A Viral Dynamic Model for Treatment Regimens with Direct-acting Antivirals for Chronic Hepatitis C Infection

We propose an integrative, mechanistic model that integrates in vitro virology data, pharmacokinetics, and viral response to a combination regimen of a direct-acting antiviral (telaprevir, an HCV NS3-4A protease inhibitor) and peginterferon alfa-2a/ribavirin (PR) in patients with genotype 1 chronic hepatitis C (CHC). This model, which was parameterized with on-treatment data from early phase clinical studies in treatment-naïve patients, prospectively predicted sustained virologic response (SVR) rates that were comparable to observed rates in subsequent clinical trials of regimens with different treatment durations in treatment-naïve and treatment-experienced populations. The model explains the clinically-observed responses, taking into account the IC50, fitness, and prevalence prior to treatment of viral resistant variants and patient diversity in treatment responses, which result in different eradication times of each variant. The proposed model provides a framework to optimize treatment strategies and to integrate multifaceted mechanistic information and give insight into novel CHC treatments that include direct-acting antiviral agents

A Multi-Variant, Viral Dynamic Model of Genotype 1 HCV to Assess the in vivo Evolution of Protease-Inhibitor Resistant Variants

Variants resistant to compounds specifically targeting HCV are observed in clinical trials. A multi-variant viral dynamic model was developed to quantify the evolution and in vivo fitness of variants in subjects dosed with monotherapy of an HCV protease inhibitor, telaprevir. Variant fitness was estimated using a model in which variants were selected by competition for shared limited replication space. Fitness was represented in the absence of telaprevir by different variant production rate constants and in the presence of telaprevir by additional antiviral blockage by telaprevir. Model parameters, including rate constants for viral production, clearance, and effective telaprevir concentration, were estimated from 1) plasma HCV RNA levels of subjects before, during, and after dosing, 2) post-dosing prevalence of plasma variants from subjects, and 3) sensitivity of variants to telaprevir in the HCV replicon. The model provided a good fit to plasma HCV RNA levels observed both during and after telaprevir dosing, as well as to variant prevalence observed after telaprevir dosing. After an initial sharp decline in HCV RNA levels during dosing with telaprevir, HCV RNA levels increased in some subjects. The model predicted this increase to be caused by pre-existing variants with sufficient fitness to expand once available replication space increased due to rapid clearance of wild-type (WT) virus. The average replicative fitness estimates in the absence of telaprevir ranged from 1% to 68% of WT fitness. Compared to the relative fitness method, the in vivo estimates from the viral dynamic model corresponded more closely to in vitro replicon data, as well as to qualitative behaviors observed in both on-dosing and long-term post-dosing clinical data. The modeling fitness estimates were robust in sensitivity analyses in which the restoration dynamics of replication space and assumptions of HCV mutation rates were varied

Clinical trial simulation to evaluate power to compare the antiviral effectiveness of two hepatitis C protease inhibitors using nonlinear mixed effect models: a viral kinetic approach.

International audienceBACKGROUND: Models of hepatitis C virus (HCV) kinetics are increasingly used to estimate and to compare in vivo drug's antiviral effectiveness of new potent anti-HCV agents. Viral kinetic parameters can be estimated using non-linear mixed effect models (NLMEM). Here we aimed to evaluate the performance of this approach to precisely estimate the parameters and to evaluate the type I errors and the power of the Wald test to compare the antiviral effectiveness between two treatment groups when data are sparse and/or a large proportion of viral load (VL) are below the limit of detection (BLD). METHODS: We performed a clinical trial simulation assuming two treatment groups with different levels of antiviral effectiveness. We evaluated the precision and the accuracy of parameter estimates obtained on 500 replication of this trial using the stochastic approximation expectation-approximation algorithm which appropriately handles BLD data. Next we evaluated the type I error and the power of the Wald test to assess a difference of antiviral effectiveness between the two groups. Standard error of the parameters and Wald test property were evaluated according to the number of patients, the number of samples per patient and the expected difference in antiviral effectiveness. RESULTS: NLMEM provided precise and accurate estimates for both the fixed effects and the inter-individual variance parameters even with sparse data and large proportion of BLD data. However Wald test with small number of patients and lack of information due to BLD resulted in an inflation of the type I error as compared to the results obtained when no limit of detection of VL was considered. The corrected power of the test was very high and largely outperformed what can be obtained with empirical comparison of the mean VL decline using Wilcoxon test. CONCLUSION: This simulation study shows the benefit of viral kinetic models analyzed with NLMEM over empirical approaches used in most clinical studies. When designing a viral kinetic study, our results indicate that the enrollment of a large number of patients is to be preferred to small population sample with frequent assessments of VL

Viral Kinetics Suggests a Reconciliation of the Disparate Observations of the Modulation of Claudin-1 Expression on Cells Exposed to Hepatitis C Virus

The tight junction protein claudin-1 (CLDN1) is necessary for hepatitis C virus (HCV) entry into target cells. Recent studies have made disparate observations of the modulation of the expression of CLDN1 on cells following infection by HCV. In one study, the mean CLDN1 expression on cells exposed to HCV declined, whereas in another study HCV infected cells showed increased CLDN1 expression compared to uninfected cells. Consequently, the role of HCV in modulating CLDN1 expression, and hence the frequency of cellular superinfection, remains unclear. Here, we present a possible reconciliation of these disparate observations. We hypothesized that viral kinetics and not necessarily HCV-induced receptor modulation underlies these disparate observations. To test this hypothesis, we constructed a mathematical model of viral kinetics in vitro that mimicked the above experiments. Model predictions provided good fits to the observed evolution of the distribution of CLDN1 expression on cells following exposure to HCV. Cells with higher CLDN1 expression were preferentially infected and outgrown by cells with lower CLDN1 expression, resulting in a decline of the mean CLDN1 expression with time. At the same time, because the susceptibility of cells to infection increased with CLDN1 expression, infected cells tended to have higher CLDN1 expression on average than uninfected cells. Our study thus presents an explanation of the disparate observations of CLDN1 expression following HCV infection and points to the importance of considering viral kinetics in future studies of receptor expression on cells exposed to HCV

Optimization in computational systems biology

Optimization aims to make a system or design as effective or functional as possible. Mathematical optimization methods are widely used in engineering, economics and science. This commentary is focused on applications of mathematical optimization in computational systems biology. Examples are given where optimization methods are used for topics ranging from model building and optimal experimental design to metabolic engineering and synthetic biology. Finally, several perspectives for future research are outlined