Marché du pétrole: étude de la pertinence du l'Organisation des pays exportateurs de pétrole (OPEP)

Ce travail porte sur l’étude de l’Organisation des Pays Exportateurs de Pétrole (OPEP) avec objectif de déterminer si elle est toujours pertinente sur le marché pétrolier. En effet, ce marché a vu ces dernières années une surabondance d’offre ayant des répercussions sur le prix du baril et également sur les économies de certains pays producteurs qui s’avèrent relativement dépendants des cours de cette matière première. De ce fait, la mission principale de l’OPEP, à savoir la stabilisation du marché pétrolier permettant de garantir un certain nombre d’objectifs, n’a pas été réalisée. Cela est principalement dû à l’émergence de concurrents comme les Etats-Unis, et leur pétrole de schiste, qui ont poussé le cartel à opter, en 2014, pour une stratégie affirmée de parts de marché en ne réduisant pas sa production. La pertinence de l’Organisation sur le marché pétrolier a donc été remise en cause et sera au centre de ce présent travail. La situation étant devenue trop insupportable pour les pays producteurs, l’Organisation a tout de même décidé, le 30 novembre 2016, avec onze pays non-membres de s’accorder à une réduction de production d’environ 1.8 million de barils par jour (mb/j) au total (OPEC, 2017 ; Bloomberg, 2017) pour rétablir un équilibre entre les fondamentaux de l’offre et la demande et, par corrélation, soutenir à la hausse le prix du baril. Il a ensuite été décidé le 25 mai 2017 de prolonger les quotas pour neuf mois additionnels (OPEC, 2017). A l’aide d’analyses qualitatives et quantitatives, ce travail apporte finalement la confirmation que l’OPEP est toujours pertinente sur le marché du pétrole compte tenu du fait que l’Organisation, au travers de son leader l’Arabie Saoudite, possède, malgré la concurrence de la Russie et des Etats-Unis, toujours l’avantage de pouvoir influencer les cours au travers de son niveau de production, de sa capacité à stabiliser le marché et à avoir une certaine influence sur ses acteurs mais également grâce à sa part importante dans l’offre mondiale de brut ainsi que les réserves prouvées de son sous sol. Néanmoins, certaines faiblesses, internes et externes, comme le conformisme aux quotas de production pouvant remettre en cause la crédibilité et la pertinence de la position de l’Organisation ainsi que la menace des producteurs américains de schiste ayant profondément changés le paysage pétrolier apportent une certaine nuance. L’OPEP doit par conséquent renforcer ses avantages, négocier et continuer d’user de son influence politique pour que les pays producteurs se conforment aux quotas de production car cela leur serait tout à leur profit, mais elle doit aussi accepter, pour le bien du marché et les économies des pays membres, le fait que son influence sur celui-ci n’est certainement plus le même qu’il a pu l’être par le passé. Elle doit dorénavant se préoccuper de son propre secteur pétrolier en premier lieu afin de se garantir des revenus stables et également se préparer aux défis auxquels elle devra faire face à l’avenir

DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE STUDENTS OF THE FACULTY OF PHYSICAL CULTURE AND REGULAR PRACTITIONERS OF CULTURALISM IN THE DIMENSION OF THE ACTION FACTORS OF FORCE

Mater Thesis. Mentor: Dr.sc.Shemsedin Vehap

Spatial multi-criteria decision analysis to predict suitability for African swine fever endemicity in Africa

Background African swine fever (ASF) is endemic in several countries of Africa and may pose a risk to all pig producing areas on the continent. Official ASF reporting is often rare and there remains limited awareness of the continent-wide distribution of the disease. In the absence of accurate ASF outbreak data and few quantitative studies on the epidemiology of the disease in Africa, we used spatial multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) to derive predictions of the continental distribution of suitability for ASF persistence in domestic pig populations as part of sylvatic or domestic transmission cycles. In order to incorporate the uncertainty in the relative importance of different criteria in defining suitability, we modelled decisions within the MCDA framework using a stochastic approach. The predictive performance of suitability estimates was assessed via a partial ROC analysis using ASF outbreak data reported to the OIE since 2005. Results Outputs from the spatial MCDA indicate that large areas of sub-Saharan Africa may be suitable for ASF persistence as part of either domestic or sylvatic transmission cycles. Areas with high suitability for pig to pig transmission (‘domestic cycles’) were estimated to occur throughout sub-Saharan Africa, whilst areas with high suitability for introduction from wildlife reservoirs (‘sylvatic cycles’) were found predominantly in East, Central and Southern Africa. Based on average AUC ratios from the partial ROC analysis, the predictive ability of suitability estimates for domestic cycles alone was considerably higher than suitability estimates for sylvatic cycles alone, or domestic and sylvatic cycles in combination. Conclusions This study provides the first standardised estimates of the distribution of suitability for ASF transmission associated with domestic and sylvatic cycles in Africa. We provide further evidence for the utility of knowledge-driven risk mapping in animal health, particularly in data-sparse environments.</p

POPs as hazardous waste and appearance in the industry

Hazardous waste is waste, which is consist from composition or concentration of hazardous substances which can cause hazards on environmental and people health and have one or more hazardous properties, such as explosive, reactive (oxidizing), flammability, irritability, toxicity, infectivity, carcinogenicity, mutagenicity, reproduction toxicity, ecotoxicity and discharge properties of toxic gases in contact with water, air od acid, determined in accordance with this law or other regulatin, while in the List of Wastes are referred specifically marked as hazardous waste, including any waste that is mixed with hazardous waste. According to Law on Waste managent (Official Gazette no. 09/2011-reised text), as special wastes or hazardous wastes, are: Waste contaminated with POPs, Waste oils with or without POPs, Batteries, capacitors, transformers, Electrical and electronic equipment, Used and wrecked vehicles, Medical waste, Titanium dioxide, Asbestos waste and waste products containing asbestos, Wasted tir

