Timing of first antenatal care contact, its associated factors and state-level analysis in Nigeria : a cross-sectional assessment of compliance with the WHO guidelines

Objectives : To assess the compliance of WHO guidelines on the timeliness of antenatal care (ANC) initiation in Nigeria and its associated factors and to provide subcountry analysis of disparities in the timing of the first ANC in Nigeria. Design : Cross-sectional. Setting : Nationally representative data of most recent pregnancies between 2013 and 2018 in Nigeria. Participants : Women with pregnancies within 5 years before the study. Primary and secondary outcome measures : The outcome variable was the trimesters of the first ANC contact. Data were analysed using descriptive statistics, bivariable and multivariable multinomial logistic regression at 5% significance level. Results : Of all the 21 785 respondents, 75% had at least one ANC contact during their most recent pregnancies within the five years preceding the data collection. Among which 24% and 63% started in the first and second trimester, respectively. The proportion who started ANC in the first trimester was highest in Benue (44.5%), Lagos (41.4%) and Nasarawa (39.3%) and lowest in Zamfara (7.6%), Kano (7.4%) and Sokoto (4.8%). Respondents aged 40–49 years were 65% (adjusted relative risk ratio (aRRR: 1.65, 95 % CI: 1.10 to 2.45) more likely to initiate ANC during the first trimester of pregnancy relative to those aged 15–19 years. Although insignificant, women who participate in their healthcare utilisation were 4% (aRRR: 1.04, 95 % CI: 0.90 to 1.20) times more likely to have early initiation of ANC. Other significant factors were respondents’ and spousal educational attainment, household wealth quintiles, region of residence, ethnicity, religion and birth order. Conclusions : Only a quarter of pregnant women, initiated ANC contact during the first trimester with wider disparities across the states in Nigeria and across the background characteristics of the pregnant women. There are needs to enhance women’s autonomy in healthcare utilisation. Concerted efforts on awareness creation and empowerment for women by all stakeholders in maternal and child healthcare are antidotes for early ANC contact initiation.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Modelling the survivorship of Nigeria children in their first 10 years of life

Introduction: Several studies have attributed social demographic and environmental characteristics to differentials in children mortality rates worldwide but there is paucity of information on modelling of children survival in Nigeria. In this study we modelled children survival in Nigeria and predicted their chances of survival in their first ten years of life.Methods: We used the data from the 2013 Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey to carry out a retrospective analysis of children survival. We computed the probability of survival and mortality rates for the first five years and predicted survivals for 6th to 10th years of life using life table techniques and compared our estimates with Brass indirect techniques.Results: The probability of a child surviving up to exact age 1 and 5 were 0.9212 (95% CI: 0.919-0.923) and 0.8583 (95% CI: 0.855-0.861) respectively. About 142 of every 1000 children would not make their tenth birthday in Nigeria. We found higher survivorship trend among female children than the males with higher rates in Southern Nigeria than in the Northern parts. The estimates of probabilities of survival from age 1 to 5 from the fitted curves agreed very closely with those obtained from Brass indirect techniques as the variability was less than 2%.Conclusion: Child mortality is high in Nigeria with fewer children deaths among females. Probability of not attaining age 10 in South West is lower than chances of not marking first birthday in North West zone. Efforts must be concentrated in reversing the worrisome survival trend in Nigeria especially in the Northern parts of the country.Keywords: Survivorship, Nigeria, children mortality, Kaplan Meier, Brass Indirect method, Predictio

