Sea ice studies in the Weddell Sea aboard USCGC Polar Sea

Journal ArticleOur purpose was to investigate several of the characteristics of Weddell Sea pack ice that may affect the relative roles of dynamics and thermodynamics of pack ice development in this region. The total pack ice production and the movement of pack ice from its source area in the Weddell Sea is particularly important in modifying ocean-atmosphere exchange processes. These modifications affect both climate and water mass development in and beyond the Weddell Sea embayment. The pack ice area affected by Weddell Sea processes is 8-10 million square kilometers (Ackley 1979a), about one-third of the total around Antarctica at maximum extent

Modeling of anisotropic electromagnetic reflection from sea ice

Journal ArticleThe contribution of brine layers to observed reflective anisotropy of sea ice at 100 MHz is quantitatively assessed, and a theoretical explanation for observed reflective anisotropy is proposed in terms of anisotropic electric flux penetration into the brine layers. The sea ice is assumed to be a stratified dielectric consisting of pure ice containing ellipsoidal conducting inclusions (brine layers) uniformly aligned with their long axes perpendicular to the preferred crystallographic c axis direction. The asymmetrical geometry of the brine layers is shown to produce an anisotropy in the complex dielectric constant of sea ice

Morphological evidence for a sea-ice origin for Elysium Planitia platy terrain

Abstract not available

Hamiltonian analysis of subcritical stochastic epidemic dynamics

We extend a technique of approximation of the long-term behavior of a supercritical stochastic epidemic model, using the WKB approximation and a Hamiltonian phase space, to the subcritical case. The limiting behavior of the model and approximation are qualitatively different in the subcritical case, requiring a novel analysis of the limiting behavior of the Hamiltonian system away from its deterministic subsystem. This yields a novel, general technique of approximation of the quasistationary distribution of stochastic epidemic and birth-death models, and may lead to techniques for analysis of these models beyond the quasistationary distribution. For a classic SIS model, the approximation found for the quasistationary distribution is very similar to published approximations but not identical. For a birth-death process without depletion of susceptibles, the approximation is exact. Dynamics on the phase plane similar to those predicted by the Hamiltonian analysis are demonstrated in cross-sectional data from trachoma treatment trials in Ethiopia, in which declining prevalences are consistent with subcritical epidemic dynamics

A PROPOSED RAPID METHOD FOR MEASURING AREA METHANE EMISSIONS: AN EXPLORATORY APPLICATION IN MANHATTAN, NEW YORK, USA

Methane is an important greenhouse gas, but methane emissions are poorly understood, in large part due to limited atmospheric methane data on local scales. Local and regional scale methane emissions data are urgently needed to improve modeling of future climate change, and support energy plans and policies to minimize future climate impacts of socio-economically needed energy utilization. There have been numerous recent reports on local ground-level ambient air methane surveys that have provided more thorough data on methane sources in some urban areas. Such surveys generate substantial amounts of high quality ground-level methane concentration data, usually with reliable time and geo-referenced location data. We examined the potential usefulness of such data sets for generation of estimates of methane emissions for surveyed areas. Our efforts focused on development of a generally applicable, relatively simple mass-balance approach to estimate area methane emissions from mobile, ground level ambient air methane concentration and local weather data. The data examined were collected in Manhattan, New York, USA over 5 days in late 2012. Using the ratio of methane emissions (μg m-2s-1) to natural gas usage (μg m-2s-1), the resulting methane emissions estimates for Manhattan were compared to 5 other cities (emissions reported by other investigators using other methods). The emissions estimates for Manhattan derived from ground-level mobile methane surveys were within the range of the estimates for the other cities. In addition, the emissions rates reported for the cities indicate natural gas should not be considered more climate-beneficial than other fossil fuels

Short-term leprosy forecasting from an expert opinion survey.

