China’s new growth pattern and its effect on energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions

China’s economic transformation and new growth pattern have significant implications for energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions. Using an extended version of a large computable general equilibrium model of China, we explore alternative futures for the Chinese economy and its energy needs over the period from 2015 to 2030. The simulation results show that encouraging household consumption and accelerating economic transition from investment-led to service-led growth will boost China’s economic growth. Capping coal consumption will improve China’s energy consumption structure and reduce greenhouse gas emissions significantly. The simulation exercises imply that, with a well-designed policy, the Chinese government can meet the challenges of strong economic growth, lower carbon emissions, environmental benefits, and energy security. Moreover, the Chinese government’s goal of peaking carbon emissions at 2030 is achievable. Keywords: Dynamic computable general equilibrium model, Economic transition, Energy demand, Greenhouse gas emissions, Economic effect

Paediatric radiology seen from Africa. Part I: providing diagnostic imaging to a young population

Article approval pendingPaediatric radiology requires dedicated equipment, specific precautions related to ionising radiation, and specialist knowledge. Developing countries face difficulties in providing adequate imaging services for children. In many African countries, children represent an increasing proportion of the population, and additional challenges follow from extreme living conditions, poverty, lack of parental care, and exposure to tuberculosis, HIV, pneumonia, diarrhoea and violent trauma. Imaging plays a critical role in the treatment of these children, but is expensive and difficult to provide. The World Health Organisation initiatives, of which the World Health Imaging System for Radiography (WHIS-RAD) unit is one result, needs to expand into other areas such as the provision of maintenance servicing. New initiatives by groups such as Rotary and the World Health Imaging Alliance to install WHIS-RAD units in developing countries and provide digital solutions, need support. Paediatric radiologists are needed to offer their services for reporting, consultation and quality assurance for free by way of teleradiology. Societies for paediatric radiology are needed to focus on providing a volunteer teleradiology reporting group, information on child safety for basic imaging, guidelines for investigations specific to the disease spectrum, and solutions for optimising imaging in children

Factors associated with dropout during recruitment and follow-up periods of a mHealth-based randomized controlled trial for Mobile.Net to encourage treatment adherence for people with serious mental health problems

Background: Clinical trials are the gold standard of evidence-based practice. Still many papers inadequately report methodology in randomized controlled trials (RCTs), particularly for mHealth interventions for people with serious mental health problems. To ensure robust enough evidence, it is important to understand which study phases are the most vulnerable in the field of mental health care. Objective: We mapped the recruitment and the trial follow-up periods of participants to provide a picture of the dropout predictors from a mHealth-based trial. As an example, we used a mHealth-based multicenter RCT, titled “Mobile.Net,” targeted at people with serious mental health problems. Methods: Recruitment and follow-up processes of the Mobile.Net trial were monitored and analyzed. Recruitment outcomes were recorded as screened, eligible, consent not asked, refused, and enrolled. Patient engagement was recorded as follow-up outcomes: (1) attrition during short message service (SMS) text message intervention and (2) attrition during the 12-month follow-up period. Multiple regression analysis was used to identify which demographic factors were related to recruitment and retention. Results: We recruited 1139 patients during a 15-month period. Of 11,530 people screened, 36.31% (n=4186) were eligible. This eligible group tended to be significantly younger (mean 39.2, SD 13.2 years, P<.001) and more often women (2103/4181, 50.30%) than those who were not eligible (age: mean 43.7, SD 14.6 years; women: 3633/6514, 55.78%). At the point when potential participants were asked to give consent, a further 2278 refused. Those who refused were a little older (mean 40.2, SD 13.9 years) than those who agreed to participate (mean 38.3, SD 12.5 years; t1842=3.2, P<.001). We measured the outcomes after 12 months of the SMS text message intervention. Attrition from the SMS text message intervention was 4.8% (27/563). The patient dropout rate after 12 months was 0.36% (4/1123), as discovered from the register data. In all, 3.12% (35/1123) of the participants withdrew from the trial. However, dropout rates from the patient survey (either by paper or telephone interview) were 52.45% (589/1123) and 27.8% (155/558), respectively. Almost all participants (536/563, 95.2%) tolerated the intervention, but those who discontinued were more often women (21/27, 78%; P=.009). Finally, participants’ age (P<.001), gender (P<.001), vocational education (P=.04), and employment status (P<.001) seemed to predict their risk of dropping out from the postal survey. Conclusions: Patient recruitment and engagement in the 12-month follow-up conducted with a postal survey were the most vulnerable phases in the SMS text message-based trial. People with serious mental health problems may need extra support during the recruitment process and in engaging them in SMS text message-based trials to ensure robust enough evidence for mental health care

