Modelling and forecasting hourly electricity demand in West African countries

The Economic Community of West African States aims to achieve 100% electrification rates by 2030 in all member countries. To achieve this ambitious target, electricity generation capacities need to be increased significantly. Forecasting hourly electricity demand is imperative for capacity planners in optimizing investment options and ensuring reliable electricity supply. However, modelling hourly electricity demand in developing countries can be a challenge due to paucity of historical demand data and methodological frameworks that adequately capture technology transitions and urban-rural communities. In this study, we address this gap by developing an hourly electricity demand model for 14 West African countries in the year 2016 and 2030. The model takes into account electrification rates, available household appliances, occupancy patterns of household members, type of day, available daylight hours and hourly weather conditions. Annual electricity demand in non-residential sectors and electricity access rates in urban and rural households are forecasted using multiple regression analysis. We validated the developed model using actual 2016 monthly and annual electricity demand data. The results show the seasonal variations of electricity demand, with hourly electricity demand in dry seasons relatively higher than demand in wet seasons. The results also indicate that in 2030, electricity demand in the West African region is estimated to be five times its 2016 level. The methodology presented in this study can be applicable for modelling hourly electricity demand in developing countries that have scarce historical hourly demand data, a significant electricity supply-demand gap, and varying electricity access rates in urban and rural areas

Quantifying the integration of renewable energy sources in West Africa’s interconnected electricity network

The West African Power Pool (WAPP) aims to provide access to affordable electricity to all countries in the region by installing electricity interconnections between countries and creating an integrated electricity market. In this study, we develop a multi-regional economic dispatch model of the West African power system, and quantify the impact of increasing cross-border electricity trading and renewable energy sources on: electricity generation cost, carbon emission, electricity supply and rapidly growing demand. Our results indicate that increasing cross-border electricity trading significantly reduces unserved electricity demand that comes from load shedding in the region. However, in the 2030 scenario where only existing and currently planned generation plants are operational, increased cross-border electricity trading increases electricity generation from heavy fuel and diesel power plants by 16% and 8% respectively. Consequently, this results in an increase in total electricity generation cost and carbon emission in the region. In two scenarios where all fourteen countries in the region are interconnected, average marginal costs in most of the net importing and net exporting countries decrease and increase respectively, due to insufficient generation capacities in several countries. A key finding from our study is that most of the planned interconnections by WAPP could be underutilized in 2030, thus providing an opportunity to integrate unexplored hydro and solar resources in the region

An Audit of Vaginal Hysterectomy and Pelvic Floor Repair for Uterovaginal Prolapse in South‑East Nigeria

Aim: The study aimed to audit vaginal hysterectomies and pelvic floor repair performed for women with uterovaginal prolapse as a qualityassessment of the procedure. Materials and Methods: In this study conducted at the National Obstetric Fistula Center, Abakaliki, case folders of women who had vaginal  hysterectomy and pelvic floor repair for uterovaginal prolapse between June 2012 and December 2016 were reviewed. Relevant data were extracted using a pro forma and analyzed using the Statistical Package for the Social Sciences, software version 21. Results: The case records of 358 women who had a vaginal hysterectomy and pelvic floor repair were reviewed. Their mean age and parity were 53.44 ± 10.54 years and 6.92 ± 2.47, respectively. Complications were recorded in 49 (14%) of the patients, and these were intraoperative bleeding requiring blood transfusion in 15 (4.2%), postoperative intraabdominal bleeding requiring exploratory laparotomy in 7 (2%), urinary tract infection in 5 (1.4%), hospital re‑admission following vaginal bleeding in 2 (0.6%), and vaginal discharge in 13 (3.6%). The long‑term complication that was  observed following the procedure was vault prolapse in 7 (2%). There was 1 (0.3%) mortality. Conclusion: Vaginal hysterectomy with pelvic floor repair is a relatively safe procedure in women with uterovaginal prolapse. There are morbidities associated with this procedure. Keywords: Audit, pelvic floor repair, uterovaginal prolapse, vaginal hysterectomy, vault prolaps

Practice patterns for acute ischemic stroke workup: A longitudinal population‐based study

Background We examined practice patterns of inpatient testing to identify stroke etiologies and treatable risk factors for acute ischemic stroke recurrence. Methods and Results We identified stroke cases and related diagnostic testing from four 1‐year study periods (July 1993 to June 1994, 1999, 2005, and 2010) of the Greater Cincinnati/Northern Kentucky Stroke Study. Patients aged ≥18 years were included. We focused on evaluation of extracranial arteries for carotid stenosis and assessment of atrial fibrillation because randomized controlled trials supported treatment of these conditions for stroke prevention across all 4 study periods. In each study period, we also recorded stroke etiology, as determined by diagnostic testing and physician adjudication. An increasing proportion of stroke patients received assessment of both extracranial arteries and the heart over time (50%, 58%, 74%, and 78% in the 1993–1994, 1999, 2005, and 2010 periods, respectively; P &lt;0.0001 for trend), with the most dramatic individual increases in echocardiography (57%, 63%, 77%, and 83%, respectively). Concurrently, we observed a decrease in strokes of unknown etiology (47%, 48%, 41%, and 38%, respectively; P &lt;0.0001 for trend). We also found a significant increase in strokes of other known causes (32%, 25%, 45% and 59%, respectively; P &lt;0.0001 for trend). Conclusions Stroke workup for treatable causes of stroke are being used more frequently over time, and this is associated with a decrease in cryptogenic strokes. Future study of whether better determination of treatable stroke etiologies translates to a decrease in stroke recurrence at the population level will be essential. </jats:sec

