A heart failure phenotype stratified model for predicting 1-year mortality in patients admitted with acute heart failure:results from an individual participant data meta-analysis of four prospective European cohorts

Background Prognostic models developed in general cohorts with a mixture of heart failure (HF) phenotypes, though more widely applicable, are also likely to yield larger prediction errors in settings where the HF phenotypes have substantially different baseline mortality rates or different predictor-outcome associations. This study sought to use individual participant data meta-analysis to develop an HF phenotype stratified model for predicting 1-year mortality in patients admitted with acute HF. Methods Four prospective European cohorts were used to develop an HF phenotype stratified model. Cox model with two rounds of backward elimination was used to derive the prognostic index. Weibull model was used to obtain the baseline hazard functions. The internal-external cross-validation (IECV) approach was used to evaluate the generalizability of the developed model in terms of discrimination and calibration. Results 3577 acute HF patients were included, of which 2368 were classified as having HF with reduced ejection fraction (EF) (HFrEF; EF < 40%), 588 as having HF with midrange EF (HFmrEF; EF 40-49%), and 621 as having HF with preserved EF (HFpEF; EF >= 50%). A total of 11 readily available variables built up the prognostic index. For four of these predictor variables, namely systolic blood pressure, serum creatinine, myocardial infarction, and diabetes, the effect differed across the three HF phenotypes. With a weighted IECV-adjusted AUC of 0.79 (0.74-0.83) for HFrEF, 0.74 (0.70-0.79) for HFmrEF, and 0.74 (0.71-0.77) for HFpEF, the model showed excellent discrimination. Moreover, there was a good agreement between the average observed and predicted 1-year mortality risks, especially after recalibration of the baseline mortality risks. Conclusions Our HF phenotype stratified model showed excellent generalizability across four European cohorts and may provide a useful tool in HF phenotype-specific clinical decision-making

Persistently elevated levels of sST2 after acute coronary syndrome are associated with recurrent cardiac events

Purpose Higher soluble ST2 (sST2) levels at admission are associated with adverse outcome in acute coronary syndrome (ACS) patients. We studied the dynamics of sST2 over time in post-ACS patients prior to a recurrent ACS or cardiac death. Methods We used the BIOMArCS case cohort, consisting of 187 patients who underwent serial blood sampling during one-year follow-up post-ACS. sST2 was batch-wise quantified after completion of follow-up in a median of 8 (IQR: 5-11) samples per patient. Joint modelling was used to investigate the association between longitudinally measured sST2 and the endpoint, adjusted for gender, GRACE risk score and history of cardiovascular diseases. Results Median age was 64 years and 79% were men. The 36 endpoint patients had systematically higher sST2 levels than those that remained endpoint free (mean value 29.6 ng/ml versus 33.7 ng/ml, p-value 0.052). The adjusted hazard ratio for the endpoint per standard deviation increase of sST2 was 1.64 (95% confidence interval: 1.09-2.34; p = 0.019) at any time point. We could not identify a steady or sudden increase of sST2 in the run-up to the combined endpoint. Conclusion Asymptomatic post-ACS patients with persistently higher sST2 levels are at higher risk of recurrent ACS or cardiac death during one-year follow-up

Determinants of quality of life in acute heart failure patients with and without comorbidities:a prospective, observational study

AIMS: The relation between non-cardiac comorbidities and health-related quality of life (HRQoL) in patients with heart failure (HF) has been studied to a limited extent. To investigate the HRQoL and their determinants among HF patients with and without comorbidities. METHODS AND RESULTS: TRIUMPH (TRanslational Initiative on Unique and novel strategies for Management of Patients with Heart failure) is a Dutch prospective, multicentre study enrolling 496 acute HF patients between 2009 and 2014. We included 334 patients who had completed the HRQoL questionnaires at baseline. The HRQoL was measured by the Kansas City Cardiomyopathy Questionnaire (KCCQ) en EuroQuality-of-life five Dimensions (EQ-5D). Comorbidity was defined as having a history of at least one of the following comorbidities: chronic kidney disease, diabetes mellitus, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), and/or cerebrovascular accident. Patients with comorbidity (n = 205, 61%) had lower scores on the physical limitation scale and clinical summary score of the KCCQ (P = 0.03 and P = 0.01, respectively). Female sex, COPD, previous HF, increasing body mass index (BMI), elevated N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), high systolic blood pressure, and the presence of anxiety and/or depression negatively influenced the HRQoL among HF patients with comorbidity. Besides anxiety and depression, we hardly found any other determinant of HRQoL in patients without comorbidity. CONCLUSION: Heart failure patients without comorbidity had better HRQoL than patients with comorbidity. Sex, previous HF, BMI, COPD, systolic blood pressure, NT-proBNP levels, and also anxiety and depression were determinants of HRQoL in patients with comorbidity. In those without comorbidity, apart from anxiety and depression, no further determinants of HRQoL were found