Short text messages to encourage adherence to medication and follow-up for people with psychosis (Mobile.Net): randomized controlled trial in Finland

Background: A text messaging service (short message service [SMS]) has the potential to target large groups of people with long-term illnesses such as serious mental disorders, who may have difficulty with treatment adherence. Robust research on the impact of mobile technology interventions for these patients remains scarce. Objective: The main objective of our study was to investigate the impact of individually tailored short text messages on the rate of psychiatric hospital readmissions, health care service use, and clinical outcomes. In addition, we analyzed treatment costs. Methods: Between September 2011 and November 2012, we randomly assigned 1139 people to a tailored text message intervention (n=569) or usual care (n=570). Participants received semiautomated text messages for up to 12 months or usual care. The primary outcome, based on routinely collected health register data, was patient readmission into a psychiatric hospital during a 12-month follow-up period. Secondary outcomes were related to other service use, coercion, medication, adverse events, satisfaction, social functioning, quality of life, and economic factors (cost analysis). Results: There was 98.24% (1119/1139) follow-up at 12 months. Tailored mobile telephone text messages did not reduce the rate of hospital admissions (242/563, 43.0% of the SMS group vs 216/556, 38.8% of the control group; relative risk 1.11; 95% CI 0.92-1.33; P=.28), time between hospitalizations (mean difference 7.0 days 95% CI –8.0 to 24.0; P=.37), time spent in a psychiatric hospital during the year (mean difference 2.0 days 95% CI –2.0 to 7.0; P=.35), or other service outcomes. People who received text messages were less disabled, based on Global Assessment Scale scores at the time of their readmission, than those who did not receive text messages (odds ratio 0.68; 95% CI 0.47-0.97; P=.04). The costs of treatment were higher for people in the SMS group than in the control group (mean €10,103 vs €9210, respectively, P<.001). Conclusions: High-grade routinely collected data can provide clear outcomes for pragmatic randomized trials. SMS messaging tailored with the input of each individual patient did not decrease the rate of psychiatric hospital visits after the 12 months of follow-up. Although there may have been other, more subtle effects, the results of these were not evident in outcomes of agreed importance to clinicians, policymakers, and patients and their families

Correcting pervasive errors in RNA crystallography through enumerative structure prediction

Three-dimensional RNA models fitted into crystallographic density maps exhibit pervasive conformational ambiguities, geometric errors and steric clashes. To address these problems, we present enumerative real-space refinement assisted by electron density under Rosetta (ERRASER), coupled to Python-based hierarchical environment for integrated 'xtallography' (PHENIX) diffraction-based refinement. On 24 data sets, ERRASER automatically corrects the majority of MolProbity-assessed errors, improves the average Rfree factor, resolves functionally important discrepancies in noncanonical structure and refines low-resolution models to better match higher-resolution models

Moving from information and collaboration to action: report from the 3rd International Dog Health Workshop, Paris in April 2017

Abstract Background Breed-related health problems in dogs have received increased focus over the last decade. Responsibility for causing and/or solving these problems has been variously directed towards dog breeders and kennel clubs, the veterinary profession, welfare scientists, owners, regulators, insurance companies and the media. In reality, all these stakeholders are likely to share some responsibility and optimal progress on resolving these challenges requires all key stakeholders to work together. The International Partnership for Dogs (IPFD), together with an alternating host organization, holds biennial meetings called the International Dog Health Workshops (IDHW). The Société Centrale Canine (French Kennel Club) hosted the 3rd IDHW, in Paris, in April, 2017. These meetings bring together a wide range of stakeholders in dog health, science and welfare to improve international sharing of information and resources, to provide a forum for ongoing collaboration, and to identify specific needs and actions to improve health, well-being and welfare in dogs. Results The workshop included 140 participants from 23 countries and was structured around six important issues facing those who work to improve dog health. These included individualized breed-specific strategies for health and breeding, extreme conformations, education and communication in relation to antimicrobial resistance, behavior and welfare, genetic testing and population-based evidence. A number of exciting actions were agreed during the meeting. These included setting up working groups to create tools to help breed clubs accelerate the implementation of breed-health strategies, review aspects of extreme conformation and share useful information on behavior. The meeting also heralded the development of an online resource of relevant information describing quality measures for DNA testing. A demand for more and better data and evidence was a recurring message stressed across all themes. Conclusions The meeting confirmed the benefits from inclusion of a diverse range of stakeholders who all play relevant and collaborative parts to improve future canine health. Firm actions were set for progress towards improving breed-related welfare. The next international workshop will be in the UK in 2019 and will be organized by the UK Kennel Club