Depositional Environments and Geochemical Assessments of the Bende Ameki Formation Potential as Petroleum Source Rocks in the Ogbunike Quarry, South-Eastern Nigeria

This paper focuses on investigating the paleoenvironments and hydrocarbon generation potentials of the outcropping Eocene Bende-Ameki Formation at Ogbunike quarry, Anambra Basin southeastern Nigeria, which is the Niger Delta Agbada Formation subsurface equivalent. The fine to coarse sandstones interbedded with parallel laminated grey, coaly shales, and bioturbated claystones were the dominant rock facies. The shales contain Ammobaculities, Ammontium, lenticulina, and Reophax benthic foraminifera of brackish to outer shelf environments. The rock sequence and biofacies associations indicate a fluvial, shoreface to delta environments. The marine and continental paleoenvironments are supported by the concentration and association of redox-sensitive trace elements such as vanadium and nickel of oxic to dysoxic paleoconditions. The twenty shales have a range of TOC from 0.39 - 8.81 wt% (mean 2.2 2 wt%), suggesting a good to very good source rocks. The organic richness is highest within the depth of 2 – 6 m across the quarry. Their genetic potential (S1+S2) ranges from 0.22 - 27.35 (mean 2.8 kgHC/ton) of rock, and hydrogen index from 26 to 292 mgHC/gTOC with a mean of 67.3 mgHC/gTOC. This, however, indicates dominance of Type III gas prone kerogen of terrestrial origin. The oxygenated water column characterized by the presence of benthonic scavengers may not preserve lipidenriched organic constituents of anoxic paleoenvironments which could account for the rare Type II oil and gas prone kerogen in the source rock. The thermal history inferred from the Tmax between 401°C - 424°C suggests that the source rocks are immature at the present stratigraphic level

Potency of Arati-Obd+ Organic Fertilizer on Plant-Parasitic and Free-Living Nematodes in Peppermint (Mentha Piperita L.) Field

Peppermint (Mentha piperita L.) is one of the most economical aromatic and medicinal crops useful in pharmaceutical and agro-allied industries globally. It is among the neglected crops currently receiving attention by organic agriculture experts in Nigeria. In view of the potential threat Plant-Parasitic Nematodes (PPN) pose to the crop, a study was conducted to appraise the effects of Arati-OBD+ organic fertilizer in the control of associated phytonematodes in a field in Abeokuta. Responses of Free-Living Nematodes (FLN) to the organic fertilizer were also recorded. The fertilizer was applied at 0 tha-1, 5 tha-1 or 10 tha-1, laid out in Randomized Complete Block Design with three replications. Five core soil samples were collected randomly from the rhizosphere at depth of 0-30 cm, once every month for the period of three months per plot. Soil samples per plot were bulked to form a composite sample from which 250 g sub-samples were obtained and assayed for nematode presence, type and numbers of each found. Results indicated that 11 genera of PPN were found in the organic peppermint tested. They included Helicotylenchus, Rotylenchus, Rotylenchulus, Meloidogyne, Longidorus, Aphelenchus, Radopholus, Tylenchulus, Ditylenchus, Hoplolaimus, Pratylenchus and some free-living nematodes. These nematodes varied significantly (P 0.05) across treatments. Application of Arati-OBD+ at 5 tha-1 and 10 tha-1 significantly (P 0.05) suppressed PPN compared with untreated (control) plots. Ditylenchus, Tylenchulus, Meloidogyne, Radopholus and Aphelenchus decreased by up to 100% (total control), Helicotylenchus by 73 - 50% and Rotylenchus by 60 - 33% in the treated plots while the FLN increased by as much as 18 - 47% in the soil following application 5 – 10 tha-1

EATING HABIT AND NUTRITIONAL STATUS OF A NIGERIAN PRIVATE UNIVERSITY STUDENTS

The study aimed at determining the eating habit and nutritional status of Babcock university undergraduate students. Multiple stage random technique and systematic sampling was used to select 288 respondents and a structured questionnaire was used to elicit information on the socio-demographic data and eating habit. The BMI of the respondents was determined using weight and height squared and the 24- hour dietary recall was analyzed using Total Dietary Assessment software. The relationship between eating habit and nutritional status was determined using Chi- square.&nbsp; Most of the respondents in the study were between 18-21 years (73.6 %) consisting of 45.6 % male and 53.7 % female. The respondents (54.8 %) consumed two meals in a day, 63.9 % eats in response to hunger while others eat due to different factors. Consumption of fruits and vegetables was poor as only 17.0 % and 14.9 % consumed fruits and vegetable daily. Many of the respondents consume snack regularly (85.4 %) with 33.7 % consuming in- between meals and 14.2 % snacking late in the night. Prevalence of overweight and obesity was high among the respondents as 30.4 % were overweight and 27.1 % were obese. Mean calorie intake and % RDA being 3223.04± 687.66 and 111.14 for males and 2429.45 ± 243.14 and 110.43 for females.&nbsp;&nbsp; Frequency of consumption, snacking, period of snacking, soft drink consumption and, poor fruit and vegetable consumption all had significant (P&lt; 0.05) effect on the nutritional status. &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp

