109 research outputs found
Energy Consumption, CO2 Emissions, and Tourist Arrivals to Small Island Economies Dependent on Tourism [Academic poster]
In less than two decades, the global tourism industry has overtaken the construction industry as one of the bigger polluters, accounting for up to 8% of global greenhouse gas emissions. Consequently, research into the causal link between emissions and the tourism industry have increased significantly focusing extensively on top earners from the industry. However, few studies have thoroughly assessed this relationship for small island economies dependent on tourism. Hence, this study assessed the causal relationship between CO2 emissions, real GDP per capita (RGDP) and the tourism industry. The analysis is conducted for seven tourism-dependent countries for the period 1995 to 2014 using panel VAR approach. Unit root tests confirms all variables are stationary at first difference. Our VAR granger causality/block exogeneity Wald tests results show that a unidirectional causality flowing from tourism to CO2 emission, RGDP, and energy consumption, but a bi-directional causality exists between tourism and urbanization. This implies that in countries that depend on tourism, the behavior of CO2 emission, RGDP, and energy consumption can be predicted by the volume of tourist arrivals, but not the other way around. The impulse response analysis also shows that the responses of tourism to shocks in CO2 appear negative within the 1st year, positive within the 2nd and 3rd year but revert to equilibrium in the fourth year. Finally, the reaction of tourism to shocks in energy consumption is similar to its reaction to shocks in RGDP. Tourism responds positively to shocks in urbanization throughout the periods. Consequently, this study draws important energy and tourism policy implications
An artificial recurrent neural network experiment on the future of digital innovation and sustainable economic development in the OECD.
The debate on what factors matter for sustaining economic development has been on for many decades. Although there have been disruptions in the technology space, such disruptions do not necessarily inform economic development. It is therefore imperative to examine factors affecting economic development, particularly in light of recovery from losses brought about by the COVID-19 pandemic. This study conducts machine and deep learning experiments to examine how digital innovation can inform economic development going forward. Data used includes 37 members of the organization for economic co operation and development (OECD) from 1990 to 2019. OECD members are global leaders in digital innovation and technology, hence, the choice of this economic and trade bloc. With sufficient historical data on economic growth, capital investments and labour force, in-depth forecasting and analysis are conducted using a range of techniques. While an artificial recurrent neural network experiment is conducted, results are compared with linear and polynomial linear regressions, as well as the prophet model
Microeconomic Effects of Tourism Taxes [Academic poster]
The effect of tourism taxes on choice behaviour and welfare is under-researched and the scope for applying random utility theory in a discrete a choice framework to study it will advance the knowledge on the topic. This study is motivated based on microeconomic theory of consumer behaviour and welfare, and utilizes multinomial econometric models. This study will use household survey data for OECD countries and the mixed logit regression to estimate parameters of the random utility model
An empirical assessment of electricity consumption and environmental degradation in the presence of economic complexities
To a large extent, the theories and concepts behind the effect of ecological footprint have been the paramount concern of the recent literature. Since the rising and falling of environmental degradation have been a continuous issue since the first phase of development, determinants such as economic complexity may play a critical role in achieving long-term sustainable development in the framework of environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) paradigm. Therefore, this research expands on the notion of an EKC paradigm for the world’s top ten most complex economies by considering four variables, such as real GDP per capita, electricity consumption, trade openness, and a new putative factor of environmental obstacle, the economic complexity index (ECI). This is one of the first studies to look at the impact of ECI on the ecological footprint of a specific sample from 1998 to 2017. The findings demonstrate a continuous inverted U-shaped link between real GDP per capita, the square of real GDP per capita, and ecological footprint. The EKC hypothesis is found to be valid in the long term in the examined complex economies. The findings of the panel autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) of the pooled mean group (PMG) and fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS) estimations demonstrate that in the long term, electric power usage contributed to the carbon footprints. Furthermore, the economic complexity index and trade openness increase environmental performance over time. To determine if there is causation between the variables, we employ the panel vector error correction model (VECM) framework. Particularly, the results show unidirectional causality running from electric power consumption to ecological footprint and bidirectional causal relationship between (1) economic growth and ecological footprint; (2) square of economic growth and ecological footprint; (3) economic complexity index and ecological footprint; and (4) trade openness and ecological footprint. © 2022, The Author(s)
does fiscal rule matter?
