Assessment of Climate Impacts and Adaptation Measures in Agriculture: An Integrated Modelling Approach

The predicted effects of climate change call for methods to assess the performance of agricultural systems across economic, environmental, and social dimensions over different spatial and temporal scales. For research and development to have an impact on system efficiency, potential impacts of climate change and adaptation strategies need to be identified based on an understanding of these individual components of agricultural systems and their interactions in space and time. This dissertation contains four essays that develop and evaluate an Integrated Assessment framework for ex-ante assessment of climate impacts and related agro-technological innovations. The objective of this framework is to underpin assessment of agricultural systems at multiple scales (farm to regional), to provide systematic capabilities for economic, social, and environmental aspects of agricultural systems, and to develop a system that is sufficiently generic, so it can be applied to other places and problems. The first essay provides a systematic comparison of crop yield predictions from different process-based crop models in Kenya and Ethiopia. Using three statistical indicators to measure model performance, we find that while some crop models perform better than others in estimating grain yields in specific environments, none is clearly more robust in terms of yield prediction accuracy across all regions. To this end, the use of multi-model to estimate crop yields can provide a valuable way of estimating the range of possible outcomes, and of unravelling the importance of different physical and biological processes written into crop models. The second essay develops a generic bio-economic farm model for ex-ante assessment of technology adoption on agricultural systems. The applicability of this framework is demonstrated in an assessment of potential adoption and impacts of irrigation on Ethiopian smallholders. We combine data from a detailed household survey and a gridded crop model within a household-level impact assessment model to assess the potential adoption and economic impacts of irrigation. To uncover the distinct impacts of irrigation, we present evidence of heterogeneity in adoption rates and marginal treatment effects by agro-ecological zones and farm activity sets. Results indicate that predicted impacts of irrigation are significantly higher in the drought-prone zone compared to the moisture-reliable zone. Many farms and crops in the moisture-reliable zone see little benefits from irrigation alone, which suggests that although irrigation could be beneficial to farmers in this zone, complementary inputs are necessary to close water-stressed yield gaps. Moreover, we find negative selection among adopters, i.e., farms that would have lower returns in the old system are the ones who adopt irrigation, which suggests these technologies may potentially reduce income inequality. Overall, the heterogeneity in returns suggests that encouraging adoption of a technology based on large predicted average returns may be inefficient due to the lower returns for non-adopters. Furthermore, knowledge of the distribution of returns and adoption rates enables policy interventions that are cost effective. The third essay extends the Integrated Assessment framework to study the potential impacts of climate change (in addition to impacts of adaptation measures) in Kenya. Our results predict average negative impacts of climate change on maize yields and net farm returns on current maize-based systems in Kenya. However, we find significant heterogeneity in these impacts – farms in the high potential maize zone are the most vulnerable to climate change because they are relatively more reliant on maize. In terms of potential adaptation, a large portion of farms in current maize-based systems may benefit from irrigation expansion in Kenya. The impacts of irrigation also show significant heterogeneity across zones; farmers in the low potential zone have lowest impacts on farm income and poverty despite having the highest adoption rates. Intervention aimed at improving livestock in addition to irrigation has similar positive impacts on farm net returns. The provision of multiple improved breed cows increases both milk production and milk productivity. As a result, maize and milk net returns tend to increase for farms across Kenya, leading to increases in per-capita income and decreases in poverty. The fourth essay develops a two-way linkage between a farm-level model of agricultural systems and a partial equilibrium market model. The linkage is illustrated in a case study of potential adoption and distributional impacts of irrigation on smallholders in Ethiopia. In addition, we also simulate the impacts of changes in crop prices on overall household welfare based on a household’s position as net buyer or seller of crops. Our results show that potential irrigation adaptation could benefit Ethiopian farmers even if value of agricultural production declines from improved supply. Overall, the differences in predicted adoption rates and the differences in impacts of increased prices on these adoption rates support the need for combining the adoption behavior of heterogeneous farm populations with behavior modifying effects of aggregate processes like prices

Understanding functional benefits of Isoleucine and Arginine on poultry performance and health.

