Bayesian spatial and temporal epidemiology of non-communicable diseases and mortality

Spatial epidemiology combines spatial statistical modelling and disease epidemiology for studying geographic variation in mortality and morbidity. The effects of putative risk factors may be examined using ecological regression models. On the other hand, age-period-cohort models can be used to study the variation of mortality and morbidity through time. Bayesian hierarchical statistical models offer a flexible framework for these studies and enable the estimation of uncertainties in the results. The models are usually estimated using computer-intensive Markov chain Monte Carlo simulations. In this dissertation the first four publications present practical epidemiological studies on geographic variation in non-communicable diseases in Finland. In the last publication we study the long-time variation in all-cause mortality in several European countries. New statistical models are developed for these studies. This work provides new epidemiological information on the geographic variation of acute myocardial infarctions (AMI), ischaemic stroke and parkinsonism in Finland. An extended model for studying shared and disease specific geographic variation is presented using data on AMI and ischaemic stroke incidence. Existing results on the inverse association of water hardness and AMI are refined. New models for interpolation of geochemical data with non-detected values are presented with case studies using real data. Finally, the Bayesian age-period-cohort model is extended with versatile interactions and better prediction ability. The model is then used to study long-term variation in mortality in Europe

Informative Bayesian Neural Network Priors for Weak Signals

Funding Information: ∗This work was supported by the Academy of Finland (Flagship programme: Finnish Center for Artificial Intelligence, FCAI, grants 319264, 292334, 286607, 294015, 336033, 315896, 341763), and EU Horizon 2020 (INTERVENE, grant no. 101016775). We also acknowledge the computational resources provided by the Aalto Science-IT Project from Computer Science IT. †Helsinki Institute for Information Technology HIIT, Department of Computer Science, Aalto University, Finland, [email protected] ‡Finnish Institute for Health and Welfare (THL), Finland §Institute for Molecular Medicine Finland, FIMM-HiLIFE, Helsinki, Finland ¶Department of Computer Science, University of Manchester, UK ‖Equal contribution. Funding Information: This work was supported by the Academy of Finland (Flagship programme: Finnish Center for Artificial Intelligence, FCAI, grants 319264, 292334, 286607, 294015, 336033, 315896, 341763), and EU Horizon 2020 (INTERVENE, grant no. 101016775). We also acknowledge the computational resources provided by the Aalto Science-IT Project from Computer Science IT. Publisher Copyright: © 2022 International Society for Bayesian AnalysisEncoding domain knowledge into the prior over the high-dimensional weight space of a neural network is challenging but essential in applications with limited data and weak signals. Two types of domain knowledge are commonly available in scientific applications: 1. feature sparsity (fraction of features deemed relevant); 2. signal-to-noise ratio, quantified, for instance, as the proportion of variance explained. We show how to encode both types of domain knowledge into the widely used Gaussian scale mixture priors with Automatic Relevance Determination. Specifically, we propose a new joint prior over the local (i.e., feature-specific) scale parameters that encodes knowledge about feature sparsity, and a Stein gradient optimization to tune the hyperparameters in such a way that the distribution induced on the model’s proportion of variance explained matches the prior distribution. We show empirically that the new prior improves prediction accuracy compared to existing neural network priors on publicly available datasets and in a genetics application where signals are weak and sparse, often outperforming even computationally intensive cross-validation for hyperparameter tuning.Peer reviewe

Genetic support for the causal role of insulin in coronary heart disease

Epidemiological studies have identified several traits associated with CHD, but few of these have been shown to be causal risk factors and thus suitable targets for treatment. Our aim was to evaluate the causal role of a large set of known CHD risk factors using single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) as instrumental variables.Peer reviewe

Genome-Wide Association Study Implicates Atrial Natriuretic Peptide Rather Than B-Type Natriuretic Peptide in the Regulation of Blood Pressure in the General Population

Background Cardiomyocytes secrete atrial natriuretic peptide (ANP) and B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) in response to mechanical stretching, making them useful clinical biomarkers of cardiac stress. Both human and animal studies indicate a role for ANP as a regulator of blood pressure with conflicting results for BNP. Methods and Results We used genome-wide association analysis (n=6296) to study the effects of genetic variants on circulating natriuretic peptide concentrations and compared the impact of natriuretic peptide-associated genetic variants on blood pressure (n=27059). Eight independent genetic variants in 2 known (NPPA-NPPB and POC1B-GALNT4) and 1 novel locus (PPP3CC) associated with midregional proANP (MR-proANP), BNP, aminoterminal proBNP (NT-proBNP), or BNP:NT-proBNP ratio. The NPPA-NPPB locus containing the adjacent genes encoding ANP and BNP harbored 4 independent cis variants with effects specific to either midregional proANP or BNP and a rare missense single nucleotide polymorphism in NT-proBNP seriously altering its measurement. Variants near the calcineurin catalytic subunit gamma gene PPP3CC and the polypeptide N-acetylgalactosaminyltransferase 4 gene GALNT4 associated with BNP:NT-proBNP ratio but not with BNP or midregional proANP, suggesting effects on the post-translational regulation of proBNP. Out of the 8 individual variants, only those correlated with midregional proANP had a statistically significant albeit weak impact on blood pressure. The combined effect of these 3 single nucleotide polymorphisms also associated with hypertension risk (P=8.2x10(-4)). Conclusions Common genetic differences affecting the circulating concentration of ANP associated with blood pressure, whereas those affecting BNP did not, highlighting the blood pressure-lowering effect of ANP in the general population.Peer reviewe

