An Improved Xin’anjiang Hydrological Model for Flood Simulation Coupling Snowmelt Runoff Module in Northwestern China

The Xin’anjiang hydrological model (XHM) is the practical tool for runoff simulation and flood forecasting in most regions in China, but it still presents some challenges when applied to Northwest China, where the river runoff mostly comes from high-temperature snowmelt, as the model lacks such a functional module. In this study, the improved XHM coupling snowmelt module is presented to complete the existing XHM for better suitability for flood simulation in areas dominated by snowmelt. The improved model includes four sub-models: evapotranspiration, runoff yield, runoff separation, and runoff routing, where the snowmelt runoff module is introduced in both the runoff yield and separation sub-models. The watershed is divided into two types, non-snow areas with lower altitudes and snow-covered areas with higher altitudes, to study the mechanism of runoff production and separation. The evaluation index, determination coefficients (R2), mean square error (MSE), and Nash efficiency coefficients (NSE) are used to assess the improved XHM’s effect by comparing it with the traditional model. Results show that the R2 of the improved XHM coupled with snowmelt are around 0.7 and 0.8 at the Zamashk and Yingluoxia stations, respectively, while the MSE and NSE are also under 0.4 and above 0.6, respectively. The absolute value of error of both flood peaks in the Yingluoxia station simulated by improved XHM is only 10% and 6%, and that of traditional XHM is 32% and 40%, indicating that the peak flow and flood process can be well simulated and showing that the improved XHM coupled with snowmelt constructed in this paper can be applied to the flood forecasting of the Heihe River Basin. The critical temperature of snow melting and degree-day factor of snow are more sensitive compared with other parameters related to snow melting, and the increasing trend of peak flow caused by both decreased critical temperature and increased degree-day factor occurs only when the value of the model’s state (snow reserve) is higher. These results can expand the application scope in snow-dominated areas of the XHM, providing certain technical references for flood forecasting and early warning of other snowmelt-dominated river basins

Effect of Normalization Methods on Accuracy of Estimating Low- and High-Molecular Weight PAHs Distribution in the Soils of a Coking Plant

Mapping spatial distribution of soil contaminants at contaminated sites is the basis of risk assessment. Hotspots can cause strongly skewed distribution of the raw contaminant concentrations in soil, and consequently can require suitable normalization prior to interpolation. In this study, three normalization methods including normal score, Johnson, and Box-Cox transformation were performed on the concentrations of two low-molecular weight (LMW) PAHs (i.e., acenaphthene (Ace) and naphthalene (Nap)) and two high-molecular weight (HMW) PAHs (i.e., benzo(a)pyrene (BaP) and benzo(b)fluoranthene (BbF)) in soils of a typical coking plant in North China. The estimating accuracy of soil LMW and HMW PAHs distribution using ordinary kriging with different normalization methods was compared. The results showed that all transformed data passed the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, indicating that all three data transformation methods achieved normality of raw data. Compared to Box-Cox-ordinary kriging, normal score-, and Johnson-ordinary kriging had higher estimating accuracy of the four soil PAHs distribution. In cross-validation, smaller root-mean-square error (RMSE) and mean error (ME) values were observed for normal score-ordinary kriging for both LMW and HMW PAHs compared to Johnson- and Box-Cox-ordinary kriging. Thus, normal score transformation is suitable for alleviating the impact of hotspots on estimating accuracy of the four selected soil PAHs distribution at this coking plant. The findings can provide insights into reducing uncertainty in spatial interpolation at PAHs-contaminated sites

Geodetector model-based quantitative analysis of vegetation change characteristics and driving forces: A case study in the Yongding River basin in China

Vegetation is one of the most crucial components of terrestrial ecosystems, and monitoring vegetation change as well as studying the factors that drive its formation provide significant guidance for restoring ecological biodiversity. The choice of driving indicators for vegetation change in previous studies has not been comprehensive enough, and particularly groundwater depth has not been considered. Therefore, 10 natural factors and 5 human factors were chosen for our study. We adopted the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) to measure vegetation growth. In this study, we utilized trend analysis, the Mann-Kendall test, and the Hurst index to investigate the spatiotemporal variance of NDVI in the YDRB. The geographical detector model (Geodetector) was employed to examine vegetation change attributed to human and natural variables. As a result of the study, we found that over the past 22 years, the NDVI in the basin increased from 0.62 to 0.70, with an increase of +0.0040/yr. Land use type is the most significant driver affecting NDVI changes. The interaction of two factors has a greater effect on vegetation change more than a single factor. The relationship between land use type and annual mean precipitation explained 34.5 % of the change in vegetation. Groundwater depth contributed 4.1 % to the explanation of vegetation change. Furthermore, we have determined the optimal range of specific variables conducive to vegetation growth. The results help us further understand the potential driving mechanism of vegetation cover change in the YDRB and provide a theoretical reference for relevant managers to formulate the ecological restoration measures in the basin

Evaluation of Flood Prediction Capability of the WRF-Hydro Model Based on Multiple Forcing Scenarios

The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)-Hydro model as a physical-based, fully-distributed, multi-parameterization modeling system easy to couple with numerical weather prediction model, has potential for operational flood forecasting in the small and medium catchments (SMCs). However, this model requires many input forcings, which makes it difficult to use it for the SMCs without adequate observed forcings. The Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS), the WRF outputs and the ideal forcings generated by the WRF-Hydro model can provide all forcings required in the model for these SMCs. In this study, seven forcing scenarios were designed based on the products of GLDAS, WRF and ideal forcings, as well as the observed and merged rainfalls to assess the performance of the WRF-Hydro model for flood simulation. The model was applied to the Chenhe catchment, a typical SMC located in the Midwestern China. The flood prediction capability of the WRF-Hydro model was also compared to that of widely used Xinanjiang model. The results show that the three forcing scenarios, including the GLDAS forcings with observed rainfall, the WRF forcings with observed rainfall and GLDAS forcings with GLDAS-merged rainfall, are optimal input forcings for the WRF-Hydro model. Their mean root mean square errors (RMSE) are 0.18, 0.18 and 0.17 mm/h, respectively. The performance of the WRF-Hydro model driven by these three scenarios is generally comparable to that of the Xinanjiang model (RMSE = 0.17 mm/h)

Deriving Scaling Factors Using a Global Hydrological Model to Restore GRACE Total Water Storage Changes for China's Yangtze River Basin

This study used a global hydrological model (GHM), PCR-GLOBWB, which simulates surface water storage changes, natural and human induced groundwater storage changes, and the interactions between surface water and subsurface water, to generate scaling factors by mimicking low-pass filtering of GRACE signals. Signal losses in GRACE data were subsequently restored by the scaling factors from PCR-GLOBWB. Results indicate greater spatial heterogeneity in scaling factor from PCR-GLOBWB and CLM4.0 than that from GLDAS-1 Noah due to comprehensive simulation of surface and subsurface water storage changes for PCR-GLOBWB and CLM4.0. Filtered GRACE total water storage (TWS) changes applied with PCR-GLOBWB scaling factors show closer agreement with water budget estimates of TWS changes than those with scaling factors from other land surface models (LSMs) in China's Yangtze River basin. Results of this study develop a further understanding of the behavior of scaling factors from different LSMs or GHMs over hydrologically complex basins, and could be valuable in providing more accurate TWS changes for hydrological applications (e.g., monitoring drought and groundwater storage depletion) over regions where human-induced interactions between surface water and subsurface water are intensive