We conducted an expert survey of leprosy (Hansen's Disease) and neglected tropical disease experts in February 2016. Experts were asked to forecast the next year of reported cases for the world, for the top three countries, and for selected states and territories of India. A total of 103 respondents answered at least one forecasting question. We elicited lower and upper confidence bounds. Comparing these results to regression and exponential smoothing, we found no evidence that any forecasting method outperformed the others. We found evidence that experts who believed it was more likely to achieve global interruption of transmission goals and disability reduction goals had higher error scores for India and Indonesia, but lower for Brazil. Even for a disease whose epidemiology changes on a slow time scale, forecasting exercises such as we conducted are simple and practical. We believe they can be used on a routine basis in public health

Search for continuous gravitational waves from 20 accreting millisecond x-ray pulsars in O3 LIGO data

Results are presented of searches for continuous gravitational waves from 20 accreting millisecond x-ray pulsars with accurately measured spin frequencies and orbital parameters, using data from the third observing run of the Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo detectors. The search algorithm uses a hidden Markov model, where the transition probabilities allow the frequency to wander according to an unbiased random walk, while the J-statistic maximum-likelihood matched filter tracks the binary orbital phase. Three narrow subbands are searched for each target, centered on harmonics of the measured spin frequency. The search yields 16 candidates, consistent with a false alarm probability of 30% per subband and target searched. These candidates, along with one candidate from an additional target-of-opportunity search done for SAX J1808.4 - 3658, which was in outburst during one month of the observing run, cannot be confidently associated with a known noise source. Additional follow-up does not provide convincing evidence that any are a true astrophysical signal. When all candidates are assumed nonastrophysical, upper limits are set on the maximum wave strain detectable at 95% confidence, h(0)(95%). The strictest constraint is h(0)(95%) = 4.7 x 10(-26) from IGR J17062 - 6143. Constraints on the detectable wave strain from each target lead to constraints on neutron star ellipticity and r-mode amplitude, the strictest of which are epsilon(95%) = 3.1 x 10(-7) and alpha(95%) = 1.8 x 10(-5) respectively. This analysis is the most comprehensive and sensitive search of continuous gravitational waves from accreting millisecond x-ray pulsars to date

Comparing Probabilistic Models for Melodic Sequences

Modelling the real world complexity of music is a challenge for machine learning. We address the task of modeling melodic sequences from the same music genre. We perform a comparative analysis of two probabilistic models; a Dirichlet Variable Length Markov Model (Dirichlet-VMM) and a Time Convolutional Restricted Boltzmann Machine (TC-RBM). We show that the TC-RBM learns descriptive music features, such as underlying chords and typical melody transitions and dynamics. We assess the models for future prediction and compare their performance to a VMM, which is the current state of the art in melody generation. We show that both models perform significantly better than the VMM, with the Dirichlet-VMM marginally outperforming the TC-RBM. Finally, we evaluate the short order statistics of the models, using the Kullback-Leibler divergence between test sequences and model samples, and show that our proposed methods match the statistics of the music genre significantly better than the VMM.Comment: in Proceedings of the ECML-PKDD 2011. Lecture Notes in Computer Science, vol. 6913, pp. 289-304. Springer (2011

Continuously tunable modulation scheme for precision control of optical cavities with variable detuning

We present a scheme for locking optical cavities with arbitrary detuning by many linewidths from resonance using an electro-optic modulator that can provide arbitrary ratios of amplitude-to-phase modulation. We demonstrate our scheme on a Fabry–Perot cavity, and show that a well-behaved linear error signal can be obtained by demodulating the reflected light from a cavity that is detuned by several linewidths.National Science Foundation (U.S.) (PHY-0757058

Searches for Gravitational Waves from Known Pulsars at Two Harmonics in 2015–2017 LIGO Data

We present a search for gravitational waves from 222 pulsars with rotation frequencies ≳10 Hz. We use advanced LIGO data from its first and second observing runs spanning 2015–2017, which provides the highest-sensitivity gravitational-wave data so far obtained. In this search we target emission from both the l = m = 2 mass quadrupole mode, with a frequency at twice that of the pulsar's rotation, and the l = 2, m = 1 mode, with a frequency at the pulsar rotation frequency. The search finds no evidence for gravitational-wave emission from any pulsar at either frequency. For the l = m = 2 mode search, we provide updated upper limits on the gravitational-wave amplitude, mass quadrupole moment, and fiducial ellipticity for 167 pulsars, and the first such limits for a further 55. For 20 young pulsars these results give limits that are below those inferred from the pulsars' spin-down. For the Crab and Vela pulsars our results constrain gravitational-wave emission to account for less than 0.017% and 0.18% of the spin-down luminosity, respectively. For the recycled millisecond pulsar J0711−6830 our limits are only a factor of 1.3 above the spin-down limit, assuming the canonical value of 1038 kg m2 for the star's moment of inertia, and imply a gravitational-wave-derived upper limit on the star's ellipticity of 1.2 × 10−8. We also place new limits on the emission amplitude at the rotation frequency of the pulsars