Redox linked flavin sites in extracellular decaheme proteins involved in microbe-mineral electron transfer

Extracellular microbe-mineral electron transfer is a major driving force for the oxidation of organic carbon in many subsurface environments. Extracellular multi-heme cytochromes of the Shewenella genus play a major role in this process but the mechanism of electron exchange at the interface between cytochrome and acceptor is widely debated. The 1.8 Å x-ray crystal structure of the decaheme MtrC revealed a highly conserved CX8C disulfide that, when substituted for AX8A, severely compromised the ability of S. oneidensis to grow under aerobic conditions. Reductive cleavage of the disulfide in the presence of flavin mononucleotide (FMN) resulted in the reversible formation of a stable flavocytochrome. Similar results were also observed with other decaheme cytochromes, OmcA, MtrF and UndA. The data suggest that these decaheme cytochromes can transition between highly reactive flavocytochromes or less reactive cytochromes, and that this transition is controlled by a redox active disulfide that responds to the presence of oxygen

The politics of the teaching of reading

Historically, political debates have broken out over how to teach reading in primary schools and infant classrooms. These debates and “reading wars” have often resulted from public concerns and media reportage of a fall in reading standards. They also reflect the importance placed on learning to read by parents, teachers, employers, and politicians. Public and media-driven controversies over the teaching of reading have resulted in intense public and professional debates over which specific methods and materials to use with beginning readers and with children who have reading difficulties. Recently, such debates have led to a renewed emphasis on reading proficiency and “standardized” approaches to teaching reading and engaging with literacy. The universal acceptance of the importance of learning to read has also led to vested interests in specific methods, reading programmes, and early literacy assessments amongst professional, business, commercial, and parental lobbying groups. This article traces these debates and the resulting growing support for a quantitative reductionist approach to early-reading programmes

Population screening for hereditary haemochromatosis in Australia: Construction and validation of a state-transition cost-effectiveness model

INTRODUCTION: HFE-associated haemochromatosis, the most common monogenic disorder amongst populations of northern European ancestry, is characterised by iron overload. Excess iron is stored in parenchymal tissues, leading to morbidity and mortality. Population screening programmes are likely to improve early diagnosis, thereby decreasing associated disease. Our aim was to develop and validate a health economics model of screening using utilities and costs from a haemochromatosis cohort. METHODS: A state-transition model was developed with Markov states based on disease severity. Australian males (aged 30 years) and females (aged 45 years) of northern European ancestry were the target populations. The screening strategy was the status quo approach in Australia; the model was run over a lifetime horizon. Costs were estimated from the government perspective and reported in 2015 Australian dollars ($A); costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) were discounted at 5$A22,737 (3670-85,793) for males and $A13,840 (1335-67,377) for females. Sensitivity analyses revealed discount rates and prevalence had the greatest impacts on outcomes. CONCLUSION: We have developed a transparent, validated health economics model of C282Y homozygote haemochromatosis. The model will be useful to decision makers to identify cost-effective screening strategies

The economic impacts of UK fiscal policies and their spillover effects on the energy system

The energy system and the economy are inextricably intertwined. Whilst this interdependence is, of course, widely recognized, it has not featured prominently in assessing the likely impact of economic policies. In principle, fiscal policies are likely to have an influence on key elements of the energy system, the neglect of which may lead to inefficiencies in the design of appropriate energy and economic policies. The importance of this in practice depends on the strength of the spillover effects from fiscal policy instruments to energy policy goals. This is the focus of this chapter. We employ a multi-sectoral computable general equilibrium approach for the United Kingdom that allows us to track the impact of key fiscal policy interventions on goals of economic and energy policies. We explore whether it is possible to stimulate the economy through fiscal policy without generating an adverse impact on the energy system. Overall, our results suggest that it is unlikely that an increase in current public spending or a fall in the income tax rate will generate a simultaneous increase in GDP and fall in emissions in the United Kingdom context. Nonetheless, there are undoubted differential spillover effects on key components of the energy system from tax and public spending interventions that may prove capable of being exploited through the coordination of fiscal and energy policies. Even if it seems doubtful that fiscal policies would be formulated with a view to improved coordination with energy policies, policymakers can benefit from knowledge of the likely direction and scale of fiscal spillover effects to key elements of the energy system, since this reveals, for example, the extent of any energy policy adjustment that would be required to maintain a given level of emissions