education campaigns and awareness programmes that are fully integrated into the health system are required to ensure women use services that are available to prevent breast and cervical cancers

Human Adrenocortical Remodeling Leading to Aldosterone-Producing Cell Cluster Generation

Background. The immunohistochemical detection of aldosterone synthase (CYP11B2) and steroid 11β-hydroxylase (CYP11B1) has enabled the identification of aldosterone-producing cell clusters (APCCs) in the subcapsular portion of the human adult adrenal cortex. We hypothesized that adrenals have layered zonation in early postnatal stages and are remodeled to possess APCCs over time. Purposes. To investigate changes in human adrenocortical zonation with age. Methods. We retrospectively analyzed adrenal tissues prepared from 33 autopsied patients aged between 0 and 50 years. They were immunostained for CYP11B2 and CYP11B1. The percentage of APCC areas over the whole adrenal area (AA/WAA, %) and the number of APCCs (NOA, APCCs/mm2) were calculated by four examiners. Average values were used in statistical analyses. Results. Adrenals under 11 years old had layered zona glomerulosa (ZG) and zona fasciculata (ZF) without apparent APCCs. Some adrenals had an unstained (CYP11B2/CYP11B1-negative) layer between ZG and ZF, resembling the rat undifferentiated cell zone. Average AA/WAA and NOA correlated with age, suggesting that APCC development is associated with aging. Possible APCC-to-APA transitional lesions were incidentally identified in two adult adrenals. Conclusions. The adrenal cortex with layered zonation remodels to possess APCCs over time. APCC generation may be associated with hypertension in adults

Time-Scale Analysis of Sovereign Bonds Market Co-Movement in the EU

We study co-movement of 10-year sovereign bond yields of 11 EU countries. Our analysis is focused mainly on changes of co-movement in the crisis period, especially near two significant dates - the fall of Lehman Brothers, September 15, 2008, and the announcement of increase of Greek's public deficit in October 20, 2009. We study co-movement dynamics using wavelet analysis, it allows us to observe how co-movement changes across scales, which can be interpreted as investment horizons, and through time. We divide the countries into three groups; the Core of the Eurozone, the Periphery of the Eurozone and the states outside the Eurozone. Results indicate that co-movement considerably decreased in the crisis period for all countries pairs, however there are significant differences among the groups. Furthermore, we demonstrate that co-movement of bond yields significantly varies across scales

An investigation of the robustness of policy rules under adaptive learning and rational expectations

EThOS - Electronic Theses Online ServiceGBUnited Kingdo