Poultry industry is rapidly moving towards utilizing the best ingredients to precisely feed the birds for better performance, welfare, health, and profitability. One of the practices that evolved over time with research is better optimization of amino acid utilization in the diets thus changing the crude protein landscape. Historically, if we compare the modern diets to diets from 1980, significant changes are visible in the use of unbound or crystalline amino acids leading to reduced levels of CP and reduced unutilized nitrogen in the diets. Multiple feed-grade amino acids are available in a cost-effective manner in poultry diets. Multiple research has been conducted over 80 years to better understand the optimal requirement of lower limiting amino acids in poultry, formulation with digestible amino acid values, and ideal amino acid formulation to achieve precision feeding of nutrients. Those findings enabled the nutritionist to incorporate crystalline amino acids, remove CP minimum, and crystalline amino acid maximum in the diets to lower the feed cost, reduce CP, reduce excess nitrogen in hindgut and improve the health of the birds and improve litter quality (Kidd 2000; Maia et al., 2021). A 1960 diet would only contain the Methionine as synthetic amino acid, whereas the 2023 diet would contain up to 5/6 limiting amino acids in USA-based broiler diets. The 4th, 5th and 6th limiting amino acids in USA-based poultry diets are usually Valine (Val), Isoleucine (Ile) and Arginine (Arg) depending on the ingredients used. With almost 90% of the industry using the 4th limiting amino acid, there is a need to understand the optimal requirement of 5th and 6th limiting amino acids for performance and other biological functionality. With Ile and Arg being the 5th and 6th limiting amino acid in most broiler, turkey, and layer diets, this article will discuss the importance of Ile and Arg in birds and the effect on performance and health

Understanding functional benefits of Isoleucine and Arginine on poultry performance and health.

Poultry industry is rapidly moving towards utilizing the best ingredients to precisely feed the birds for better performance, welfare, health, and profitability. One of the practices that evolved over time with research is better optimization of amino acid utilization in the diets thus changing the crude protein landscape. Historically, if we compare the modern diets to diets from 1980, significant changes are visible in the use of unbound or crystalline amino acids leading to reduced levels of CP and reduced unutilized nitrogen in the diets. Multiple feed-grade amino acids are available in a cost-effective manner in poultry diets. Multiple research has been conducted over 80 years to better understand the optimal requirement of lower limiting amino acids in poultry, formulation with digestible amino acid values, and ideal amino acid formulation to achieve precision feeding of nutrients. Those findings enabled the nutritionist to incorporate crystalline amino acids, remove CP minimum, and crystalline amino acid maximum in the diets to lower the feed cost, reduce CP, reduce excess nitrogen in hindgut and improve the health of the birds and improve litter quality (Kidd 2000; Maia et al., 2021). A 1960 diet would only contain the Methionine as synthetic amino acid, whereas the 2023 diet would contain up to 5/6 limiting amino acids in USA-based broiler diets. The 4th, 5th and 6th limiting amino acids in USA-based poultry diets are usually Valine (Val), Isoleucine (Ile) and Arginine (Arg) depending on the ingredients used. With almost 90% of the industry using the 4th limiting amino acid, there is a need to understand the optimal requirement of 5th and 6th limiting amino acids for performance and other biological functionality. With Ile and Arg being the 5th and 6th limiting amino acid in most broiler, turkey, and layer diets, this article will discuss the importance of Ile and Arg in birds and the effect on performance and health

The wounded healer during COVID-19: unraveling the violence against healthcare workers in Nepal

