Energy Demand Estimation and Forecasting in Qatar

The economic theory provides a rationale for linking the energy demand to a number of variables that might affect it. Starting from that, the empirical analyses specify a number of alternative specifications of the energy demands (water, electricity and fuel). For instance, Zarnikau (2003) suggests three possible forms. First, a linear specification involving the levels of the variables, where the energy demand is a linear function of production factors or of other elements affecting demand. The second form is still a linear specification, but where the log-levels of the variables replace the levels. These two forms are coherent with production (or consumption) functions being additive or multiplicative, respectively, in the underlying factors. The third case focuses on the share equations, most common in a production-based framework, where the share cost of energy, over the total cost of production, depends on the production factors in a linear fashion. We provide an estimation for energy demand and forecasting. We will use the Auto Regressive Distribute Lag (ARDL) specification. The ARDL model might be estimated again by least squares methods. Notably, this specification allows computing short-run elasticities, the parameters, as well as long-run elasticities, which can be obtained by standardizing the coefficients by the autoregressive polynomial, i.e.. A further advantage of the ARDL specifications comes from their coherence with the existence of a long-run equilibrium relation across the modelled variables. In fact, if we assume that the variables of interest are possibly cointegrated (and are thus non-stationary in their levels) and also characterized by short-term dynamic, we might recast the ARDL model into the so-called Error Correction Model representation (ECM) for the series first difference.The estimation approach of such a model might follow the bounds testing approach to cointegration of Pesaran and Shin (1999) and Pesaran et al. (2001). Despite its appealing form, the ECM representation of the ARDL model is appropriate when only a single cointegration relation exist across the modelled variables. A more general structure is that associated with Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) where the dynamic of a set of variables is jointly estimated. The estimation and testing for cointegration might follow the approaches proposed by Johansen (1988, 1991, 1992, 1994 and 1995). Moving back to the three approaches listed by Zarnikau (2003), we now briefly discuss the estimation of share equations. This approach focuses on the estimation of the share cost of various inputs with respect to the total cost of production for a specific good. We express energy demand as a function of energy prices, the appropriate price should be a weighted average of the prices of the underlying energy sources (electricity, gas, oil…etc.). The weights might be interpreted as share costs, and therefore the approaches for the estimation of share equations turn out to be relevant in this case, see Fuss (1986). Share equations are nothing more than linear equations for the share of the specific energy source on the total energy demand. However, the crucial aspect to be here considered is the presence of constraints: the shares must be positive and must sum up to one. However, various approaches have been proposed to introduce the appropriate constraints, see for instance the methods by Zellner (1962 and 1963). Further, we can take gasoline price as an indicator for energy price in the demand function. We close this set of methodological approaches by taking into account the use of structural time series methods, see Harvey (1989).Such an approach might be extended with the presence of stochastic cyclical and seasonal components and could represent an alternative approach to classical time series methods.Building on an ARDL specification with a latent trend, Dilaver and Hunt (2011a) provide a scenario analysis for Turkey industrial energy demand and Dilaver and Hunt (2011b) analyze scenarios for residential electricity demand in Turkey. Both studies consider three scenarios, the reference one and two opposite cases representing an increase/decrease in the energy demand due to changes in the production levels, the energy efficiency and the prices. Jiang and Li (2012) provide three different scenarios for the evolution of China energy demand starting from a static long-run relation and using scenarios for the underlying factors. Li et al. (2010) analyze the evolution of energy demand and CO2 emissions in Shanghai under two alternative scenarios, one associated with energy conservation policies. Tajudeen (2015) performs a forecast and scenario analysis for aggregated energy demand. He consider three scenarios, the reference one and two alternatives with increases/decreases in the factors affecting energy demand. Zachariadis and Taibi (2015) provide a scenario analysis for Cyprus energy demand based on different projections of underlying macroeconomic factors as well as in terms of energy efficiency improvements.The estimation and the results wil lbe presented in the conferenceqscienc

