TIME SERIES ANALYSIS FOR THE TREATMENT OF TYPHOID (ENTERIC) FEVER IN MAIDUGURI: USING ARIMA MODEL

This paper titled time series analysis for treatment of typhoid (etteric) fever in Maiduguri; using Arima model, the paper has noticed that the data displayed both a trend and seasonality; the trend indicates a reduction in the most recent year's data. Using autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation function (ACF and PACF), the data can also be utilized to determine the model's order. The model obtained is subjected to model diagnostics in order to determine its efficiency and the model is used to forecast the typhoid fever. From the forecast graph shows that there may be a decrease in future years due to the pattern of the series the impression, we obtain from the graph is that predicted series seems to be trend upward and then downward. ARIMA (1,0,0) has the minimum value of AIC therefore it found to be best model. Hence, the model to fit the typhoid fever based on diplomatic test, which is LJung Box test from the family of Box Janks procedure, then our P-value is less than 0.05 level of significant, we reject the null hypothesis and conclude that the typhoid fever is statistically significant at 5% level of significant. Forecast of typhoid fever from February to December 2025 we also conclude that the typhoid fever is stable. Improve Sanitation and Hygiene: Implement measures to improve sanitation and hygiene practices, especially in areas with high disease prevalence. This may include promoting access to clean water, proper waste management, and hygiene education campaigns

Time Series Analysis for The Treatment of Typhoid (Enteric) Fever in Maiduguri: Using Arima Model

This research employs the ARIMA model to conduct a thorough time series analysis on the treatment of typhoid (enteric) fever in Maiduguri. The study reveals the presence of both trend and seasonality in the data, with the trend indicating a recent reduction in the recorded data. Using autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation function (ACF and PACF), the data can also be utilized to determine the model's order. The model obtained is subjected to model diagnostics to determine its efficiency and the model is used to forecast the typhoid fever. From the forecast graph shows that there may be a decrease in future years due to the pattern of the series the impression, we obtain from the graph is that predicted series seems to be trend upward and then downward. ARIMA (1,0,0) has the minimum value of AIC therefore it found to be best model. Hence, the model to fit the typhoid fever based on diplomatic test, which is LJung Box test from the family of Box Janks procedure, then our P-value is less than 0.05 level of significant, we reject the null hypothesis and conclude that the typhoid fever is statistically significant at 5% level of significant. Forecast of typhoid fever from February to December 2025 we also conclude that the typhoid fever is stable. Improve Sanitation and Hygiene: Implement measures to improve sanitation and hygiene practices, especially in areas with high disease prevalence. This may include promoting access to clean water, proper waste management, and hygiene education campaigns.Keyword: ARIMA Model, Typhoid fever, Box janks, WHO, Model diagnostic

Synthesis, characterization and anti-bacterial activity of Schiff Base and its mixed ligand complexes of Cr (II) and Co (II) containing vanillin and 2-aminophenol

Schiff Base are organic ligand that contained azomethine linkage (-HC=N-) which shows biological importance. Schiff Base from vanillin and 2-aminophenol was synthesized in 1:1 mole ratio. The complexes of Cr (II) and Co (II) from Schiff Base in 1:2 mole ratio metal-ligand (M-L) and the mixed ligand complexes from Schiff Base and 2-aminophenol in 1:1:1 mole ratio ligand-metal-ligand(L-M-L) were synthesized and characterized based on solubility, melting point, conductivity, Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR) and ultraviolet (UV). The solubility result shows that, dimethyl sulfoxide(DMSO) dissolved all the complexes. The results obtained from melting point, conductivity indicated purity and non-electrolytic of the complexes respectively. In metal complexes, the infrared data showed the ligands is coordinated to the metal ion through azomethine nitrogen, oxygen in methoxyl group and oxygen in phenolic group. In mixed ligand complexes, the infrared data revealed the ligands is coordinated to the metal ion through azomethine nitrogen, oxygen in methoxyl group, oxygen in phenolic group and nitrogen in amino group. The results showed a six coordinate octahedral geometry for these complexes. The ligands and the metal complexes were examined for their antibacterial activity using agar well diffusion method against Escherichia coli, Staphylococcus aureus, streptococcus pyrogens , Klebsiella pneumonia (gram - bacteria), and Bacillus sutilis, Staphylococcus aureus (gram + bacteria). In comparing the results, the complex of Co(HL1)2 has greater zone of inhibition against the tested organism than the free ligands as antibacterial agent