On 27th May 2021, a nurse was working in the intensive care unit (ICU) at Bheri Hospital, Nepal when she was startled by a commotion. A hand grabbed her neck and choked her just as she looked behind. “She’s the one responsible,” said the perpetrator, whose brother had succumbed to the coronavirus disease (COVID-19), as his henchmen thrashed other staff on duty. Luckily a relative of another patient rescued the nurse from the vice of the attacker. The staff fled to the duty room. Huddled in the duty room, they wailed for their safety as the perpetrators banged at the door. They then ran into the toilet inside the duty room just as the duty room’s door was broken open. As the door of the toilet could not keep them from the offenders, three nurses and a doctor jumped off the second floor, fearing for their lives. Fortunately, they landed on the sand and ran to safety. Two patients died because of lack of care amidst the chaos.1,

Improving pumpset selection to support intensification of groundwater irrigation in the Eastern Indo-Gangetic Plains

Intensification of groundwater irrigation is central to goals of improving food security and reducing chronic poverty faced by millions of rural households across the eastern Indo-Gangetic Plains (EIGP) of Nepal and parts of eastern India. At present, levels of groundwater use and access in the EIGP lag far behind other areas of South Asia despite abundant available groundwater resources. A key reason for prevailing access constraints is the dependence on diesel pumpsets for accessing groundwater, which are typically unsubsidised and therefore expensive to purchase and operate. To date, efforts to reduce access costs have focused almost exclusively on how to incentivise adoption of alternative electric or solar-powered pumping technologies, which are viewed as being cheaper to operate and less environmentally damaging due to their lower operational carbon emissions. In contrast, there has been little attention paid to identifying opportunities to make existing diesel pump systems more cost effective for farmers to operate in order to support adaptation to climate change and reduce poverty. In this study, we use evidence from 116 detailed in-situ pump tests along with interviews with pumpset dealers, mechanics and farmers in the Nepal Terai to assess how and why fuel efficiency and operational costs of diesel pump irrigation are affected by farmers’ pumpset selection decisions. We show that costs diesel pumpset irrigation can be reduced significantly by supporting and incentivising farmers (e.g., through equipment advisories, improved supply chains for maintenance services and spare parts) to invest in newer low-cost, portable and smaller horsepower pumpset designs that are more effectively matched to local operating conditions in the EIGP than older Indian manufactured engines that have historically been preferred by farmers in the region. Such interventions can help to unlock potential for intensified irrigation water use in the EIGP, contributing to goals of improving agricultural productivity and resilience to climate extremes while also strengthening farmers capacity to invest in emerging low-carbon pumping technologies.</p

Building Capacities for Scaling-Up Climate Smart Village in Nepal: A training manual

Globally there has been enormous effort made by thousands of organizations to promote Climate Smart Agriculture (CSA) technologies for the sake of building resilience in agriculture and farmers’ livelihood. However, the progress so far is not satisfactory. Based on the past learnings CCAFS has conceptualized the idea of Climate Smart Village (CSV) which has CSA as the major component, along with other political and socio-economic dimensions. Looking at the successful piloting of CSV, the Government of Nepal has endorsed this approach in its program. However, a mechanism to share the idea of CSV to the development bodies is lacking. Similarly, the extension workers and other staffs of local governments do not have enough procedural understanding. Therefore, to scale-up CSV approach in Nepal, capacity building of government staffs and local leaders, especially at local and provincial level, is an absolute necessity. A guide book could be the means to facilitate the process of such capacity building. Hence this manual is developed as a guide book for organizing capacity building trainings to the government and non-government development professionals. It will also serve as a resource book to help development workers from local and provincial governments, local leaders, policy makers, researchers, and academicians to understand more about the idea and approach of CSV. Ultimately, this publication is expected to contribute to the mission of scaling-up the CSV approach for the enhanced resilience of farming communities in Nepal and around the world

Isolation and Differentiation of Mesenchymal Stem Cells From Broiler Chicken Compact Bones