Renal function and anemia in relation to short- and long-term prognosis of patients with acute heart failure in the period 1985-2008: A clinical cohort study

Background Renal dysfunction and anaemia are common in patients with acute heart failure (HF). It is not known whether their combined presence has additive prognostic value. We investigated their prognostic value separately and in combination, on prognosis in acute HF patients. Furthermore, we examined whether the improvement in prognosis was comparable between patients with and without renal dysfunction. Methods and results This prospective registry includes 1783 patients admitted to the (Intensive) Coronary Care Unit for acute HF in the period of 1985–2008. The outcome measure was the composite of all-cause mortality, heart transplantation and left ventricular assist device implantation. In patients without renal dysfunction, anemia was associated with worse 30-day outcome (HR 2.91; [95% CI 1.69–5.00]), but not with 10-year outcome (HR 1.13 [95% CI 0.93–1.37]). On the contrary, anemia was found to influence prognosis in patients with renal dysfunction, both at 30 days (HR 1.93 [95% CI 1.33–2.80]) and at 10 years (HR 1.27 [95% CI 1.10–1.47]). Over time, the 10-year survival rate improved in patients with preserved renal function (HR 0.73 [95% CI 0.55–0.97]), but not in patients with renal dysfunction. Conclusion The long-term prognosis of acute HF patients with a preserved renal function was found to have improved significantly. However, the prognosis of patients with renal dysfunction did not change. Anemia was a strong prognosticator for short-term outcome in all patients. In patients with renal dysfunction, anemia was also associated with impaired long-term prognosis

High-sensitivity Troponin T in relation to coronary plaque characteristics in patients with stable coronary artery disease; results of the ATHEROREMO-IVUS study

AbstractBackground and aimsTo assess the relationship between the extent and phenotype of coronary atherosclerosis, as assessed by in-vivo grayscale and radiofrequency intravascular ultrasound (IVUS), and circulating Troponin levels in patients with established stable coronary artery disease (CAD).MethodsIn this single-center, cross-sectional analysis, high-sensitivity Troponin T (hsTnT) was measured and IVUS was performed in a predefined non-stenotic segment of a non-culprit coronary artery in 231 patients with stable CAD undergoing elective angiography.ResultsHsTnT was detectable (>3 pg/mL) in 212 patients (92%) and a concentration above 14 pg/mL was observed in 19.5%. Normalised segmental plaque volumes were positively associated with hsTnT levels (25.0 mm3 increase in segmental plaque volume per SD increase in ln-transformed hsTnT, 95% CI: 6.0–44.0, p = 0.010). Higher hsTnT levels were measured in patients with a virtual histology derived thin-cap fibroatheroma (VH-TCFA, adj. odds ratio for presence of VH-TCFA = 1.52 per SD increase in ln-transformed hsTnT, 95% CI: 1.10–2.11, p = 0.011). Patients with a VH-TCFA had a 2-fold increased prevalence of hsTnT concentration ≥14 pg/mL (adj. OR 2.35, 95% CI: 1.12–4.91, p = 0.024). In addition, a 3-fold increased prevalence of hsTnT concentration ≥14 pg/mL was observed in patients with a VH-TCFA with a lesional plaque volume higher than the median (adj. OR 3.36, 95% CI: 1.44–7.84, p = 0.005).ConclusionsSegmental plaque volume and presence of VH-TCFA lesions are associated with higher circulating hsTnT concentrations in stable CAD patients. Subclinical plaque rupture or erosion and distal embolisation may be hypothesized as a potential pathophysiological mechanism with respect to Troponin elevation and its relation with adverse outcome in this patient population

Temporal patterns of macrophage- and neutrophil-related markers are associated with clinical outcome in heart failure patients