The Blockade Imposed on Qatar from the Perspective of International Treaties and Resulting Responsibilities

 لا شك أن صدور القرار المفاجئ لمجموعة الدول الأربع، السعودية والإمارات والبحرين ومصر، بمقاطعة دولة قطر وفرض نوعٍ من الحصار البري والبحري والجوي والدبلوماسي عليها، أثار قضايا عدّة تتعلّق بالعلاقات الدَّوليَّة وعلاقات الجوار والأعراف والتقاليد، وترتب عليه انتهاك الكثير من حقوق دولة قطر، الاقتصَاديَّة والاِجتمَاعيَّة والأمنية والسياسية وغيرها، أقرتها المواثيق الدولية والإقليمية. أوضحت الدراسة أن حالة دولة قطر تُعد حصارًا وليس مقاطعة طبقًا لدلالات الحصار في اللغة والفقه الدولي، وأن دول الحصار افتقرت إلى المرجعيات الدولية خاصة فيما تضمنه الفصل السابع من ميثاق منظمة الأمم المتحدة الذي أعطى مجلس الأمن وحده دون غيره سلطة إصدار أي قرار من هذا النوع بموجب المادة 41؛ يأمر فيه باتخاذ التدابير المناسبة ضدّ الدولة أو الدول المعتدية أو المهدّدة للسلم والأمن الدوليين، وبـوقف الصلات الاقتصَاديَّة والمواصلات الحديدية والبحرية والجوية والبريدية والبرقية واللاسلكية وغيرها من وسائل المواصلات وقفًا جزئيًّا أو كليًّا، وبقطع العلاقات الدبلوماسية. من ثم فإن حصار الدول الأربع لدولة قطر ينتهك ويخالف تمامًا قواعد القانون الدولي وكافة المواثيق الدولية وخاصة مواثيق الشرعة الدولية لحقوق الإنسان والمواثيق الدولية المعنية بمكافحة الإرهاب، كذلك المواثيق الإقليمية ومنها ميثاقا جامعة الدول العربية ومجلس التعاون لدول الخليج العربية الذي يضم في عضويته أربع دول خليجية منها ثلاث دول تقوم بالحصار؛ هي السعودية والإمارات والبحرين، والرابعة هي دولة قطر التي يقع عليها الحصار. على هذا الأساس توافرت شروط المسؤولية الدولية تجاه دول الحصار نتيجة ما أحدثه سلوكها غير المشروع من وقوع أضرار كبيرة على دولة قطر، وهو الأمر الذي يجيز للأخيرة تحريك المسؤولية الدولية تجاه دول الحصار، والحصول على التعويض المناسب لما وقع على الدولة ومؤسساتها ومواطنيها والمقيمين عليها من أضرار جسام.No doubt that the surprising and sudden decision taken by the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA), the United Arab Emirates (UAE), the Kingdom of Bahrain, and Egypt to boycott and impose a land, sea, air and diplomatic blockade on Qatar raises many issues relating to international relations, neighborhood relationships, and customs and traditions. The blockade imposed on Qatar resulted in many violations of the country’s economic, social, security and political rights, which are guaranteed by the international and regional treaties. This study demonstrates that the case of Qatar is a real blockade and not a boycott according to the definition of the term “blockade” from the linguistic and international jurisprudence perspectives. It shows that the blockading countries are lacking international references, mainly the Article 7 of the Charter of the United Nations that provides the Security Council solely the authority of taking such a decision according to the Article 41, ordering to take the necessary measures against the aggressing state(s) or those threatening the international peace and security. The Council may order the suspension of economic, rail transportation, maritime, air, postal, communication and telecommunication relations, partially or totally, or the suspension of diplomatic relations with such countries. Therefore, the blockade imposed on Qatar by the four countries is a clear violation of the international law and treaties, especially those relating to human rights and combatting terrorism. It also violates the regional treaties such as the Charter of the League of Arab States and the GCC, which includes three states imposing the blockade, namely KSA, UAE and Bahrain, and the fourth state, Qatar, which is the victim of the blockade. In this regard, the international responsibility of the blockading states is obvious because of the damaging effects of their act on the State of Qatar, which provides Qatar the right to set up a case of international responsibility against these countries and claim compensation due to the huge damage caused by the blockade on its institutions, citizens, and residents