Chicken mesenchymal stem cells (MSCs) can be used as an avian culture model to better understand osteogenic, adipogenic, and myogenic pathways and to identify unique bioactive nutrients and molecules which can promote or inhibit these pathways. MSCs could also be used as a model to study various developmental, physiological, and therapeutic processes in avian and other species. MSCs are multipotent stem cells that are capable of differentiation into bone, muscle, fat, and closely related lineages and express unique and specific cell surface markers. MSCs have been isolated from numerous sources including human, mouse, rabbit, and chicken with potential clinical and agricultural applications. MSCs from chicken compact bones have not been isolated and characterized yet. In this study, MSCs were isolated from compact bones of the femur and tibia of day-old male broiler chicks to investigate the biological characteristics of the isolated cells. Isolated cells took 8–10 days to expand, demonstrated a monolayer growth pattern and were plastic adherent. Putative MSCs were spindle-shaped with elongated ends and showed rapid proliferation. MSCs demonstrated osteoblastic, adipocytic, and myogenic differentiation when induced with specific differentiation media. Cell surface markers for MSCs such as CD90, CD105, CD73, CD44 were detected positive and CD31, CD34, and CD45 cells were detected negative by PCR assay. The results suggest that MSCs isolated from broiler compact bones (cBMSCs) possess similar biological characteristics as MSCs isolated from other chicken tissue sources

A REVIEW ON THE MEDICINAL PLANT PSIDIUM GUAJAVA LINN. (MYRTACEAE)

Psidium guajava is an important food crop and medicinal plant available in tropical and subtropical countries, widely used in food and folk medicines around the world. It contains important phytoconstituents such as tannins, triterpenes, flavonoid: quercetin, pentacyclic triterpenoid: guajanoic acid, saponins, carotenoids, lectins, leucocyanidin, ellagic acid, amritoside, beta-sitosterol, uvaol, oleanolic acid and ursolic acid. In view of the immense medicinal importance of the plant, this review is an effort to compile all the information reported on its ethanobotanical, phytochemical and pharmacological activities. The present work attempts to generate interest among the masses regarding its potential in preventing and treating several common diseases. Many pharmacological studies have demonstrated the ability of this plant to exhibit antioxidant, hepatoprotective, anti-allergy, antimicrobial, antigenotoxic, antiplasmodial, cytotoxic, antispasmodic, cardioactive, anticough, antidiabetic, antiinflamatory and antinociceptive activities, supporting its traditional uses. Suggesting a wide range of clinical applications for the treatment of infantile rotaviral enteritis, diarrhoea and diabetes. Key words: ethanobotany, myrtaceae, pharmacology, physicochemical, phytochemical, Psidium guajav

TH2.3: A gender-responsive approach to designing agricultural risk management bundles

Smallholder farmers are exposed to various risks, and because of their large risk exposure, agricultural insurance premiums are often too expensive to be affordable to smallholder farmers. In our study context, for instance, commercially viable insurance premiums are so high that the average farmer would be willing to pay only about 8 percent of the premium. Reducing farmers' risk exposure by incentivizing the adoption of risk-reducing practices and technologies, for instance through discounts to low-risk farmers, could offer a significant breakthrough in lowering insurance premiums. At the same time, in the presence of gender differences in existing cultivation practices, there is a chance that women farmers may find these practices and technologies more inaccessible or costly to afford than men, and in that case, incentivizing adoption of risk-reducing practices and technologies could disadvantage women more than men. We therefore quantify gender gaps by interviewing 462 male and 447 female farmers in the state of Odisha, India, on barriers to adopting risk-reducing technologies and cultivation practices. We find that women are more exposed to flood and post-harvest losses than men, and that they face more challenges hiring labour, increasing their labour costs. We conclude that in this context, gender-responsive insurance policies should promote access to and adoption of risk-reducing practices and technologies that not only minimize exposure to floods and post-harvest losses but also are less labour intensive. The findings of this study will directly inform financial institutions involved in the implementation of an agricultural insurance scheme