Causes of severe pneumonia requiring hospital admission in children without HIV infection from Africa and Asia: the PERCH multi-country case-control study

Background Pneumonia is the leading cause of death among children younger than 5 years. In this study, we estimated causes of pneumonia in young African and Asian children, using novel analytical methods applied to clinical and microbiological findings. Methods We did a multi-site, international case-control study in nine study sites in seven countries: Bangladesh, The Gambia, Kenya, Mali, South Africa, Thailand, and Zambia. All sites enrolled in the study for 24 months. Cases were children aged 1–59 months admitted to hospital with severe pneumonia. Controls were age-group-matched children randomly selected from communities surrounding study sites. Nasopharyngeal and oropharyngeal (NP-OP), urine, blood, induced sputum, lung aspirate, pleural fluid, and gastric aspirates were tested with cultures, multiplex PCR, or both. Primary analyses were restricted to cases without HIV infection and with abnormal chest x-rays and to controls without HIV infection. We applied a Bayesian, partial latent class analysis to estimate probabilities of aetiological agents at the individual and population level, incorporating case and control data. Findings Between Aug 15, 2011, and Jan 30, 2014, we enrolled 4232 cases and 5119 community controls. The primary analysis group was comprised of 1769 (41·8% of 4232) cases without HIV infection and with positive chest x-rays and 5102 (99·7% of 5119) community controls without HIV infection. Wheezing was present in 555 (31·7%) of 1752 cases (range by site 10·6–97·3%). 30-day case-fatality ratio was 6·4% (114 of 1769 cases). Blood cultures were positive in 56 (3·2%) of 1749 cases, and Streptococcus pneumoniae was the most common bacteria isolated (19 [33·9%] of 56). Almost all cases (98·9%) and controls (98·0%) had at least one pathogen detected by PCR in the NP-OP specimen. The detection of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), parainfluenza virus, human metapneumovirus, influenza virus, S pneumoniae, Haemophilus influenzae type b (Hib), H influenzae non-type b, and Pneumocystis jirovecii in NP-OP specimens was associated with case status. The aetiology analysis estimated that viruses accounted for 61·4% (95% credible interval [CrI] 57·3–65·6) of causes, whereas bacteria accounted for 27·3% (23·3–31·6) and Mycobacterium tuberculosis for 5·9% (3·9–8·3). Viruses were less common (54·5%, 95% CrI 47·4–61·5 vs 68·0%, 62·7–72·7) and bacteria more common (33·7%, 27·2–40·8 vs 22·8%, 18·3–27·6) in very severe pneumonia cases than in severe cases. RSV had the greatest aetiological fraction (31·1%, 95% CrI 28·4–34·2) of all pathogens. Human rhinovirus, human metapneumovirus A or B, human parainfluenza virus, S pneumoniae, M tuberculosis, and H influenzae each accounted for 5% or more of the aetiological distribution. We observed differences in aetiological fraction by age for Bordetella pertussis, parainfluenza types 1 and 3, parechovirus–enterovirus, P jirovecii, RSV, rhinovirus, Staphylococcus aureus, and S pneumoniae, and differences by severity for RSV, S aureus, S pneumoniae, and parainfluenza type 3. The leading ten pathogens of each site accounted for 79% or more of the site's aetiological fraction. Interpretation In our study, a small set of pathogens accounted for most cases of pneumonia requiring hospital admission. Preventing and treating a subset of pathogens could substantially affect childhood pneumonia outcomes

Association of C-reactive protein with bacterial and respiratory syncytial virus-associated pneumonia among children aged <5 years in the PERCH study