Determinants of diabetes knowledge in a cohort of Nigerian diabetics

BACKGROUND: One of the consequences of the generational paradigm shift of lifestyle from the traditional African model to a more "western" standard is a replacement of communicable diseases by non-communicable or life style related diseases like diabetes. To address this trend, diabetes education along with continuous assessment of diabetes related knowledge has been advocated. Since most of the Nigerian studies assessing knowledge of diabetes were hospital-based, we decided to evaluate the diabetes related knowledge and its sociodemographic determinants in a general population of diabetics. METHODS: Diabetics (n = 184) attending the 2012 world diabetes day celebration in a Nigerian community were surveyed using a two part questionnaire. Section A elicited information on their demographics characteristics and participation in update courses, and exercise, while section B assessed knowledge of diabetes using the 14 item Michigan Diabetes Research and Training Centre's Brief Diabetes Knowledge Test. RESULTS: We found that Nigerian diabetics had poor knowledge of diabetes, with pervasive fallacies. Majority did not have knowledge of "diabetes diet", "fatty food", "free food", effect of unsweetened fruit juice on blood glucose, treatment of hypoglycaemia, and the average duration glycosylated haemoglobin (haemoglobin A1) test measures blood glucose. Attaining tertiary education, falling under the 51-60 years age group, frequent attendance at seminars/updates and satisfaction with education received, being employed by or formerly working for the government, and claiming an intermediate, or wealthy income status was associated with better knowledge of diabetes. CONCLUSION: Nigerian diabetics' knowledge of diabetes was poor and related to age, level of education, satisfaction with education received, employment status and household wealth

The impact of rural residence and HIV infection on poor tuberculosis treatment outcomes in a large urban hospital: a retrospective cohort analysis.

BACKGROUND: Successful tuberculosis (TB) treatment is essential to effective TB control. TB-HIV coinfection, social determinants and access to services influenced by rural residence can affect treatment outcome. We examined the separate and joint effects of rural residence and HIV infection on poor treatment outcome among patients enrolled in a large TB treatment centre in Kano, Nigeria. METHODS: We retrospectively analysed a cohort of patients with TB enrolled in a large urban TB clinic in northern Nigeria, from January 2010 to December 2014. Poor treatment outcome was defined as death, default or treatment failure. We used Poisson regression to model rates and determine the relative risks (and 95% confidence intervals, CI) of poor treatment outcomes. RESULTS: Among 1381 patients included in the analysis, 28.4% were rural residents; 39.8% were HIV-positive; and 46.1% had a poor treatment outcome. Approximately 65 and 38% of rural and urban residents, respectively, had a poor treatment outcome. Rural residents had 2.74 times (95% CI: 2.27-3.29) the risk of having a poor treatment outcome compared to urban residents. HIV-positive patients had 1.4 times (95% CI: 1.16-1.69) the risk of poor treatment outcome compared to HIV-negative patients. The proportion of poor treatment outcome attributable to rural residence (population attributable fraction, PAF) was 25.6%. The PAF for HIV infection was 11.9%. The effect of rural residence on poor treatment outcome among HIV-negative patients (aRR:4.07; 95%CI:3.15-5.25) was more than twice that among HIV-positive patients (aRR:1.99; 95%CI:1.49-2.64). CONCLUSION: Rural residents attending a large Nigerian TB clinic are at increased risk of having poor treatment outcomes, and this risk is amplified among those that are HIV-negative. Our findings indicate that rural coverage of HIV services may be better than TB services. These findings highlight the importance of expanding coverage of TB services to ensure prompt diagnosis and commencement of treatment, especially among rural-dwellers in resource-limited settings

The critical need for pooled data on coronavirus disease 2019 in African children : an AFREhealth call for action through multicountry research collaboration

Globally, there are prevailing knowledge gaps in the epidemiology, clinical manifestations, and outcomes of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection among children and adolescents; and these gaps are especially wide in African countries. The availability of robust age-disaggregated data is a critical first step in improving knowledge on disease burden and manifestations of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) among children. Furthermore, it is essential to improve understanding of SARS-CoV-2 interactions with comorbidities and coinfections such as human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), tuberculosis, malaria, sickle cell disease, and malnutrition, which are highly prevalent among children in sub-Saharan Africa. The African Forum for Research and Education in Health (AFREhealth) COVID-19 Research Collaboration on Children and Adolescents is conducting studies across Western, Central, Eastern, and Southern Africa to address existing knowledge gaps. This consortium is expected to generate key evidence to inform clinical practice and public health policy-making for COVID-19 while concurrently addressing other major diseases affecting children in African countries.The US National Institutes of Health (NIH)/ Fogarty International Centre (FIC) to the African Forum for Research and Education in Health (AFREhealth).https://academic.oup.com/cidam2022Paediatrics and Child Healt

Neonatal sepsis and mortality in low-income and middle-income countries from a facility-based birth cohort: an international multisite prospective observational study

