673 research outputs found
Characterizing Signal Loss in the 21 cm Reionization Power Spectrum: A Revised Study of PAPER-64
The Epoch of Reionization (EoR) is an uncharted era in our Universe's history
during which the birth of the first stars and galaxies led to the ionization of
neutral hydrogen in the intergalactic medium. There are many experiments
investigating the EoR by tracing the 21cm line of neutral hydrogen. Because
this signal is very faint and difficult to isolate, it is crucial to develop
analysis techniques that maximize sensitivity and suppress contaminants in
data. It is also imperative to understand the trade-offs between different
analysis methods and their effects on power spectrum estimates. Specifically,
with a statistical power spectrum detection in HERA's foreseeable future, it
has become increasingly important to understand how certain analysis choices
can lead to the loss of the EoR signal. In this paper, we focus on signal loss
associated with power spectrum estimation. We describe the origin of this loss
using both toy models and data taken by the 64-element configuration of the
Donald C. Backer Precision Array for Probing the Epoch of Reionization (PAPER).
In particular, we highlight how detailed investigations of signal loss have led
to a revised, higher 21cm power spectrum upper limit from PAPER-64.
Additionally, we summarize errors associated with power spectrum error
estimation that were previously unaccounted for. We focus on a subset of
PAPER-64 data in this paper; revised power spectrum limits from the PAPER
experiment are presented in a forthcoming paper by Kolopanis et al. (in prep.)
and supersede results from previously published PAPER analyses.Comment: 25 pages, 18 figures, Accepted by Ap
PAPER-64 Constraints On Reionization II: The Temperature Of The z=8.4 Intergalactic Medium
We present constraints on both the kinetic temperature of the intergalactic
medium (IGM) at z=8.4, and on models for heating the IGM at high-redshift with
X-ray emission from the first collapsed objects. These constraints are derived
using a semi-analytic method to explore the new measurements of the 21 cm power
spectrum from the Donald C. Backer Precision Array for Probing the Epoch of
Reionization (PAPER), which were presented in a companion paper, Ali et al.
(2015). Twenty-one cm power spectra with amplitudes of hundreds of mK^2 can be
generically produced if the kinetic temperature of the IGM is significantly
below the temperature of the Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB); as such, the
new results from PAPER place lower limits on the IGM temperature at z=8.4.
Allowing for the unknown ionization state of the IGM, our measurements find the
IGM temperature to be above ~5 K for neutral fractions between 10% and 85%,
above ~7 K for neutral fractions between 15% and 80%, or above ~10 K for
neutral fractions between 30% and 70%. We also calculate the heating of the IGM
that would be provided by the observed high redshift galaxy population, and
find that for most models, these galaxies are sufficient to bring the IGM
temperature above our lower limits. However, there are significant ranges of
parameter space that could produce a signal ruled out by the PAPER
measurements; models with a steep drop-off in the star formation rate density
at high redshifts or with relatively low values for the X-ray to star formation
rate efficiency of high redshift galaxies are generally disfavored. The PAPER
measurements are consistent with (but do not constrain) a hydrogen spin
temperature above the CMB temperature, a situation which we find to be
generally predicted if galaxies fainter than the current detection limits of
optical/NIR surveys are included in calculations of X-ray heating.Comment: companion paper to Ali et al. (2015), ApJ 809, 61; matches version
accepted to ApJ; 11 pages, 7 figure
Comprehensive evidence implies a higher social cost of CO2
The social cost of carbon dioxide (SC-CO2) measures the monetized value of the damages to society caused by an incremental metric tonne of CO2 emissions and is a key metric informing climate policy. Used by governments and other decision-makers in beneft–cost analysis for over a decade, SC-CO2 estimates draw on climate science, economics, demography and other disciplines. However, a 2017 report by the US National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine1 (NASEM) highlighted that current SC-CO2 estimates no longer refect the latest research. The report provided a series of recommendations for improving the scientifc basis, transparency and uncertainty characterization of SC-CO2 estimates. Here we show that improved probabilistic socioeconomic projections, climate models, damage functions, and discounting methods that collectively refect theoretically consistent valuation of risk, substantially increase estimates of the SC-CO2. Our preferred mean SC-CO2 estimate is 44–51 per tCO2. Our estimates incorporate updated scientifc understanding throughout all components of SC-CO2 estimation in the new open-source Greenhouse Gas Impact Value Estimator (GIVE) model, in a manner fully responsive to the near-term NASEM recommendations. Our higher SC-CO2 values, compared with estimates currently used in policy evaluation, substantially increase the estimated benefts of greenhouse gas mitigation and thereby increase the expected net benefts of more stringent climate policies
Engineering mesophase stability and structure via incorporation of cyclic terminal groups
We report on the characterisation of a number of liquid-crystalline materials featuring cyclic terminal groups, which lead to significant enhancements in the temperature range of the mesomorphic state. Materials with only short terminal chains are able to support lamellar mesophase formation by appending a large terminal cyclic unit at the end of a short spacer composed of methylene units. X-ray scattering experiments reveal that the layer spacings of the lamellar smectic phase are significantly larger when a cyclic end-group is present than for equivalent linear unsubstituted materials, but there is no effect on orientational order. Fully atomistic molecular dynamics simulations faithfully reproduce experimental layer spacings and orientational order parameters, and indicate that the cyclic terminal units spontaneously segregate into diffuse sub-layers and thus cause the increased layer spacing. This shape segregation predicted by molecular dynamics simulations is observed in the crystalline solid state by X-ray diffraction
Efficiency and safety of varying the frequency of whole blood donation (INTERVAL): a randomised trial of 45 000 donors
Background:
Limits on the frequency of whole blood donation exist primarily to safeguard donor health. However, there is substantial variation across blood services in the maximum frequency of donations allowed. We compared standard practice in the UK with shorter inter-donation intervals used in other countries.
