A Stochastic Analysis of Proposals for the New US Farm Bill

Most of the large scale modeling systems used in the analysis of agricultural policies produce deterministic projections. In reality, however, the agricultural sector is subject to a high degree of uncertainty as a result of fluctuations in exogenous factors such as the weather or macroeconomic variation. A stochastic approach can provide additional information to policy makers regarding the implications of this uncertainty, through the use of stochastically generated projections. This paper also shows how deterministic analysis may result in systematic errors in the projection of some variables. As an applied example, the FAPRI model of the US agricultural sector is simulated stochastically to analyse the impact of proposals for the new US farm bill.Stochastic simulation, US Farm Bill, policy analysis, Agricultural and Food Policy,

Net Farm Income Impacts of Alternative Risk Management Bills

The impacts of the bills are measured against the FAPRI January 1999 baseline which may be found at http://hdl.handle.net/10355/3318At the request of Senator Richard Lugar, Chairman of the Committee on Agriculture, Nutrition and Forestry, FAPRI has analyzed impacts of two alternative risk management proposals. The first proposal is the Farmers' Risk Management Act of 1999, sponsored by Senator Lugar (IN) and co-sponsored by Senators McConnell (KY), Fitzgerald (IL), and Helms (NC). The second proposal is the Risk Management for the 21st Century Act, put forth by Senator Roberts (KS) and co-sponsored by Senator Kerrey (NE) and others

Analysis of Risk Management Proposals

An earlier analysis which concentrated on the aggregate net farm income and government outlay impacts may be found at http://hdl.handle.net/10355/3318At the request of several members of the Committee on Agriculture, Nutrition, and Forestry of the Senate, FAPRI has continued to analyze the impacts of two alternative risk management proposals. The proposals are the Farmers' Risk Management Act of 1999 (S. 1666) and the Risk Management for the 21st Century Act (S. 1580)

Effect of Summer Grazing on Crude Protein and Digestibility of Winter Diets of Cattle in the Nebraska Sandhills

Twenty-one pastures (three pastures/ treatment) were used in a two-year study to determine the effects of summer grazing on winter diet quality of Sandhills range. Summer grazing treatments consisted of no summer grazing (control) and June or July grazing at three stocking rates. After summer grazing, pastures were then diet sampled using esophageally fistulated cows in November, January and March following summer treatments. Year and sampling date had a significant effect on CP and IVDMD of winter range diets, whereas summer grazing treatments did not have a large impact

Homologous Expression of a Subcomplex of Pyrococcus furiosus Hydrogenase that Interacts with Pyruvate Ferredoxin Oxidoreductase

Hydrogen gas is an attractive alternative fuel as it is carbon neutral and has higher energy content per unit mass than fossil fuels. The biological enzyme responsible for utilizing molecular hydrogen is hydrogenase, a heteromeric metalloenzyme requiring a complex maturation process to assemble its O2-sensitive dinuclear-catalytic site containing nickel and iron atoms. To facilitate their utility in applied processes, it is essential that tools are available to engineer hydrogenases to tailor catalytic activity and electron carrier specificity, and decrease oxygen sensitivity using standard molecular biology techniques. As a model system we are using hydrogen-producing Pyrococcus furiosus, which grows optimally at 100°C. We have taken advantage of a recently developed genetic system that allows markerless chromosomal integrations via homologous recombination. We have combined a new gene marker system with a highly-expressed constitutive promoter to enable high-level homologous expression of an engineered form of the cytoplasmic NADP-dependent hydrogenase (SHI) of P. furiosus. In a step towards obtaining ‘minimal’ hydrogenases, we have successfully produced the heterodimeric form of SHI that contains only two of the four subunits found in the native heterotetrameric enzyme. The heterodimeric form is highly active (150 units mg−1 in H2 production using the artificial electron donor methyl viologen) and thermostable (t1/2 ∼0.5 hour at 90°C). Moreover, the heterodimer does not use NADPH and instead can directly utilize reductant supplied by pyruvate ferredoxin oxidoreductase from P. furiosus. The SHI heterodimer and POR therefore represent a two-enzyme system that oxidizes pyruvate and produces H2 in vitro without the need for an intermediate electron carrier

Avoidant Coping and Self-efficacy Mediate Relationships between Perceived Social Constraints and Symptoms among Long-term Breast Cancer Survivors

Objective Many breast cancer survivors feel constrained in discussing their cancer experience with others. Limited evidence suggests that social constraints (e.g., avoidance and criticism) from loved ones may negatively impact breast cancer survivors' global health, but research has yet to examine relationships between social constraints and common physical symptoms. Informed by social cognitive processing theory, this study examined whether perceived social constraints from partners and healthcare providers (HCPs) were associated with fatigue, sleep disturbance, and attentional functioning among long-term breast cancer survivors (N = 1052). In addition, avoidant coping and self-efficacy for symptom management were examined as potential mediators of these relationships. Methods Long-term breast cancer survivors (mean years since diagnosis = 6) completed questionnaires assessing social constraints from partners and HCPs, avoidant coping, self-efficacy for symptom management, and symptoms (i.e., fatigue, sleep disturbance, and attentional functioning). Structural equation modeling was used to evaluate the hypothesized relationships among variables in two models: one focused on social constraints from partners and one focused on social constraints from HCPs. Results Both models demonstrated good fit. Consistent with theory and prior research, greater social constraints from both partners and HCPs were associated with greater symptom burden (i.e., greater fatigue and sleep disturbance, poorer attentional functioning). In addition, all relationships were mediated by avoidant coping and self-efficacy for symptom management. Conclusions Findings are consistent with social cognitive processing theory and suggest that symptom management interventions may be enhanced by addressing the impact of social constraints from survivors' partners and HCPs on their coping and self-efficacy

The Cancer Loneliness Scale and Cancer-related Negative Social Expectations Scale: development and validation

PURPOSE: Loneliness is a known risk factor for poor mental and physical health outcomes and quality of life in the general population, and preliminary research suggests that loneliness is linked to poorer health outcomes in cancer patients as well. Various aspects of the cancer experience contribute to patients feeling alone and misunderstood. Furthermore, loneliness theory suggests that negative social expectations, which may specifically relate to the cancer experience, precipitate and sustain loneliness. Cancer-specific tools are needed to assess key constructs of this theory. In the current study, we developed and tested measures of (1) loneliness attributed to cancer (i.e., cancer-related loneliness) and (2) negative social expectations related to cancer. METHODS: First, we developed the items for the measures based on theory, prior research, and expert feedback. Next, we assessed the measures' psychometric properties (i.e., internal consistency and construct validity) in a diverse sample of cancer patients. RESULTS: The final products included a 7-item unidimensional Cancer Loneliness Scale and a 5-item unidimensional Cancer-related Negative Social Expectations Scale. Evidence of excellent reliability and validity was found for both measures. CONCLUSIONS: The resulting measures have both clinical and research utility