Effect of micro sprinkler irrigation intervals on onion (Allium cepa L.) production compared to surface irrigation under Kassala conditions, Sudan

An experiment was conducted to evaluate the effects of surface and micro sprinkler irrigation intervals on onion production under Kassala conditions. Three irrigation intervals were applied under micro sprinkler irrigation; every day, three days and at five days compared to farmers practice, (surface irrigation every 7 days). The treatments were replicated four times in a randomized complete block design. The results showed that higher yields were produced under micro sprinkler irrigation than surface irrigation. Moreover, micro sprinkler every day recorded the highest yield in both seasons. Therefore, micro sprinkler irrigation system was saving water by about 119% and 101% for seasons one and two, respectively, as compared to surface irrigation. The highest values of water productivity and economic water productivity were obtained under micro sprinkler irrigation system every day as compared to surface irrigation. Irrigation every day under micro- sprinkler irrigation was the most economic and had higher net benefit compared to surface irrigation.      اجريت التجربة لتقييم أداء الري السطحي و فترات الري بالرش الدقيق لإنتاج البصل تحت ظروف كسلا. تم تطبيق ثلاث فترات ري تحت الري بالرش الدقيق على النحو التالي: كل يوم وثلاثة أيام وخمسة أيام مقارنة بممارسات المزارعين (الري السطحي) كل 7 أيام. تم تكرار المعاملات أربع مرات في تصميم القطاعات العشوائية الكاملة. أظهرت النتائج أن أعلى انتاجية كانت تحت الري بالرش الدقيق مقارنة مع الري السطحي. وعلاوة على ذلك، سجل الري بالرش الدقيق كل يوم أعلى انتاجية في الموسمين. نظام الري بالرش الدقيق وفر مياه الري بنسبة 119٪ و 101٪ للموسم الأول والثاني، على التوالي مقارنة بالري السطحي. وقد تم الحصول علی أعلی قیمة لإنتاجية المیاه وإنتاجیة المیاه الاقتصادیة تحت نظام الري بالرش الدقيق کل یوم مقارنة بالري السطحي. الري يوميا تحت الري بالرش الدقيق هو الأكثر اقتصادا وله صافي فائدة أعلى مقارنة بالري السطحي. &nbsp

Effects of bubbler irrigation frequency on yield and quality of foster grapefruit under Khartoum State conditions

The experiment was carried out in private orchards at Tayba Alhasnab area of south Khartoum, Sudan, (latitude 15° 35´ N, longitude 32° 60´ E, altitude 380 masl) during 2013 and 2014 to study the effects of bubbler irrigation frequency on yield and quality of grapefruit under Khartoum State conditions. Five different frequencies of irrigation were applied at 3, 5, 7, 9 and 12 days. Treatments were replicated 4 times in a randomized complete block design (RCBD) and each plot encompassed 3 trees. The results revealed that higher yield and number of fruits per tree were obtained with 5 days irrigation frequency in both years. The 5 days irrigation frequency increased total yield of foster grapefruit by 39% and 8% in the first and second year, respectively, compared to the 12 day. The highest fruit weight was obtained with 5 days irrigation frequency in both years. Moreover, irrigation frequency every 5 days had the highest water productivity.         أجريت التجربة في بستان خاص في منطقة طيبة الحسناب جنوب الخرطوم، السودان خلال الفترة من 2013  وحتي 2014 لدراسة اثر تكرار الري الفقاعي علي انتاجية وجودة القريب فروت فوستر تحت ظروف ولاية الخرطوم. تم تطبيق خمسة معاملات مختلفة من فترات الري (3 و 5 و 7 و 9 و 12 يوم) وتكرارها في اربعة مرات علي نظام المربعات العشوائية الكاملة وشملت كل قطعة 3 أشجار. وأظهرت النتائج أن الانتاجية العالية وعدد الثمار لكل شجرة تم الحصول عليها مع تكرار الري كل 5 أيام في كلا العامين. تكرار الري كل 5 ايام ادي الي زيادة انتاجية القريب فروت بنسبة 39% و8% في السنة الاولي والثانية علي التوالي مقارنة بتكرار الري كل 12 يوم. اعلي وزن للثمرة حصل عليه مع تكرار الري كل 5 ايام في العامين. اضافة الي ذلك ادي تردد الري كل 5 ايام  الي أعلى إنتاجية لوحدة المياه. &nbsp