Background. Lack of a gold standard for identifying bacterial and viral etiologies of pneumonia has limited evaluation of C-reactive protein (CRP) for identifying bacterial pneumonia. We evaluated the sensitivity and specificity of CRP for identifying bacterial vs respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) pneumonia in the Pneumonia Etiology Research for Child Health (PERCH) multicenter case-control study. Methods. We measured serum CRP levels in cases with World Health Organization-defined severe or very severe pneumonia and a subset of community controls. We evaluated the sensitivity and specificity of elevated CRP for "confirmed" bacterial pneumonia (positive blood culture or positive lung aspirate or pleural fluid culture or polymerase chain reaction [PCR]) compared to "RSV pneumonia" (nasopharyngeal/oropharyngeal or induced sputum PCR-positive without confirmed/suspected bacterial pneumonia). Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were constructed to assess the performance of elevated CRP in distinguishing these cases. Results. Among 601 human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-negative tested controls, 3% had CRP ≥40 mg/L. Among 119 HIVnegative cases with confirmed bacterial pneumonia, 77% had CRP ≥40 mg/L compared with 17% of 556 RSV pneumonia cases. The ROC analysis produced an area under the curve of 0.87, indicating very good discrimination; a cut-point of 37.1 mg/L best discriminated confirmed bacterial pneumonia (sensitivity 77%) from RSV pneumonia (specificity 82%). CRP ≥100 mg/L substantially improved specificity over CRP ≥40 mg/L, though at a loss to sensitivity. Conclusions. Elevated CRP was positively associated with confirmed bacterial pneumonia and negatively associated with RSV pneumonia in PERCH. CRP may be useful for distinguishing bacterial from RSV-associated pneumonia, although its role in discriminating against other respiratory viral-associated pneumonia needs further study

Costs and benefits of improving tuberculosis control: The case of Thailand

The study evaluates the economic costs and benefits of improving tuberculosis control interventions in Thailand. Provider costs are determined on the basis of marginal treatment costs for varying case numbers and estimates of the cost of required infrastructure changes. Indirect costs are calculated as income lost due to morbidity and premature mortality. An epidemiological model is used to calculate case numbers and mortality under current control conditions and a scenario of improved control. An improved control strategy initially leads to a higher number of detected cases. For longer projection periods, the epidemiological impact of curing a higher proportion of infectious sources results in lower case numbers than those expected without programme improvement. Model simulations show a reduction of total annual case numbers through improved control measures by an average 45% after a simulation period of 20 years. The corresponding societal savings in form of reduced indirect costs from the disease are U.S.$2.4 billion. Reductions in direct provider costs can be expected as a result of decreased numbers of detected cases for longer evaluation periods, as well as a lower proportion of multi-drug-resistant cases. The mean value of predicted savings is U.S.$8.3 million. Since this value is likely to be higher than the required investment in improved infrastructure, net savings can be expected. The result of an uncertainty analysis shows a wide range of potential additional costs or net savings with respect to direct provider costs. Indirect cost calculations show net savings for all parameter values.tuberculosis economics cost-benefit analysis Thailand

Pneumococcal colonization prevalence and density among Thai children with severe pneumonia and community controls.

BACKGROUND:Pneumococcal colonization prevalence and colonization density, which has been associated with invasive disease, can offer insight into local pneumococcal ecology and help inform vaccine policy discussions. METHODS:The Pneumonia Etiology Research for Child Health Project (PERCH), a multi-country case-control study, evaluated the etiology of hospitalized cases of severe and very severe pneumonia among children aged 1-59 months. The PERCH Thailand site enrolled children during January 2012-February 2014. We determined pneumococcal colonization prevalence and density, and serotype distribution of colonizing isolates. RESULTS:We enrolled 224 severe/very severe pneumonia cases and 659 community controls in Thailand. Compared to controls, cases had lower colonization prevalence (54.5% vs. 62.5%, p = 0.12) and lower median colonization density (42.1 vs. 210.2 x 103 copies/mL, p <0.0001); 42% of cases had documented antibiotic pretreatment vs. 0.8% of controls. In no sub-group of assessed cases did pneumococcal colonization density exceed the median for controls, including cases with no prior antibiotics (63.9x103 copies/mL), with consolidation on chest x-ray (76.5x103 copies/mL) or with pneumococcus detected in whole blood by PCR (9.3x103 copies/mL). Serotype distribution was similar among cases and controls, and a high percentage of colonizing isolates from cases and controls were serotypes included in PCV10 (70.0% and 61.8%, respectively) and PCV13 (76.7% and 67.9%, respectively). CONCLUSIONS:Pneumococcal colonization is common among children aged <5 years in Thailand. However, colonization density was not higher among children with severe pneumonia compared to controls. These results can inform discussions about PCV introduction and provide baseline data to monitor PCV impact after introduction in Thailand