Age–sex differences in the global burden of lower respiratory infections and risk factors, 1990–2019 : results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.Background: The global burden of lower respiratory infections (LRIs) and corresponding risk factors in children older than 5 years and adults has not been studied as comprehensively as it has been in children younger than 5 years. We assessed the burden and trends of LRIs and risk factors across all age groups by sex, for 204 countries and territories.  Methods: In this analysis of data for the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, we used clinician-diagnosed pneumonia or bronchiolitis as our case definition for LRIs. We included International Classification of Diseases 9th edition codes 079.6, 466–469, 470.0, 480–482.8, 483.0–483.9, 484.1–484.2, 484.6–484.7, and 487–489 and International Classification of Diseases 10th edition codes A48.1, A70, B97.4–B97.6, J09–J15.8, J16–J16.9, J20–J21.9, J91.0, P23.0–P23.4, and U04–U04.9. We used the Cause of Death Ensemble modelling strategy to analyse 23 109 site-years of vital registration data, 825 site-years of sample vital registration data, 1766 site-years of verbal autopsy data, and 681 site-years of mortality surveillance data. We used DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool, to analyse age–sex-specific incidence and prevalence data identified via systematic reviews of the literature, population-based survey data, and claims and inpatient data. Additionally, we estimated age–sex-specific LRI mortality that is attributable to the independent effects of 14 risk factors.  Findings: Globally, in 2019, we estimated that there were 257 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 240–275) LRI incident episodes in males and 232 million (217–248) in females. In the same year, LRIs accounted for 1·30 million (95% UI 1·18–1·42) male deaths and 1·20 million (1·07–1·33) female deaths. Age-standardised incidence and mortality rates were 1·17 times (95% UI 1·16–1·18) and 1·31 times (95% UI 1·23–1·41) greater in males than in females in 2019. Between 1990 and 2019, LRI incidence and mortality rates declined at different rates across age groups and an increase in LRI episodes and deaths was estimated among all adult age groups, with males aged 70 years and older having the highest increase in LRI episodes (126·0% [95% UI 121·4–131·1]) and deaths (100·0% [83·4–115·9]). During the same period, LRI episodes and deaths in children younger than 15 years were estimated to have decreased, and the greatest decline was observed for LRI deaths in males younger than 5 years (–70·7% [–77·2 to –61·8]). The leading risk factors for LRI mortality varied across age groups and sex. More than half of global LRI deaths in children younger than 5 years were attributable to child wasting (population attributable fraction [PAF] 53·0% [95% UI 37·7–61·8] in males and 56·4% [40·7–65·1] in females), and more than a quarter of LRI deaths among those aged 5–14 years were attributable to household air pollution (PAF 26·0% [95% UI 16·6–35·5] for males and PAF 25·8% [16·3–35·4] for females). PAFs of male LRI deaths attributed to smoking were 20·4% (95% UI 15·4–25·2) in those aged 15–49 years, 30·5% (24·1–36·9) in those aged 50–69 years, and 21·9% (16·8–27·3) in those aged 70 years and older. PAFs of female LRI deaths attributed to household air pollution were 21·1% (95% UI 14·5–27·9) in those aged 15–49 years and 18·2% (12·5–24·5) in those aged 50–69 years. For females aged 70 years and older, the leading risk factor, ambient particulate matter, was responsible for 11·7% (95% UI 8·2–15·8) of LRI deaths.  Interpretation: The patterns and progress in reducing the burden of LRIs and key risk factors for mortality varied across age groups and sexes. The progress seen in children younger than 5 years was clearly a result of targeted interventions, such as vaccination and reduction of exposure to risk factors. Similar interventions for other age groups could contribute to the achievement of multiple Sustainable Development Goals targets, including promoting wellbeing at all ages and reducing health inequalities. Interventions, including addressing risk factors such as child wasting, smoking, ambient particulate matter pollution, and household air pollution, would prevent deaths and reduce health disparities. Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

The burden of bacterial antimicrobial resistance in the WHO European region in 2019 : a cross-country systematic analysis

Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Wellcome Trust, and Department of Health and Social Care using UK aid funding managed by the Fleming Fund.Background Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) represents one of the most crucial threats to public health and modern health care. Previous studies have identified challenges with estimating the magnitude of the problem and its downstream effect on human health and mortality. To our knowledge, this study presents the most comprehensive set of regional and country-level estimates of AMR burden in the WHO European region to date. Methods We estimated deaths and disability-adjusted life-years attributable to and associated with AMR for 23 bacterial pathogens and 88 pathogen–drug combinations for the WHO European region and its countries in 2019. Our methodological approach consisted of five broad components: the number of deaths in which infection had a role, the proportion of infectious deaths attributable to a given infectious syndrome, the proportion of infectious syndrome deaths attributable to a given pathogen, the percentage of a given pathogen resistant to an antimicrobial drug of interest, and the excess risk of mortality (or duration of an infection) associated with this resistance. These components were then used to estimate the disease burden by using two counterfactual scenarios: deaths attributable to AMR (considering an alternative scenario where infections with resistant pathogens are replaced with susceptible ones) and deaths associated with AMR (considering an alternative scenario where drug-resistant infections would not occur at all). Data were solicited from a wide array of international stakeholders; these included research hospitals, surveillance networks, and infection databases maintained by private laboratories and medical technology companies. We generated 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for final estimates as the 25th and 975th ordered values across 1000 posterior draws, and models were cross-validated for out-of-sample predictive validity. Findings We estimated 541 000 deaths (95% UI 370 000–763 000) associated with bacterial AMR and 133 000 deaths (90 100–188 000) attributable to bacterial AMR in the whole WHO European region in 2019. The largest fatal burden of AMR in the region came from bloodstream infections, with 195 000 deaths (104 000–333 000) associated with resistance, followed by intra-abdominal infections (127 000 deaths [81 900–185 000]) and respiratory infections (120 000 deaths [94 500–154 000]). Seven leading pathogens were responsible for about 457 000 deaths associated with resistance in 53 countries of this region; these pathogens were, in descending order of mortality, Escherichia coli, Staphylococcus aureus, Klebsiella pneumoniae, Pseudomonas aeruginosa, Enterococcus faecium, Streptococcus pneumoniae, and Acinetobacter baumannii. Methicillin-resistant S aureus was shown to be the leading pathogen–drug combination in 27 countries for deaths attributable to AMR, while aminopenicillin-resistant E coli predominated in 47 countries for deaths associated with AMR. Interpretation The high levels of resistance for several important bacterial pathogens and pathogen–drug combinations, together with the high mortality rates associated with these pathogens, show that AMR is a serious threat to public health in the WHO European region. Our regional and cross-country analyses open the door for strategies that can be tailored to leading pathogen–drug combinations and the available resources in a specific location. These results underscore that the most effective way to tackle AMR in this region will require targeted efforts and investments in conjunction with continuous outcome-based research endeavours.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Diversities in timing of sexual debut among Nigerian youths aged 15-24 years: parametric and non-parametric survival analysis approach.

Objective: This study examined gender, generational, cultural and social diversities in timing of sexual debut among Nigerian youths and determined factors influencing the timings. Methods: We extracted data of respondents aged 15-24 years from 2012 Nigeria nationally representative data. The outcome of interest was time at sexual debut while predictors included residence, marital status, zones, education, religion, age at first marriage. Data was censored, cox proportional hazard and generalized gamma models were used to model age at sexual debut with p=0.05. Results: The median survival time of sexual debut was 19 years, female youths were twice as likely to begin sexual activities than their male counterparts, HR=1.99, 1.87-2.11 while uneducated youths were more than twice likely to have earlier sexual debut than those with higher education, HR=2.19, 1.95-2.25. Likelihood of having had sexual debut was about 30% higher among those aged 20-24 years than those aged 15-19 years, HR=1.27, 1.19-1.36. Conclusion: Females from poor households mostly in rural areas with no education and who married early in life were more likely to have earlier sexual debut. Both teenagers and young adults are on different trajectories of sexual debut but both urgently need sexual and reproductive health education to delay sexual debut

Decomposing the educational inequalities in the factors associated with severe acute malnutrition among under-five children in low- and middle-income countries