Genomic prediction of coronary heart disease

Aims Genetics plays an important role in coronary heart disease (CHD) but the clinical utility of genomic risk scores (GRSs) relative to clinical risk scores, such as the Framingham Risk Score (FRS), is unclear. Our aim was to construct and externally validate a CHD GRS, in terms of lifetime CHD risk and relative to traditional clinical risk scores. Methods and results We generated a GRS of 49 310 SNPs based on a CARDIoGRAMplusC4D Consortium meta-analysis of CHD, then independently tested it using five prospective population cohorts (three FINRISK cohorts, combined n = 12 676, 757 incident CHD events; two Framingham Heart Study cohorts (FHS), combined n = 3406, 587 incident CHD events). The GRS was associated with incident CHD (FINRISK HR = 1.74, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.61-1.86 per S.D. of GRS; Framingham HR = 1.28, 95% CI 1.18-1.38), and was largely unchanged by adjustment for known risk factors, including family history. Integration of the GRS with the FRS or ACC/AHA13 scores improved the 10 years risk prediction (meta-analysis C-index: +1.5-1.6%, P = 60 years old (meta-analysis C-index: +4.6-5.1%, P <0.001). Importantly, the GRS captured substantially different trajectories of absolute risk, with men in the top 20% of attaining 10% cumulative CHD risk 12-18 y earlier than those in the bottom 20%. High genomic risk was partially compensated for by low systolic blood pressure, low cholesterol level, and non-smoking. Conclusions A GRS based on a large number of SNPs improves CHD risk prediction and encodes different trajectories of lifetime risk not captured by traditional clinical risk scores.Peer reviewe

Distribution and Medical Impact of Loss-of-Function Variants in the Finnish Founder Population

Exome sequencing studies in complex diseases are challenged by the allelic heterogeneity, large number and modest effect sizes of associated variants on disease risk and the presence of large numbers of neutral variants, even in phenotypically relevant genes. Isolated populations with recent bottlenecks offer advantages for studying rare variants in complex diseases as they have deleterious variants that are present at higher frequencies as well as a substantial reduction in rare neutral variation. To explore the potential of the Finnish founder population for studying low-frequency (0.5-5%) variants in complex diseases, we compared exome sequence data on 3,000 Finns to the same number of non-Finnish Europeans and discovered that, despite having fewer variable sites overall, the average Finn has more low-frequency loss-of-function variants and complete gene knockouts. We then used several well-characterized Finnish population cohorts to study the phenotypic effects of 83 enriched loss-of-function variants across 60 phenotypes in 36,262 Finns. Using a deep set of quantitative traits collected on these cohorts, we show 5 associations (p<5×10⁻⁸) including splice variants in LPA that lowered plasma lipoprotein(a) levels (P = 1.5×10⁻¹¹⁷). Through accessing the national medical records of these participants, we evaluate the LPA finding via Mendelian randomization and confirm that these splice variants confer protection from cardiovascular disease (OR = 0.84, P = 3×10⁻⁴), demonstrating for the first time the correlation between very low levels of LPA in humans with potential therapeutic implications for cardiovascular diseases. More generally, this study articulates substantial advantages for studying the role of rare variation in complex phenotypes in founder populations like the Finns and by combining a unique population genetic history with data from large population cohorts and centralized research access to National Health RegistersPublic Library of Science open acces

Genome-Wide Association Study Implicates Atrial Natriuretic Peptide Rather Than B-Type Natriuretic Peptide in the Regulation of Blood Pressure in the General Population