Thesis(Master) --KDI School:Master of Development Policy,2017For growth prospects, many oil dependent countries prepare their budget based on revenue from sales of crude oil. A number of studies have focused extensively on the relationship between growth and deficits, however, while controlling for other variables, the research investigated oil rent’s effect on fiscal balance in the presence of fiscal rules for oil dependent economies, and for selected net oil exporting countries, while controlling for the effects of some macroeconomic, budgetary, and political variables, such as government size, interest rate, unemployment rate, inflation rate, real GDP per capita, debt-to-GDP ratio, and control of corruption. The study relied on the strengths of past studies like those of Mika Tujula and Guido Wolswijk (2004) by establishing the specific effects of oil rents for crude oil endowed economies, as one of the main determinants of fiscal balance. This establishes the importance of oil rents, amongst other previously identified macroeconomic, budgetary, and political covariates. Thus, we have attempted to overcome the shortcomings of studies that make generalized conclusions for the main determinants of fiscal balance for all countries, without highlighting specific variables that takes a huge chunk of the effects for specific natural resource endowed economies. Given large macroeconomic panel dataset, our empirical analysis solved the possibility of endogeneity, simultaneity bias and unobserved heterogeneity of oil rents and fiscal balance by the main econometric technique i.e. using an instrumental variable approach based on Dynamic Panel estimators or the General Method of Moment (GMM). This is used in comparison with estimations from pooled OLS, LSDV fixed effects, and the IV/2SLS techniques (using each country’s share of world output as instrument). Our pre-estimation diagnostics showed that the GMM approach may not be applicable to the small sample, and we suspected that the IV/2SLS method may also be weak in testing our hypothesis for the oil dependent economies with N = 20 and T = 16, and therefore we maintained the LSDV Fixed effects estimations as our main result for this category of sample countries selected. We also utilized the Drisc/Kraay standard errors, as well as the robust standard errors, which are standard errors robust to cross-sectional dependence and heteroskedasticity of unknown forms respectively, that exists in large macroeconomic panel data where N > T. Our estimation results shows that in countries with fiscal rules, there is insignificant reaction of fiscal balance to changes in oil rents shocks, and the impact is weak. We find also that welfare spending, which was captured by the real GDP per capita, affects fiscal balance, and so does the budgetary variable, i.e. debt-to-GDP ratio, and the ability of the government to curb corruption and mismanagement of funds, which is politically motivated.1 INTRODUCTION
2 LITERATURE REVIEW
3 METHODOLOGY AND DATA
4 RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
5 CONCLUSION
6 APPENDICESOutstandingmasterpublishedFatai Festus ADEDOYIN
Modeling the nexus between coal consumption, FDI inflow and economic expansion: does industrialization matter in South Africa?
This study examines the role of industrialization in the energy-growth-FDI nexus for the case of South Africa using data over the period 1970 to 2018. The empirical exercise was conducted using Pesaran Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach. To accomplish our study objective, we analyze stationarity properties of the series using the unit root test after which we applied Bayer-Hanck (B-H) combined technique to cointegration to assess whether a long-run relationship exists among the series. Empirical results show that a 1% change in FDI account for 0.002% and 0.013% increase in economic expansion in the short- and long- run respectively. Also, a 1% increase in coal consumption influence GDP negatively by 0.083% and 0.207% in the short- and long- run respectively. Furthermore, a 1% increase in total natural resource rent positively affects GDP by 0.02% and 0.05% respectively in the short- and long- run. Industrialization, on the other hand, demonstrates a positive and significant impact on the economic growth process both in the short and long run. Industrialization contributes 0.506% and 1.274% to economic expansion both in the short and long run respectively. The causality tests suggest that a one-way causal link running from FDI to industrialization, and from industrialization to coal consumption exists. Finally, FDI inflow drives Total Natural Resource rents in South Africa. This study also gives reliable growth and energy policy proposals to policymakers applicable to countries around the globe
Smart Tourism via Digital Governance: A case for Jeju Volcanic Island and Lava Tubes
In order to establish policies that promote sustainable tourism, while selling out Korea’s local culture and products, there is a need to highlight the roles played by smart city prospects and digital governance. This paper focuses on Jeju Island and draws on its rich cultural and natural heritage for policy and to understand tourism and regional value creation by the community and other stakeholders. This paper hinges on existing (OECD, 2016) framework, which considers digital governance as a co-evolutionary process that connects public governance and public sector innovation. This paper contributes to theory and practice of tourism by highlighting Jeju’s efforts to place digital services at the core of government operations and tourism service delivery on the Island. The paper uses the case study research methodology to extend knowledge on strategies and frameworks of digital governance, and applies this framework to tourism strategies in Jeju Island. Since there are complexities embedded in using smart tourism as avenues for global tourism attractions in small regions, the research theoretically sheds light on existing trends in smart tourism, and then present policy directions and recommendations for each stakeholder
Modelling the interaction between Tourism, Energy Consumption, Pollutant Emissions and Urbanization: Renewed Evidence from Panel VAR.