Background: Low- and Middle-Income Countries (LMIC) have remained plagued with the burden of severe acute malnutrition (SAM). The decomposition of the educational inequalities in SAM across individual, household and neighbourhood characteristics in LMIC has not been explored. This study aims to decompose educational-related inequalities in the development of SAM among under-five children in LMIC and identify the risk factors that contribute to the inequalities. Methods: We pooled successive secondary data from the Demographic and Health Survey conducted between 2010 and 2018 in 51 LMIC. We analysed data of 532,680 under-five children nested within 55,823 neighbourhoods. Severe acute malnutrition was the outcome variable while the literacy status of mothers was the main exposure variable. The explanatory variables cut across the individual-, household- and neighbourhood-level factors of the mother-child pair. Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition method was used at p = 0.05. Results: The proportion of children whose mothers were not educated ranged from 0.1% in Armenia and Kyrgyz Republic to as much as 86.1% in Niger. The overall prevalence of SAM in the group of children whose mothers had no education was 5.8% compared with 4.2% among those whose mothers were educated, this varied within each country. Fourteen countries (Cameroon(p < 0.001), Chad(p < 0.001), Comoro(p = 0.047), Burkina Faso(p < 0.001), Ethiopia(p < 0.001), India(p < 0.001), Kenya(p < 0.001), Mozambique(p = 0.012), Namibia(p = 0.001), Nigeria(p < 0.001), Pakistan(p < 0.001), Senegal(p = 0.003), Togo(p = 0.013), and Timor Leste(p < 0.001) had statistically significant pro-illiterate inequality while no country showed statistically significant pro-literate inequality. We found significant differences in SAM prevalence across child’s age (p < 0.001), child’s sex(p < 0.001), maternal age(p = 0.001), household wealth quintile(p = 0.001), mother’s access to media(p = 0.001), birth weight(p < 0.001) and neighbourhood socioeconomic status disadvantage(p < 0.001). On the average, neighbourhood socioeconomic status disadvantage, location of residence were the most important factors in most countries. Other contributors to the explanation of educational inequalities are birth weight, maternal age and toilet type. Conclusions: SAM is prevalent in most LMIC with wide educational inequalities explained by individual, household and community-level factors. Promotion of women education should be strengthened as better education among women will close the gaps and reduce the burden of SAM generally. We recommend further studies of other determinate causes of inequalities in severe acute malnutrition in LMIC

Mind the gap : what explains the poor-non-poor inequalities in severe wasting among under-five children in low- and middle-income countries? Compositional and structural characteristics

Funding: The Consortium for Advanced Research and Training in Africa (CARTA) provided logistical support to AFF in the course of writing this paper.A good understanding of the poor-non-poor gap in childhood development of severe wasting (SW) is a must in tackling the age-long critical challenge to health outcomes of vulnerable children in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). There is a dearth of information about the factors explaining differentials in wealth inequalities in the distribution of SW in LMICs. This study is aimed at quantifying the contributions of demographic, contextual and proximate factors in explaining the poor-non-poor gap in SW in LMICs. We pooled successive secondary data from the Demographic and Health Survey conducted between 2010 and 2018 in LMICs. The final data consist of 532,680 under-five children nested within 55,823 neighbourhoods from 51 LMICs. Our outcome variable is having SW or not among under-five children. Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition was used to decipher poor-non-poor gap in the determinants of SW. Children from poor households ranged from 37.5% in Egypt to 52.1% in Myanmar. The overall prevalence of SW among children from poor households was 5.3% compared with 4.2% among those from non-poor households. Twenty-one countries had statistically significant pro-poor inequality (i.e. SW concentrated among children from poor households) while only three countries showed statistically significant pro-non-poor inequality. There were variations in the important factors responsible for the wealth inequalities across the countries. The major contributors to wealth inequalities in SW include neighbourhood socioeconomic status, media access, as well as maternal age and education. Socio-economic factors created the widest gaps in the inequalities between the children from poor and non-poor households in developing SW. A potential strategy to alleviate the burden of SW is to reduce wealth inequalities among mothers in the low- and middle-income countries through multi-sectoral and country-specific interventions with considerations for the factors identified in this study.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