Aims: Evidence on the association of macrophage- and neutrophil-related blood biomarkers with clinical outcome in heart failure patients is limited, and, with the exception of C-reactive protein, no data exist on their temporal evolution. We aimed to investigate whether temporal patterns of these biomarkers are related to clinical outcome in patients with stable chronic heart failure (CHF). Methods and Results: In 263 patients with CHF, we performed serial plasma measurements of scavenger receptor cysteine-rich type 1 protein M130 (CD163), tartrate-resistant acid phosphatase type 5 (TRAP), granulins (GRN), spondin-1 (SPON1), peptidoglycan recognition protein 1 (PGLYRP1), and tissue factor pathway inhibitor (TFPI). The Cardiovascular Panel III (Olink Proteomics AB, Uppsala, Sweden) was used. During 2.2 years of follow-up, we collected 1984 samples before the occurrence of the composite primary endpoint (PE) or censoring. For efficiency, we selected 567 samples for the measurements (all baseline samples, the last two samples preceding the PE, and the last sample before censoring in event-free patients). The relationship between repeatedly measured biomarker levels and the PE was evaluated by joint models. Mean (±standard deviation) age was 67 ± 13 years; 189 (72%) were men; left ventricular ejection fraction (%) was 32 ± 11. During follow-up, 70 (27%) patients experienced the PE. Serially measured biomarkers predicted the PE in a multivariable model adjusted for baseline clinical characteristics [hazard ratio (95% confidence interval) per 1-standard deviation change in biomarker]: CD163 [2.07(1.47–2.98), P < 0.001], TRAP [0.62 (0.43–0.90), P = 0.009], GRN [2.46 (1.64–3.84), P < 0.001], SPON1 [3.94 (2.50–6.50), P < 0.001], and PGLYRP1 [1.62 (1.14–2.31), P = 0.006]. Conclusions: Changes in plasma levels of CD163, TRAP, GRN, SPON1, and PGLYRP1 precede adverse cardiovascular events in patients with CHF

SYNTAX score II predicts long-term mortality in patients with one- or two-vessel disease

Objective SYNTAX score II (SSII) is a long-term mortality prediction model to guide the decision making of the heart-team between coronary artery bypass grafting or percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) in patients with left main or three-vessel coronary artery disease. This study aims to investigate the long-term predictive value of SSII for all-cause mortality in patients with one- or two-vessel disease undergoing PCI. Methods A total of 628 patients (76% men, mean age: 61±10 years) undergoing PCI due to stable angina pectoris (43%) or acute coronary syndrome (57%), included between January 2008 and June 2013, were eligible for the current study. SSII was calculated using the original SYNTAX score website (www.syntaxscore.com). Cox regression analysis was used to assess the association between continuous SSII and long-term all-cause mortality. The area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve was used to assess the performance of SSII. Results SSII ranged from 6.6 to 58.2 (median: 20.4, interquartile range: 16.1–26.8). In multivariable analysis, SSII proved to be an independent significant predictor for 4.5-year mortality (hazard ratio per point increase: 1.10; 95% confidence interval: 1.07–1.13; p<0.001). In terms of discrimination, SSII had a concordance index of 0.77. Conclusion In addition to its established value in patients with left main and three-vessel disease, SSII may also predict long-term mortality in PCI-treated patients with one- or two-vessel disease

Renal tubular damage and worsening renal function in chronic heart failure:Clinical determinants and relation to prognosis (Bio-SHiFT study)

Background It is uncertain that chronic heart failure (CHF) patients are susceptible to renal tubular damage with that of worsening renal function (WRF) preceding clinical outcomes. Hypothesis Changes in tubular damage biomarkers are stronger predictors of subsequent clinical events than changes in creatinine (Cr), and both have different clinical determinants. Methods During 2.2 years, we repeatedly simultaneously collected a median of 9 blood and 8 urine samples per patient in 263 CHF patients. We determined the slopes (rates of change) of the biomarker trajectories for plasma (Cr) and urinary tubular damage biomarkers N-acetyl-beta-d-glucosaminidase (NAG), and kidney-injury-molecule (KIM)-1. The degree of tubular injury was ranked according to NAG and KIM-1 slopes: increase in neither, increase in either, or increase in both; WRF was defined as increasing Cr slope. The composite endpoint comprised HF-hospitalization, cardiac death, left ventricular assist device placement, and heart transplantation. Results Higher baseline NT-proBNP and lower eGFR predicted more severe tubular damage (adjusted odds ratio, adj. OR [95%CI, 95% confidence interval] per doubling NT-proBNP: 1.26 [1.07-1.49]; per 10 mL/min/1.73 m(2) eGFR decrease 1.16 [1.03-1.31]). Higher loop diuretic doses, lower aldosterone antagonist doses, and higher eGFR predicted WRF (furosemide per 40 mg increase: 1.32 [1.08-1.62]; spironolactone per 25 mg decrease: 1.76 [1.07-2.89]; per 10 mL/min/1.73 m(2) eGFR increase: 1.40 [1.20-1.63]). WRF and higher rank of tubular injury individually entailed higher risk of the composite endpoint (adjusted hazard ratios, adj. HR [95%CI]: WRF 1.9 [1.1-3.4], tubular 8.4 [2.6-27.9]; when combined risk was highest 15.0 [2.0-111.0]). Conclusion Slopes of tubular damage and WRF biomarkers had different clinical determinants. Both predicted clinical outcome, but this association was stronger for tubular injury. Prognostic effects of both appeared independent and additive