Determinants of Contraceptive Options among Postpartum Women Attending Selected Health Care Facilities in Nigeria: A Cross-Sectional Study

Introduction: Differences in availability and choices of contraceptive methods among postpartum women have been found to influence their quality of life as the fertility rate is very high, and the contraceptive usage rate persistently remains low in Nigeria. Objectives: This study assessed the determinants of contraceptive options among postpartum women in Nigeria. Methods: Two Local Governments were randomly selected from the four Local Governments. Within these two local governments, five health facilities were selected. A multistage sampling technique was used to select the 240 respondents, while a structured questionnaire was used to collect data. Results: Findings from the study indicated that 81.7% of the respondents have planned to have their current baby, and about 65.4% of the women have resumed sexual activities since delivery. Of those who have resumed sexual activities, the majority, 91.1% did so 6 weeks after delivery. Some form of contraceptive usage was prominent among 59.2% of the respondents, as the most common contraceptive method used was withdrawal (24.8%). Contraceptive prevalence was slightly lower for urban respondents than rural respondents, although the relationship was not significant. Also, there was a statistically significant relationship between the current use of contraceptives and resumption of sexual activities since delivery (p = .001), resumption of menstruation (p = .001), and information received about postpartum family planning (p = 0.013). Conclusion: Findings from this study emphasize the urgent need for enhanced accessibility and availability of contraceptive methods, with a parallel emphasis on targeted interventions and effective communication strategies to promote contraceptive uptake and family planning. Addressing these determinants is vital in improving postpartum women's overall quality of life in the study area

Marital Satisfaction, Perceived Organizational Support and Job Involvement Among Employed Women in South-West Nigeria

Purpose: The purpose of this study was to identify if there were relative and combined influence of marital satisfaction, perceived organizational support on job involvement of employed women. &nbsp; Theoretical framework: Despite their demanding roles at home, employed women are expected to be at their best in the work-front.&nbsp; The study investigated the influence of marital satisfaction and perceived organizational support on job involvement among employed women. &nbsp; Design/Methodology/Approach: Two hundred employed women from South-West Nigeria chosen through proportional stratified random sampling technique served as participants. The 5-item Job Involvement Questionnaire (JIQ), a 20-item Perceived Organizational Support Questionnaire (POSQ), and Enrich Marital Satisfaction Scale (EMSS) of 16 items were the instruments used. Three hypotheses were tested at .05 level of significance with multiple regression analysis and correlation matrices. &nbsp; Findings: Results showed that marital satisfaction and organizational support combined to influence job involvement (F(2, 197) = 40.942, p &lt; .05), organizational support (β = .202; t = 14.613; p &lt; .05) and marital satisfaction (β = .134; t = 10.402; p &lt; .05) had significant relative influence on job involvement, and there were significant positive bivariate relationships among the variables of the study. &nbsp; Research, Practical &amp; Social implications: It was concluded that marital satisfaction is an important area of life for employed women and along with organizational support, could significantly impact job involvement. &nbsp; Originality/Value: Results revealed that relationships among marital satisfaction, perceived organizational support, and job involvement exist hence employees do have perceptions of organizations that may affect their attitudes, behaviours and performance

Serum Cytokine Profile (Interleukin‑6) among Women with Pelvic Organ Prolapse

Background: Pelvic organ prolapse (POP) is a common gynecological problem, particularly in the grand multipara. There are indications thatserum concentration of cytokines is higher in women with POP and even more so when there is evidence of infection. This study assesses theserum cytokine level (interleukin [IL]‑6) in women with POP. Materials and Methods: This study was conducted among 96 women with POP and a control group of 96 women. A case–control study using a quota system nonprobability sampling technique was done. The serum cytokine level was determined using a commercial standard enzyme‑linked immunosorbent assay kit. Results: The mean age and parity were 53.54 ± 10.1 years and 7.04 ± 2.33, respectively. The mean level of serum IL‑6 and standard error of mean&nbsp; was 95.79 ± 18.6, ±1.9 as against 17.92 ± 7.62, ±0.78 for control and as against &lt;20 pg/ml for the general population. P values were 0.00 and 0.08,&nbsp; respectively. The result showed that IL‑6 was significantly increased in women with POP. Conclusion: This study suggests that cytokine levels were significantly elevated in patients with POP. Keywords: Cytokines, interleukin‑6, pelvic organ prolaps