The global burden of cancer attributable to risk factors, 2010–19 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.Background: Understanding the magnitude of cancer burden attributable to potentially modifiable risk factors is crucial for development of effective prevention and mitigation strategies. We analysed results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 to inform cancer control planning efforts globally.  Methods: The GBD 2019 comparative risk assessment framework was used to estimate cancer burden attributable to behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risk factors. A total of 82 risk–outcome pairs were included on the basis of the World Cancer Research Fund criteria. Estimated cancer deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) in 2019 and change in these measures between 2010 and 2019 are presented.  Findings: Globally, in 2019, the risk factors included in this analysis accounted for 4·45 million (95% uncertainty interval 4·01–4·94) deaths and 105 million (95·0–116) DALYs for both sexes combined, representing 44·4% (41·3–48·4) of all cancer deaths and 42·0% (39·1–45·6) of all DALYs. There were 2·88 million (2·60–3·18) risk-attributable cancer deaths in males (50·6% [47·8–54·1] of all male cancer deaths) and 1·58 million (1·36–1·84) risk-attributable cancer deaths in females (36·3% [32·5–41·3] of all female cancer deaths). The leading risk factors at the most detailed level globally for risk-attributable cancer deaths and DALYs in 2019 for both sexes combined were smoking, followed by alcohol use and high BMI. Risk-attributable cancer burden varied by world region and Socio-demographic Index (SDI), with smoking, unsafe sex, and alcohol use being the three leading risk factors for risk-attributable cancer DALYs in low SDI locations in 2019, whereas DALYs in high SDI locations mirrored the top three global risk factor rankings. From 2010 to 2019, global risk-attributable cancer deaths increased by 20·4% (12·6–28·4) and DALYs by 16·8% (8·8–25·0), with the greatest percentage increase in metabolic risks (34·7% [27·9–42·8] and 33·3% [25·8–42·0]).  Interpretation: The leading risk factors contributing to global cancer burden in 2019 were behavioural, whereas metabolic risk factors saw the largest increases between 2010 and 2019. Reducing exposure to these modifiable risk factors would decrease cancer mortality and DALY rates worldwide, and policies should be tailored appropriately to local cancer risk factor burden. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Trend analysis of teenage pregnancy in Nigeria (1961-2013): how effective is the contraceptive use campaign

Teenage pregnancy (TP) is a recurrent global and public health problem. It poses both social and health challenges. Considering the massive campaign on the use of modern contraceptives to prevent TP in recent decades, we assessed trends in TP in Nigeria between 1961 and 2013. Pregnancy and contraception history of 70,811 women who were at least 20 years old when the Nigerian DHS was conducted in 1990, 2003, 2008, and 2013 respectively were used for the study, and descriptive statistics, time analysis techniques and multiple logistic regression were used to analyze the data at 5% significance level. The overall prevalence of TP between 1961 and 2013 was 49.5% which fluctuated insignificantly during the studied period. The TP prevalence among women who entered adulthood in 1961 was 39.2%; it peaked in 1978 at 58.9% before its unsteady decline to 39.6% in 2012, and then rose sharply to 55.6% in 2013. We predicted TP prevalence as 49.0%, 49.9% and 51.0% in 2014, 2015 and 2016 respectively. The odds of TP were over 4 times higher in the North East and 5 times higher in the North West than in the South West. Teenagers with no education had higher odds of TP and it was higher among teenagers from the poorest households (OR=5.64, 95% CI: 5.36-5.94). Rather than reducing with the worldwide acknowledged increase in contraceptive campaigns, TP increased over the years studied. As far as TP is concerned in Nigeria, the impact of the campaign on MC use is far from being effective. To achieve the objective of fewer TPs, fewer resources should be spent on access to contraception and instead diverted to areas more likely to achieve results such as improvements in educational achievement amongst girls

Spatio-temporal analysis of childhood vaccine uptake in Nigeria : a hierarchical Bayesian Zero-inflated Poisson approach

Funding Information: The authors are grateful to ICF Macro, USA, for granting the authors the request to use the Demographic and Health Survey data. Publisher Copyright: © 2023, BioMed Central Ltd., part of Springer Nature.Peer reviewedPublisher PD