Closed-form expression for finite predictor coefficients of multivariate ARMA processes

We derive a closed-form expression for the finite predictor coefficients of multivariate ARMA (autoregressive moving-average) processes. The expression is given in terms of several explicit matrices that are of fixed sizes independent of the number of observations. The significance of the expression is that it provides us with a linear-time algorithm to compute the finite predictor coefficients. In the proof of the expression, a correspondence result between two relevant matrix-valued outer functions plays a key role. We apply the expression to determine the asymptotic behavior of a sum that appears in the autoregressive model fitting and the autoregressive sieve bootstrap. The results are new even for univariate ARMA processes.Comment: Journal of Multivariate Analysis, to appea

Optimal long term investment model with memory

We consider a financial market model driven by an R^n-valued Gaussian process with stationary increments which is different from Brownian motion. This driving noise process consists of $n$ independent components, and each component has memory described by two parameters. For this market model, we explicitly solve optimal investment problems. These include (i) Merton's portfolio optimization problem; (ii) the maximization of growth rate of expected utility of wealth over the infinite horizon; (iii) the maximization of the large deviation probability that the wealth grows at a higher rate than a given benchmark. The estimation of paremeters is also considered.Comment: 25 pages, 3 figures. To appear in Applied Mathematics and Optimizatio

Baxter's inequality for fractional Brownian motion-type processes with Hurst index less than 1/2

The aim of this paper is to prove an analogue of Baxter's inequality for fractional Brownian motion-type processes with Hurst index less than 1/2. This inequality is concerned with the norm estimate of the difference between finite- and infinite-past predictor coefficients.Comment: 7 page

Binary market models with memory

We construct a binary market model with memory that approximates a continuous-time market model driven by a Gaussian process equivalent to Brownian motion. We give a sufficient conditions for the binary market to be arbitrage-free. In a case when arbitrage opportunities exist, we present the rate at which the arbitrage probability tends to zero as the number of periods goes to infinity.Comment: 13 page

Applications of a finite-dimensional duality principle to some prediction problems

Some of the most important results in prediction theory and time series analysis when finitely many values are removed from or added to its infinite past have been obtained using difficult and diverse techniques ranging from duality in Hilbert spaces of analytic functions (Nakazi, 1984) to linear regression in statistics (Box and Tiao, 1975). We unify these results via a finite-dimensional duality lemma and elementary ideas from the linear algebra. The approach reveals the inherent finite-dimensional character of many difficult prediction problems, the role of duality and biorthogonality for a finite set of random variables. The lemma is particularly useful when the number of missing values is small, like one or two, as in the case of Kolmogorov and Nakazi prediction problems. The stationarity of the underlying process is not a requirement. It opens up the possibility of extending such results to nonstationary processes.Comment: 15 page

The intersection of past and future for multivariate stationary processes

We consider an intersection of past and future property of multivariate stationary processes which is the key to deriving various representation theorems for their linear predictor coefficient matrices. We extend useful spectral characterizations for this property from univariate processes to multivariate processes.Comment: 8 page