The effect of the emergency medical services vehicle location and response strategy on response times

Response time is currently considered to be an important performance indicator in Emergency Medical Services (EMS) systems. A number of factors may affect response times, including the location of emergency vehicles and the type of response system design used. This study aimed to assess the effects of emergency vehicle location and response system design on response time performance in a model of a large South African urban EMS system, using discrete-event simulation. Results indicated that both the emergency vehicle location and response system design factors had a significant effect on response time performance, with more decentralised vehicle location having a greater effect

Deregulation: the Effect of Market-led Approach to Nigerian Universities Management

This paper examines the effects of market-led approach Nigeria universities management concept deregulation from a market-led point of view to evaluate its effect on the management of university education in Nigeria. From many debates and argument put forward on the discussion of deregulation, it is very clear that deregulation policy was introduced for the purpose of enhancing productivities of public sectors or government-owned establishment. The establishment of deregulation policy has created opportunities for different individuals and groups to participate or take ownership of some public sectors in the quest for providing better services and making profits.  However, widens the gap in knowledge about whether or not taking ownership of public sector business has generated profit or not. This paper is desk research and intends to review issues unturned in the past literature on how deregulation has now suddenly become a market-led approach to the Nigerian Universities Management. The paper revealed that Nigerians are keen on getting the best quality education irrespective of how the education systems are put up to be achieved. Likewise, the government has not been able to deregulate any of the public universities they owned rather university provisions have been commercialized and extended to private individuals

Petrology, Physicochemical and Thermal Analyses of Selected Cretaceous Coals from the Benue Trough Basin in Nigeria

Abundant coal resources that were previously neglected due to a crude oil boom need revitalisation and integration into the national electricity mix to address the energy demands of the Nigerian population. Selected coal samples from the Benue Trough sedimentary basin in Nigeria were examined by various techniques, including proximate and ultimate analyses, organic petrography, Fourier transform infrared ray spectroscopy, and thermogravimetric analysis. Based on vitrinite reflectance, the Lafia-Obi (OLB), Garin Maiganga (GMG), Imiegba (IMG), and Okaba (OKB) coals are classified as subbituminous, while the Lamja1 (LMJ1), Lamja2 (LMJ2) and Chikila (CHK) coals are high volatile B bituminous. The Enugu (ENG) coal is on the boundary between subbituminous and high volatile C bituminous. Organic petrographic results indicate vitrinite and fusinite contents steadily increase from the Lower Benue Trough coals to the Upper Benue Trough coals, while semifusinite and total mineral contents follow a reverse pattern. Thermal decomposition occurred in three stages, i.e., drying, devolatilization, and coke formation above 700 °C; and the coal reactivity follows the following order, ENG \u3e IMG \u3e IGH \u3e CHK \u3e LMJ \u3e OKB \u3e GMG \u3e LFB. The higher temperatures (above 900 °C) are required to decompose the coals for efficient energy recovery. The LMJ1, LMJ2, OLB, CHK, GMG, and OKB coals can be exploited for electricity power generation. However, the Imeagha and Enugu coals are best suitable for both cement and power generation

Exploring the Effect of Operational Factors and Characterization Imperative to the Synthesis of Silver Nanoparticles

The synthesis and application of silver nanoparticles are increasingly becoming attractive. Hence, a critical examination of the various factors needed for the synthesis of silver nanoparticles as well as the characterization is imperative. In light of this, we addressed in this chapter, the nitty-gritty on the operational parameters (factors) and characterization relevant to synthesis of silver nanoparticle. The following characterization protocols were discussed in the context of silver nanoparticle synthesis. These protocols include spectroscopic techniques such as ultraviolet visible spectroscopy (UV–Vis), Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR), scanning electron microscopy (SEM), transmission electron microscopy (TEM), energy-dispersive X-ray spectroscopy (EDX), X-ray fluorescence (XRF), X-ray diffraction (XRD), thermogravimetric analysis (TGA) and X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS)

Evolution of Broader Impacts

This work is supported by the National Science Foundation under grant number OIA-1810732 and MCB-1940655, the Kavli Foundation and the Burroughs Wellcome Fund. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Science Foundation, the Kavli Foundation or Burroughs Wellcome Fund

Rural-Urban Differences in Maternal Responses to Childhood Fever in South East Nigeria