Background Neonatal sepsis is a primary cause of neonatal mortality and is an urgent global health concern, especially within low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs), where 99% of global neonatal mortality occurs. The aims of this study were to determine the incidence and associations with neonatal sepsis and all-cause mortality in facility-born neonates in LMICs. Methods The Burden of Antibiotic Resistance in Neonates from Developing Societies (BARNARDS) study recruited mothers and their neonates into a prospective observational cohort study across 12 clinical sites from Bangladesh, Ethiopia, India, Pakistan, Nigeria, Rwanda, and South Africa. Data for sepsis-associated factors in the four domains of health care, maternal, birth and neonatal, and living environment were collected for all mothers and neonates enrolled. Primary outcomes were clinically suspected sepsis, laboratory-confirmed sepsis, and all-cause mortality in neonates during the first 60 days of life. Incidence proportion of livebirths for clinically suspected sepsis and laboratory-confirmed sepsis and incidence rate per 1000 neonate-days for all-cause mortality were calculated. Modified Poisson regression was used to investigate factors associated with neonatal sepsis and parametric survival models for factors associated with all-cause mortality. Findings Between Nov 12, 2015 and Feb 1, 2018, 29 483 mothers and 30 557 neonates were enrolled. The incidence of clinically suspected sepsis was 166·0 (95% CI 97·69–234·24) per 1000 livebirths, laboratory-confirmed sepsis was 46·9 (19·04–74·79) per 1000 livebirths, and all-cause mortality was 0·83 (0·37–2·00) per 1000 neonate-days. Maternal hypertension, previous maternal hospitalisation within 12 months, average or higher monthly household income, ward size (>11 beds), ward type (neonatal), living in a rural environment, preterm birth, perinatal asphyxia, and multiple births were associated with an increased risk of clinically suspected sepsis, laboratory-confirmed sepsis, and all-cause mortality. The majority (881 [72·5%] of 1215) of laboratory-confirmed sepsis cases occurred within the first 3 days of life. Interpretation Findings from this study highlight the substantial proportion of neonates who develop neonatal sepsis, and the high mortality rates among neonates with sepsis in LMICs. More efficient and effective identification of neonatal sepsis is needed to target interventions to reduce its incidence and subsequent mortality in LMICs. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Health Risk Assessment of Heavy Metals in Soil Rhizosphere and Onion Bulbs Cultivated in Danbam Farmlands, North East, Nigeria

Authors: Elisha Karu*, Buhari Magaji, Aishatu Umar Maigari and Fauziyya Aliyu Jibo Received: 24 June 2021/Accepted 05 July 2021 This study was conducted to determine the levels of heavy metals (Cd, Cr, Mn, and Pb) in soil rhizosphere and onion bulbs from four locations in the Danbam area of Bauchi State Spectrophotometry method were employed for the determination of the concentrations of the metals. The concentrations of all the heavy metals were found to be in the range 4.06 × 10-8 to 1.91 × 10-1 mg/kg which are below the permissible level (0.02, 500, and 0.3 mg/kg for Cd, Mn, and Pb respectively) set by FAO/WHO. The study also revealed that daily metal intake (DIM), hazard quotient (HQ), and hazard index (HI) were below unity and points to the nonexistence of potential public health. Calculated bioconcentration factors (BCF) suggested a higher concentration of heavy metal ions in the soil than in the onion bulbs and did not portray any risk to public healt

Complex partial seizure, disruptive behaviours and the Nigerian Legal System

Background: Complex partial seizure is an epileptic seizure which results in impairment of responsiveness or awareness such as altered level of consciousness. Complex partial seizures are often preceded by an aura such as depersonalization, feelings of de javu, jamais vu and fear. The ictal phase of complex partial seizure is often associated with complex activities where an individual may still be able to perform routine task such as walking, though such movements are not planned and are often purposeless. Witnesses' around may not recognize anything wrong.Method: This is a case of a 43 year old commercial motor cycle driver, who was accused of first degree murder in the year 2000. He was convicted and sentenced to death. Prior to commission of crime, he was diagnosed with complex partial seizure with secondary generalization in 1990 at a tertiary hospital in Nigeria.Results: During his 15 years stay on death row at a maximum security prison in Nigeria, he had several episodes of seizure and subsequently developed a depressive disorder. He was placed on medication which includes anticonvulsants and antidepressants by the Forensic Psychiatry team. With regular follow-ups and available medication, he became stable. He was pardoned by the state Governor in 2015 following a recommendation by the Forensic Psychiatry team.Conclusion: Complex partial seizure comes with altered consciousness and  disruptive behaviour, which could result in  commission of a crime. Therefore, the strict adherence to the M'Naghten rule by the Nigerian legal system results in strict reliance by judges and not considering these rules in most cases bothering on  insanity. This is without taking into cognizance the peculiarity of each case.Keywords: complex partial seizure, death row, murder, pardon