Disposed biomass as a new origin for heat power – possibilities and perspectives

The energy is present in almost every human activity: serving for heating our homes, as fuel for cars, to move the machines, lighting and more. The use of conventional fossil-energy sources enabling improved quality of life, but the production of energy with classical combustion of fossil fuels is accompanied by the release / discharge of smoke, dust, acid gases and other harmful substances. The use of biomass, fossil cause global climate changes that are more devastating consequences in the last few decades of life and that made people and governments around the world to seriously commit to this problem. The solution to this problem is to change the conventional sources of energy using renewable sources of energy. This paper covers the most important renewable sources - biomass of energy considering their positive and negative sides

Cost-effectiveness of age-related macular degeneration study supplements in the UK: combined trial and real-world outcomes data

Aims To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of Age-Related Eye Disease Study (AREDS) 1 & 2 supplements in patients with either bilateral intermediate age-related macular degeneration, AREDS category 3, or unilateral neovascular age-related macular degeneration AMD (nAMD), AREDS category 4. Methods A patient-level health state transition model based on levels of visual acuity in the better-seeing eye was constructed to simulate the costs and consequences of patients taking AREDS vitamin supplements. Setting: UK National Health Service (NHS). The model was populated with data from AREDS and real-world outcomes and resource use from a prospective multicentre national nAMD database study containing 92 976 ranibizumab treatment episodes. Interventions Two treatment approaches were compared: immediate intervention with AREDS supplements or no supplements. Main outcome measures: quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and healthcare costs were accrued for each strategy, and incremental costs and QALYs were calculated for the lifetime of the patient. One-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were employed to test the uncertainty of the model. Results For AREDS category 3, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was £30 197. For AREDS category 4 compared with no intervention, AREDS supplements are more effective (10.59 vs 10.43 QALYs) and less costly (£52 074 vs 54 900) over the lifetime of the patient. Conclusions The recommendation to publicly fund AREDS supplements to category 3 patients would depend on the healthcare system willingness to pay. In contrast, initiating AREDS supplements in AREDS category 4 patients is both cost saving and more effective than no supplement use and should therefore be considered in public health policy

The utility of age-specific cut-offs for visual rating of medial temporal atrophy in classifying Alzheimer\u27s disease, MCI and cognitively normal elderly subjects

Background: New research criteria for diagnosing Alzheimer\u27s disease (AD) in the mild cognitive impairment stage (MCI-AD) incorporate biomarkers to assign a level of certainty to the diagnosis. Structural MRI is widely available but greatly under-utilized for assessing atrophy of structures affected in early AD, such as the hippocampus (HP), because the quantification of HP volumes (HP-v) requires special expertise, and normative values have not been established. Methods: Elderly subjects (n = 273) from the Florida ADRC were classified as having no cognitive impairment (cognitively normal, CN), amnestic mild cognitive impairment (aMCI) or AD. Volumes for the hippocampus (HP-v) were measured on structural MRI scans. A validated visual rating system for measuring medial temporal atrophy (VRS-MTA), including hippocampal, entorhinal cortex and perirhinal cortex atrophy was employed. The participants were subdivided into younger (less than or equal to 75 years of age) and older (greater than 75 years of age) subgroups. Results: Volumetric and VRS-MTA measures were equivalent in predicting classification of CN vs. aMCI for older (area under the receiver operator curves [aROC]: 0.652 vs. 0.723) and younger subjects (aROC: 0.764 vs. 0.736). However, for younger AD subjects, aROC values were significantly higher for VRS-MTA measures (0.920) than for volumetric measures (0.847). Relative to HP-v, VRS-MTA score was significantly more correlated to impairment on a range of memory tests and was more associated with progression of aMCI to AD than HP-v. Conclusion: Structural MRI with VRS-MTA assessment can serve as a biomarker for supporting the diagnosis of MCI-AD. Age-adjusted VRS-MTA scores are at least as effective as HP-v for distinguishing aMCI and AD from CN and for predicting progression from aMCI to AD. VRS-MTA is convenient for use in the clinic as well as for clinical trials and can readily be incorporated into a standardized radiological report

ANTHROPOMETRICAL CHARACTERISTICS STRUCTURE TO THE 16-YEAR-OLD MALE STUDENTS

The aim of the study is to determine the structure of some anthropometrical characteristics of children aged 16, living in Kosovo. The research was conducted on a sample of 110 male students of high school “Fehmi Lladrovci” in Gllogoc, the Republic of Kosovo. The sample of variable held eighteen anthropometric measures: four variables to estimate the dimensionality of the longitudinal skeleton, four variables to estimate the dimensionality of the transversal skeleton, four variables to estimate the volume of the body, four variables to estimate the skin folds of the body, body weight, and body mass index. The calculation of the data was made by using the SPSS 24 program. All morphological indicators have displayed different parameters that ranged from the lowest to the highest levels. The correlation analysis show that the coefficients of morphological variables are curved and appear as a homogeneous group with a high intercorrelation at the coefficient level of (p =0.01). Factor analysis has shown three latent factors, the first latent factor that has appeared is the anthropometric factor composed of longitudinal dimensionality, transversal dimensionality and body perimeter factors of skeleton. The second latent factor is composed of the skin folds, and the third factor is the anthropometric factor composed of body weight and body mass index.  Article visualizations