Methods:
In this parallel group, pragmatic, randomised trial, we recruited whole blood donors aged 18 years or older from 25 centres across England, UK. By use of a computer-based algorithm, men were randomly assigned (1:1:1) to 12-week (standard) versus 10-week versus 8-week inter-donation intervals, and women were randomly assigned (1:1:1) to 16-week (standard) versus 14-week versus 12-week intervals. Participants were not masked to their allocated intervention group. The primary outcome was the number of donations over 2 years. Secondary outcomes related to safety were quality of life, symptoms potentially related to donation, physical activity, cognitive function, haemoglobin and ferritin concentrations, and deferrals because of low haemoglobin. This trial is registered with ISRCTN, number ISRCTN24760606, and is ongoing but no longer recruiting participants.
Findings:
45 263 whole blood donors (22 466 men, 22 797 women) were recruited between June 11, 2012, and June 15, 2014. Data were analysed for 45 042 (99·5%) participants. Men were randomly assigned to the 12-week (n=7452) versus 10-week (n=7449) versus 8-week (n=7456) groups; and women to the 16-week (n=7550) versus 14-week (n=7567) versus 12-week (n=7568) groups. In men, compared with the 12-week group, the mean amount of blood collected per donor over 2 years increased by 1·69 units (95% CI 1·59–1·80; approximately 795 mL) in the 8-week group and by 0·79 units (0·69–0·88; approximately 370 mL) in the 10-week group (p<0·0001 for both). In women, compared with the 16-week group, it increased by 0·84 units (95% CI 0·76–0·91; approximately 395 mL) in the 12-week group and by 0·46 units (0·39–0·53; approximately 215 mL) in the 14-week group (p<0·0001 for both). No significant differences were observed in quality of life, physical activity, or cognitive function across randomised groups. However, more frequent donation resulted in more donation-related symptoms (eg, tiredness, breathlessness, feeling faint, dizziness, and restless legs, especially among men [for all listed symptoms]), lower mean haemoglobin and ferritin concentrations, and more deferrals for low haemoglobin (p<0·0001 for each) than those observed in the standard frequency groups.
Interpretation:
Over 2 years, more frequent donation than is standard practice in the UK collected substantially more blood without having a major effect on donors' quality of life, physical activity, or cognitive function, but resulted in more donation-related symptoms, deferrals, and iron deficiency.
Funding:
NHS Blood and Transplant, National Institute for Health Research, UK Medical Research Council, and British Heart Foundation
Development and Validation of a Composite Programmatic Assessment Tool for HIV Therapy
Background
We developed and validated a new and simple metric, the Programmatic Compliance Score (PCS), based on the IAS-USA antiretroviral therapy management guidelines for HIV-infected adults, as a predictor of all-cause mortality, at a program-wide level. We hypothesized that non-compliance would be associated with the highest probability of mortality.
Methods and Findings
3543 antiretroviral-naive HIV-infected patients aged ≥19 years who initiated antiretroviral therapy between January 1, 2000 and August 31, 2009 in British Columbia (BC), Canada, were followed until August 31, 2010. The PCS is composed by six non-performance indicators based on the IAS-USA guidelines: (1) having <3 CD4 count tests in the first year after starting antiretroviral therapy; (2) having <3 plasma viral load tests in the first year after starting antiretroviral therapy; (3) not having drug resistance testing done prior to starting antiretroviral therapy; (4) starting on a non-recommended antiretroviral therapy regimen; (5) starting therapy with CD4 <200 cells/mm3; and (6) not achieving viral suppression within 6 months since antiretroviral therapy initiation. The sum of these six indicators was used to develop the PCS score - higher score indicates poorer performance. The main outcome was all-cause mortality. Each PCS component was independently associated with mortality. In the mortality analysis, the odds ratio (OR) for PCS ≥4 versus 0 was 22.37 (95% CI 10.46–47.84).
Conclusions
PCS was strongly associated with all-cause mortality. These results lend independent validation to the IAS-USA treatment guidelines for HIV-infected adults. Further efforts are warranted to enhance the PCS as a means to further improve clinical outcomes. These should be specifically evaluated and targeted at healthcare providers and patients
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