T-lymphocyte/monocyte interactions in relation to inflammatory joint diseases

EThOS - Electronic Theses Online ServiceGBUnited Kingdo

Comparison of magnetized and normal water on yield and yield components of banana and hydraulic performance of drip irrigation system

     An experiment was conducted at the Horticultural Research Centre Farm of the Agricultural Research Corporation (ARC), Wad Medani, Sudan during seasons 2010 through 2012 to evaluate effects of magnetic water technology on yield, and yield components of banana cv. Albeily and hydraulics of drip irrigation system. Two types of irrigation water were used: magnetic water and normal water. The plot of each type of irrigation water consisted of 4 banana plants. The two treatments were replicated 5 times. The results revealed that applying magnetic water increased plant height and girth of banana and attained fewer days from planting to flowering and from flowering to harvest compared to normal water. Bunch weight and number of hands per bunch were also higher for magnetic water.  Magnetic water improved the hydraulic performance of drip irrigation system compared to normal water.        اجريت هذه الدراسة بمزرعة مركز بحوث البساتين، هيئة البحوث الزراعية، واد مدني السودان في الفترة من 2010 وحتي 2012 لتقييم أثر تقنية مغنطة المياه على الانتاجية  ومكونات انتاجية الموز والاداء الهيدرولوكي للري بالتنقيط صنف البيلي. استخدم نوعين من مياه الري مياه ممغنطة ومياه عادية. الوحدة في كل نوع من مياه الري ضمت اربع نباتات والمعاملتين تم تكرارها خمس مرات. اظهرت النتائج ان المياه الممغنطة ادت الي زياده في طول وسمك الساق الكاذبة للموز وكذلك الي تقليل الايام من الزراعة الي الازهار ومن الازهار الي الحصاد. كما اظهرت النتائج ان وزن السبيطة وعدد الكفوف في السبيطة كان اعلي تحت المياه الممغنطة. أدت مغنطة مياه الري الي تحسين الاداء الهيدرولوكي لنظام الري بالتنقيط مقارنة مع المياه العادية.  &nbsp

Installation of a family drip irrigation system for the improvement of the livelihood of small-scale farmers in comparison with surface irrigation