IGF-1 is not related to long-term outcome in hyperglycemic acute coronary syndrome patients

PURPOSE: Insulin-like growth factor-1 (IGF-1) has been associated with both protective and detrimental effects on the development of ischemic heart disease. The relationship between IGF-1 levels and major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) in acute coronary syndrome (ACS) patients remains unclear. This study aimed to investigate the relationship between IGF-1 admission levels in hyperglycemic ACS patients and: (1) MACE over a 5 years follow-up, (2) type 2 diabetes at discharge, and (3) post-ACS myocardial infarct size and dysfunction. METHODS: This was a post hoc analysis of the BIOMArCS-2 randomized controlled trial. From July 2008 to February 2012, 276 ACS patients with admission plasma glucose level between 140 and 288 mg/dL were included. Records of the composite of all-cause mortality and recurrent non-fatal myocardial infarction were obtained during 5 years follow-up. Venous blood samples were collected on admission. IGF-1 was measured batchwise after study completion. Oral glucose tolerance test was performed to diagnose type 2 diabetes, whereas infarct size and left ventricular function were assessed by myocardial perfusion scintigraphy (MPS) imaging, 6 weeks post-ACS. RESULTS: Cumulative incidence of MACE was 24% at 5 years follow-up. IGF-1 was not independently associated with MACE (HR:1.00 (95%CI:0.99–1.00), p = 0.29). Seventy-eight patients (28%) had type 2 diabetes at discharge, and the highest quartile of IGF-1 levels was associated with the lowest incidence of diabetes (HR:0.40 (95%CI:0.17–0.95), p = 0.037). IGF-1 levels were not associated with post-ACS myocardial infarct size and dysfunction. CONCLUSIONS: IGF-1 carries potential for predicting type 2 diabetes, rather than long-term cardiovascular outcomes and post-ACS myocardial infarct size and dysfunction, in hyperglycemic ACS patients

Evolution of renal function and predictive value of serial renal assessments among patients with acute coronary syndrome:BIOMArCS study

Background: Impaired renal function predicts mortality in acute coronary syndrome (ACS), but its evolution immediately following index ACS and preceding next ACS has not been described in detail. We aimed to describe this evolution using serial measurements of creatinine, glomerular filtration rate [eGFRCr] and cystatin C [CysC]. Methods: From 844 ACS patients included in the BIOMArCS study, we analysed patient-specific longitudinal marker trajectories from the case-cohort of 187 patients to determine the risk of the endpoint (cardiovascular death or hospitalization for recurrent non-fatal ACS) during 1-year follow-up. Study included only patients with eGFRCr ≥ 30 ml/min/1.73 m2. Survival analyses were adjusted for GRACE risk score and based on data >30 days after the index ACS (mean of 8 sample per patient). Results: Mean age was 63 years, 79% were men, 43% had STEMI, and 67% were in eGFR stages 2–3. During hospitalization for index ACS (median [IQR] duration: 5 (3–7) days), CysC levels indicated deterioration of renal function earlier than creatinine did (CysC peaked on day 3, versus day 6 for creatinine), and both stabilized after two weeks. Higher CysC levels, but not creatinine, predicted the endpoint independently of the GRACE score within the first year after index ACS (adjusted HR [95% CI] per 1SD increase: 1.68 [1.03–2.74]). Conclusion: Immediately following index ACS, plasma CysC levels deteriorate earlier than creatinine-based indices do, but neither marker stabilizes during hospitalization but on average two weeks after ACS. Serially measured CysC levels predict mortality or recurrence of ACS during 1-year follow-up independently of patients' GRACE risk score