In less than two decades, the global tourism industry has overtaken the construction industry as one of the bigger polluters, accounting for up to 8% of global greenhouse gas emissions as reported by the United National World Trade Organization (UNWTO, 2018). This position resonates the consensus of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Consequently, research into the causal link between emissions and the tourism industry has increased significantly focusing extensively on top earners from the industry. However, few studies have thoroughly assessed this relationship for small island economies dependent on tourism. Hence, this study assessed the causal relationship between CO2 emissions, real GDP per capita (RGDP) and the tourism industry. The analysis is conducted for seven tourism-dependent countries for the period 1995 to 2014 using a panel VAR approach, with support from FMOLS and PMG-ARDL models. Unit root tests confirm all variables are stationary at first difference. Our VAR Granger causality/block exogeneity Wald tests results show that a unidirectional causality flowing from tourism to CO2 emission, RGDP, and energy consumption, but a bi-directional causality exists between tourism and urbanization. This implies that in countries that depend on tourism, the behaviour of CO 2 emission, RGDP, and energy consumption can be predicted by the volume of tourist arrivals, but not the other way around. The impulse response analysis also shows that the responses of tourism to shocks in CO 2 appear negative within the 1 st year, positive within the 2nd and 3rd year but revert to equilibrium in the 4th year. Finally, the reaction of tourism to shocks in energy consumption is similar to its reaction to shocks in RGDP. Tourism responds positively to shocks in urbanization throughout the periods. These outcomes where resonated by the Dumitrescu and Hurlin causality analysis where the growth induced-tourism hypothesis is validated as well as feedback causality observed between tourism and pollutant emission, urbanization and pollutant emission in the blocs over the sampled period. Consequently, this study draws pertinent energy and tourism policy implications for sustainable tourism on the panel over their growth trajectory without compromise for a green environment.Keywords: Energy Consumption; GDP; Tourism; Impulse response; Variance decomposition
Does Globalization in Turkey Induce Increased Energy Consumption: Insights into its Environmental Pros and Cons
Globalization is the paradigm shift to a more integrated world economy broadly shaping economies and societies around the globe. The wave of globalization is much more eminent on its impact on increased energy demand, knowledge and technology transfer, trade and financial capital flows. The present study focuses on Turkey a fast-emerging economy that is no exception to the wave of globalization. This current study explores the dynamics between ecological footprints, energy consumption and real income level for the case of Turkey in a carbon-income function while accounting for other co-variate like globalization to avoid omitted variable bias. The study data spans from 1970-2017 on an annual frequency basis. The Stationarity properties of the outlined variables were investigated. Subsequently, the equilibrium relationship between the variables is confirmed by the battery of recent robust estimation techniques. while to detect the causality of direction among the variables the Modified Wald test causality test is utilized. This study reveals that an increase in energy consumption in Turkey reduces environmental pollution by a magnitude of 0.37% in the short run and 0.43% long run. While an increase in economic expansion dampens the quality of the environment 0.42% and 0.72% on both a short and long-run basis. This is indicative given that Turkey is more energy conscious and energy-efficient while a positive statistically significant relationship is observed between real income level and ecological footprint and globalization index. The causality analysis also supports the growth-induced energy consumption hypothesis. The study further offers policy direction for the energy sector in Turkey in the face of global interconnectedness
Testing the transport-induced environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis: The role of air and railway transport
The airline and railway industry contribute immensely to economic development, however, its role in environmental pollution requires attention. Here, this study builds on the theoretical pedigree of the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis to explore the contribution of the air and railway transportation sector and urbanization to the emission-growth argument. We utilized annual time-frequency data from 1995 to 2014 for a panel of top 10 air passenger carrier countries using robust panel estimators that control for cross-section dependence. The empirical analysis shows a positive significant relationship between emissions and economic growth, thus, economic growth is emission-embedded with limited green growth. The existence of the EKC phenomenon is affirmed for the investigated blocs — where economic growth is prioritized over environmental quality. Additional, while air transportation drives pollution, railway transportation and urbanization decline emission over the sampled period. The results underscore the need for clean and environmentally friendly energy sources for air sector operations
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