Drip irrigation is one of the most efficient methods of water use for crop production. Family drip systems are suitable for small land areas ranging from 10-2000 m2 to irrigate horticultural crops. The system is a complete drip irrigation unit. It operates by gravity from a tank placed one meter high. It is a closed pipe-gravity system, and solid seasonal installation, for growing vegetables, flowers and other horticultural crops on flat or minor slope land. This experiment was established to evaluate a family drip system in comparison with surface irrigation for onion production under north Kassala conditions (Talkouk Locality). The results indicated that family drip system saved irrigation water by 67% and 59%, and increased the total yield of onion by 43% and 34% in sites one and two, respectively, as compared to local surface irrigation. The highest irrigation water productivity (2.98 and 2.73 kg/m3) was obtained under family drip system and the lowest values were 1.25 and 1.28 kg/m3 under surface irrigation in sites one and two, respectively. Moreover, the family drip system scored higher net return and benefit cost ratio compared to the surface irrigation system.         الري بالتنقيط هو أكثر الطرق كفاءة في استخدام المياه لإنتاج المحاصيل. نظام الري بالتنقيط العائلي هو نظام يناسب  المساحات الصغيرة التي تتراوح مساحتها بين 10 الي 2000  متر مربع, لري المحاصيل البستانية. النظام هو وحدة ري بالتنقيط  كاملة؛ يعمل بالجاذبية من خزان وضع علي ارتفاع 1 متر. هو نظام ذو انابيب مغلقة للجاذبية ويمكن تركيبة كل موسم بسهولة لزراعة الخضرواتِ والزهور والمحاصيل البستانية الأخرى على الأراضِي المنحدرة والمستويةِ أَو البسيطةِ. تأسست هذه التجربة لتقييم نظام الري بالتنقيط العائلي مقارنة مع الري السطحي المحلي لإنتاج البصل تحت ظروف شمال كسلا محلية تلكوك. اشارت النتائج إلى أن نظام الري بالتنقيط العائلي حفظ مياه الري بنسبة 67٪ و 59٪، وزيادة الانتاجية بنسبة 43٪ و 34٪ في الموقع الاول والثاني على التوالي مقارنة مع الري السطحي المحلي. ايضا تم الحصول على أعلى إنتاجية لمياه الري (2.98 و2.73 كيلوجرام متر مكعب) تحت نظام الري بالتنقيط العائلي وكانت أقل القيم   (1.25 و 1.28 كيلوجرام متر مكعب) تحت الري السطحي في الموقعين الاول والثاني. علاوة على ذلك، سجل نظام الري بالتنقيط العائلي اعلي عائد ومنفعة مقارنة لنظام الري السطحي

GAS CHROMATOGRAPHY - MASS SPECTROMETRY (GC-MS) IN ORGANIC GEOCHEMICAL INVESTIGATION OF CRUDE OILS FROM KIKINDA AND VELEBIT FIELDS IN SERBIA

In this work two crude oil samples were investigated to present the difference between biodegraded (Velebit) and non-degraded (Kikinda) oil. Two samples are from the Velebit oil–gas field and the Kikinda oil-gas field. These are two of the largest oil and gas deposits in the Serbian part of the Pannonian Basin. In the experimental part of this work, two samples of crude oil were separated by column chromatography. Saturated hydrocarbons were analyzed by gas chromatography-mass spectrometry instruments. Based on the abundance and distribution of biomarkers, it could be conclude that the distribution is typical of oil in both samples, with difference in the distribution of n-alkane. GC-MS chromatogram of n-alkanes and isoprenoids of saturated fraction isolated from Velebit crude oil show the distribution typical of oils altered by biodegradation

Evaluation of serotonin serum level in cases of alopecia areata and vitiligo

Background: There are cutaneous illnesses that could be exacerbated or precipitated by stress, including alopecia areata, psoriasis, and even vitiligo. Psychological sequelae mainly affected by serotonin have been studied among these patients.Objective: Assessment of blood serotonin levels in alopecia areata and vitiligo patients for psychological impacts. Patients and Methods: 15 individuals with vitiligo, 15 with alopecia areata, and 15 healthy age and sex matched controls were studied in this study. A modified version of the Social Readjustment Rating Scale (SRRS) was used to quantify the stress index, and blood serotonin levels were also measured to study the role of stress in alopecia areata and vitiligo.Results: Patients who had alopecia areata as well as vitiligo had considerably greater serum serotonin levels than controls. In the vitiligo group, there was a strong positive connection between serum serotonin, the vitiligo area scoring index (VASI) score, and the stress index. On the other hand, no positive correlation was found between serum serotonin and both severity of alopecia tool (SALT) score and stress index in alopecia areata group. Conclusion: In both alopecia areata and vitiligo, psychological stress appears to play a significant role as a triggering factor and we should pay attention to psychiatric role to get proper treatment for such chronic diseases