Childhood fevers due to malaria remain a major cause of morbidity and mortality among under-five children in Nigeria. The degree of vulnerability perceived by mothers will affect their perception of the severity and threat of their child's fever and the patterns of health care use. This study was undertaken to compare maternal responses to childhood fever in urban and rural areas of Enugu, south east Nigeria.Data was collected with pre-tested interviewer-administered questionnaires from 276 and 124 urban and rural households respectively. In each household, only one woman aged 15-49 years who had lived in each of the urban and rural communities for at least one year and had at least one child less than 5 years old was interviewed. Malaria was mentioned as the commonest cause of childhood fevers. Rural mothers were more likely to recognize danger signs and symptoms than urban mothers. Rural mothers use more of informal than formal health services, and there is more home management of the fever with urban than rural mothers. Chloroquine, ACT, SP and Paracetamol are the main drugs given at home for childhood fevers, but the rural mothers were more likely to use leftover drugs from previous treatment to treat the fevers than urban mothers. The urban respondents were also more likely to use a preventive measure. Urban mothers sought actions faster than rural mothers and the total cost of treatment was also higher in urban areas.Both urban and rural mothers are aware that malaria is the major cause of childhood fevers. Although rural mothers recognize childhood fever and danger signs better than urban mothers, the urban mothers' responses to fever seem to be better than that for rural mothers. These responses and differences may be important for geographical targeting by policy makers for malaria interventions

Strengthening retinopathy of prematurity screening and treatment services in Nigeria: a case study of activities, challenges and outcomes 2017-2020.

OBJECTIVES: Retinopathy of prematurity (ROP) will become a major cause of blindness in Nigerian children unless screening and treatment services expand. This article aims to describe the collaborative activities undertaken to improve services for ROP between 2017 and 2020 as well as the outcome of these activities in Nigeria. DESIGN: Descriptive case study. SETTING: Neonatal intensive care units in Nigeria. PARTICIPANTS: Staff providing services for ROP, and 723 preterm infants screened for ROP who fulfilled screening criteria (gestational age <34 weeks or birth weight ≤2000 g, or sickness criteria). METHODS AND ANALYSIS: A WhatsApp group was initiated for Nigerian ophthalmologists and neonatologists in 2018. Members participated in a range of capacity-building, national and international collaborative activities between 2017 and 2018. A national protocol for ROP was developed for Nigeria and adopted in 2018; 1 year screening outcome data were collected and analysed. In 2019, an esurvey was used to collect service data from WhatsApp group members for 2017-2018 and to assess challenges in service provision. RESULTS: In 2017 only six of the 84 public neonatal units in Nigeria provided ROP services; this number had increased to 20 by 2018. Of the 723 babies screened in 10 units over a year, 127 (17.6%) developed any ROP; and 29 (22.8%) developed type 1 ROP. Only 13 (44.8%) babies were treated, most by intravitreal bevacizumab. The screening criteria were revised in 2020. Challenges included lack of equipment to regulate oxygen and to document and treat ROP, and lack of data systems. CONCLUSION: ROP screening coverage and quality improved after national and international collaborative efforts. To scale up and improve services, equipment for neonatal care and ROP treatment is urgently needed, as well as systems to monitor data. Ongoing advocacy is also essential