Background Cardiomyocytes secrete atrial natriuretic peptide (ANP) and B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) in response to mechanical stretching, making them useful clinical biomarkers of cardiac stress. Both human and animal studies indicate a role for ANP as a regulator of blood pressure with conflicting results for BNP. Methods and Results We used genome-wide association analysis (n=6296) to study the effects of genetic variants on circulating natriuretic peptide concentrations and compared the impact of natriuretic peptide-associated genetic variants on blood pressure (n=27059). Eight independent genetic variants in 2 known (NPPA-NPPB and POC1B-GALNT4) and 1 novel locus (PPP3CC) associated with midregional proANP (MR-proANP), BNP, aminoterminal proBNP (NT-proBNP), or BNP:NT-proBNP ratio. The NPPA-NPPB locus containing the adjacent genes encoding ANP and BNP harbored 4 independent cis variants with effects specific to either midregional proANP or BNP and a rare missense single nucleotide polymorphism in NT-proBNP seriously altering its measurement. Variants near the calcineurin catalytic subunit gamma gene PPP3CC and the polypeptide N-acetylgalactosaminyltransferase 4 gene GALNT4 associated with BNP:NT-proBNP ratio but not with BNP or midregional proANP, suggesting effects on the post-translational regulation of proBNP. Out of the 8 individual variants, only those correlated with midregional proANP had a statistically significant albeit weak impact on blood pressure. The combined effect of these 3 single nucleotide polymorphisms also associated with hypertension risk (P=8.2x10(-4)). Conclusions Common genetic differences affecting the circulating concentration of ANP associated with blood pressure, whereas those affecting BNP did not, highlighting the blood pressure-lowering effect of ANP in the general population.Peer reviewe

Modelling spatial patterns in host-associated microbial communities

Microbial communities exhibit spatial structure at different scales, due to constant interactions with their environment and dispersal limitation. While this spatial structure is often considered in studies focusing on free-living environmental communities, it has received less attention in the context of host-associated microbial communities or microbiota. The wider adoption of methods accounting for spatial variation in these communities will help to address open questions in basic microbial ecology as well as realize the full potential of microbiome-aided medicine. Here, we first overview known factors affecting the composition of microbiota across diverse host types and at different scales, with a focus on the human gut as one of the most actively studied microbiota. We outline a number of topical open questions in the field related to spatial variation and patterns. We then review the existing methodology for the spatial modelling of microbiota. We suggest that methodology from related fields, such as systems biology and macro-organismal ecology, could be adapted to obtain more accurate models of spatial structure. We further posit that methodological developments in the spatial modelling and analysis of microbiota could in turn broadly benefit theoretical and applied ecology and contribute to the development of novel industrial and clinical applications.Peer reviewe

Gene-gene interaction detection with deep learning

The extent to which genetic interactions affect observed phenotypes is generally unknown because current interaction detection approaches only consider simple interactions between top SNPs of genes. We introduce an open-source framework for increasing the power of interaction detection by considering all SNPs within a selected set of genes and complex interactions between them, beyond only the currently considered multiplicative relationships. In brief, the relation between SNPs and a phenotype is captured by a neural network, and the interactions are quantified by Shapley scores between hidden nodes, which are gene representations that optimally combine information from the corresponding SNPs. Additionally, we design a permutation procedure tailored for neural networks to assess the significance of interactions, which outperformed existing alternatives on simulated datasets with complex interactions, and in a cholesterol study on the UK Biobank it detected nine interactions which replicated on an independent FINRISK dataset.An open-source framework combines deep learning and permutations of gene interaction neural networks to detect complex gene-gene interactions and their significance in contributions to phenotypes.Peer reviewe

Effects of hormonal contraception on systemic metabolism : cross-sectional and longitudinal evidence

Background: Hormonal contraception is commonly used worldwide, but its systemic effects across lipoprotein subclasses, fatty acids, circulating metabolites and cytokines remain poorly understood. Methods: A comprehensive molecular profile (75 metabolic measures and 37 cytokines) was measured for up to 5841 women (age range 24-49 years) from three population-based cohorts. Women using combined oral contraceptive pills (COCPs) or progestin-only contraceptives (POCs) were compared with those who did not use hormonal contraception. Metabolomics profiles were reassessed for 869 women after 6 years to uncover the metabolic effects of starting, stopping and persistently using hormonal contraception. Results: The comprehensive molecular profiling allowed multiple new findings on the metabolic associations with the use of COCPs. They were positively associated with lipoprotein subclasses, including all high-density lipoprotein (HDL) subclasses. The associations with fatty acids and amino acids were strong and variable in direction. COCP use was negatively associated with albumin and positively associated with creatinine and inflammatory markers, including glycoprotein acetyls and several growth factors and interleukins. Our findings also confirmed previous results e.g. for increased circulating triglycerides and HDL cholesterol. Starting COCPs caused similar metabolic changes to those observed cross-sectionally: the changes were maintained in consistent users and normalized in those who stopped using. In contrast, POCs were only weakly associated with metabolic and inflammatory markers. Results were consistent across all cohorts and for different COCP preparations and different types of POC delivery. Conclusions: Use of COCPs causes widespread metabolic and inflammatory effects. However, persistent use does not appear to accumulate the effects over time and the metabolic perturbations are reversed upon discontinuation. POCs have little effect on systemic metabolism and inflammation.Peer reviewe