Global fertility in 204 countries and territories, 1950–2021, with forecasts to 2100: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background Accurate assessments of current and future fertility—including overall trends and changing population age structures across countries and regions—are essential to help plan for the profound social, economic, environmental, and geopolitical challenges that these changes will bring. Estimates and projections of fertility are necessary to inform policies involving resource and health-care needs, labour supply, education, gender equality, and family planning and support. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 produced up-to-date and comprehensive demographic assessments of key fertility indicators at global, regional, and national levels from 1950 to 2021 and forecast fertility metrics to 2100 based on a reference scenario and key policy-dependent alternative scenarios. Methods To estimate fertility indicators from 1950 to 2021, mixed-effects regression models and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression were used to synthesise data from 8709 country-years of vital and sample registrations, 1455 surveys and censuses, and 150 other sources, and to generate age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs) for 5-year age groups from age 10 years to 54 years. ASFRs were summed across age groups to produce estimates of total fertility rate (TFR). Livebirths were calculated by multiplying ASFR and age-specific female population, then summing across ages 10–54 years. To forecast future fertility up to 2100, our Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) forecasting model was based on projections of completed cohort fertility at age 50 years (CCF50; the average number of children born over time to females from a specified birth cohort), which yields more stable and accurate measures of fertility than directly modelling TFR. CCF50 was modelled using an ensemble approach in which three sub-models (with two, three, and four covariates variously consisting of female educational attainment, contraceptive met need, population density in habitable areas, and under-5 mortality) were given equal weights, and analyses were conducted utilising the MR-BRT (meta-regression—Bayesian, regularised, trimmed) tool. To capture time-series trends in CCF50 not explained by these covariates, we used a first-order autoregressive model on the residual term. CCF50 as a proportion of each 5-year ASFR was predicted using a linear mixed-effects model with fixed-effects covariates (female educational attainment and contraceptive met need) and random intercepts for geographical regions. Projected TFRs were then computed for each calendar year as the sum of single-year ASFRs across age groups. The reference forecast is our estimate of the most likely fertility future given the model, past fertility, forecasts of covariates, and historical relationships between covariates and fertility. We additionally produced forecasts for multiple alternative scenarios in each location: the UN Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) for education is achieved by 2030; the contraceptive met need SDG is achieved by 2030; pro-natal policies are enacted to create supportive environments for those who give birth; and the previous three scenarios combined. Uncertainty from past data inputs and model estimation was propagated throughout analyses by taking 1000 draws for past and present fertility estimates and 500 draws for future forecasts from the estimated distribution for each metric, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) given as the 2·5 and 97·5 percentiles of the draws. To evaluate the forecasting performance of our model and others, we computed skill values—a metric assessing gain in forecasting accuracy—by comparing predicted versus observed ASFRs from the past 15 years (2007–21). A positive skill metric indicates that the model being evaluated performs better than the baseline model (here, a simplified model holding 2007 values constant in the future), and a negative metric indicates that the evaluated model performs worse than baseline. Findings During the period from 1950 to 2021, global TFR more than halved, from 4·84 (95% UI 4·63–5·06) to 2·23 (2·09–2·38). Global annual livebirths peaked in 2016 at 142 million (95% UI 137–147), declining to 129 million (121–138) in 2021. Fertility rates declined in all countries and territories since 1950, with TFR remaining above 2·1—canonically considered replacement-level fertility—in 94 (46·1%) countries and territories in 2021. This included 44 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, which was the super-region with the largest share of livebirths in 2021 (29·2% [28·7–29·6]). 47 countries and territories in which lowest estimated fertility between 1950 and 2021 was below replacement experienced one or more subsequent years with higher fertility; only three of these locations rebounded above replacement levels. Future fertility rates were projected to continue to decline worldwide, reaching a global TFR of 1·83 (1·59–2·08) in 2050 and 1·59 (1·25–1·96) in 2100 under the reference scenario. The number of countries and territories with fertility rates remaining above replacement was forecast to be 49 (24·0%) in 2050 and only six (2·9%) in 2100, with three of these six countries included in the 2021 World Bank-defined low-income group, all located in the GBD super-region of sub-Saharan Africa. The proportion of livebirths occurring in sub-Saharan Africa was forecast to increase to more than half of the world's livebirths in 2100, to 41·3% (39·6–43·1) in 2050 and 54·3% (47·1–59·5) in 2100. The share of livebirths was projected to decline between 2021 and 2100 in most of the six other super-regions—decreasing, for example, in south Asia from 24·8% (23·7–25·8) in 2021 to 16·7% (14·3–19·1) in 2050 and 7·1% (4·4–10·1) in 2100—but was forecast to increase modestly in the north Africa and Middle East and high-income super-regions. Forecast estimates for the alternative combined scenario suggest that meeting SDG targets for education and contraceptive met need, as well as implementing pro-natal policies, would result in global TFRs of 1·65 (1·40–1·92) in 2050 and 1·62 (1·35–1·95) in 2100. The forecasting skill metric values for the IHME model were positive across all age groups, indicating that the model is better than the constant prediction. Interpretation Fertility is declining globally, with rates in more than half of all countries and territories in 2021 below replacement level. Trends since 2000 show considerable heterogeneity in the steepness of declines, and only a small number of countries experienced even a slight fertility rebound after their lowest observed rate, with none reaching replacement level. Additionally, the distribution of livebirths across the globe is shifting, with a greater proportion occurring in the lowest-income countries. Future fertility rates will continue to decline worldwide and will remain low even under successful implementation of pro-natal policies. These changes will have far-reaching economic and societal consequences due to ageing populations and declining workforces in higher-income countries, combined with an increasing share of livebirths among the already poorest regions of the world

Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950–2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020–21 COVID-19 pandemic period. Methods 22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution. Findings Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5–65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020–21; 5·1% [0·9–9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98–5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50–6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126–137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7–17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8–24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7–51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9–72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0–2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67–8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4–52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0–44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations. Interpretation Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic